fair-value calculator // DCF · reverse DCF · GrahamFREE

What’s a stock actually worth?

Three classic estimates — a two-stage DCF, a reverse DCF, and the Graham number — computed from a company’s own SEC filings, with every assumption editable and every input shown. The opposite of a proprietary “fair value” you can’t check.

fmcb · FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORPFull workspace →
FAIR-VALUE RANGE
$1,670.30 to $3,309.70
CURRENT PRICE
not filed
TWO-STAGE DCF
$3,309.70
8% growth for 10y, 2.5% terminal, 9% discount
GRAHAM NUMBERBenjamin Graham's ceiling for a cautious buyer: the highest share price his 1949 rule allows, at 15 times earnings and 1.5 times book value combined. A yardstick, not a forecast.
$1,670.30
√(22.5 × EPS × book value/share)
not solvable from these inputs
FCF growth the current price implies for 10y.
YOUR ASSUMPTIONS — TWEAK ANYTHING
ASSUMPTION RECEIPTS: YOUR STAGE-1 GROWTH OF 8.0% AGAINST FMCB’S FILED RECORD
Free cash flow per share, realized
3 FILED YEARS
fiscal 2022 to 2025
yours is 4.7 points higher
5 FILED YEARS
fiscal 2020 to 2025
yours is 8.8 points lower
10 FILED YEARS
fiscal 2015 to 2025
yours is 4.1 points lower
Diluted EPS, realized
3 FILED YEARS
fiscal 2022 to 2025
yours is 3.5 points lower
5 FILED YEARS
fiscal 2020 to 2025
yours is 4.6 points lower
10 FILED YEARS
Not computed. Only 8 consecutive annual reports state it for both years. The report for the fiscal year ending 2017-12-31 does not state diluted EPS for both of its years under the concepts read.
The annual reports behind these rates
Free cash flow per shareThat yearYear before, same reportChangeReport
fiscal 2025138.27 USD138.64 USD-0.3%10-K filed 2026-03-13
fiscal 2024138.64 USD116.69 USD+18.8%10-K filed 2025-03-17
fiscal 2023116.69 USD125.48 USD-7.0%10-K filed 2024-03-14
fiscal 2022125.48 USD73.32 USD+71.1%10-K filed 2023-03-15
fiscal 202173.32 USD63.54 USD+15.4%10-K filed 2022-03-16
fiscal 202063.54 USD82.97 USD-23.4%10-K filed 2021-03-15
fiscal 201982.98 USD66.39 USD+25.0%10-K filed 2020-03-13
fiscal 201866.39 USD44.07 USD+50.7%10-K filed 2019-03-15
fiscal 201744.07 USD41.95 USD+5.1%10-K filed 2018-03-16
fiscal 201641.95 USD43.99 USD-4.6%10-K filed 2017-03-15

Concepts read: (us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment) / us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfSharesOutstandingBasic; (us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment) / us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfSharesOutstandingBasic; (us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment) / us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss / us-gaap:EarningsPerShareBasicAndDiluted; (us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment) / us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding

Diluted EPSThat yearYear before, same reportChangeReport
fiscal 2025133.96 USD121.02 USD+10.7%10-K filed 2026-03-13
fiscal 2024121.02 USD116.61 USD+3.8%10-K filed 2025-03-17
fiscal 2023116.61 USD96.55 USD+20.8%10-K filed 2024-03-14
fiscal 202296.55 USD84.01 USD+14.9%10-K filed 2023-03-15
fiscal 202184.01 USD74.03 USD+13.5%10-K filed 2022-03-16
fiscal 202074.03 USD71.18 USD+4.0%10-K filed 2021-03-15
fiscal 201971.18 USD56.82 USD+25.3%10-K filed 2020-03-13
fiscal 201856.82 USD35.03 USD+62.2%10-K filed 2019-03-15

Concepts read: us-gaap:EarningsPerShareBasicAndDiluted; us-gaap:EarningsPerShareDiluted

Per filed share, as each report states it. Free cash flow per share is operating cash flow less capital expenditure, over the diluted weighted average share count (or net income over diluted EPS where the count is tagged per share class).

Each year’s change comes from one annual report, which states that year and the year before on the same share basis, and the rate compounds those changes; so a split or a restatement between reports cannot bend it. A rate needs a positive figure at both ends of its window. The DCF above grows total free cash flow and divides by today’s share count, so a per-share rate also carries the buybacks or new shares of those years. These are past figures, not a forecast.

Not shown yet: the P/E range FMCB has traded at, which would set the discount rate and terminal assumptions against its own history. It needs a long daily price history we are not yet licensed to display.

SENSITIVITY: DCF VALUE PER SHARE

Stage-1 growth down the side, discount rate across the top, with terminal growth at 2.5% and 10 years of stage 1. Every cell runs the same two-stage DCF as the card above, so moving a slider moves the grid.

Growth ↓ Discount →7%8%9%10%11%
4%3,563.312,902.582,445.842,111.451,856.20
6%4,188.963,393.542,844.722,443.742,138.30
8%4,921.913,967.283,309.702,830.122,465.53
10%5,778.834,636.523,850.843,278.782,844.65
12%6,778.645,415.734,479.583,798.983,283.32

Outlined: your current pair. No last close is on file, so no line is drawn.

THE INPUTS — FROM FMCB’S FILINGS, FY ENDING 2025-12-31
Free cash flow $96.6MShares 0.00BDiluted EPS $133.96Book value/share $925.62

Estimates, not targets. The DCF treats free cash flow as cash flow to equity and divides by shares (the common retail shortcut — it skips net debt and a full WACC), so it’s a sanity-check, not a valuation opinion. All inputs are from FMCB’s SEC filings; change any assumption above and the numbers update live. Educational only — not investment advice.

your saved valuations // stale when a newer filing changes an input

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A DCF is only as good as its assumptions — that’s exactly why every one here is yours to change. We treat free cash flow as cash flow to equity and divide by shares (the common retail shortcut; it skips net debt and a full WACC), so treat the output as a sanity-check range, not a valuation opinion. Inputs from SEC filings. Educational only — not investment advice.