Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk.
In the normal course of business, we are exposed to market risks, including changes in interest rates, certain commodity prices and currency rates. From time to time, we use derivatives to manage some portion of these risks. As of December 31, 2025 our outstanding derivatives were immaterial.
Interest Rate Exposure — Our exposure to market risk for changes in interest rates relates primarily to our financing activities. As of December 31, 2025 and 2024, we had $22.9 billion and $24.1 billion, respectively, of long-term debt, excluding the impacts of accounting for debt issuance costs, discounts and fair value adjustments attributable to terminated interest rate derivatives. As of December 31, 2025, we have $2.9 billion of debt that is exposed to changes in market interest rates within the next 12 months, compared to $2.7 million as of December 31, 2024, comprised primarily of (i) $1.1 billion of short-term borrowings under our commercial paper program and (ii) $1.8 billion of tax-exempt bonds with term interest rate periods that expire within the next 12 months. We currently estimate that a 100-basis point increase in the interest rates of our outstanding variable-rate debt obligations would increase our 2025 interest expense by $35 million.
Our remaining outstanding debt obligations have fixed interest rates through either the scheduled maturity of the debt or, for certain of our fixed-rate tax-exempt bonds, through the end of a term interest rate period that exceeds 12 months. The fair value of our fixed-rate debt obligations can increase or decrease significantly if market interest rates change.
We performed a sensitivity analysis to determine how market rate changes might affect the fair value of our market risk-sensitive debt instruments. This analysis is inherently limited because it reflects a singular, hypothetical set of assumptions. Actual market movements may vary significantly from our assumptions. An instantaneous, 100-basis point increase in interest rates across all maturities attributable to these instruments would have decreased the fair value of our debt by approximately $0.8 billion as of December 31, 2025.
We are also exposed to interest rate market risk from our cash and cash equivalent balances, as well as assets held in restricted trust fund accounts. These assets are generally invested in high-quality, liquid instruments including money market funds that invest in U.S. government obligations with original maturities of three months or less. We believe that our exposure to changes in fair value of these assets due to interest rate fluctuations is insignificant as the fair value generally approximates our cost basis. We also invest a portion of our restricted trust fund account balances in available-for-sale securities, including U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. agency securities, municipal securities, mortgage- and asset-backed securities, which generally mature over the next ten years, as well as equity securities.
Commodity Price Exposure — In the normal course of our business, we are subject to operating agreements that expose us to market risks arising from changes in the prices for commodities such as diesel fuel, natural gas, electricity (and related renewable energy credits) and recycled materials, including old corrugated cardboard and plastics. We work to manage these risks through operational strategies that focus on capturing our costs in the prices we charge our customers for the services provided. Accordingly, as the market prices for these commodities increase or decrease, our revenues, operating costs and margins may also increase or decrease. Recycling revenues attributable to yield decreased $166 million and increased $245 million in 2025 and 2024, respectively, as compared to prior year periods. During 2025, we experienced decreases in market prices for recycled commodities when compared to prior year caused by a number of factors, including the closure of domestic paper mills, a decrease in demand for recycled content by certain consumer goods producers, focused reduction in cardboard packaging and overall market conditions. Average market prices for single-stream recycled commodities were down 20% and up 50% in 2025 and 2024, respectively, as compared to prior year periods. Variability in commodity prices can also impact the margins of our business as certain components of our revenue are structured as a pass through of costs, including recycling brokerage and fuel surcharges.
In recent years, we have discussed our sustainability growth strategy that includes significant planned and ongoing investments in our Renewable Energy segment. We have invested, and continue to invest, in facilities to capture methane produced from the Company’s landfills and process it into RNG and electricity. RNG produced from our landfills constitutes a significant source of fuel allocated to our natural gas collection vehicles. The primary drivers of renewable fuel development at our landfills are tax policies, such as federal tax credits for investments in RNG under the IRA and OBBBA, and federal and state incentive programs, such as the federal RFS program, California’s Low Carbon Fuel
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Standard and similar state programs that promote the production and use of renewable transportation fuels. At the federal level, oil refiners and importers are required through the RFS program to blend specified volumes of various categories of renewable transportation fuels with gasoline or buy credits, referred to as RINs, from renewable fuel producers. Many of our facilities are EPA-registered producers of transportation fuel making compressed and liquefied RNG from landfill biogas, which qualifies as a cellulosic biofuel under the RFS program. The Company has invested, and continues to invest, in facilities that capture and process landfill gas into RNG so that we can participate in the RFS program, and the Company has grown and stated its intention to continue to grow its asset base to increase its RNG production.
RINs prices generally respond to regulations enacted by the EPA, as well as fluctuations in supply and demand. The value of the RINs is set through a market established by the RFS program, which market has historically been volatile. Prior to 2022, the EPA had promulgated rules on an annual basis establishing refiners’ obligations to purchase RNG and other cellulosic biofuels under the RFS program, which introduced a level of uncertainty into the renewable fuels and RINs market. However, in 2023, the EPA issued a highly anticipated rule establishing biofuel blending volumes under the RFS program for compliance years 2023 through 2025. The rule reflected the outsized role of biogas under the program, delivered on many reforms that benefit the solid waste sector, and recognized the continued growth of the market for RNG in vehicle applications. The current U.S. presidential administration, meanwhile, revisited and retroactively lowered the 2024 blending volumes, has proposed to revisit and lower the 2025 standards, has proposed low volumes for compliance years 2026 and 2027 and departed from the previous administration in granting small refinery exemptions from RFS program requirements. We do not yet know how these changes may impact the demand for renewable fuels and the value of RINs. In an effort to mitigate against such risk and stabilize our RNG portfolio, we are pursuing long-term sales transactions in the voluntary market. We continue to advocate for policies that could reduce the potential for volatility in the RINs market and ensure long-term stability for renewable transportation fuels, as changes in the RINs market or the structure of the RFS program can and has impacted the financial performance of our facilities. Such changes could impact or alter our projected future investments, and such investments may not yield the results anticipated. Revenue in our Renewable Energy segment attributable to yield increased $11 million and $26 million in 2025 and 2024, respectively, as compared to prior year periods, primarily driven by the fluctuations in energy and RIN market prices.
The Company’s sustainability growth strategy also is informed by the increased adoption of state and Canadian clean fuel standard programs, utility policies, and voluntary market demand for RNG in transportation and industrial applications. Clean fuel standard programs, originally developed in California and subsequently adopted in Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico, establish annual carbon intensity benchmarks for transportation fuels that decrease over time. A similar program has been adopted in Canada under the Clean Fuel Regulations. These programs operate similar to the RFS program in that certain regulated parties purchase credits from fuel producers, including RNG producers, to meet their carbon intensity obligations. Like RINs, clean fuel standard program credit values can fluctuate with policy and market dynamics. As such, we are advocating for existing programs to adopt measures to promote stability in credit pricing and for other states to adopt similar programs that incentivize the growth in RNG. We also are working closely with stakeholders to encourage the voluntary market for RNG demand, including utility RNG procurement programs, and sustainability protocols, as companies and other customers increasingly look to reduce their GHG emissions profiles. However, these state and voluntary programs may be altered, paused, or otherwise revoked by the applicable governmental authorities or as result of legal challenges.
Currency Rate Exposure — Our operations are primarily in the U.S. but we also have significant operations in Canada and certain countries in Europe. Additionally, we have certain support functions in India. Where significant, we have quantified and described the impact of foreign currency translation on components of income, including operating revenues and operating expenses. However, the impact of foreign currency has not materially affected our results of operations.
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