Max pain // Cboe delayed data · as of Oct 24, 3:14 AM ET

TLT max pain

Spot (delayed)$81.3
Max pain · Fri, Mar 19$80-1.6% vs spot
Expected move (ATM straddle)±$5.67±7.0% by Fri, Mar 19
Put/Call OI0.95276K puts / 290K calls
Call wall$80largest call OI
Put wall$77largest put OI
IV3013.4%30-day implied vol
Net GEX+$4.2Mper 1% move · flip ≈ $92

Event risk before this expiration: FOMC decision Wed, Oct 28 · Jobs report Fri, Nov 6 · CPI release Tue, Nov 10 · Jobs report Fri, Dec 4 · FOMC decision Wed, Dec 9 · CPI release Thu, Dec 10 — macro releases historically overwhelm pinning effects; max pain reads weakest in event weeks.

Max pain levels

ExpiryMax painvs spotDTE
Mon, Oct 26$80-1.6%1d
Wed, Oct 28$80.5-1.0%3d
Fri, Oct 30$79-2.8%5d
Mon, Nov 2$81-0.4%8d
Wed, Nov 4$81.5+0.2%10d
Fri, Nov 6$78.5-3.4%12d
Fri, Nov 20$81-0.4%26d
Fri, Dec 18$81-0.4%54d
Thu, Dec 31$81-0.4%67d
Fri, Jan 15$85+4.6%82d
Fri, Feb 19$81-0.4%117d
Fri, Mar 19$80-1.6%145d
Wed, Mar 31$81-0.4%157d
Fri, Apr 16$82+0.9%173d

The writer-loss curve — where max pain comes from

spot8045607590105120$892M$0
■ put-side pain■ call-side painTotal payout option writers would owe at each settle price (both sides, all open interest, ×100 shares) — low settles hurt put writers, high settles hurt call writers. The minimum — 80 — is the max pain price.

Open interest by strike · Fri, Mar 19

spot8045717885929948K48K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)TLT open contracts per strike for Fri, Mar 19.

Open-interest change: building vs unwinding

Needs two observed snapshot days for this expiration; the comparison appears automatically once the next weekday snapshot lands. We diff real observations only; nothing is estimated.

Volume by strike · Fri, Mar 19

spot804571788592993K3K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Today's traded contracts per strike (delayed).

Implied volatility by strike · Fri, Mar 19

spot4560759010512032%13%
— call IV— put IVATM ≈ 13.8% · Quoted strikes only; illiquid wings with junk fits are dropped, not smoothed.

Gamma exposure by strike · Fri, Mar 19

spotflip 92457178859299+$14.4M−$14.4M
Net dealer gamma per strike, in dollars per 1% move, assuming the standard convention (dealers long calls, short puts) — an assumption, not an observation. Above the amber flip level hedging tends to dampen moves; below it, to amplify them.

Greeks by strike · Fri, Mar 19

Call ΔCall ΘStrikeΓVegaPut ΘPut Δ
0.86-0.01740.03220.11-0.01-0.16
0.83-0.01750.03670.13-0.01-0.19
0.79-0.01760.04140.15-0.01-0.23
0.74-0.01770.04590.16-0.01-0.27
0.70-0.01780.05010.18-0.01-0.32
0.65-0.01790.05360.19-0.01-0.37
0.59-0.01800.05620.20-0.01-0.43
0.53-0.01810.05760.20-0.01-0.48
0.48-0.01820.05770.20-0.01-0.54
0.42-0.01830.05660.20-0.01-0.59
0.37-0.01840.05430.19-0.01-0.65
0.32-0.01850.05120.18-0.01-0.70
0.28-0.01860.04740.17-0.01-0.74
0.24-0.01870.04320.16-0.01-0.78
0.20-0.01880.03900.14-0.01-0.82

Quoted contract greeks from the delayed feed (not modeled here); the highlighted row is nearest to spot. Showing 15 strikes around the money — all 41 are in the CSV. Δ per $1 of underlying · Θ per day · vega per IV point.

Stacked — layer the expirations

spot6472.577.582889752K0
Call open interest per strike, stacked across the checked expirations — each color is one expiry. Strikes are pruned to the liquid center of each chain.

All expirations combined — total open interest

spot457381.58897120988K988K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Every expiration combined: 8.9M call contracts, 4.6M put contracts open.

Reading this honestly

Max pain is arithmetic, not prophecy: the settle price that would minimize what option writers pay out at expiration, computed from open interest alone. Prices sometimes gravitate toward heavy strikes into expiry — dealer hedging is a real flow — but the evidence that max pain predicts settlement better than chance is mixed, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Use it as a map of where positioning is stacked, next to the fundamentals and the earnings calendar, not as a target.

Data: Cboe delayed public feed (~15 minutes), refreshed here about every 15 minutes. Open interest itself updates once daily, before the open. Educational information, not investment advice.

Keep going: TLT workspace · max pain, explained in full · options profit calculator · iron condor and credit spread calculator · GEX, defined · pin risk