fair-value calculator // DCF · reverse DCF · GrahamFREE

What’s a stock actually worth?

Three classic estimates — a two-stage DCF, a reverse DCF, and the Graham number — computed from a company’s own SEC filings, with every assumption editable and every input shown. The opposite of a proprietary “fair value” you can’t check.

lumn · Lumen Technologies, Inc.Full workspace →
FAIR-VALUE RANGE
$8.59
CURRENT PRICE
$4.83
+78%
TWO-STAGE DCF
$8.59
+78% vs price
8% growth for 10y, 2.5% terminal, 9% discount
GRAHAM NUMBERBenjamin Graham's ceiling for a cautious buyer: the highest share price his 1949 rule allows, at 15 times earnings and 1.5 times book value combined. A yardstick, not a forecast.
not filed
√(22.5 × EPS × book value/share)
0.4%
FCF growth the current price implies for 10y. A low bar to clear.
YOUR ASSUMPTIONS — TWEAK ANYTHING
ASSUMPTION RECEIPTS: YOUR STAGE-1 GROWTH OF 8.0% AGAINST LUMN’S FILED RECORD
Free cash flow per share, realized
3 FILED YEARS
fiscal 2022 to 2025, through a year at or below zero
yours is 47.8 points higher
5 FILED YEARS
fiscal 2020 to 2025, through a year at or below zero
yours is 40.1 points higher
10 FILED YEARS
fiscal 2015 to 2025, through a year at or below zero
yours is 29.3 points higher
Diluted EPS, realized
3 FILED YEARS
Not computed. Diluted EPS was negative in fiscal 2022, where this window starts, so a growth rate is not defined.
5 FILED YEARS
Not computed. Diluted EPS was negative in fiscal 2020, where this window starts, so a growth rate is not defined.
10 FILED YEARS
Not computed. Diluted EPS was negative in fiscal 2025, so a growth rate is not defined.
The annual reports behind these rates
Free cash flow per shareThat yearYear before, same reportChangeReport
fiscal 20250.37 USD1.12 USD-66.6%10-K filed 2026-02-20
fiscal 20241.12 USD-0.96 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2025-02-20
fiscal 2023-0.96 USD1.71 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2024-02-22
fiscal 20221.71 USD3.38 USD-49.5%10-K filed 2023-02-23
fiscal 20213.38 USD2.59 USD+30.3%10-K filed 2022-02-24
fiscal 20202.59 USD2.85 USD-9.1%10-K filed 2021-02-25
fiscal 20192.85 USD3.62 USD-21.3%10-K filed 2020-02-28
fiscal 20183.62 USD1.23 USD+194.7%10-K filed 2019-03-11
fiscal 20171.23 USD3.01 USD-59.2%10-K filed 2018-03-01
fiscal 20163.01 USD4.11 USD-26.7%10-K filed 2017-02-23

Concepts read: (us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets) / us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding; (us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets) / us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding

Diluted EPSThat yearYear before, same reportChangeReport
fiscal 2025-1.75 USD-0.06 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2026-02-20
fiscal 2024-0.06 USD-10.48 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2025-02-20
fiscal 2023-10.48 USD-1.54 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2024-02-22
fiscal 2022-1.54 USD1.91 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2023-02-23
fiscal 20211.91 USD-1.14 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2022-02-24
fiscal 2020-1.14 USD-4.92 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2021-02-25
fiscal 2019-4.92 USD-1.63 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2020-02-28
fiscal 2018-1.63 USD2.21 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2019-03-11
fiscal 20172.21 USD1.16 USD+90.5%10-K filed 2018-03-01
fiscal 20161.16 USD1.58 USD-26.6%10-K filed 2017-02-23

Concepts read: us-gaap:EarningsPerShareDiluted

Per filed share, as each report states it. Free cash flow per share is operating cash flow less capital expenditure, over the diluted weighted average share count (or net income over diluted EPS where the count is tagged per share class).

Each year’s change comes from one annual report, which states that year and the year before on the same share basis, and the rate compounds those changes; so a split or a restatement between reports cannot bend it. A rate needs a positive figure at both ends of its window. The DCF above grows total free cash flow and divides by today’s share count, so a per-share rate also carries the buybacks or new shares of those years. These are past figures, not a forecast.

Not shown yet: the P/E range LUMN has traded at, which would set the discount rate and terminal assumptions against its own history. It needs a long daily price history we are not yet licensed to display.

SENSITIVITY: DCF VALUE PER SHARE

Stage-1 growth down the side, discount rate across the top, with terminal growth at 2.5% and 10 years of stage 1. Every cell runs the same two-stage DCF as the card above, so moving a slider moves the grid.

Growth ↓ Discount →7%8%9%10%11%
4%9.257.546.355.484.82
6%10.888.817.396.345.55
8%12.7810.308.597.356.40
10%15.0012.0410.008.517.39
12%17.6014.0611.639.868.52
Growth the close implies-4.0%-1.7%0.4%2.3%4.0%

Outlined: your current pair. Shaded: at or above the last close, 4.83 USD. The heavy line runs between the cells on either side of it.

Plain English for every number above. One AI generation, or free if someone already asked about these numbers.
THE INPUTS — FROM LUMN’S FILINGS, FY ENDING 2025-12-31
Free cash flow $371.0MShares 1.03BDiluted EPS $-1.75Book value/share $-1.08

Estimates, not targets. The DCF treats free cash flow as cash flow to equity and divides by shares (the common retail shortcut — it skips net debt and a full WACC), so it’s a sanity-check, not a valuation opinion. All inputs are from LUMN’s SEC filings; change any assumption above and the numbers update live. Educational only — not investment advice.

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A DCF is only as good as its assumptions — that’s exactly why every one here is yours to change. We treat free cash flow as cash flow to equity and divide by shares (the common retail shortcut; it skips net debt and a full WACC), so treat the output as a sanity-check range, not a valuation opinion. Inputs from SEC filings. Educational only — not investment advice.