What’s a stock actually worth?
Three classic estimates — a two-stage DCF, a reverse DCF, and the Graham number — computed from a company’s own SEC filings, with every assumption editable and every input shown. The opposite of a proprietary “fair value” you can’t check.
The annual reports behind these rates
| Free cash flow per share | That year | Year before, same report | Change | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2025 | 5.61 USD | 7.26 USD | -22.8% | 10-K filed 2026-02-17 |
| fiscal 2024 | 7.26 USD | 5.91 USD | +22.9% | 10-K filed 2025-02-18 |
| fiscal 2023 | 5.91 USD | 10.67 USD | -44.6% | 10-K filed 2024-02-20 |
| fiscal 2022 | 10.67 USD | 12.32 USD | -13.4% | 10-K filed 2023-02-21 |
| fiscal 2021 | 12.32 USD | 5.79 USD | +112.5% | 10-K filed 2022-02-22 |
| fiscal 2020 | 5.79 USD | 2.60 USD | +122.9% | 10-K filed 2021-02-22 |
| fiscal 2019 | 2.60 USD | 7.39 USD | -64.8% | 10-K filed 2020-02-20 |
| fiscal 2018 | 7.39 USD | -4.28 USD | not a growth rate (a year at or below zero) | 10-K filed 2019-02-21 |
| fiscal 2017 | -4.28 USD | 3.95 USD | not a growth rate (a year at or below zero) | 10-K filed 2018-02-21 |
| fiscal 2016 | 3.95 USD | 5.58 USD | -29.1% | 10-K filed 2017-02-21 |
Concepts read: (us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment) / us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding
| Diluted EPS | That year | Year before, same report | Change | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2025 | 6.56 USD | 6.75 USD | -2.8% | 10-K filed 2026-02-17 |
| fiscal 2024 | 6.75 USD | 7.80 USD | -13.5% | 10-K filed 2025-02-18 |
| fiscal 2023 | 7.80 USD | 13.20 USD | -40.9% | 10-K filed 2024-02-20 |
| fiscal 2022 | 13.20 USD | 14.68 USD | -10.1% | 10-K filed 2023-02-21 |
| fiscal 2021 | 14.68 USD | 1.54 USD | +853.2% | 10-K filed 2022-02-22 |
| fiscal 2020 | 1.54 USD | 5.11 USD | -69.9% | 10-K filed 2021-02-22 |
| fiscal 2019 | 5.11 USD | 5.51 USD | -7.3% | 10-K filed 2020-02-20 |
| fiscal 2018 | 5.51 USD | 5.61 USD | -1.8% | 10-K filed 2019-02-21 |
| fiscal 2017 | 5.61 USD | 3.87 USD | +45.0% | 10-K filed 2018-02-21 |
| fiscal 2016 | 3.87 USD | 5.35 USD | -27.7% | 10-K filed 2017-02-21 |
Concepts read: us-gaap:EarningsPerShareDiluted
Per filed share, as each report states it. Free cash flow per share is operating cash flow less capital expenditure, over the diluted weighted average share count (or net income over diluted EPS where the count is tagged per share class).
Each year’s change comes from one annual report, which states that year and the year before on the same share basis, and the rate compounds those changes; so a split or a restatement between reports cannot bend it. A rate needs a positive figure at both ends of its window. The DCF above grows total free cash flow and divides by today’s share count, so a per-share rate also carries the buybacks or new shares of those years. These are past figures, not a forecast.
Not shown yet: the P/E range UPS has traded at, which would set the discount rate and terminal assumptions against its own history. It needs a long daily price history we are not yet licensed to display.
Stage-1 growth down the side, discount rate across the top, with terminal growth at 2.5% and 10 years of stage 1. Every cell runs the same two-stage DCF as the card above, so moving a slider moves the grid.
| Growth ↓ Discount → | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | 143.85 | 117.17 | 98.74 | 85.24 | 74.93 |
| 6% | 169.10 | 136.99 | 114.84 | 98.65 | 86.32 |
| 8% | 198.69 | 160.16 | 133.61 | 114.25 | 99.53 |
| 10% | 233.29 | 187.17 | 155.45 | 132.36 | 114.84 |
| 12% | 273.65 | 218.63 | 180.84 | 153.36 | 132.54 |
| Growth the close implies | 0.5% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% |
Outlined: your current pair. Shaded: at or above the last close, 108.30 USD. The heavy line runs between the cells on either side of it.
Estimates, not targets. The DCF treats free cash flow as cash flow to equity and divides by shares (the common retail shortcut — it skips net debt and a full WACC), so it’s a sanity-check, not a valuation opinion. All inputs are from UPS’s SEC filings; change any assumption above and the numbers update live. Educational only — not investment advice.
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A DCF is only as good as its assumptions — that’s exactly why every one here is yours to change. We treat free cash flow as cash flow to equity and divide by shares (the common retail shortcut; it skips net debt and a full WACC), so treat the output as a sanity-check range, not a valuation opinion. Inputs from SEC filings. Educational only — not investment advice.