Does max pain predict where a stock closes on expiration day?
On our record it lands within 1% of the expiration-day close on 43% of 709 settled expirations since July 28, 2026, while the previous day's close, a forecast of no change, landed that near on 52% of 705.
Max pain is the strike at which open option contracts would pay out the least on expiration. The theory says the price drifts toward it. The test is simple: take the final max pain reading before expiration and compare it with where the stock actually closed that day.
A forecast earns its keep only if it beats doing nothing. The previous close is that do-nothing forecast, so the ledger scores both on the same settlements. The ledger page prints the intervals around each share, which say whether a gap between them is larger than chance.
The figures, with their dates
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max pain within 1% of the close | 43% of 709 | 2026-11-02 | Our max pain ledger: daily snapshots of option open interest, settled against the expiration-day close |
| Previous close within 1% of the close | 52% of 705 | 2026-11-02 | Our max pain ledger: daily snapshots of option open interest, settled against the expiration-day close; the previous close is the last reading before expiration day |
| Median miss, max pain | 1.20% | 2026-11-02 | Our max pain ledger: daily snapshots of option open interest, settled against the expiration-day close |
| Median miss, previous close | 0.93% | 2026-11-02 | Our max pain ledger: daily snapshots of option open interest, settled against the expiration-day close |
Go deeper
- Max pain accuracy ledger: every settlement, the tolerance bands and their intervals.
- Max pain, explained: how the number is computed from open interest.
- Max pain by ticker: the current reading for the tickers we track.
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