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fair-value calculator // DCF · reverse DCF · GrahamFREE

What’s a stock actually worth?

Three classic estimates — a two-stage DCF, a reverse DCF, and the Graham number — computed from a company’s own SEC filings, with every assumption editable and every input shown. The opposite of a proprietary “fair value” you can’t check.

agx · ARGAN INCFull workspace →
FAIR-VALUE RANGE
$84.97 to $699.58
CURRENT PRICE
$334.12
MARGIN OF SAFETY (vs mid)
+17%
TWO-STAGE DCF
$699.58
+109% vs price
8% growth for 10y, 2.5% terminal, 9% discount
GRAHAM NUMBERBenjamin Graham's ceiling for a cautious buyer: the highest share price his 1949 rule allows, at 15 times earnings and 1.5 times book value combined. A yardstick, not a forecast.
$84.97
-75% vs price
√(22.5 × EPS × book value/share)
REVERSE DCF
-1.8%
FCF growth the current price implies for 10y. A low bar to clear.
YOUR ASSUMPTIONS — TWEAK ANYTHING
ASSUMPTION RECEIPTS: YOUR STAGE-1 GROWTH OF 8.0% AGAINST AGX’S FILED RECORD
Free cash flow per share, realized
3 FILED YEARS
Not computed. Free cash flow per share was negative in fiscal 2023, where this window starts, so a growth rate is not defined.
5 FILED YEARS
+21.4% a year
fiscal 2021 to 2026, through a year at or below zero
yours is 13.4 points lower
10 FILED YEARS
Not computed. Free cash flow per share was negative in fiscal 2016, where this window starts, so a growth rate is not defined.
Diluted EPS, realized
3 FILED YEARS
+61.1% a year
fiscal 2023 to 2026
yours is 53.1 points lower
5 FILED YEARS
+45.2% a year
fiscal 2021 to 2026
yours is 37.2 points lower
10 FILED YEARS
+14.9% a year
fiscal 2016 to 2026, through a year at or below zero
yours is 6.9 points lower
The annual reports behind these rates
Free cash flow per shareThat yearYear before, same reportChangeReport
fiscal 202629.04 USD11.58 USD+150.8%10-K filed 2026-03-26
fiscal 202511.58 USD8.42 USD+37.5%10-K filed 2025-03-27
fiscal 20248.42 USD-2.36 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2024-04-11
fiscal 2023-2.36 USD1.70 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2023-04-17
fiscal 20221.70 USD11.02 USD-84.6%10-K filed 2022-04-13
fiscal 202110.93 USD2.98 USD+267.2%10-K filed 2021-04-14
fiscal 20202.98 USD-7.71 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2020-04-14
fiscal 2019-7.71 USD-4.92 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2019-04-10
fiscal 2018-4.92 USD16.40 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2018-04-11
fiscal 201716.40 USD-2.41 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2017-04-11

Concepts read: (us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment) / us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding

Diluted EPSThat yearYear before, same reportChangeReport
fiscal 20269.74 USD6.15 USD+58.4%10-K filed 2026-03-26
fiscal 20256.15 USD2.39 USD+157.3%10-K filed 2025-03-27
fiscal 20242.39 USD2.33 USD+2.6%10-K filed 2024-04-11
fiscal 20232.33 USD2.40 USD-2.9%10-K filed 2023-04-17
fiscal 20222.40 USD1.51 USD+58.9%10-K filed 2022-04-13
fiscal 20211.51 USD-2.73 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2021-04-14
fiscal 2020-2.73 USD3.32 USDnot a growth rate (a year at or below zero)10-K filed 2020-04-14
fiscal 20193.32 USD4.56 USD-27.2%10-K filed 2019-04-10
fiscal 20184.56 USD4.50 USD+1.3%10-K filed 2018-04-11
fiscal 20174.50 USD2.42 USD+86.0%10-K filed 2017-04-11

Concepts read: us-gaap:EarningsPerShareDiluted

Per filed share, as each report states it. Free cash flow per share is operating cash flow less capital expenditure, over the diluted weighted average share count (or net income over diluted EPS where the count is tagged per share class).

Each year’s change comes from one annual report, which states that year and the year before on the same share basis, and the rate compounds those changes; so a split or a restatement between reports cannot bend it. A rate needs a positive figure at both ends of its window. The DCF above grows total free cash flow and divides by today’s share count, so a per-share rate also carries the buybacks or new shares of those years. These are past figures, not a forecast.

Not shown yet: the P/E range AGX has traded at, which would set the discount rate and terminal assumptions against its own history. It needs a long daily price history we are not yet licensed to display.

SENSITIVITY: DCF VALUE PER SHARE

Stage-1 growth down the side, discount rate across the top, with terminal growth at 2.5% and 10 years of stage 1. Every cell runs the same two-stage DCF as the card above, so moving a slider moves the grid.

Growth ↓ Discount →7%8%9%10%11%
4%753.18613.52516.98446.30392.35
6%885.43717.30601.29516.54451.98
8%1,040.35838.57699.58598.21521.14
10%1,221.48980.03813.96693.04601.28
12%1,432.811,144.73946.86803.00694.00
Growth the close implies-6.1%-3.8%-1.8%-0.0%1.7%

Outlined: your current pair. Shaded: at or above the last close, 334.12 USD. The heavy line runs between the cells on either side of it.

Plain English for every number above. One AI generation, or free if someone already asked about these numbers.
THE INPUTS — FROM AGX’S FILINGS, FY ENDING 2026-01-31
Free cash flow $410.8MShares 0.01BDiluted EPS $9.74Book value/share $32.95

Estimates, not targets. The DCF treats free cash flow as cash flow to equity and divides by shares (the common retail shortcut — it skips net debt and a full WACC), so it’s a sanity-check, not a valuation opinion. All inputs are from AGX’s SEC filings; change any assumption above and the numbers update live. Educational only — not investment advice.

your saved valuations // stale when a newer filing changes an input

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A DCF is only as good as its assumptions — that’s exactly why every one here is yours to change. We treat free cash flow as cash flow to equity and divide by shares (the common retail shortcut; it skips net debt and a full WACC), so treat the output as a sanity-check range, not a valuation opinion. Inputs from SEC filings. Educational only — not investment advice.