Item 1A. Risk Factors
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
The following risk factor supplements the risk factors set forth in our 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on March 12, 2021. Except to the extent updated below or previously updated, or to the extent additional factual information disclosed elsewhere in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q relates to such risk factors (including, without limitation, the matters discussed in “Part I, Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations”), there were no material changes to the risk factors disclosed in “Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors” of our 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 12, 2021.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has had, and is expected to continue to have, a negative effect on our and our Neighbors’ businesses, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, and liquidity.
In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused, and is expected to continue to cause, significant disruptions to the United States and global economy and has contributed to significant volatility and negative pressure in financial markets. The global impact of the outbreak is continually evolving and, as additional cases of the virus are identified, many countries, including the United States, reacted by instituting quarantines, restrictions on travel, and/or mandatory closures of businesses. Certain states and cities, including where our properties are located, also reacted by instituting quarantines, restrictions on travel, “shelter-in-place” or “stay-at-home” rules, restrictions on types of business es that may continue to operate, and/or restrictions on the types of construction projects that may continue. In May 2020, many state and local governments began lifting, in whole or in part, the “stay-at-home” mandates, effectively removing or lessening the limitations on travel and allowing many businesses to reopen in full or limited capacity.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted our business and financial performance, and we expect this impact to continue. Our retail and service-based tenants (whom we refer to as a “Neighbor” or our “Neighbors”) depend on in-person interactions with their customers to generate unit-level profitability, and the COVID-19 pandemic has decreased, and may continue to decrease, customers’ willingness to frequent, and mandated “shelter-in-place” or “stay-at-home” orders may prevent customers from frequenting our Neighbors’ businesses, which may result in their inability to maintain profitability and make timely rental payments to us under their leases or to otherwise seek lease modifications or to declare bankruptcy. At the peak of the pandemic-related closure activity, for our wholly-owned properties and those owned through our joint ventures, our temporary closures reached approximately 37% of all Neighbor spaces, totaling 27% of our annualized base rent (“ABR”) and 22% of our gross leasable area (“GLA”). All temporarily closed Neighbors have since been permitted to reopen; however, a portion of our Neighbors have permanently closed, and we are working to backfill these spaces. Some may be limiting the number of customers allowed in their stores, or have modified their operations in other ways that may impact their profitability, either as a result of government mandates or self-elected efforts to reduce the spread of COVID-19. These actions, as well as the continuing economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, could result in increased permanent store closures. In addition to the permanent closures that have occurred in our portfolio, this could reduce the demand for leasing space in our shopping centers and result in a decline in average rental rates on expiring leases.
While most of our Neighbors have reopened, we cannot presently determine how many of the Neighbors that remain closed will reopen, or whether a portion of those that have reopened will be required by government mandates to temporarily close again or will encounter financial difficulties that require them to close permanently. We believe substantially all Neighbors, including those that were required to temporarily close under governmental mandates, are contractually obligated to continue with their rent payments as documented in our lease agreements with them. However, we believe it is best to begin negotiation of relief only once a Neighbor has reopened and made payments toward rent and recovery charges accrued. Inclusive of our prorated share of properties owned through our joint ventures, as of April 20, 2021, we have $5.4 million of outstanding payment plans with our Neighbors, and we had recorded rent abatements of approximately $4.4 million during
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2021. These payment plans and rent abatements represented 1.4% and 1.1% of portfolio ABR, respectively, and the weighted-average term over which we expect to receive remaining amounts owed on executed payment plans is approximately 13 months. We are still actively pursuing past due amounts under the terms negotiated with our Neighbors. We are in negotiations with additional Neighbors, which we believe will lead to more Neighbors repaying their past due charges. As of April 20, 2021, we have collected approximately 95% of rent and recoveries billed during the second through fourth quarters of 2020, and approximately 95% of rent and recoveries billed during the first quarter of 2021. In the event of any default by a Neighbor under its lease agreement or relief agreement, we may not be able to fully recover, and/or may experience delays in recovering and additional costs in enforcing our rights as landlord to recover, amounts due to us under the terms of the lease agreement and/or relief agreement. Additionally, certain Neighbors have declared bankruptcy as a result of the effects of the pandemic. As of March 31, 2021, we have several Neighbors in bankruptcy proceedings where we have not yet received notice that the lease has been assumed or rejected, representing an exposure of approximately 1% of our total ABR.
Moreover, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, restrictions intended to prevent and mitigate its spread, resulting consumer behavior, and the economic slowdown or recession could have additional adverse effects on our business, including with regards to:
• the ability and willingness of our Neighbors to renew their leases upon expiration, our ability to re-lease the properties on the same or better terms in the event of nonrenewal or in the event we exercise our right to replace an existing Neighbor, and obligations we may incur in connection with the replacement of an existing Neighbor, particularly in light of the adverse impact to the financial health of many retailers and service providers that has occurred and continues to occur as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the significant uncertainty as to when and the conditions under which certain potential Neighbors will be able to operate physical retail locations in the future;
• a potential sustained or permanent increase in online shopping instead of shopping at physical retail properties, thereby reducing demand for space in our shopping centers and possible related reductions in rent or increased costs to lease space;
• the adverse impact of current economic conditions on the market value of our real estate portfolio and our third-party investment management business, and consequently on the estimated value per share of our common stock;
• the adverse impact of the current economic conditions on our ability to effect a liquidity event at an attractive price or at all in the near term and for a potentially lengthy period of time;
• the financial impact and continued economic uncertainty that could continue to negatively impact our ability to pay distributions to our stockholders and/or to repurchase shares;
• to the extent we were seeking to sell properties in the near term, significantly greater uncertainty regarding our ability to do so at attractive prices or at all;
• anticipated returns from development and redevelopment projects, which have been prioritized to support the reopening of our Neighbors and new leasing activity, or deferred if possible;
• the broader impact of the severe economic contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the resulting increase in unemployment that has occurred in the short-term and its effect on consumer behavior, and negative consequences that will occur if these trends are not reversed in a timely way;
• state, local, or industry-initiated efforts, such as a rent freeze for Neighbors or a suspension of a landlord’s ability to enforce evictions, which may affect our ability to collect rent or enforce remedies for the failure to pay rent;
• severe disruption and instability in the global financial markets or deteriorations in credit and financing conditions, which could make it difficult for us to access debt and equity capital on attractive terms, or at all, and impact our ability to fund business operations and activities and repay liabilities on a timely basis;
• our ability to pay down, refinance, restructure, or extend our indebtedness as it becomes due, and our potential inability to comply with the financial covenants of our credit facility and other debt agreements, which could result in a default and potential acceleration of indebtedness and impact our ability to make additional borrowings under our credit facility or otherwise in the future; and
• the potential negative impact on the health of our personnel, particularly if a significant number of them and/or key personnel are impacted, and the potential impact of adaptations to our operations in order to protect our personnel, such as remote work arrangements, could introduce operational risk, including but not limited to cybersecurity risks, and could impair our ability to manage our business.
We may in the future choose to pay distributions in shares of our common stock rather than solely in cash, which may result in our stockholders having a tax liability with respect to such distributions that exceeds the amount of cash received, if any.
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While the rapid developments regarding the COVID-19 pandemic preclude any prediction as to its ultimate adverse impact, the current economic, political, and social environment presents material risks and uncertainties with respect to our and our Neighbors’ business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, liquidity, and ability to satisfy debt service obligations. Moreover, to the extent any of these risks and uncertainties adversely impact us in the ways described above or otherwise, they may also have the effect of heightening many of the other risks described under the section entitled “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020.
Actual incremental yields for our development and redevelopment projects may vary from our underwritten incremental yield range.
As part of our standard development and redevelopment underwriting process, we analyze the yield for each project and establish a range of target yields (“underwritten incremental yields”). Underwritten incremental yields reflect the yield we target to generate from each project upon expected stabilization and are calculated as the estimated incremental NOI for a project at stabilization divided by its estimated net project investment. The estimated incremental NOI is the difference between the estimated annualized NOI we target to generate from a project upon stabilization and the estimated annualized NOI without the planned improvements. Underwritten incremental yield does not include peripheral impacts, such as lease rollover risk or the impact on the long term value of the property upon sale or disposition.
Underwritten incremental yields are based solely on our estimates, using data available to us in our development and redevelopment underwriting processes. The actual total cost to complete a development or redevelopment project may differ substantially from our estimates due to various factors, including unanticipated expenses, delays in the estimated start and/or completion date of planned development projects, effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and other contingencies. In addition, the actual incremental NOI from our planned development and redevelopment activities may differ substantially from our estimates based on numerous other factors, including delays and/or difficulties in leasing and stabilizing a development or redevelopment project, failure to obtain estimated occupancy and rental rates, inability to collect anticipated rental revenues, Neighbor bankruptcies, and unanticipated expenses that we cannot pass on to our Neighbors. Actual incremental yields may vary from our underwritten incremental yield range based on the actual total cost to complete a project and its incremental NOI at stabilization.
We and the Operating Partnership entered into a tax protection agreement with certain protected partners, which may limit the Operating Partnership’s ability to sell or otherwise dispose of certain properties and may require the Operating Partnership to maintain certain debt levels that otherwise would not be required to operate its business.
We and our consolidated subsidiary, Phillips Edison Grocery Center Operating Partnership I, L.P. (the “Operating Partnership”), entered into a tax protection agreement with, among others, Jeffrey S. Edison, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and certain entities controlled by him at the closing of a transaction in May 2017 pursuant to which we internalized our management structure through the acquisition of certain real estate assets and the third party investment management business of Phillips Edison Limited Partnership in exchange for ownership units of the Operating Partnership and cash. Pursuant to this tax protection agreement, if the Operating Partnership: (i) sells, exchanges, transfers or otherwise disposes of certain properties in a taxable transaction, or undertakes any taxable merger, combination, consolidation or similar transaction (including a transfer of all or substantially all assets), for a period of ten years commencing on October 4, 2017; or (ii) fails, prior to the expiration of such period, to maintain certain minimum levels of indebtedness that would be allocable to each protected partner for tax purposes or, under certain circumstances, fails to offer such protected partners the opportunity to guarantee certain types of the Operating Partnership’s indebtedness, then the Operating Partnership will indemnify each affected protected partner, including our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Jeffrey S. Edison, against certain resulting tax liabilities. Our tax indemnification obligations include a tax gross-up.
Therefore, although it may be in our stockholders’ best interest for us to cause the Operating Partnership to sell, exchange, transfer or otherwise dispose of one of these properties, it may be economically prohibitive for us to do so until the expiration of the protection period in 2027 because of these indemnity obligations. Moreover, these obligations may require us to cause the Operating Partnership to maintain more or different indebtedness than we would otherwise require for our business. As a result, the tax protection agreement could, during its term, restrict our ability to take actions or make decisions that otherwise would be in our best interests.
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Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.