How often are AI chatbot stock direction calls right?
On our ledger, 48% of 52 decided calls were right, and 48% of the same windows closed higher, which is what a model that always answered higher would have scored.
Each week since August 3, 2026 the ledger asks AI models whether a large-cap stock will be higher or lower in 30 days, records the answer with that day's close, and scores it when the window ends. 38 of the 90 scored calls said unclear; they are kept on the record and left out of the rate, because declining to guess is a fair answer.
Of the 52 decided calls, 52 said higher and 0 said lower. A hit rate can differ from the always-higher share only on the windows where a model said lower, so that count is the one to read first.
The figures, with their dates
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decided calls right | 48% of 52 | 2026-10-28 | Our AI Answer Ledger: a fixed direction question asked weekly, scored against the close |
| Same windows that closed higher | 48% | 2026-10-28 | Our AI Answer Ledger: a fixed direction question asked weekly, scored against the close; closes from end-of-day bars |
| Calls that said lower | 0 | 2026-10-28 | Our AI Answer Ledger: a fixed direction question asked weekly, scored against the close |
Go deeper
- AI Answer Ledger: every scored call, by model, with the method.
- Using AI chatbots for stock research: what they are and are not good for.
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