Does our confidence label mean anything?
Every projected earnings date on this site carries a label: high, medium or low confidence. A label like that is worthless unless the higher tiers are actually more accurate, so this page checks. A confidence label that does not track accuracy is decoration, and decoration on a number people plan around is worse than no label at all.
| Label | Scored | Median miss | Within 3d | Within 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 4,662 | 1 d | 69.0% | 91.5% |
| medium | 116 | 1 d | 62.9% | 87.9% |
| low | — | — | — | — |
The labels order correctly. Each higher tier lands within seven days at least as often as the tier below it, which is the minimum a label has to do to deserve being printed.
Read the sample sizes before the percentages. 97.6% of scored projections carry a single label, so the tiers are badly unbalanced. A label that reports the same value almost every time carries little information even when it is accurate, and that is a limitation of the engine, not a detail of this page. The low tier haszero scored points, and the reason is structural: scoring only begins at a company’s fifth report, which guarantees enough prior dates to reach a higher tier. This backtest therefore cannot test the bottom of the scale at all.
How this is measured
- Walk-forward, no lookahead. To score the report on a given date, the engine sees only the dates filed before it — both to project the date and to decide which confidence label it would have assigned at that moment.
- Real filed dates only. Every point is an 8-K earnings date the company actually filed. Nothing is simulated except the ordering.
- Scoring starts at the fifth report per company, because the projection needs at least three prior dates and two usable quarter gaps before it can say anything.
This is a backtest, not a track record. It replays the engine over dates that were already filed. It is not the same claim as the max pain accuracy ledger, which records what we published as we published it and refuses backfill. We began logging live earnings projections on 2026-08-20; until those meet their filed dates there is no live scoreboard here, and we are not going to dress a simulation up as one.