Max pain // Cboe delayed data · as of Oct 24, 3:14 AM ET

TLT max pain

Spot (delayed)$81.3
Max pain · Fri, Dec 18$81-0.4% vs spot
Expected move (ATM straddle)±$3.61±4.4% by Fri, Dec 18
Put/Call OI0.57710K puts / 1.3M calls
Call wall$90largest call OI
Put wall$73largest put OI
IV3013.4%30-day implied vol
Net GEX+$211.4Mper 1% move · flip ≈ $83

Event risk before this expiration: FOMC decision Wed, Oct 28 · Jobs report Fri, Nov 6 · CPI release Tue, Nov 10 · Jobs report Fri, Dec 4 · FOMC decision Wed, Dec 9 · CPI release Thu, Dec 10 — macro releases historically overwhelm pinning effects; max pain reads weakest in event weeks.

Max pain levels

ExpiryMax painvs spotDTE
Mon, Oct 26$80-1.6%1d
Wed, Oct 28$80.5-1.0%3d
Fri, Oct 30$79-2.8%5d
Mon, Nov 2$81-0.4%8d
Wed, Nov 4$81.5+0.2%10d
Fri, Nov 6$78.5-3.4%12d
Fri, Nov 20$81-0.4%26d
Fri, Dec 18$81-0.4%54d
Thu, Dec 31$81-0.4%67d
Fri, Jan 15$85+4.6%82d
Fri, Feb 19$81-0.4%117d
Fri, Mar 19$80-1.6%145d
Wed, Mar 31$81-0.4%157d
Fri, Apr 16$82+0.9%173d

The writer-loss curve — where max pain comes from

spot8145638199117135$6.0B$0
■ put-side pain■ call-side painTotal payout option writers would owe at each settle price (both sides, all open interest, ×100 shares) — low settles hurt put writers, high settles hurt call writers. The minimum — 81 — is the max pain price.

Open interest by strike · Fri, Dec 18

spot814566758493102277K277K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)TLT open contracts per strike for Fri, Dec 18.

Open-interest change: building vs unwinding

Needs two observed snapshot days for this expiration; the comparison appears automatically once the next weekday snapshot lands. We diff real observations only; nothing is estimated.

Volume by strike · Fri, Dec 18

spot8145667584931028K8K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Today's traded contracts per strike (delayed).

Implied volatility by strike · Fri, Dec 18

spot4563819911713551%13%
— call IV— put IVATM ≈ 13.6% · Quoted strikes only; illiquid wings with junk fits are dropped, not smoothed.

Gamma exposure by strike · Fri, Dec 18

spotflip 834566758493102+$67.9M−$67.9M
Net dealer gamma per strike, in dollars per 1% move, assuming the standard convention (dealers long calls, short puts) — an assumption, not an observation. Above the amber flip level hedging tends to dampen moves; below it, to amplify them.

Greeks by strike · Fri, Dec 18

Call ΔCall ΘStrikeΓVegaPut ΘPut Δ
0.96-0.01740.02370.03-0.01-0.07
0.94-0.01750.03450.04-0.01-0.10
0.91-0.01760.04680.05-0.01-0.14
0.85-0.01770.05940.07-0.01-0.19
0.79-0.01780.07160.09-0.01-0.25
0.72-0.01790.08300.11-0.01-0.33
0.63-0.01800.09160.12-0.01-0.41
0.54-0.02810.09560.12-0.01-0.51
0.44-0.02820.09420.12-0.01-0.59
0.35-0.01830.08750.12-0.01-0.68
0.28-0.01840.07710.10-0.01-0.75
0.21-0.01850.06540.09-0.01-0.81
0.16-0.01860.05380.08-0.01-0.85
0.12-0.01870.04330.06-0.01-0.89
0.09-0.01880.03450.05-0.01-0.92

Quoted contract greeks from the delayed feed (not modeled here); the highlighted row is nearest to spot. Showing 15 strikes around the money — all 53 are in the CSV. Δ per $1 of underlying · Θ per day · vega per IV point.

Stacked — layer the expirations

spot6472.577.582889752K0
Call open interest per strike, stacked across the checked expirations — each color is one expiry. Strikes are pruned to the liquid center of each chain.

All expirations combined — total open interest

spot457381.58897120988K988K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Every expiration combined: 8.9M call contracts, 4.6M put contracts open.

Reading this honestly

Max pain is arithmetic, not prophecy: the settle price that would minimize what option writers pay out at expiration, computed from open interest alone. Prices sometimes gravitate toward heavy strikes into expiry — dealer hedging is a real flow — but the evidence that max pain predicts settlement better than chance is mixed, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Use it as a map of where positioning is stacked, next to the fundamentals and the earnings calendar, not as a target.

Data: Cboe delayed public feed (~15 minutes), refreshed here about every 15 minutes. Open interest itself updates once daily, before the open. Educational information, not investment advice.

Keep going: TLT workspace · max pain, explained in full · options profit calculator · iron condor and credit spread calculator · GEX, defined · pin risk