Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
Results of Operations
OVERVIEW
Revenues are generated from our homebuilding and financial services operations. The following table presents a summary of our consolidated results of operations (dollars in thousands, except per share amounts):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022 Variance
Revenues:
Homebuilding $ 1,378,537 $ 1,394,154 (1) %
Financial services 5,777 4,635 25
Total revenues $ 1,384,314 $ 1,398,789 (1) %
Pretax income:
Homebuilding $ 156,199 $ 169,621 (8) %
Financial services 6,001 8,436 (29)
Total pretax income 162,200 178,057 (9)
Income tax expense
(36,700) (43,800) 16
Net income $ 125,500 $ 134,257 (7) %
Diluted earnings per share
$ 1.45 $ 1.47 (1) %
We generated solid financial results in the 2023 first quarter despite significantly more challenging conditions compared to the year-earlier quarter, as the combination of relatively high mortgage interest rates, elevated inflation and various other macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns that weighed on consumer budgets and confidence throughout the 2022 second half continued to negatively impact housing market demand.
During the quarter, we remained focused on balancing pace, price and construction starts at each community to optimize our return on each inventory asset within its market context. Positioning for the Spring selling season, we also implemented targeted sales strategies, including selective price adjustments and other homebuyer concessions (particularly, mortgage-related concessions such as interest rate buydown or lock programs), which, together with a stabilizing mortgage interest rate environment, helped drive order activity and decrease cancellations. While our net orders and net order value decreased 49% and 53%, respectively, compared to the year-earlier period, we generated sequential improvement in our net orders in both January and February, and net orders remained strong in March. Although we are encouraged by this progress, we expect consumer caution from interest rate and economic uncertainties as well as affordability pressures to continue to negatively impact homebuyer demand for the remainder of the year. We also anticipate the price adjustments and other homebuyer concessions we have implemented, along with other factors discussed below under “Outlook,” will contribute to a year-over-year decrease in the average selling price of homes delivered in each of the remaining quarters of 2023.
Homebuilding revenues for the three months ended February 28, 2023 and 2022 were generated entirely from housing revenues. Housing revenues for the 2023 first quarter were essentially the same as the year-earlier quarter, as a 3% decrease in the number of homes delivered to 2,788 was mostly offset by a 2% increase in their average selling price to $494,500. Approximately 50% of our homes delivered in the 2023 first quarter were to first-time homebuyers. Homebuilding operating income for the three months ended February 28, 2023 decreased 8% year over year to $156.5 million and, as a percentage of revenues, was down 80 basis points to 11.4%. Our homebuilding operating income margin for the 2023 first quarter reflected a decrease in our housing gross profit margin to 21.5%, compared to 22.4% for the year-ago quarter, partly offset by a slight improvement in selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues. Although net income decreased 7%, diluted earnings per share was nearly even with the year-earlier period due to the favorable impact of our common stock repurchases over the past several quarters, which are discussed in Note 18 – Stockholders’ Equity in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report.
In the 2023 first quarter, we, like many other homebuilders, continued to experience production challenges due to supply chain disruptions, as well as ongoing construction services availability constraints and delays with respect to state and municipal construction permitting, inspection and utility processes, which have been impacted by key equipment shortages. These issues, which have persisted to varying degrees since the 2020 second quarter, have resulted in cycle times that remain extended
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relative to our historical average, and delays in deliveries and community openings. We have adapted to the extent possible to these changing conditions, re-sequencing construction when necessary, and, in some cases, ordering items in advance of starting homes to mitigate delays. In addition, we are committed to reducing construction cycle times and continue to work with our suppliers and trade partners to improve their performance and pricing, which may help offset some of the impact of the above-described price adjustments and other homebuyer concessions we have implemented. While these challenging circumstances are diminishing as to certain construction stages, we expect them to continue to negatively affect our land development and home construction activities through the remainder of 2023, and it is possible they will worsen in that and in later periods.
Reflecting the slowdown in housing market demand that began in the 2022 second half and continued throughout the 2023 first quarter, our ending backlog value at February 28, 2023 decreased 42% year over year to approximately $3.31 billion. Yet, we believe we are well-positioned to achieve solid results for the 2023 second quarter and full year, as described below under “Outlook.”
HOMEBUILDING
Financial Results . The following table presents a summary of certain financial and operational data for our homebuilding operations (dollars in thousands, except average selling price):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022
Revenues:
Housing $ 1,378,537 $ 1,394,154
Land — —
Total 1,378,537 1,394,154
Costs and expenses:
Construction and land costs
Housing (1,082,821) (1,082,112)
Land — —
Total (1,082,821) (1,082,112)
Selling, general and administrative expenses (139,227) (142,480)
Total (1,222,048) (1,224,592)
Operating income 156,489 169,562
Interest income 467 36
Equity in income (loss) of unconsolidated joint ventures (757) 23
Homebuilding pretax income $ 156,199 $ 169,621
\
Homes delivered 2,788 2,868
Average selling price $ 494,500 $ 486,100
Housing gross profit margin as a percentage of housing revenues 21.5 % 22.4 %
Adjusted housing gross profit margin as a percentage of housing revenues 21.8 % 22.4 %
Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues 10.1 % 10.2 %
Operating income as a percentage of revenues 11.4 % 12.2 %
Revenues . Homebuilding revenues for the three months ended February 28, 2023 and 2022 were comprised solely of housing revenues. In the 2023 first quarter, housing revenues were nearly even with the year-earlier quarter, as a 3% decrease in the number of homes delivered was mostly offset by a 2% increase in their overall average selling price. The year-over-year decrease in the number of homes delivered primarily reflected a 14% decline in our West Coast homebuilding reporting segment, partly offset by increases of 4% and 9% in our Southwest and Southeast homebuilding reporting segments, respectively. The decline in our West Coast homebuilding reporting segment mainly resulted from a 47% year-over-year
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decrease in this segment’s backlog of homes at the beginning of the quarter. The higher overall average selling price primarily reflected product and geographic mix factors, partly offset by increased homebuyer concessions we selectively extended to buyers within backlog prior to delivery in conjunction with our targeted sales strategies described above under “Overview.”
Operating Income . Our homebuilding operating income for the three months ended February 28, 2023 decreased 8% from the year-earlier period, reflecting lower housing gross profits, partly offset by lower selling, general and administrative expenses. Operating income for the 2023 first quarter included inventory-related charges of $5.3 million, compared to $.2 million in the year-earlier quarter. As a percentage of revenues, our operating income for the three months ended February 28, 2023 was 11.4%, compared to 12.2% for the corresponding 2022 period. Excluding inventory-related charges, our operating income as a percentage of revenues decreased 50 basis points to 11.7% for the 2023 first quarter from 12.2% for the year-earlier quarter.
• Housing Gross Profits – Housing gross profits of $295.7 million for the three months ended February 28, 2023 declined 5% from $312.0 million for the year-earlier period, largely due to a decrease in our housing gross profit margin. Our housing gross profit margin for the 2023 first quarter decreased 90 basis points year over year to 21.5%, mainly as a result of: higher relative construction costs, partly due to shifts in product and geographic mix; increased homebuyer concessions in light of affordability pressures; and greater inventory-related charges. As a percentage of housing revenues, the amortization of previously capitalized interest associated with housing operations, which is included in construction and land costs, was 1.9% and 2.1% for the three months ended February 28, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Excluding the inventory-related charges associated with housing operations of $5.3 million in the current quarter and $.2 million in the year-earlier quarter, our adjusted housing gross profit margin for the 2023 first quarter decreased 60 basis points year over year. The calculation of adjusted housing gross profit margin, which we believe provides a clearer measure of the performance of our business, is described below under “Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”
• Selling, General and Administrative Expenses – The following table presents the components of our selling, general and administrative expenses (dollars in thousands):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 % of Housing Revenues 2022 % of Housing Revenues
Marketing expenses $ 33,138 2.4 % $ 28,848 2.1 %
Commission expenses (a) 46,487 3.4 48,629 3.5
General and administrative expenses 59,602 4.3 65,003 4.6
Total $ 139,227 10.1 % $ 142,480 10.2 %
(a) Commission expenses include sales commissions on homes delivered paid to internal sales counselors and external real estate brokers.
Selling, general and administrative expenses for the three months ended February 28, 2023 decreased 2% from the year-earlier quarter. As a percentage of housing revenues, our selling, general and administrative expenses for the 2023 first quarter improved 10 basis points, reflecting lower general and administrative expenses and commission expenses, partly offset by higher marketing expenses to support our higher average community count.
Interest Income/Expense . Interest income, which is generated from short-term investments, totaled $.5 million for the three months ended February 28, 2023 and was nominal for the year-earlier period. Generally, increases and decreases in interest income are attributable to changes in the interest-bearing average balances of short-term investments and fluctuations in interest rates.
We incur interest principally from our borrowings to finance land acquisitions, land development, home construction and other operating and capital needs. All interest incurred during the three-month periods ended February 28, 2023 and 2022 was capitalized as the average amount of our inventory qualifying for interest capitalization was higher than our average debt level for each period. Accordingly, we had no interest expense for these periods. Further information regarding our interest incurred and capitalized is provided in Note 6 – Inventories in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report.
Equity in Income (Loss) of Unconsolidated Joint Ventures . Our equity in loss of unconsolidated joint ventures was $.8 million for the three months ended February 28, 2023, compared to nominal equity in income of unconsolidated joint ventures for the year-earlier period. Further information regarding our investments in homebuilding unconsolidated joint ventures is provided in Note 9 – Investments in Unconsolidated Joint Ventures in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report.
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Net Orders, Cancellation Rates, Backlog and Community Count . The following table presents information about our net orders, cancellation rate, ending backlog and community count (dollars in thousands):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022
Net orders 2,142 4,210
Net order value (a) $ 1,001,868 $ 2,153,734
Cancellation rate (b) 36 % 11 %
Ending backlog — homes 7,016 11,886
Ending backlog — value $ 3,314,890 $ 5,711,305
Ending community count 256 208
Average community count 251 213
(a) Net order value represents potential future housing revenues associated with net orders generated during the period, as well as homebuyer selections of lot and product premiums and design studio options and upgrades for homes in backlog during the same period.
(b) Cancellation rates represent the total number of contracts for new homes cancelled during a period divided by the total (gross) orders for new homes generated during the same period.
Net Orders . Reflecting the softening housing market demand that began in the 2022 second half from the factors described above under “Overview,” net orders for the 2023 first quarter decreased 49% from the year-earlier quarter, with the pace of monthly net orders per community slowing to 2.8, compared to 6.6. The decrease in net orders and the slower monthly pace reflected lower gross orders combined with higher cancellations. The value of our net orders declined 53% year over year due to the overall decrease in our net orders, as well as the lower average selling price for those homes. The year-over-year net order and net order value comparisons for the 2023 first quarter improved from the declines of 80% and 79%, respectively, in the 2022 fourth quarter, as mortgage interest rates stabilized and we implemented selective price adjustments and other homebuyer concessions (particularly, mortgage-related concessions such as interest rate buydown or lock programs) ahead of the Spring selling season to help generate orders and decrease cancellations. In the 2023 first quarter, both net orders and net order values were down on a year-over-year basis in each of our four homebuilding reporting segments. Reflecting price adjustments and other homebuyer concessions as well as a shift in product and geographic mix, the average selling price of our net orders for the 2023 first quarter was $467,700, down 9% from the year-earlier period.
Our cancellation rate as a percentage of gross orders for the three months ended February 28, 2023 increased compared to the year-earlier period and was higher than our typical historical levels, reflecting the soft housing market demand. The cancellation rate for the three months ended February 28, 2022 was exceptionally low due to the strong demand levels we experienced in that period. On a sequential basis, the cancellation rate improved from 68% in the 2022 fourth quarter.
Backlog . The number of homes in our backlog at February 28, 2023 decreased 41% from February 28, 2022, reflecting our substantially lower backlog at the beginning of the quarter and a year-over-year decrease in our net orders for the three months ended February 28, 2023. The potential future housing revenues in our backlog at February 28, 2023 declined 42% from February 28, 2022 as a result of both the lower number of homes in backlog and a 2% decrease in their average selling price. The year-over-year decrease in our overall backlog value at February 28, 2023 reflected decreases in all of our homebuilding reporting segments, ranging from 30% in the Southeast to 53% in the West Coast. A portion of the orders in backlog will not result in homes delivered due to cancellations.
Community Count . We use the term “community count” to refer to the number of communities open for sale with at least five homes left to sell at the end of a reporting period. We continued to expand our community count in the 2023 first quarter, with ending community count up 23% and the average community count up 18%, each as compared to the year-earlier period, primarily reflecting new community openings and fewer communities selling out during the three months ended February 28, 2023. While maintaining a healthy supply of land owned or controlled under land option contracts and other similar contracts to fuel future community openings, we continued to moderate our land investments in the 2023 first quarter in response to soft housing market conditions, as discussed below under “Liquidity and Capital Resources.”
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HOMEBUILDING REPORTING SEGMENTS
Operational Data. The following tables present information about our homes delivered, net orders, cancellation rates as a percentage of gross orders, net order value, average community count and ending backlog (number of homes and value) by homebuilding reporting segment (dollars in thousands):
Three Months Ended February 28,
Homes Delivered Net Orders Cancellation Rates
Segment 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022
West Coast 786 914 857 1,094 20 % 11 %
Southwest 536 516 470 748 26 7
Central 935 953 411 1,444 58 14
Southeast 531 485 404 924 39 9
Total 2,788 2,868 2,142 4,210 36 % 11 %
Net Order Value Average Community Count
Segment 2023 2022 Variance 2023 2022 Variance
West Coast $ 535,539 $ 845,517 (37) % 80 57 40 %
Southwest 177,392 327,569 (46) 45 34 32
Central 139,468 618,009 (77) 80 75 7
Southeast 149,469 362,639 (59) 46 47 (2)
Total $ 1,001,868 $ 2,153,734 (53) % 251 213 18 %
February 28,
Backlog – Homes Backlog – Value
Segment 2023 2022 Variance 2023 2022 Variance
West Coast 1,358 2,621 (48) % $ 918,535 $ 1,951,554 (53) %
Southwest 1,626 2,426 (33) 686,101 1,028,385 (33)
Central 2,465 4,402 (44) 1,069,380 1,811,261 (41)
Southeast 1,567 2,437 (36) 640,874 920,105 (30)
Total 7,016 11,886 (41) % $ 3,314,890 $ 5,711,305 (42) %
The composition of our homes delivered, net orders and backlog shifts with the product and geographic mix of our active communities and the corresponding average selling prices of the homes ordered and/or delivered at these communities in any particular period, changing as new communities open and existing communities wind down or sell out in the ordinary course. In addition, with our Built to Order model, the selling prices of individual homes within a community may vary due to differing lot sizes and locations, home square footage, product premiums and the design studio options and upgrades buyers select in the community. These intrinsic variations in our business limit the comparability of our homes delivered, net orders and backlog, as well as their corresponding values, between sequential and year-over-year periods, in addition to the effect of prevailing economic or housing market conditions in or across any particular periods. As described above under “Overview,” housing market conditions in the 2023 first quarter are significantly more challenging than in the year-ago quarter.
Financial Results . Below is a discussion of the financial results for each of our homebuilding reporting segments. Further information regarding these segments, including their pretax income (loss), is included in Note 2 – Segment Information in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report. The difference between each homebuilding reporting segment’s operating income (loss) and pretax income (loss) is generally due to the equity in income (loss) of unconsolidated joint ventures and/or interest income and expense.
In addition to the results of our homebuilding reporting segments presented below, our consolidated homebuilding operating income includes the results of Corporate and other, a non-operating segment. Corporate and other had operating losses of $30.2 million and $34.7 million in the three months ended February 28, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
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The financial results of our homebuilding reporting segments for the three months ended February 28, 2023 were negatively impacted to varying degrees by homebuyer concessions we selectively extended to buyers within backlog prior to delivery in conjunction with our targeted sales strategies described above under “Overview,” as well as shifts in the product and geographic mix of homes delivered. Segment financial results for three months ended February 28, 2023 were also affected by construction services availability constraints and building material cost pressures, as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions and other production-related challenges, also as described above under “Overview.”
West Coast . The following table presents financial information related to our West Coast segment (dollars in thousands, except average selling price):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022 Variance
Revenues $ 540,019 $ 658,874 (18) %
Construction and land costs (441,186) (507,465) 13
Selling, general and administrative expenses (38,613) (41,508) 7
Operating income $ 60,220 $ 109,901 (45) %
Homes delivered 786 914 (14) %
Average selling price $ 687,000 $ 720,900 (5) %
Operating income as a percentage of revenues 11.2 % 16.7 % (550) bps
This segment’s revenues for the three months ended February 28, 2023 declined from the year-earlier quarter due to a decrease in the number of homes delivered and their lower average selling price. Operating income for the three months ended February 28, 2023 was down year over year, reflecting lower housing gross profits, partly offset by reduced selling, general and administrative expenses. Operating income as a percentage of revenues decreased from the year-earlier quarter, primarily due to a 470 basis-point decline in the housing gross profit margin to 18.3% and an 80 basis-point increase in selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues to 7.1%. The year-over-year decrease in the housing gross profit margin primarily reflected higher relative construction costs, shifts in the product and geographic mix of homes delivered, and reduced operating leverage from lower housing revenues. In addition, the housing gross profit margin for the three months ended February 28, 2023 included $.9 million of inventory-related charges, while there were no such charges in the year-earlier quarter. The increase in selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues mainly reflected reduced operating leverage from lower housing revenues.
Southwest . The following table presents financial information related to our Southwest segment (dollars in thousands, except average selling price):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022 Variance
Revenues $ 239,587 $ 209,767 14 %
Construction and land costs
(177,003) (156,428) (13)
Selling, general and administrative expenses
(18,466) (17,324) (7)
Operating income $ 44,118 $ 36,015 22 %
Homes delivered 536 516 4 %
Average selling price $ 447,000 $ 406,500 10 %
Operating income as a percentage of revenues 18.4 % 17.2 % 120 bps
The year-over-year growth in this segment’s revenues for the three months ended February 28, 2023 reflected increases in both the number of homes delivered and their average selling price. Operating income increased from the year-earlier period due to higher housing gross profits, partially offset by higher selling, general and administrative expenses. As a percentage of revenues, this segment’s operating income improved from the year-earlier quarter, reflecting a 70 basis-point expansion in the housing gross profit margin to 26.1% and a 50 basis-point improvement in selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues to 7.7%. The housing gross profit margin expansion primarily reflected lower relative amortization of previously capitalized interest and improved operating leverage from higher housing revenues. The
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improvement in selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues mainly reflected lower external sales commissions and increased operating leverage from higher housing revenues.
Central . The following table presents financial information related to our Central segment (dollars in thousands, except average selling price):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022 Variance
Revenues $ 389,951 $ 355,322 10 %
Construction and land costs
(297,286) (284,860) (4)
Selling, general and administrative expenses
(33,839) (32,346) (5)
Operating income $ 58,826 $ 38,116 54 %
Homes delivered 935 953 (2) %
Average selling price $ 417,100 $ 372,800 12 %
Operating income as a percentage of revenues 15.1 % 10.7 % 440 bps
This segment’s revenues for the three months ended February 28, 2023 increased from the corresponding year-earlier period, primarily reflecting a higher average selling price of homes delivered. Operating income increased from the corresponding year-earlier period due to higher housing gross profits, partly offset by higher selling, general and administrative expenses. This segment’s operating income as a percentage of revenues improved from the year-earlier period primarily due to a 400 basis-point increase in the housing gross profit margin to 23.8% and a 40 basis-point improvement in selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues to 8.7%. The year-over-year increase in the housing gross profit margin primarily reflected lower relative construction and land costs due to a shift in the product and geographic mix of homes delivered and lower relative amortization of previously capitalized interest, partly offset by increased homebuyer concessions.
Southeast . The following table presents financial information related to our Southeast segment (dollars in thousands, except average selling price):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022 Variance
Revenues $ 208,980 $ 170,191 23 %
Construction and land costs
(165,056) (132,230) (25)
Selling, general and administrative expenses
(20,399) (17,695) (15)
Operating income $ 23,525 $ 20,266 16 %
Homes delivered 531 485 9 %
Average selling price $ 393,600 $ 350,900 12 %
Operating income as a percentage of revenues 11.3 % 11.9 % (60) bps
This segment’s revenues for the three months ended February 28, 2023 grew year over year as a result of an increase in the number of homes delivered and the higher average selling price of those homes. Operating income increased from the corresponding year-earlier period, reflecting higher housing gross profits, partly offset by higher selling, general and administrative expenses. As a percentage of revenues, operating income declined from the year-earlier period mainly due to a 130 basis-point decrease in the housing gross profit margin to 21.0% that primarily reflected an increase in inventory-related charges to $3.5 million, compared to no such charges in the year-earlier period, and an increase in homebuyer concessions, partly offset by a shift in product and geographic mix of homes delivered and improved operating leverage from higher housing revenues. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues improved 70 basis points from the year-earlier period to 9.7%, mainly reflecting increased operating leverage from higher housing revenues.
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FINANCIAL SERVICES REPORTING SEGMENT
The following table presents a summary of selected financial and operational data for our financial services reporting segment (dollars in thousands):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022
Revenues $ 5,777 $ 4,635
Expenses (1,358) (1,347)
Equity in income of unconsolidated joint ventures 1,582 5,148
Pretax income
$ 6,001 $ 8,436
Total originations (a):
Loans 1,816 1,783
Principal $ 726,665 $ 691,933
Percentage of homebuyers using KBHS 79 % 71 %
Average FICO score 733 732
Loans sold (a):
Loans sold to GR Alliance 1,828 1,527
Principal $ 741,468 $ 595,959
Loans sold to third parties 91 352
Principal $ 32,242 $ 112,192
(a) Loan originations and sales occurred within KBHS.
Revenues . Financial services revenues for the three months ended February 28, 2023 grew from the corresponding 2022 period due to increases in both title services revenues and insurance commissions.
Pretax income. Financial services pretax income for the three months ended February 28, 2023 decreased 29% from the year-earlier period, as a decrease in the equity in income of our unconsolidated joint venture was partly offset by improved results from our insurance and title services businesses. In the 2023 first quarter, the equity in income of our unconsolidated joint venture, KBHS, decreased to $1.6 million, compared to $5.1 million in the year-earlier quarter, as a result of a decline in KBHS’ income. The year-over-year decline in KBHS’ income was primarily due to losses of $1.5 million in the fair value of IRLCs in the current quarter, compared to gains of $7.6 million in the year-earlier quarter, mainly reflecting a lower volume of new IRLCs in the 2023 first quarter. Partly offsetting this impact were the higher principal amount of loan originations, which reflected the 2% increase in the average selling price of homes delivered, and an increase in the percentage of homebuyers using KBHS. Further information regarding our investments in unconsolidated joint ventures is provided in Note 9 – Investments in Unconsolidated Joint Ventures in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report.
INCOME TAXES
Income Tax Expense. Our income tax expense and effective tax rates were as follows (dollars in thousands):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022
Income tax expense $ 36,700 $ 43,800
Effective tax rate 22.6 % 24.6 %
Our effective tax rate for the three months ended February 28, 2023 decreased from the year-earlier period, mainly due to a $5.5 million increase in the federal tax credits we recognized primarily from building energy-efficient homes and a $.5 million increase in excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation, partly offset by a $1.4 million increase in nondeductible executive compensation expense.
Further information regarding our income taxes is provided in Note 13 – Income Taxes in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report.
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NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
This report contains information about our adjusted housing gross profit margin, which is not calculated in accordance with GAAP. We believe this non-GAAP financial measure is relevant and useful to investors in understanding our operations and the leverage employed in our operations, and may be helpful in comparing us with other companies in the homebuilding industry to the extent they provide similar information. However, because it is not calculated in accordance with GAAP, this non-GAAP financial measure may not be completely comparable to other companies in the homebuilding industry and, thus, should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to operating performance and/or financial measures prescribed by GAAP. Rather, this non-GAAP financial measure should be used to supplement the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in order to provide a greater understanding of the factors and trends affecting our operations.
Adjusted Housing Gross Profit Margin. The following table reconciles our housing gross profit margin calculated in accordance with GAAP to the non-GAAP financial measure of our adjusted housing gross profit margin (dollars in thousands):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022
Housing revenues $ 1,378,537 $ 1,394,154
Housing construction and land costs (1,082,821) (1,082,112)
Housing gross profits 295,716 312,042
Add: Inventory-related charges (a)
5,289 175
Adjusted housing gross profits $ 301,005 $ 312,217
Housing gross profit margin as a percentage of housing revenues 21.5 % 22.4 %
Adjusted housing gross profit margin as a percentage of housing revenues 21.8 % 22.4 %
(a) Represents inventory impairment and land option contract abandonment charges associated with housing operations.
Adjusted housing gross profit margin is a non-GAAP financial measure, which we calculate by dividing housing revenues less housing construction and land costs excluding housing inventory impairment and land option contract abandonment charges (as applicable) recorded during a given period, by housing revenues. The most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is housing gross profit margin. We believe adjusted housing gross profit margin is a relevant and useful financial measure to investors in evaluating our performance as it measures the gross profits we generated specifically on the homes delivered during a given period. This non-GAAP financial measure isolates the impact that the housing inventory impairment and land option contract abandonment charges have on housing gross profit margins, and allows investors to make comparisons with our competitors that adjust housing gross profit margins in a similar manner. We also believe investors will find adjusted housing gross profit margin relevant and useful because it represents a profitability measure that may be compared to a prior period without regard to variability of housing inventory impairment and land option contract abandonment charges. This financial measure assists us in making strategic decisions regarding community location and product mix, product pricing and construction pace.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Overview. We have funded our homebuilding and financial services activities over the last several years with:
• internally generated cash flows;
• public issuances of debt securities;
• borrowings under the Credit Facility;
• the Term Loan;
• land option contracts and other similar contracts and seller notes;
• public issuances of our common stock; and
• letters of credit and performance bonds.
We manage our use of cash in the operation of our business to support the execution of our primary strategic goals. Over the past several years, we have primarily used cash for:
• land acquisition and land development;
• home construction;
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• operating expenses;
• principal and interest payments on notes payable;
• repayments of borrowings under the Credit Facility;
• dividends paid to stockholders; and
• repurchases of our common stock.
We ended the 2023 first quarter with total liquidity of $1.24 billion, including cash and cash equivalents and $983.4 million of available capacity under the Credit Facility. Based on our financial position as of February 28, 2023, and our business forecast for the remainder of 2023 as discussed below under “Outlook,” we have no material concerns related to our liquidity. While the softening in homebuyer demand that began in the 2022 second half indicates potential liquidity risks, we believe that our existing cash and cash equivalents, our anticipated cash flows from operations and amounts available under our Credit Facility will be sufficient to fund our anticipated operating and land-related investment needs for at least the next 12 months. Though the financial industry and capital markets turmoil that began with regulatory authorities closing two U.S. banks in early March 2023 could also create a potential liquidity risk if it spreads, as discussed below under Part II, Item 1A – Risk Factors, as of the date of this report, we believe it will not impair our ability to access any cash and cash equivalents we have invested in interest-bearing bank deposit accounts, or the full borrowing, credit extension and payment guarantee capacities available under our Credit Facility and the LOC Facility.
Cash Requirements . There have been no significant changes in our cash requirements from those reported in the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended November 30, 2022.
Investments in Land and Land Development. Our investments in land and land development for the three months ended February 28, 2023 decreased 48% to $367.0 million, compared to $704.7 million for the year-earlier period, primarily due to a strategic reduction in land acquisitions. In the three months ended February 28, 2023, our land acquisitions decreased 86% to $50.0 million from $365.8 million, reflecting a pivot in our land investment strategy beginning in the 2022 third quarter in response to softening housing market conditions, to emphasize developing land positions we already own or control under land option contracts and other similar contracts. We have also evaluated our transaction pipeline and renegotiated pricing and terms for many deals while abandoning others that no longer met our investment return standards. In addition, we have modified our land development strategy, electing where appropriate to build in smaller phases, and in some cases, defer the start of the next phase of lots in a community to align with expected demand. Reflecting these shifts in our land strategy, approximately 14% of our total investments for the three months ended February 28, 2023 related to land acquisitions, compared to approximately 52% in the prior-year period. While we made strategic investments in land and land development in each of our homebuilding reporting segments during the three months ended February 28, 2023 and 2022, approximately 53% and 57%, respectively, of these investments for each period were made in our West Coast homebuilding reporting segment.
For the remainder of 2023, we intend to continue to invest in and develop land positions within attractive submarkets and selectively acquire or control additional land that meets our investment standards, though we anticipate at a lower level than in the past two years. Our investments in land and land development in the future will depend significantly on market conditions and available opportunities that meet our investment return standards.
The following table presents the number of lots we owned or controlled under land option contracts and other similar contracts and the carrying value of inventory by homebuilding reporting segment (dollars in thousands):
February 28, 2023 November 30, 2022 Variance
Segment Lots Carrying Value Lots Carrying Value Lots Carrying Value
West Coast 17,512 $ 2,337,899 19,302 $ 2,425,141 (1,790) $ (87,242)
Southwest 8,304 983,478 8,841 993,059 (537) (9,581)
Central 21,918 1,255,966 24,001 1,278,420 (2,083) (22,454)
Southeast 14,670 867,810 16,651 846,556 (1,981) 21,254
Total 62,404 $ 5,445,153 68,795 $ 5,543,176 (6,391) $ (98,023)
The number and carrying value of lots we owned or controlled under land option contracts and other similar contracts at February 28, 2023 decreased from November 30, 2022, reflecting homes delivered in the 2023 first quarter as well as the above-mentioned pivot in our land investment strategy, which included our abandonment of 3,799 previously controlled lots in the current quarter. The number of lots in inventory as of February 28, 2023 included 4,027 lots under contract where the associated deposits were refundable at our discretion, compared to 5,543 of such lots at November 30, 2022. Our lots
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controlled under land option contracts and other similar contracts as a percentage of total lots was 26% at February 28, 2023, compared to 30% at November 30, 2022. Generally, this percentage fluctuates with our decisions to control (or abandon) lots under land option contracts and other similar contracts or to purchase (or sell owned) lots based on available opportunities and our investment return standards.
Land Option Contracts and Other Similar Contracts. As discussed in Note 8 – Variable Interest Entities in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report, our land option contracts and other similar contracts generally do not contain provisions requiring our specific performance. Our decision to exercise a particular land option contract or other similar contract depends on the results of our due diligence reviews and ongoing market and project feasibility analysis that we conduct after entering into such a contract. In some cases, our decision to exercise a land option contract or other similar contract may be conditioned on the land seller obtaining necessary entitlements, such as zoning rights and environmental and development approvals, and/or physically developing the underlying land by a pre-determined date. We typically have the ability not to exercise our rights to the underlying land for any reason and forfeit our deposits without further penalty or obligation to the sellers. If we were to acquire all the land we had under land option contracts and other similar contracts at February 28, 2023, we estimate the remaining purchase price to be paid would be as follows: 2023 – $428.2 million; 2024 – $320.6 million; 2025 – $121.1 million; 2026 – $124.8 million; 2027 – $6.0 million; and thereafter – $3.3 million.
Liquidity. The table below summarizes our cash and cash equivalents, and total liquidity (in thousands):
February 28,
2023 November 30,
2022
Cash and cash equivalents $ 260,127 $ 328,517
Credit Facility commitment 1,090,000 1,090,000
Borrowings outstanding under the Credit Facility (100,000) (150,000)
Letters of credit outstanding under the Credit Facility (6,650) (6,650)
Credit Facility availability 983,350 933,350
Total liquidity $ 1,243,477 $ 1,261,867
The majority of our cash equivalents at February 28, 2023 and November 30, 2022 were invested in interest-bearing bank deposit accounts.
Capital Resources. Our notes payable consisted of the following (in thousands):
February 28,
2023 November 30,
2022 Variance
Credit Facility $ 100,000 $ 150,000 $ (50,000)
Term Loan 357,653 357,485 168
Senior notes 1,326,674 1,326,266 408
Mortgages and land contracts due to land sellers and other loans 4,523 4,760 (237)
Total
$ 1,788,850 $ 1,838,511 $ (49,661)
Our financial leverage, as measured by the ratio of debt to capital, was 32.6% at February 28, 2023, compared to 33.4% at November 30, 2022. The ratio of debt to capital is calculated by dividing notes payable by capital (notes payable plus stockholders’ equity).
LOC Facility . We maintain the LOC Facility to obtain letters of credit from time to time in the ordinary course of operating our business. Under the LOC Facility, which expires on February 13, 2025, we may issue up to $75.0 million of letters of credit. As of February 28, 2023 and November 30, 2022, we had letters of credit outstanding under the LOC Facility of $23.1 million and $36.4 million, respectively.
Performance Bonds . As discussed in Note 16 – Commitments and Contingencies in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report, we had $1.30 billion and $1.27 billion of performance bonds outstanding at February 28, 2023 and November 30, 2022, respectively.
Unsecured Revolving Credit Facility . We have a $1.09 billion Credit Facility that will mature on February 18, 2027. The Credit Facility contains an uncommitted accordion feature under which its aggregate principal amount of available loans can be
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increased to a maximum of $1.29 billion under certain conditions, including obtaining additional bank commitments. The amount of the Credit Facility available for cash borrowings and the issuance of letters of credit depends on the total cash borrowings and letters of credit outstanding under the Credit Facility and the maximum available amount under the terms of the Credit Facility. As of February 28, 2023, we had $100.0 million of cash borrowings and $6.6 million of letters of credit outstanding under the Credit Facility. The Credit Facility is further described in Note 14 – Notes Payable in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report.
Under the terms of the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, as discussed below, we are required, among other things, to maintain compliance with various covenants, including financial covenants regarding our consolidated tangible net worth, Leverage Ratio, and either an Interest Coverage Ratio or minimum liquidity level, each as defined therein. Our compliance with these financial covenants is measured by calculations and metrics that are specifically defined or described by the terms of the Credit Facility and the Term Loan and can differ in certain respects from comparable GAAP or other commonly used terms. The financial covenant requirements under the Credit Facility and the Term Loan are set forth below:
• Consolidated tangible net worth – We must maintain a consolidated tangible net worth at the end of any fiscal quarter greater than or equal to the sum of (a) $2.09 billion, plus (b) an amount equal to 50% of the aggregate of the cumulative consolidated net income for each fiscal quarter commencing after November 30, 2021 and ending as of the last day of such fiscal quarter (though there is no reduction if there is a consolidated net loss in any fiscal quarter), plus (c) an amount equal to 50% of the cumulative net proceeds we receive from the issuance of our capital stock after November 30, 2021.
• Leverage Ratio – We must also maintain a Leverage Ratio of less than or equal to .60 at the end of each fiscal quarter. The Leverage Ratio is calculated as the ratio of our consolidated total indebtedness to the sum of consolidated total indebtedness and consolidated tangible net worth, all as defined under the Credit Facility.
• Interest Coverage Ratio or liquidity – We are also required to maintain either (a) an Interest Coverage Ratio of greater than or equal to 1.50 at the end of each fiscal quarter; or (b) a minimum level of liquidity, but not both. The Interest Coverage Ratio is the ratio of our consolidated adjusted EBITDA to consolidated interest incurred, each as defined under the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, in each case for the previous 12 months. Our minimum liquidity is required to be greater than or equal to consolidated interest incurred, as defined under the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, for the four most recently ended fiscal quarters in the aggregate.
In addition, under the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, our equity investments in joint ventures and non-guarantor subsidiaries and other unconsolidated entities as of the end of each fiscal quarter cannot exceed the sum of (a) $104.8 million and (b) 20% of consolidated tangible net worth. Further, for so long as we do not hold an investment grade rating, as defined under the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, the Credit Facility and the Term Loan do not permit our borrowing base indebtedness, which, subject to certain exceptions, is the aggregate principal amount of our and certain of our subsidiaries’ outstanding indebtedness for borrowed money and non-collateralized financial letters of credit, to be greater than our borrowing base (a measure relating to our inventory and unrestricted cash assets).
The covenants and other requirements under the Credit Facility and the Term Loan represent the most restrictive covenants that we are subject to with respect to our notes payable. The following table summarizes the financial covenants and other requirements under the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, and our actual levels or ratios (as applicable) with respect to those covenants and other requirements, in each case as of February 28, 2023:
Financial Covenants and Other Requirements Covenant Requirement Actual
Consolidated tangible net worth > $2.56 billion $3.66 billion
Leverage Ratio < .600 .329
Interest Coverage Ratio (a) > 1.500 10.498
Minimum liquidity (a) > $119.2 million $160.1 million
Investments in joint ventures and non-guarantor subsidiaries < $835.8 million $290.2 million
Borrowing base in excess of borrowing base indebtedness (as defined) n/a $2.47 billion
(a) Under the terms of the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, we are required to maintain either a minimum Interest Coverage Ratio or a minimum level of liquidity.
The indenture governing our senior notes does not contain any financial covenants. Subject to specified exceptions, the indenture contains certain restrictive covenants that, among other things, limit our ability to incur secured indebtedness, or
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engage in sale-leaseback transactions involving property above a certain specified value. In addition, the indenture contains certain limitations related to mergers, consolidations, and sales of assets.
As of February 28, 2023, we were in compliance with the applicable terms of all of our covenants and other requirements under the Credit Facility, the Term Loan, the senior notes, the indenture, and the mortgages and land contracts due to land sellers and other loans. Our ability to access the Credit Facility for cash borrowings and letters of credit and our ability to secure future debt financing depend, in part, on our ability to remain in such compliance. Our ability to access the Credit Facility’s full borrowing capacity, as well as the LOC Facility’s full issuance capacity, also depends on the ability and willingness of the applicable lenders and financial institutions, including any substitute or additional lenders and financial institutions, to meet their commitments to fund loans, extend credit or provide payment guarantees to or for us under those instruments.
There are no agreements that restrict our payment of dividends other than the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, which would restrict our payment of certain dividends, such as cash dividends on our common stock, if a default under the Credit Facility or the Term Loan exists at the time of any such payment, or if any such payment would result in such a default (other than dividends paid within 60 days after declaration, if there was no default at the time of declaration).
Depending on available terms, we finance certain land acquisitions with purchase-money financing from land sellers or with other forms of financing from third parties. At February 28, 2023, we had outstanding mortgages and land contracts due to land sellers and other loans payable in connection with such financing of $4.5 million, secured primarily by the underlying property, which had an aggregate carrying value of $28.4 million.
Senior Unsecured Term Loan . We have a $360.0 million Term Loan with the lenders party thereto that will mature on August 25, 2026, or earlier if we secure borrowings under the Credit Facility without similarly securing the Term Loan (subject to certain exceptions). The Term Loan is further described in Note 14 – Notes Payable in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report.
Consolidated Cash Flows . The following table presents a summary of net cash provided by (used in) our operating, investing and financing activities (in thousands):
Three Months Ended February 28,
2023 2022
Net cash provided by (used in):
Operating activities $ 93,917 $ (251,035)
Investing activities (16,961) (17,876)
Financing activities (146,327) 219,512
Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents $ (69,371) $ (49,399)
Operating Activities . Generally, our net operating cash flows fluctuate mainly based on changes in our inventories and our profitability. Our net cash provided by operating activities for the three months ended February 28, 2023 primarily reflected net income of $125.5 million and a net decrease in inventories of $101.3 million, partly offset by a net decrease in accounts payable, accrued expenses and other liabilities of $131.7 million and a net increase in receivables of $25.3 million. In the three months ended February 28, 2022, our net cash used in operating activities mainly reflected a net increase in inventories of $405.9 million and a net increase in receivables of $8.6 million, partly offset by net income of $134.3 million and a net increase in accounts payable, accrued expenses and other liabilities of $2.1 million.
Investing Activities . In the three months ended February 28, 2023, our uses of cash included $13.2 million for contributions to unconsolidated joint ventures and $8.8 million for net purchases of property and equipment. These uses of cash were partially offset by a $5.1 million return of investments in unconsolidated joint ventures. In the three months ended February 28, 2022, the net cash used for investing activities reflected $10.6 million for net purchases of property and equipment and $8.6 million for contributions to unconsolidated joint ventures. These uses of cash were partially offset by a $1.3 million return of investments in unconsolidated joint ventures.
Financing Activities . In the three months ended February 28, 2023, our uses of cash included stock repurchases of $75.0 million, net repayments under the Credit Facility of $50.0 million, dividend payments on our common stock of $12.5 million, tax payments associated with stock-based compensation awards of $9.7 million and payments on mortgages and land contracts due to land sellers and other loans of $.2 million. The cash used was partly offset by $1.1 million of issuances of common stock under employee stock plans. In the three months ended February 28, 2022, cash was provided by net borrowings under the Credit Facility of $250.0 million. Partially offsetting the cash provided were $14.1 million of dividend payments on our
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common stock, $12.2 million of tax payments associated with stock-based compensation awards, $3.8 million of costs incurred for an amendment of the Credit Facility and $.4 million of payments on mortgages and land contracts due to land sellers and other loans.
Dividends. In the three-month periods ended February 28, 2023 and 2022, our board of directors declared, and we paid, a quarterly cash dividend on our common stock of $.15 per share. The declaration and payment of future cash dividends on our common stock, whether at current levels or at all, are at the discretion of our board of directors and depend upon, among other things, our expected future earnings, cash flows, capital requirements, access to external financing, debt structure and any adjustments thereto, operational and financial investment strategy and general financial condition, as well as general business conditions.
As of the date of this report, we believe we have adequate capital resources and sufficient access to external financing sources to satisfy our current and reasonably anticipated requirements for funds to conduct our operations and meet other needs in the ordinary course of our business. For the remainder of 2023, we expect to use or redeploy our cash resources or cash borrowings under the Credit Facility to support our business within the context of prevailing market conditions. During this time, we may also engage in capital markets, bank loan, project debt or other financial transactions, including the repurchase of debt or equity securities or potential new issuances of debt or equity securities to support our business needs. The amounts involved in these transactions, if any, may be material. In addition, as necessary or desirable, we may adjust or amend the terms of and/or expand the capacity of the Credit Facility or the LOC Facility, or enter into additional letter of credit facilities, or other similar facility arrangements, in each case with the same or other financial institutions, or allow any such facilities or loans to mature or expire. Our ability to engage in such transactions may be constrained by volatile or tight economic, capital, credit and/or financial market conditions or moderated investor and/or lender interest or capacity stemming from the unfavorable industry trends described above under “Overview” or other factors, and/or our liquidity, leverage and net worth, and we can provide no assurance as to successfully completing, the costs of, or the operational limitations arising from any one or series of such transactions. The potential liquidity risks from the financial industry and capital markets turmoil that began in early March 2023 with the closing of two U.S. banks is discussed below under Part II, Item 1A – Risk Factors.
Supplemental Guarantor Financial Information
As of February 28, 2023, we had $1.34 billion in aggregate principal amount of outstanding senior notes, $100.0 million of borrowings outstanding under the Credit Facility and $360.0 million in aggregate principal amount of borrowings outstanding under the Term Loan. Our obligations to pay principal and interest on the senior notes and borrowings, if any, under the Credit Facility and the Term Loan are guaranteed on a joint and several basis by our Guarantor Subsidiaries. Our other subsidiaries, including all of our subsidiaries associated with our financial services operations, do not guarantee any such indebtedness (collectively, “Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries”), although we may cause a Non-Guarantor Subsidiary to become a Guarantor Subsidiary if we believe it to be in our or the relevant subsidiary’s best interest. See Note 14 – Notes Payable in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report for additional information regarding the terms of our senior notes, the Credit Facility and the Term Loan.
The guarantees are full and unconditional, and the Guarantor Subsidiaries are 100% owned by us. The guarantees are senior unsecured obligations of each of the Guarantor Subsidiaries and rank equally in right of payment with all unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness and guarantees of such Guarantor Subsidiaries. The guarantees are effectively subordinated to any secured indebtedness of such Guarantor Subsidiaries to the extent of the value of the assets securing such indebtedness, and structurally subordinated to indebtedness and other liabilities of Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries.
Pursuant to the terms of the indenture governing the senior notes and the terms of the Credit Facility and the Term Loan, if any of the Guarantor Subsidiaries ceases to be a “significant subsidiary” as defined by Rule 1-02 of Regulation S-X using a 5% rather than a 10% threshold (provided that the assets of our Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries do not in the aggregate exceed 10% of an adjusted measure of our consolidated total assets), it will be automatically and unconditionally released and discharged from its guaranty of the senior notes, the Credit Facility and the Term Loan so long as all guarantees by such Guarantor Subsidiary of any other of our or our subsidiaries’ indebtedness are terminated at or prior to the time of such release.
The following tables present summarized financial information for KB Home and the Guarantor Subsidiaries on a combined basis, excluding unconsolidated joint ventures and after the elimination of (a) intercompany transactions and balances between KB Home and the Guarantor Subsidiaries and (b) equity in earnings from and investments in the Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries. See Note 9 – Investments in Unconsolidated Joint Ventures in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this report for additional information regarding our unconsolidated joint ventures.
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February 28,
2023 November 30,
2022
Summarized Balance Sheet Data (in thousands)
Assets
Cash $ 218,810 $ 265,916
Inventories 5,009,654 5,118,252
Amounts due from Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries 414,707 403,249
Total assets 6,283,930 6,404,755
Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
Notes payable $ 1,786,340 $ 1,836,001
Amounts due to Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries 286,422 283,280
Total liabilities 2,827,446 2,977,348
Stockholders’ equity 3,456,484 3,427,407
Three Months Ended
February 28, 2023
Summarized Statement of Operations Data (in thousands)
Revenues $ 1,305,717
Construction and land costs (1,017,038)
Selling, general and administrative expenses (135,957)
Interest income from Non-Guarantor Subsidiaries 6,613
Pretax income 159,657
Net income 124,057
Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates
The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires the use of judgment in the application of accounting policies and estimates of uncertain matters. There have been no significant changes to our critical accounting policies and estimates during the three months ended February 28, 2023 from those disclosed in the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended November 30, 2022.
Recent Accounting Pronouncements
There are no recent accounting pronouncements that are expected to have a material impact on our consolidated financial statements.
Outlook
We believe several long-term housing market fundamental factors remain positive, including favorable demographics, a decade-plus underproduction of new homes in relation to population growth and low resale home inventory. However, sharply higher mortgage interest rates beginning in early 2022, several years of rising housing prices, elevated inflation and various other macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns combined to significantly weaken housing market demand in the 2022 second half, and the soft market conditions continued in the 2023 first quarter. We expect consumer caution from interest rate and economic uncertainties as well as affordability pressures to continue to negatively impact homebuyer demand for the remainder of 2023, with lower net orders and higher cancellation rates anticipated for the 2023 second quarter, each as compared to the corresponding prior-year period.
Given these conditions, and depending on the market dynamics and the size and construction stage of the backlog within each community, we plan to continue to implement or maintain selective price adjustments and other homebuyer concessions to help generate new orders as we did in the 2023 first quarter. We anticipate the pricing adjustments and other homebuyer concessions we have selectively implemented since the 2022 third quarter and may continue to implement, as well as a community mix shift within our West Coast homebuilding reporting segment with a lower proportion of deliveries expected from higher-priced communities, will contribute to a year-over-year decrease in the overall average selling price of homes
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delivered in each of the remaining quarters of 2023. At the same time, with the deceleration in housing starts compared to a year ago, we are continuing to pursue reductions in our direct construction costs and cycle times to help offset any such pricing adjustments and other homebuyer concessions. We are committed to reducing our cycle times to achieve deliveries within a more traditional timeframe of between six and seven months from home sale to delivery.
We believe we are in a strong position to operate effectively through changing market conditions, with a solid balance sheet and liquidity, and anticipated healthy operating cash flow for the 2023 fiscal year. We plan to continue to moderate and be highly selective in our land investments until market conditions improve, as well as maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation to maximize long-term stockholder value. In this regard, on March 21, 2023, our board of directors approved a $500.0 million share repurchase authorization, providing us flexibility to continue to repurchase our common stock on an opportunistic basis.
We plan to continue to manage our product offerings, pricing, net order pace and inventory levels to optimize each asset based on local housing market conditions, leveraging our differentiating, highly customer-centric Built to Order business model and operational capabilities to help effectively meet evolving consumer preferences and budgets. With our backlog value of $3.31 billion at February 28, 2023, we believe we can achieve our projected results for 2023, subject to the factors and risks described in this report. Based on the foregoing, our present outlook for the 2023 second quarter and full year is as follows:
2023 Second Quarter
• We expect to generate housing revenues in the range of $1.35 billion to $1.50 billion, a decrease from $1.71 billion in the corresponding 2022 period, and anticipate our average selling price to be approximately $480,000, compared to $494,300 in the year-earlier period, a 3% decrease year over year.
• We expect our homebuilding operating income margin will be in the range of 9.5% to 10.5%, assuming no inventory-related charges, down from 15.5% for the year-earlier quarter.
• We expect our housing gross profit margin will be in the range of 20.0% to 21.0%, assuming no inventory-related charges, compared to 25.3% for the corresponding 2022 quarter.
• We expect our selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues to be in the range of 10.3% to 10.8%, compared to 9.8% in the 2022 second quarter.
• We expect our effective tax rate will be approximately 24%. The effective tax rate for the year-earlier quarter was approximately 26%.
• We expect our average community count will be up in the range of 15% to 20%, compared to the prior-year quarter.
• We expect our net orders will range between 3,000 and 3,700, representing a year-over-year decline of 14% at the mid-point.
2023 Full Year
• We expect our housing revenues to be in the range of $5.20 billion to $5.90 billion, a decrease of 19% at the mid-point of the range, from $6.88 billion in 2022, and anticipate our average selling price will be in the range of $480,000 to $490,000, a decrease from $500,800 for 2022.
• We expect our homebuilding operating income margin to be in the range of 10.0% to 11.0%, assuming no inventory-related charges, compared to 15.6% for 2022.
• We expect our housing gross profit margin to be in the range of 20.5% to 21.5%, assuming no inventory-related charges, compared to 24.8% for 2022.
• We expect our selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues to be in the range of 10.0% to 11.0%, compared to 9.2% in the prior year.
• We expect the effective tax rate will be approximately 24%, flat with 2022.
• We expect our average community count will be up year over year in the low double-digit percentage range.
• We expect a return on equity in the low double-digit percentage range.
Our future performance and the strategies we implement (and adjust or refine as necessary or appropriate) will depend significantly on prevailing economic, employment, homebuilding industry and capital, credit and financial market conditions
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and on a fairly stable and constructive political and regulatory environment (particularly in regard to housing and mortgage loan financing policies). The Federal Reserve’s aggressive raising of the federal funds interest rate and other measures during 2022 and into 2023 to moderate persistent U.S. inflation, and the further actions it may take, are expected to be an ongoing headwind for the housing market for the remainder of 2023, as they have elevated mortgage loan interest rates and created macroeconomic uncertainty and financial market turbulence that, among other things, has tempered consumer demand for homes and disrupted credit and lending markets. In addition, we believe the supply chain disruptions, other production challenges and construction cost pressures described in this Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations will generally persist for the remainder of 2023. The potential extent and effect of these factors on our business is highly uncertain, unpredictable and outside our control, and our past performance, including in the 2023 first quarter, should not be considered indicative of our future results on any metric or set of metrics, including, but not limited to, our net orders, backlog, revenues and returns.
Forward-Looking Statements
Investors are cautioned that certain statements contained in this report, as well as some statements by us in periodic press releases and other public disclosures and some oral statements by us to securities analysts, stockholders and others during presentations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the “Act”). Statements that are predictive in nature, that depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “estimate,” “hope,” and similar expressions constitute forward-looking statements. In addition, any statements that we may make or provide concerning future financial or operating performance (including without limitation future revenues, community count, homes delivered, net orders, selling prices, sales pace per new community, expenses, expense ratios, housing gross profits, housing gross profit margins, earnings or earnings per share, or growth or growth rates), future market conditions, future interest rates, and other economic conditions, ongoing business strategies or prospects, future dividends and changes in dividend levels, the value of our backlog (including amounts that we expect to realize upon delivery of homes included in our backlog and the timing of those deliveries), the value of our net orders, potential future asset acquisitions and the impact of completed acquisitions, future share issuances or repurchases, future debt issuances, repurchases or redemptions and other possible future actions are also forward-looking statements as defined by the Act. Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and projections about future events and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions about our operations, economic and market factors, and the homebuilding industry, among other things. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and we have no specific policy or intention to update these statements. If we update or revise any such statement(s), no assumption should be made that we will further update or revise that statement(s) or update or revise any other such statement(s). In addition, forward-looking and other statements in this report and in other public or oral disclosures that express or contain opinions, views or assumptions about market or economic conditions; the success, performance, effectiveness and/or relative positioning of our strategies, initiatives or operational activities; and other matters, may be based in whole or in part on general observations of our management, limited or anecdotal evidence and/or business or industry experience without in-depth or any particular empirical investigation, inquiry or analysis.
Actual events and results may differ materially from those expressed or forecasted in forward-looking statements due to a number of factors. The most important risk factors that could cause our actual performance and future events and actions to differ materially from such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following:
• general economic, employment and business conditions;
• population growth, household formations and demographic trends;
• conditions in the capital, credit and financial markets;
• our ability to access external financing sources and raise capital through the issuance of common stock, debt or other securities, and/or project financing, on favorable terms;
• the execution of any securities repurchases pursuant to our board of directors’ authorization;
• material and trade costs and availability, including building materials and appliances, and delays related to state and municipal construction, permitting, inspection and utility processes, which have been disrupted by key equipment shortages;
• consumer and producer price inflation;
• changes in interest rates, including those set by the Federal Reserve , which the Federal Reserve has increased sharply in the past few quarters and signaled an intention to aggressively further to moderate inflation, available in the capital markets or from financial institutions and other lenders, and applicable to mortgage loans;
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• our debt level, including our ratio of debt to capital, and our ability to adjust our debt level and maturity schedule;
• our compliance with the terms of the Credit Facility and the Term Loan;
• the ability and willingness of the applicable lenders, including any substitute or additional lenders, to meet their commitments to fund loans, extend credit or provide payment guarantees to or for us under the Credit Facility or LOC Facility;
• volatility in the market price of our common stock;
• home selling prices, including our homes’ selling prices, increasing at a faster rate than consumer incomes;
• weak or declining consumer confidence, either generally or specifically with respect to purchasing homes;
• competition from other sellers of new and resale homes;
• weather events, significant natural disasters and other climate and environmental factors;
• any failure of lawmakers to agree on a budget or appropriation legislation to fund the federal government’s operations or raise the amount the federal government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, and financial markets’ and businesses’ reactions to any such failure;
• government actions, policies, programs and regulations directed at or affecting the housing market (including the tax benefits associated with purchasing and owning a home, and the standards, fees and size limits applicable to the purchase or insuring of mortgage loans by government-sponsored enterprises and government agencies), the homebuilding industry, or construction activities;
• changes in existing tax laws or enacted corporate income tax rates, including those resulting from regulatory guidance and interpretations issued with respect to thereto;
• changes in U.S. trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and duties on homebuilding materials and products, and related trade disputes with and retaliatory measures taken by other countries;
• disruptions in world and regional trade flows, economic activity and supply chains due to the military conflict in Ukraine, including those stemming from wide-ranging sanctions the U.S. and other countries have imposed or may further impose on Russian business sectors, financial organizations, individuals and raw materials, the impact of which may, among other things, increase our operational costs, exacerbate building materials and appliance shortages and/or reduce our revenues and earnings;
• the adoption of new or amended financial accounting standards and the guidance and/or interpretations with respect thereto;
• the availability and cost of land in desirable areas and our ability to timely develop acquired land parcels and open new home communities;
• impairment, land option contract abandonment or other inventory-related charges, including any stemming from decreases in the value of our land assets;
• our warranty claims experience with respect to homes previously delivered and actual warranty costs incurred;
• costs and/or charges arising from regulatory compliance requirements or from legal, arbitral or regulatory proceedings, investigations, claims or settlements, including unfavorable outcomes in any such matters resulting in actual or potential monetary damage awards, penalties, fines or other direct or indirect payments, or injunctions, consent decrees or other voluntary or involuntary restrictions or adjustments to our business operations or practices that are beyond our current expectations and/or accruals;
• our ability to use/realize the net deferred tax assets we have generated;
• our ability to successfully implement our current and planned strategies and initiatives related to our product, geographic and market positioning, gaining share and scale in our served markets and in entering into new markets;
• our operational and investment concentration in markets in California;
• consumer interest in our new home communities and products, particularly from first-time homebuyers and higher-income consumers;
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• our ability to generate orders and convert our backlog of orders to home deliveries and revenues, particularly in key markets in California;
• our ability to successfully implement our business strategies and achieve any associated financial and operational targets and objectives, including those discussed in this report or in any of our other public filings, presentations or disclosures;
• income tax expense volatility associated with stock-based compensation;
• the ability of our homebuyers to obtain residential mortgage loans and mortgage banking services, which may depend on the ability and willingness of lenders and financial institutions to offer such loans and services to our homebuyers;
• the performance of mortgage lenders to our homebuyers;
• the performance of KBHS;
• the ability and willingness of the applicable lenders and financial institutions to extend credit facilities to KBHS to fund its originated mortgage loans;
• information technology failures and data security breaches;
• an epidemic or pandemic, and the control response measures that international, federal, state and local governments, agencies, law enforcement and/or health authorities implement to address it, which may precipitate or exacerbate one or more of the above-mentioned and/or other risks, and significantly disrupt or prevent us from operating our business in the ordinary course for an extended period; and
• other events outside of our control.
Please see our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended November 30, 2022 and other filings with the SEC for a further discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties applicable to our business.
Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
There have been no material changes in our market risk since November 30, 2022. For additional information regarding our market risk, refer to the “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended November 30, 2022.
Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.