Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Item
2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Conditions and Results of Operations
The
following discussion and analysis is intended as a review of significant factors affecting our financial condition and results of operations
for the periods indicated. The discussion should be read in conjunction with our unaudited financial statements and the notes presented
herein included in this Form 10-Q and the audited financial statements and the other information set forth in the Prospectus that forms
a part of our Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-284042) which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on
December 23, 2024 and amended on Form S-1/A on May 13, 2025. In addition to historical information, the following Management’s
Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.
Company
Overview
Arrive
AI pioneered the smart mailbox for drone deliveries, evolving into a leader in the Autonomous Last Mile (“ALM”). Today, we
are transforming last-mile logistics by enabling secure, seamless exchanges between drones, robots, and people. Our mission is to connect
these systems through a universal ALM network of Arrive Points™—smart lockers and mini-cross-docks—powered by an AI-driven
ALM platform. This network unlocks exceptional efficiency, accelerating adoption in medical, retail, e-commerce, and beyond, making Arrive
AI the intelligent choice for the final inch of automated delivery.
Our
patented Arrive Points™ deliver a smart, secure, and seamless solution for automated last-mile delivery. These innovative docks
streamline exchanges by eliminating manual intervention and technical barriers, ensuring efficient data validation and synchronization.
With robust security, precise tracking, and support for diverse goods—including temperature-controlled options for food and medicine—Arrive
Points enhance chain of custody and product integrity. By bridging physical and digital interfaces, they are paving the way for scalable,
fully autonomous delivery networks.
We
expect to have three primary revenue streams:
1.
The Company is currently generating revenue through subscription services for Arrive Points, along with installation, support, and infrastructure
agreements with customers. We provide our ALM access points to both businesses and consumers through monthly and annual subscription
fees. This turnkey service includes hardware, software, support, maintenance, installation/uninstallation, and financing for long-term
deployed assets. In Q4 of 2024 we installed third-generation Arrive Points (“AP3” units), which began revenue operation in
2025.
2.
Data monetization via models and insights generated by machine learning and artificial intelligence (“ML” and “AI”).
Machine learning facilitates our systems’ ability to learn and improve from experience using data patterns, while artificial intelligence
encompasses broader capabilities and models to simulate human intelligence and decision-making. We plan to use both technologies distinctly:
a.
Machine learning: Primarily deployed in our fourth and fifth-generation Arrive Points (“AP4” and “AP5” units)
for local IoT (Internet of Things) data processing, edge computing (inferencing) for environment and transactional models, and interactions
models for drones and robots.
b.
Artificial intelligence: Used more broadly to analyze and derive insights from our network’s transactional and environmental data
through complex AI models, but we will also leverage foundational AI models like ChatGPT or LAMA for device-based human interactions.
3.
ALM Marketplace. Our network of Arrive Points, the supporting software and AI plus ML, collectively create a platform that is intended
to provide valuable services and insights to all stakeholders in the ALM ecosystem. For example, our automated delivery marketplace (“ADM”)
will use a Google-AdSense-like market to help prioritize and optimize high-demand access schedules and space availability for our access
point network. This platform will provide a broad array of critical functions for the ALM ecosystem including arrival/departure scheduling,
space optimization, smart delivery notifications, micro weather conditions, local restrictions, transactional status updates, and automation
issues/obstacles. These advanced capabilities will be introduced in our AP5 development and pilot program currently in development.
We
differentiate ourselves through a comprehensive, integrated solution:
●
Universal Compatibility: Our multi-generational Arrive Points (AP3, AP4, AP5) are being developed for universal support of all drone
and robotic delivery systems, overcoming a major hurdle for widespread ALM adoption.
●
End-to-End Solution: We combine advanced hardware with a powerful software platform and AI/ML capabilities, offering a complete ecosystem
for automated exchange.
●
Early Market Penetration: We have already secured pilot programs with significant customers, including a regional hospital and a specialty
pharmaceutical delivery company, demonstrating early validation and learning opportunities for sustainable economics.
- 34 -
Capitalization
and Dilution
As
of September 30, 2025, we had 34,213,387 shares outstanding. On a fully diluted basis, including outstanding warrants (exercisable
for 107,741 shares) and options (exercisable for 609,318 shares), our total share count is 34,930,446. Additionally, under the
Streeterville Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”), up to 6,792,645 remaining registered shares were available
at September 30, 2025 that may be issuable at a discount to the market price. The Purchase Agreement also specifies the re-purchase
of 2,937,500 outstanding pre-delivery shares at par value upon expiration or termination of the agreement.
The
table below illustrates potential dilution under different conversion scenarios (unaudited):
Scenario
Shares Outstanding
% Increase
Current Outstanding (9/30/2025)
34,213,387
- %
With all options and warrants exercised
34,930,446
2 %
With all registered shares available for Streeterville issuance at September 30, 2025
41,723,091
22 %
With re-purchase of pre-delivery shares
38,785,591
13 %
These
potential issuances could materially dilute existing stockholders, particularly if conversion occurs at depressed share prices.
Recent
Developments
Share
Repurchase Program
On
September 8, 2025, we announced a share repurchase program of up to $10 million of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0002
per share, from September 8, 2025 through March 31, 2026. Repurchases may be made from time to time in the open market, through privately
negotiated transactions, or under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, in each case in accordance with Rule 10b-18 under the Securities Exchange
Act of 1934, as amended, and subject to market conditions and other factors, including customary blackout periods. The program may be
modified, suspended, or terminated at any time at the Company’s discretion. The timing and actual number of shares repurchased,
if any, will depend on a variety of factors, including price, liquidity, and alternative uses of capital.
The
Company repurchased 9,700 shares on the open market on September 9, 2025, in multiple lots at an average price of $3.54 per share, and
10,000 shares on the open market on September 11, 2025, in multiple lots at an average price of $4.04 per share.
Issuance
of Shares Under the Equity Incentive Plan
On
July 18, 2025, we issued 2,264 fully vested shares under the 2023 Equity Incentive Plan to a consultant. On October 6, 2025, we issued
21,876 restricted stock units under the plan to three independent directors, subject to a one-year vesting.
- 35 -
Results
of Operations
Comparison
of the Three Months Ended September 30, 2025, and September 30, 2024
Revenues:
Three Months Ended
September 30,
$
%
2025
2024
Change
Change
Consulting services
$ -
$ -
$ -
NM %
Installation
2,175
-
2,175
NM
Subscription
5,275
-
5,275
NM
$ 7,450
$ -
$ 7,450
NM %
During
the three months ended September 30, 2025, we recognized total revenues of $7,450. Of this, $5,275 was for monthly subscriptions, and
$2,175 was for installation fees. Consulting services, and installation fees are typically project-based and non-recurring in nature.
Subscription services are recurring and paid either up-front or monthly for an annual term. We anticipate these revenue streams to continue
in future quarters while we develop new revenue models for the autonomous delivery marketplace and AI data insight monetization.
As
a development stage company, during the three months ended September 30, 2024, we had no revenues. Percentage change from the prior year
period is therefore not meaningful (“NM”).
Operating
Expenses:
Three Months Ended
September 30,
$
%
2025 (Restated)
2024
Change
Change
General and administrative
$ 1,370,346
$ 791,639
$ 578,707
73 %
Research and development
179,854
7,940
171,914
2,165
Sales and marketing
107,530
28,414
79,116
278
$ 1,657,730
$ 827,993
$ 829,737
100 %
Our
third quarter results reflect growing investment in the team size, product development and marketing activities.
General
and administrative expenses increased by $578,707 to $1,370,346 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, as compared to the three
months ended September 30, 2024. Primary components of general and administrative expenses were:
●
Salaries
and benefits in total were $855,045, an increase of $338,795 from the prior year period, reflecting new hiring in product development,
engineering and sales and marketing.
●
Base
salaries for the period were $540,323, an increase of $305,639 from the same period in the prior year. As of September 30, 2025,
the Company had 33 full-time salaried employees, compared with 8 in the same period last year.
●
Stock-based
compensation for the period was $289,431, an increase of $14,926 from the same period in the prior year.
●
Legal
and professional service fees were $238,677, an increase of $90,099 from the same period in the prior year due to higher spend on
investor relations ($40,483), patent expenses ($32,716), compliance ($20,495), and litigation ($18,635), offset by lower consulting
services.
●
Insurance
expense was $72,421, an increase of $54,475 from the same period in the prior year, due to higher directors’ and officers’
insurance premiums.
●
Information
technology expense was $46,289, an increase of $37,390 from the same period in the prior year, due to onboarding a new service provider.
●
General
and administrative expense also includes an impairment charge in the current period of $10,541 related to a damaged asset in construction
in process.
Research
and Development expenses were $179,854 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, an increase of $171,914 as compared to the same
period in the prior year. This is primarily due to higher independent contractor spend ($42,911) and a one-time vendor credit in the
prior year period of $129,351.
Marketing
expenses were $107,530 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, an increase of $79,116 from the same period in the prior year.
The increase is due to higher travel expenses ($58,821) and advertising expenses ($20,295) in the current quarter.
- 36 -
Other
Income/Expenses:
Three Months Ended
September 30,
$
%
2025 (Restated)
2024
Change
Change
Other income
$ 23,388
$ 5,434
$ 17,954
330 %
Interest expense and bank charges
(283,586 )
(1,192 )
(282,394 )
23,691
Change in fair value of derivative liability
896,266
-
896,266
NM
Amortization of debt discount
(88,295 )
-
(88,295 )
NM
Loss on Conversion of convertible note payable
(3,295,072 )
-
(3,295,072 )
NM
Realized gain (loss) on investments
46,491
-
46,491
NM
Unrealized gain (loss) on investments
(76,120 )
-
(76,120 )
NM
$ (2,776,928 )
$ 4,242
$ (2,781,170 )
(65,563 )%
Other income for the three months ended September
30, 2025, was $23,388. Income was recognized from payroll tax refunds earned under the federal R&D tax credit program of $18,780,
and interest income of $4,608.
Interest expense of $283,586 was comprised primarily
of the immediate expensing of the debt issuance costs associated with the bifurcated derivative of $102,599, amortization of the debt
issue costs of the convertible note of $6,297, and accrued interest on the convertible note of $165,832. Other miscellaneous interest
and bank fees was $8,858 in the period.
Change in fair value of derivative liabilities resulted
in a non-cash gain of $896,266 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, with no comparable amount in 2024. The embedded conversion
feature of the convertible note was bifurcated as a derivative liability at issuance under ASC 815. Each derivative is remeasured at fair
value using a Monte Carlo simulation model at each reporting and conversion date, with changes recognized in earnings. The gain reflects
the decline in the Company’s stock price from issuance, which reduced the expected value of the noteholder’s conversion optionality.
Amortization of debt discount resulted in a non-cash
charge of $88,295 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, with no comparable amount in 2024, representing effective interest method
amortization of the combined discount on the host convertible note instruments, consisting of original issue discount, the fair value
of each bifurcated derivative at issuance, and allocable debt issuance costs, over the estimated three-year expected term of the note.
Loss on conversion of convertible notes payable of
$3,295,072 for the three months ended September 30, 2025 resulted from the issuance of common stock for the conversion of convertible
notes payable with no comparable amount in 2024. Under ASC 470-50, each conversion was treated as a debt conversion, and the loss represents
the difference between the net carrying value converted and the fair value of common stock issued.
Realized gains on investments were $46,491, and unrealized
losses were $76,120 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. During the quarter, the Company engaged in speculative trading of derivatives,
primarily options, resulting in a net realized gain of $104,635. The Company’s short-term investments, primarily in marketable securities,
contributed a realized net loss of $58,144 and unrealized net loss of $76,120 for the quarter. These activities are part of the Company’s
strategy to generate short-term returns on excess cash.
During the three months ended September 30, 2024,
we recognized income from a corporate card rebate program ($5,434). Interest expense and bank fees for the prior-year period were $1,175.
During the three months ended September 30, 2024,
we had no realized or unrealized gains or losses on investments. Percentage change from the prior year period is therefore not meaningful
(“NM”)
Comparison
of the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025, and September 30, 2024
Revenues:
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
$
%
2025
(Restated)
2024
Change
Change
Consulting services
$ 89,000
$ -
$ 89,000
NM %
Installation
3,675
-
3,675
NM
Subscription
5,500
-
5,500
NM
$ 98,175
$ -
$ 98,175
NM %
During
the nine months ended September 30, 2025, we recognized total revenues of $98,175. Of this, $89,000 was for design and consulting services,
$3,675 for installation fees, and $5,500 for monthly subscriptions.
As
a development stage company, during the nine months ended September 30, 2024, we had no revenues.
Operating
Expenses:
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
$
%
2025 (Restated)
2024
Change
Change
General and administrative
$ 6,739,384
$ 2,395,881
$ 4,343,503
181 %
Research and development
564,585
548,879
15,706
3
Sales and marketing
164,793
281,160
(116,367 )
(41 )
$ 7,468,762
$ 3,225,920
$ 4,242,842
132 %
- 37 -
Our
nine months ended September 30, 2025 results reflect continued investment in product development and marketing activities. General and
administrative expenses include one-time costs related to the direct listing and financing transaction.
General
and administrative expenses increased by $4,343,503 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, as compared to the nine months ended
September 30, 2024. Primary components of general and administrative expenses were:
●
Salaries
and benefits in total increased by $4,359,704 from the prior year period. This was impacted by $1,866,531 one-time success bonuses
paid upon completion of the public listing in May 2025.
●
Excluding
the one-time bonus costs, base salaries for the period were $730,687, an increase of $208,822 from the same period in the prior year
due to new hiring in product development, engineering and sales and marketing. As of September 30, 2025, the Company had 33 full-time
salaried employees, compared with 8 in the same period last year.
●
Stock-based
compensation for the period was $2,322,155, an increase of $1,442,035 from the same period in the prior year.
●
Legal
and professional service fees were $950,017, an increase of $549,239 from the same period in the prior year due to higher spend on
legal fees related to the direct listing ($260,383), investor relations ($106,298), compensation consulting ($77,140), patent expenses
($54,745), and higher transfer agent fees ($19,869).
●
Insurance
expense was $147,052, an increase of $93,835 from the same period in the prior year, due to higher directors and officers insurance
premiums.
Research
and Development expenses were $564,585 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, an increase of $15,706 as compared to the same period
in the prior year. This is primarily due to the timing of vendor engineering projects (lower by $258,861), offset by higher independent
contractor spend ($159,342) and one-time success bonuses for independent contractors ($118,250).
Marketing
expenses were $164,793 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, a decrease of $116,367 from the same period in the prior year. The
decrease is due to one-time expenses in the prior year period for television advertising ($200,000), offset by higher travel, meals and
entertainment expenses ($63,017), and other marketing expenses ($20,616).
Other
Income/Expenses:
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
$
%
2025 (Restated)
2024
Change
Change
Other income
$ 83,454
$ 29,523
$ 53,931
183 %
Interest expense and bank charges
(452,843 )
(3,209 )
(449,634 )
14,012
Change in fair value of derivative liability
1,086,266
-
1,086,266
NM
Amortization of debt discount
(116,033 )
-
(116,033 )
NM
Loss on conversion of convertible notes payable
(3,295,072 )
-
(3,295,072
NM
Realized gain (loss) on investments
46,491
-
46,491
NM
Unrealized gain (loss) on investments
(76,120 )
-
(76,120 )
NM
$ (2,723,857 )
$ 26,314
$ (2,750,171 )
(10,451 )%
Other
Income of $83,454 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was recognized from payroll tax refunds earned under the federal R&D
tax credit program of $61,637, state tax refund from the EDGE credit of $16,915, and interest income of $4,902.
Interest
expense of $452,843 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was comprised primarily of the immediate expensing of the debt issuance
costs associated with the bifurcated derivative of $266,612, amortization of the debt issue costs of the convertible note of $8,153,
and accrued interest on the convertible note of $165,832. Other miscellaneous interest and bank fees was $12,246 in the period.
Change
in fair value of derivative liabilities resulted in a non-cash gain of $1,086,266 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with
no comparable amount in 2024. The embedded conversion feature of the convertible note was bifurcated as a derivative liability at issuance
under ASC 815. Each derivative is remeasured at fair value using a Monte Carlo simulation model at each reporting and conversion date,
with changes recognized in earnings. The gain reflects the decline in the Company’s stock price from issuance, which reduced the
expected value of the noteholder’s conversion optionality.
Amortization
of debt discount resulted in a non-cash charge of $116,033 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with no comparable amount
in 2024, representing effective interest method amortization of the combined discount on the host convertible note instruments,
consisting of original issue discount, the fair value of each bifurcated derivative at issuance, and allocable debt issuance costs,
over the estimated three-year expected term of the note.
Loss
on conversion of convertible notes payable of $3,295,072 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 resulted from the issuance of common
stock for the conversion of convertible notes payable with no comparable amount in 2024. Under ASC 470-50, each conversion was treated
as a debt conversion, and the loss represents the difference between the net carrying value converted and the fair value of common stock
issued.
Realized
gains on investments were $46,491, and unrealized losses were $76,120 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. During the quarter,
the Company engaged in speculative trading of derivatives, primarily options, resulting in a net realized gain of $104,635. The Company’s
short-term investments, primarily in marketable securities, contributed a realized net loss of $58,144 and unrealized net loss of $76,120
for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. These activities are part of the Company’s strategy to generate short-term returns
on excess cash.
During
the nine months ended September 30, 2024, we recognized income from the Indiana EDGE tax credit of $24,089 and no federal R&D tax
refunds. We also recognized income from a corporate card rebate program ($5,434). Interest expense and bank fees for the prior-year period
was $3,209.
Liquidity
and Capital Resources
Our
primary sources of liquidity are cash on hand, short-term liquid investments, and the Streeterville Purchase Agreement. As of September
30, 2025, our cash was $816,715, and short-term investments were $1,918,995. There is currently $32 million available under the Streeterville
Purchase Agreement.
The
balance of cash on-hand and short-term investments represents approximately three and one-half months of runway based on our current
average operating losses. Including the remaining proceeds from the Purchase Agreement, our currently available funds are sufficient
to fund operations with an increasing burn rate for more than twelve months.
- 38 -
Cash
Flow and Liquidity
Nine Months Ended
September 30,
$
%
2025
2024
Change
Change
Net cash provided by (used in):
Operating activities
$ (5,048,431 )
$ (1,959,447 )
$ (3,088,984 )
(158 )%
Investing activities
(2,036,474 )
-
(2,036,474 )
-
Financing activities
7,772,302
1,925,768
5,846,534
304
Net increase (decrease) in cash
$ 687,397
$ (33,679 )
$ 721,076
(2,141 )%
Operating
Activities (Restated)
Net
cash used in operating activities was $5,048,431 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $1,959,447 for the same period
in 2024. The increase in cash outflows of $3,088,984 was primarily due to our increased net loss.
For the nine months ended September 30,
2025, our net loss of $10,094,444 was offset by non-cash items of stock-based compensation expense of $2,322,155, depreciation and amortization
expense of $31,048, change in fair value of derivative liabilities of ($1,086,266), loss on conversion of convertible note payable of
$3,295,072, amortization of a discount on the convertible debt of $116,033, amortization of the $274,766 debt issuance costs, and unrealized
depreciation on investments of $76,120.
Other
working capital movements in the period resulted in a net cash inflow of $63,576, primarily due to an increase in accrued liabilities
($125,842), accounts payable ($43,148), credit card payable ($4,938), and other current assets ($3,458). These inflows were offset by
an increase in prepaid expenses of $108,910, accounts receivable of $4,900.
For
the nine months ended September 30, 2024, operating cash flow used of $1,959,447 was comprised of our net loss of $3,199,606, offset
by non-cash items of stock-based compensation expense of $880,120 and depreciation and amortization of $21,792. Working capital movements
in the prior-year period resulted in net cash inflows of $338,247 due to an increase in accounts payable of $408,485, accrued liabilities
of $21,889 offset by outflows due to prepaid expenses ($63,407) and the credit card payable ($28,720).
Investing
Activities
Net
cash used for investing activities was $2,036,474 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. This was due to an increase in fixed
assets for new Arrive Points placed into service or waiting final installation ($87,850). We also incurred a net cash outflow from sales
and purchases of short-term investments of $1,948,624. No fixed assets or other investing activities were recorded during the nine months
ended September 30, 2024.
Financing
Activities (Restated)
Net cash provided by financing activities
was $7,772,302 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. We received $8,000,000 in proceeds from issuance of convertible debt under
the Purchase Agreement. We received net proceeds of $448,056 from other sales of common stock and $573,896 from exercise of outstanding
warrants, prior to the direct listing. These cash inflows were offset by payments made on an outstanding note payable of $6,337, debt
issuance costs of $480,000 and payments for deferred offering costs of $688,570. We made purchases of our common stock under the share
repurchase program of $74,743 in the period.
For
the nine months ended September 30, 2024, net cash provided by financing activities was $1,925,768, which included $2,031,682 from sales
of common stock, offset by payments made on the notes payable of $5,914 and the payment of deferred offering costs of $100,000.
Item
3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
The
Company is not required to provide the information required by this Item because it is a “smaller reporting company.”
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