Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)

CIK 1852551 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed sub-ratings (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGH$217M registered
= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)
one or more live registrations had no structured fee data, so the true total is AT LEAST this
Overhead supply
LOWwarrants = 2% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
LOW-86% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
LOW~36.5 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2024-10-292026-10-23

Latest: 38.2M shares as of Oct 23, 2026 (10-K/A).

⊙
EVIDENCE — filed/published fact
SourceSEC XBRL, cover-page share count
Fielddei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding
As of2026-10-23
HowThe newest cover-page count as filed. It is used as the current count only while it is no more than about 15 months older than the company’s newest periodic filing; the float checker applies a 200-day rule and sets it beside the balance-sheet count.
Open the source document →
Share count fell from 401.5M to 38.2M between Sep 19, 2025 and Sep 30, 2026, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-11); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool

Warrants

Warrants outstanding: 594,625 underlying shares, as reported Jun 30, 2026 (10-K).

Reported exercise price: $1.4532 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Rough fully diluted estimate: 38.8M = 38.2M O/S + 594,625 warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

No convertible-note facts tagged in the 10-K filed Sep 30, 2026. If convertible notes exist, their terms live in exhibit prose for this filer and are not parsed; absence of a tag is not proof of absence. The exhibits are the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding38.2MOct 23, 2026
+ Warrants (aggregate, as tagged) (if exercised)594,625Jun 30, 2026
Fully diluted estimate38.8M+1.6% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $216.6Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

F-3Dec 11, 2025$200.0M registeredfiling →
F-1Jul 3, 2025$16.6M registeredfiling →
F-1Sep 19, 2024no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →

Last 12 months: 2 executed · 1 registered.

EFFECTIVEJun 22, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
EXECUTEDDec 19, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →
EXECUTEDDec 17, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →
EFFECTIVEDec 17, 2025SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
REGISTEREDDec 11, 2025F-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetF-3 →
EXECUTEDJul 15, 2025Final prospectus — offering priced (typical for IPOs and marketed share deals)424B4 →
EFFECTIVEJul 14, 2025SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
REGISTEREDJul 3, 2025F-1 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetF-1 →
EXECUTEDSep 25, 2024Final prospectus — offering priced (typical for IPOs and marketed share deals)424B4 →
EXECUTEDSep 24, 2024Final prospectus — offering priced (typical for IPOs and marketed share deals)424B4 →
EFFECTIVESep 23, 2024SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
REGISTEREDSep 19, 2024F-1 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetF-1 →

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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