Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

Senmiao Technology Ltd (VAI)

CIK 1711012 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGHS-3/A on file 2023-09-29
= is there a registration (S-1/S-3 family) on file without a later withdrawal
no structured fee data on the live registrations, so this is a yes/no, not a size
Overhead supply
MEDIUMwarrants = 31% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
MEDIUM+80% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
LOW~96.4 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2020-11-192026-08-10

Latest: 14.6M shares as of Aug 10, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 11.1M to 1.1M between Jul 7, 2025 and Aug 8, 2025, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-10); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

TrancheWarrantsExercise priceTermNotes
Private Placement Warrants4.5Mnot tagged——
Units Warrants4.0Mnot tagged——
Investor Warrants1.3Mnot tagged——
November Two Thousand Twenty One Private Placement Warrants1.3M$1.03——
Pre Funded Warrants905,000$0.0001——
May2021 Registered Direct Offering Warrants59,468$105——
Placement Agent Warrants5,515not tagged——
November Two Thousand Twenty One Placement Agent Warrants5,515not tagged——

Tranches exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Aug 14, 2026 →. Groupings can overlap (a “Series E and F” row is not additive with a “Series E” row), so do not sum this column. A tranche the filer did not tag is absent here, not absent from the cap table. DOWN-ROUND = the filer tagged price-protection accounting scoped to that tranche.

Warrants outstanding: 4.5M underlying shares, as reported Jun 30, 2026 (10-Q).

Reported exercise price: $1.26 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $288,833 as of Mar 31, 2024.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 19.1M = 14.6M O/S + 4.5M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

No convertible-note facts tagged in the 10-Q filed Aug 14, 2026. If convertible notes exist, their terms live in exhibit prose for this filer and are not parsed; absence of a tag is not proof of absence. The exhibits are the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding14.6MAug 10, 2026
+ Private Placement Warrants (if exercised)4.5MNov 14, 2025
+ Units Warrants (if exercised)4.0MJun 30, 2026
+ Investor Warrants (if exercised)1.3MJun 30, 2026
+ November Two Thousand Twenty One Private Placement Warrants (if exercised)1.3MJun 30, 2026
+ Pre Funded Warrants (if exercised)905,000Jun 30, 2026
+ May2021 Registered Direct Offering Warrants (if exercised)59,468Mar 31, 2026
+ Placement Agent Warrants (if exercised)5,515Jun 30, 2026
+ November Two Thousand Twenty One Placement Agent Warrants (if exercised)5,515Jun 30, 2026
Fully diluted estimate26.7M+83.6% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

S-3Sep 28, 2023no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →

Last 12 months: 2 executed · 0 registered.

EXECUTEDNov 17, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K →
EXECUTEDNov 14, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →
REGISTEREDSep 29, 2023S-3/A registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3/A →
EFFECTIVESep 29, 2023SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
REGISTEREDSep 28, 2023S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3 →
EFFECTIVEMay 30, 2023SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
REGISTEREDMay 22, 2023S-1/A registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-1/A →
REGISTEREDMay 5, 2023S-1 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-1 →
WITHDRAWNFeb 2, 2023Registration withdrawnRW →
WITHDRAWNDec 30, 2022Registration withdrawnRW →
REGISTEREDApr 15, 2022S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3 →
REGISTEREDFeb 18, 2022S-3/A registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3/A →

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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