Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI)

CIK 1503802 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGH$491M registered
= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)
registered capacity, not remaining: amounts already taken down are not subtracted yet
Overhead supply
HIGHwarrants = 80% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
LOW-80% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
MEDIUM~14.5 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2020-07-302026-05-07

Latest: 22.7M shares as of May 7, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 17.05B to 18.3M between Oct 30, 2025 and Feb 5, 2026, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-930); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

TrancheWarrantsExercise priceTermNotes
Two Thousand Twenty Five Warrants4.6M$6.64
Two Thousand Twenty Six Warrants4.4M$10
Pre Funded Warrants4.0M$0.0001
Maytwo Thousand Twenty Four Warrants3.1M$16.5
Two Thousand Twenty Four Warrants3.1M$6.64
Two Thousand Twenty Five Placement Warrants1.3M$6.64
Two Thousand Twenty Two Warrants635,703$95.37

Tranches exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed May 14, 2026. Groupings can overlap (a “Series E and F” row is not additive with a “Series E” row), so do not sum this column. A tranche the filer did not tag is absent here, not absent from the cap table. DOWN-ROUND = the filer tagged price-protection accounting scoped to that tranche.

Warrants outstanding: 18.0M underlying shares, as reported Mar 31, 2026 (10-Q).

Reported exercise price: $0.0001 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Rough fully diluted estimate: 40.7M = 22.7M O/S + 18.0M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

NotePrincipalCarryingConv. priceRateIf converted
Six Percentage Secured Convertible Senior Notes Due Two Thousand Twenty Nine$111.0Mnot tagged
New Two Thousand Twenty Nine Notes$108.0M$138.3M$22.5~4.8M sh
Two Thousand Twenty Nine Notes$101.0M$33.75~3.0M sh
Two Thousand Twenty Eight Notes$15.6M$19.2M$6.64~2.4M sh

If every note above converted at its tagged price: ~10.1M new shares on 22.7M currently outstanding. An estimate from principal ÷ conversion price, with inputs carrying different as-of dates; make-whole adjustments, capped calls and partial repurchases are not modeled.

Notes exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed May 14, 2026. Principal is face amount as tagged, not what remains after repurchases unless the filer updated the tag. A note the filer did not dimension is absent here, not absent from the balance sheet; the exhibits stay the ground truth.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $491.0Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

S-3May 4, 2026$73.8M registeredfiling →
S-3May 4, 2026$400.0M registeredfiling →
S-3Nov 3, 2025$17.2M registeredfiling →

Last 12 months: 2 executed · 4 registered.

EFFECTIVEMay 14, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
EFFECTIVEMay 14, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDMay 4, 2026S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3
REGISTEREDMay 4, 2026S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3
EXECUTEDMar 24, 2026Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
UPDATENov 24, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATENov 24, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
REGISTEREDNov 3, 2025S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3
REGISTEREDNov 3, 2025S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3
EXECUTEDOct 8, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
EFFECTIVEJun 7, 2024SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDMay 30, 2024S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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