Did our claims come true?
This site publishes three kinds of dated claim, and each was graded on its own page in its own vocabulary. This page states one rule and applies it to all three, so the records can be read against each other — and, more importantly, so the claims we could not decide are counted in public instead of disappearing.
The abstention count is the point. A hit rate whose denominator is chosen by the same code that reports it is not a measurement — any grader can look excellent by quietly declining the hard cases, and nothing in the output would show it. So every claim we refused to grade is counted above and itemised below, with the reason.
The rule
A claim is graded only when all three hold. If any one fails it is abstained, with a stated reason, and it stays in the denominator.
- Pre-registered. Recorded, with its due date, before the outcome was knowable.
- Unambiguous. It says something that could turn out false.
- Outcome observed. The deciding fact exists and was not inferred, interpolated or back-filled.
The registers
Claim: A price level, recorded before expiry, where option holders lose most.
Rule: Graded a hit when the final pre-expiry reading landed within 1% of the expiry-day close.
An expiration with no expiry-day observation is abstained rather than settled against the nearest day we did see.
Claim: A direction — higher or lower — recorded on the day it was asked, due 30 days later.
Rule: Graded a hit when the 30-day price move went the way the call said.
- 3 abstained — the claim did not commit to anything checkable
An "unclear" answer is recorded and abstained, never re-asked until it commits. 50 calls not yet due.
Claim: A date window for a company's next report, projected from its own filing cadence.
Rule: Graded a hit when the filed report date fell within 7 days of the projection. Walk-forward: only dates filed before the one being scored are visible to the projection.
- 572 abstained — the register cannot produce a gradeable claim of this kind
Scoring starts at a company’s fifth report, because the projection needs three dates and two usable gaps before it can say anything. Those earlier reports happened and we hold their dates, so they are abstained rather than excluded. That warm-up is also why the low tier carries zero scored points: this backtest cannot test the bottom of its own scale, and reports that rather than printing 0%.
Why we can publish this
We issue no positions and sell no signals, so a bad number here costs us nothing but the chance to look better than we are. A product that sells the calls has the opposite incentive, which is why so few publish a settled record: the same page that proves the method would price the product. That asymmetry is the only reason this page can exist, and it is worth more than any individual figure on it.
None of this is a forecast or a recommendation, and a past hit rate does not carry forward. It is a record of how our own published claims turned out, including the ones we could not decide.