NMI Holdings, Inc. 10-Q

Item 1A. Risk Factors Risk factors that affect our business and financial results are discussed in Part I, Item 1A of our 2019 10-K. As of the date of this report, other than as included below, we are not aware of any material changes in our risk factors from the risk factors disclosed in our 2019 10-K. You should carefully consider the risks and uncertainties described herein and in our 2019 10-K, which have the potential to affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows or prospects in a material and adverse manner. The risks described herein and in our 2019 10-K are not the only risks we face, as there are additional risks and uncertainties not currently known to us or that we currently deem to be immaterial which may in the future adversely affect our business, financial condition and/or operating results. The COVID-19 outbreak could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. We continue to closely monitor developments related to the COVID-19 pandemic to assess its impact on our business. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. federal government and certain U.S. states have adopted numerous measures to contain the virus, such as travel bans and restrictions, quarantines, shelter-in-place orders, social-distancing measures and business shut-downs. The COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have had, and are expected to continue to have, a substantial negative impact on nearly every sector of the U.S. economy and on the financial, capital and credit markets. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been a number of governmental and GSE efforts to implement programs designed to assist individuals and businesses impacted by the virus. On March 27, 2020, the U.S. Congress enacted the CARES Act. The CARES Act provides financial assistance for businesses and individuals and targeted regulatory relief for financial institutions. Among many other things, the CARES Act suspended foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days from March 18, 2020, on mortgages purchased or securitized by the GSEs, which moratorium has been extended by the GSEs through at least December 31, 2020 and may be further extended. In addition, the CARES Act enacts into law a requirement to provide payment forbearance on mortgages to borrowers experiencing hardship during the COVID-19 emergency. Forbearance under the CARES Act allows for a mortgage payment to be suspended for up to 360 days due to hardship caused by COVID-19. The CARES Act also provides for enhanced unemployment benefits, direct aid to individuals in the form of refundable tax credit rebates and increased flexibility under retirement plans, among other things. The GSEs, the primary purchasers of mortgages we insure, have also adopted certain measures to assist borrowers impacted by COVID-19. Consistent with the CARES Act, the GSEs will provide a forbearance plan to any borrower who requests a forbearance with an attestation of the financial hardship, directly or indirectly caused by the COVID-19 emergency; and no additional documentation other than the borrower's attestation to a financial hardship caused by the COVID-19 emergency is required. Borrowers that avail themselves of forbearance relief will not incur interest or late fees on deferred amounts. In addition, the GSEs have announced that, at the end of a forbearance plan, the affected borrower will not be required to pay back their 59 reduced or suspended mortgage payments in one lump sum, but may be eligible for a number of different options offered by their mortgage servicer depending on their financial situation, including: • if the borrower is unable to repay their deferred payments all at once and can afford to pay a higher monthly mortgage payment for a period of time, the borrower may be eligible for a repayment plan that allows them to repay past due amounts over a period of time; • if the borrower can afford to resume their monthly mortgage payment, they may be eligible for a payment deferral in which missed mortgage payments are due at the sale or refinancing of the home or are moved to the end of the maturity of the loan; and • if the borrower has a sustained reduction in income and is unable to afford their regular monthly mortgage payment, they may be eligible for a loan modification that changes the terms of the mortgage loan to enable an affordable payment, including through a change to the maturity and amortization schedule of the mortgage loan. Due to the evolving and highly uncertain nature of this crisis, it is too soon to fully assess or predict the ultimate impact COVID-19 will have on the markets in which we operate and on our business, but we believe it will be material and could adversely affect our business, operations and financial condition. We are currently unable to estimate precisely the magnitude of the impact that the pandemic will ultimately have on our business, operations and financial condition. We believe there are or will be a range of adverse effects on our markets, customers and new business, revenues, loss development and related impacts to our capital needs, employee health and productivity, investment portfolio performance, and ability to access capital and reinsurance markets in the future if we need to. In turn, these impacts may cause changes, which also cannot be precisely determined at this time, to our estimates of future earnings and other guidance we have provided to the markets. In particular, we believe we will experience the following impacts, among others: • Containment measures implemented to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic could adversely impact our ability to continue to conduct our business. Although we have been able to continue operations under our business continuity program, the spread of COVID-19 could negatively impact a significant number of our employees and the availability of key personnel necessary to conduct our business activities. Such a spread or outbreak could also negatively impact the business and operations of our customers and critical third-party service providers. Further, extreme market volatility may leave us unable to react to market events in a manner consistent with our historical practices in dealing with more orderly markets. • The COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures could also affect the number of new mortgages available for us to insure. Our NIW volume and future revenues are significantly dependent on the volume of high-LTV loan originations. If there is a significant decline in our NIW, our future revenue could be negatively impacted. • Mortgage delinquencies are typically affected by a variety of factors, including illness, death, unemployment and other life events, among others, many of which are likely exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. While there are efforts underway to combat the spread and severity of COVID-19 and the related economic impacts, these measures may be ineffective in mitigating the spike in defaults we have received as a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is unclear how many borrowers will obtain forbearance plans, the length of assistance borrowers will require, and whether borrowers will be able to resume their mortgage payments thereafter. Increases in unemployment as well as borrowers entering into forbearance plans could result in further increases in the defaults we receive in the near term. In addition, as a result of COVID-19-related relief programs, the defaults related to the pandemic, if not cured, could remain in our default inventory for a protracted period of time, potentially resulting in higher levels of claim severity for those loans that ultimately result in claims. There may be additional, extended or extensive forbearance programs or other changes in regulations or laws which may adversely impact us. • We include a loan in our default population and establish loss reserves on such loan when we have received notice from the servicer that as of a particular payment date, the borrower has missed the preceding two or more consecutive monthly payments. In addition, PMIERs generally requires us to treat such loans as non-performing, which then increases the capital we are required to hold against such loans. Under PMIERs, non-performing loans that have missed two or more payments are generally assessed a significantly higher capital charge than performing loans. The GSEs issued PMIERs guidance in June 2020 (subsequently amended and restated in September 2020) on the risk-based treatment of loans affected by the COVID-19 crisis (COVID Guidance). The GSEs clarified that for each non-performing loan that: i) has an initial missed payment (as defined in the COVID Guidance) occurring on or after March 1, 2020 and prior to January 1, 2021 (COVID-19 Crisis Period); or ii) is subject to a forbearance plan granted in response to a financial hardship related to COVID-19 (which shall be assumed to be the case for any loan that has an initial missed payment (as defined in the COVID Guidance) occurring during the COVID-19 Crisis Period and is subject to a forbearance plan), the PMIERs charge on such non-performing loans is adjusted by a 30% 60 multiplier (inversely, a 70% haircut). As such, the PMIERs risk-based required asset charge for all newly delinquent loans nationwide (including those that go delinquent under a forbearance program) are reduced by 70%. Under the COVID Guidance, non-performing loans that are subject to a forbearance program granted in response to a financial hardship related to COVID-19 will benefit from the risk-based required asset haircut for the duration of the forbearance period and subsequent repayment plan or trial modification period. As a result of costs incurred in connection with rising defaults associated with the COVID-19 crisis, the impact to our capital needs and incurred losses could be material and adversely impact our NIW opportunity and our business, results of operations and financial condition. • Whether delinquencies ultimately result in claims will depend on a variety of factors, including the length of the crisis and ultimate success of forbearance, government stimulus and other initiatives established to assist homeowners with curing their delinquencies. Due to the inherent uncertainty and significant judgment involved in our assumptions when we establish loss estimates for loans in default, they may turn out to be materially inaccurate and we can provide no assurance that actual claims paid by us, if any, with respect to defaults arising from the pandemic will not be substantially more than the reserves we establish for such defaults. • Our master policies require insureds to file a claim no later than 60-days after completion of a foreclosure, and in connection with the claim, the insured is generally entitled to include in the claim amount (i) interest (capped at three years) and (ii) certain advances, each as incurred through the date the claim is filed. Under our master policies, a national foreclosure moratorium of the type currently required will not limit the amount of accrued interest (subject to the three-year limit) or advances that may be included in the claim amount. If the duration of the current foreclosure moratorium mandated by the GSEs is continued beyond December 31, 2020 for an extended period of time, loans in our default inventory, including those with defaults unrelated to the COVID-19 crisis that had not yet gone through foreclosure, may remain in a pre-foreclosure default status for a prolonged period of time, which would delay our receipt of certain claims for loans that do not cure and could increase the severity of claims we may ultimately be required to pay after the moratorium is lifted. • Home values could materially decline as a result of a persistent economic downturn arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. Depreciation in the values of properties underpinning our insured loans may increase the likelihood of default and negatively impact borrowers' abilities to sell their properties for amounts sufficient to cover their unpaid principal. In turn, the frequency or severity of losses we may incur would be negatively impacted. • Servicers of our insured loans could experience liquidity impacts, which may affect their willingness and/or ability to continue to pay premiums to us. Although our master policies do not require payment of premiums after a loan has gone into default, most servicers continue to remit premiums to us to avoid a lapse in coverage if the borrower cures the default; however, in the current environment, it remains uncertain whether servicers will continue to do so. As set forth in the COVID Guidance, during the COVID-19 Crisis Period, if one or more servicers are unable to continue to remit premiums on loans in default, we, and other GSE-approved mortgage insurers, have agreed to notify the relevant GSE and give such GSE the opportunity to pay the premium to keep the coverage in force. Notwithstanding our agreement with the GSEs, if there are wide-spread servicer liquidity issues and the GSEs choose not to remit premiums, we could experience adverse impacts to our liquidity, which could be material. • Our investment portfolio (and, specifically, the valuations of investment assets we hold) has been, and may continue to be, adversely affected as a result of market deterioration caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and uncertainty regarding its outcome. • The COVID-19 pandemic initially caused significant volatility and disruption to the financial, capital and reinsurance markets and such volatility may continue, making access to such markets difficult. To the extent that our current sources of income and capitalization are insufficient to meet GSE and state capital requirements (respectively, as defined therein) or to fund our future operations, we would need to raise additional funds through future financing activities, including through the issuance of additional debt, equity, or a combination of both, reduce our RIF, including through additional reinsurance, or curtail our growth and reduce our expenses. We can give no assurance that any such efforts to raise capital, obtain additional reinsurance or otherwise reduce our RIF would be successful. If we cannot obtain adequate capital, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected. For the reasons described above, it is uncertain at this time what impact the COVID-19 crisis will ultimately have on our revenues, losses, expenses, required assets under PMIERs, statutory and GAAP capital, and liquidity, and that impact may be material and adverse over time. The ultimate significance of COVID-19 on our business will depend on, among other things: the extent and duration of, and severity of illness caused by, the pandemic; the effects on the economy and the time it takes to stabilize; the extent and duration of current and future containment measures implemented by governmental authorities; current 61 and future governmental assistance programs; and the long-term impact on the mortgage origination and mortgage insurance markets. While at this time we cannot estimate the short or long-term impacts of COVID-19 on our business, the above and other factors, including those set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" contained in our 2019 10-K could have a material adverse effect on our business, liquidity, results of operations and financial condition.