GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. 10-Q

ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK Asset and Liability Management and Market Risk A principal operating objective of the Company is to produce stable earnings by achieving a favorable interest rate spread that can be sustained during fluctuations in prevailing interest rates. The Company has sought to reduce its exposure to adverse changes in interest rates by attempting to achieve a closer match between the periods in which its interest-bearing liabilities and interest-earning assets can be expected to reprice through the origination of adjustable-rate mortgages and loans with shorter terms to maturity and the purchase of other shorter term interest-earning assets. 66 ​ Our Risk When Interest Rates Change The rates of interest we earn on assets and pay on liabilities generally are established contractually for a period of time. Market interest rates change over time. Accordingly, our results of operations, like those of other financial institutions, are impacted by changes in interest rates and the interest rate sensitivity of our assets and liabilities. The risk associated with changes in interest rates and our ability to adapt to these changes is known as interest rate risk and is our most significant market risk. How We Measure the Risk to Us Associated with Interest Rate Changes In an attempt to manage our exposure to changes in interest rates and comply with applicable regulations, we monitor Great Southern’s interest rate risk. In monitoring interest rate risk, we regularly analyze and manage assets and liabilities based on their payment streams and interest rates, the timing of their maturities and their sensitivity to actual or potential changes in market interest rates. The ability to maximize net interest income is largely dependent upon the achievement of a positive interest rate spread that can be sustained despite fluctuations in prevailing interest rates. Interest rate sensitivity is a measure of the difference between amounts of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities which either reprice or mature within a given period of time. The difference, or the interest rate repricing “gap,” provides an indication of the extent to which an institution’s interest rate spread will be affected by changes in interest rates. A gap is considered positive when the amount of interest-rate sensitive assets exceeds the amount of interest-rate sensitive liabilities repricing during the same period, and is considered negative when the amount of interest-rate sensitive liabilities exceeds the amount of interest-rate sensitive assets during the same period. Generally, during a period of rising interest rates, a negative gap within shorter repricing periods would adversely affect net interest income, while a positive gap within shorter repricing periods would result in an increase in net interest income. During a period of falling interest rates, the opposite would be true. As of September 30, 2022, Great Southern’s interest rate risk models indicate that, generally, rising interest rates are expected to have a positive impact on the Company’s net interest income, while declining interest rates are expected to have a negative impact on net interest income. We model various interest rate scenarios for rising and falling rates, including both parallel and non-parallel shifts in rates. The results of our modeling indicate that net interest income is not likely to be significantly affected either positively or negatively in the first twelve months following relatively minor changes in interest rates because our portfolios are relatively well matched in a twelve-month horizon. In a situation where market interest rates increase significantly in a short period of time, our net interest margin increase may be more pronounced in the very near term (first one to three months), due to fairly rapid increases in LIBOR/SOFR interest rates (or their replacement rates) and “prime” interest rates. In a situation where market interest rates decrease significantly in a short period of time, as they did in March 2020, our net interest margin decrease may be more pronounced in the very near term (first one to three months), due to fairly rapid decreases in LIBOR/SOFR interest rates (or their replacement rates) and “prime” interest rates. In the subsequent months we expect that the net interest margin would stabilize and begin to improve, as renewal interest rates on maturing time deposits are expected to decrease compared to the then-current rates paid on those products. During 2020, we did experience some compression of our net interest margin percentage due to the Federal Fund rate being cut by a total of 2.25% from July 2019 through March 2020. Margin compression primarily resulted from changes in the asset mix, mainly the addition of lower-yielding assets and the issuance of subordinated notes during 2020 and the net interest margin remained lower than our historical average in 2021. LIBOR interest rates decreased in 2020 and remained very low in 2021 and into the first three months of 2022, putting pressure on loan yields, and strong pricing competition for loans and deposits remains in most of our markets. Since March 2022, market interest rates have increased fairly rapidly and are expected to continue to increase through the remainder of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. Market interest rate increases are expected to result in increases to loan yields, net interest income and net interest margin. Subsequent to September 30, 2022, cumulative time deposit maturities are as follows: within three months — $473 million; within six months — $673 million; and within twelve months — $1.2 billion. At September 30, 2022, the weighted average interest rates on these various cumulative maturities were 1.11%, 1.18% and 1.53%, respectively. 67 ​ The current level and shape of the interest rate yield curve poses challenges for interest rate risk management. Prior to its increase of 0.25% on December 16, 2015, the FRB had last changed interest rates on December 16, 2008. This was the first rate increase since September 29, 2006. The FRB also implemented rate increases of 0.25% on eight additional occasions beginning December 14, 2016 and through December 31, 2018, with the Federal Funds rate reaching as high as 2.50%. After December 2018, the FRB paused its rate increases and, in July, September and October 2019, implemented rate decreases of 0.25% on each of those occasions. At December 31, 2019, the Federal Funds rate stood at 1.75%. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the FRB decreased interest rates on two occasions in March 2020, a 0.50% decrease on March 3rd and a 1.00% decrease on March 16th. In 2022, the FRB implemented rate increases of 0.25%, 0.50%, 0.75%, 0.75%, 0.75% and 0.75% in March, May, June, July, September and November 2022, respectively. Financial markets are currently anticipating continued increases to market interest rates in 2022 and into the beginning of 2023. If interest rate increases do occur, we anticipate that our net interest income and net interest margin will be positively impacted. At September 30, 2022, the Federal Funds rate stood at 3.25% and on November 2, 2022 the Federal Funds rate was increased to 4.00%. A substantial portion of Great Southern’s loan portfolio ($1.08 billion at September 30, 2022) is tied to the one-month or three-month LIBOR index and will be subject to adjustment at least once within 90 days after September 30, 2022. Of these loans, $1.07 billion had interest rate floors. Great Southern’s loan portfolio also includes loans ($357 million at September 30, 2022) tied to various SOFR indexes that will be subject to adjustment at least once within 90 days after September 30, 2022. Of these loans, $357 million had interest rate floors. Great Southern also has a portfolio of loans ($724 million at September 30, 2022) tied to a “prime rate” of interest that will adjust immediately or within 90 days of a change to the “prime rate” of interest. Of these loans, $665 million had interest rate floors at various rates. At September 30, 2022, nearly all of these LIBOR, SOFR and “prime rate” loans had fully-indexed rates that were at or above their floor rate and so are expected to move fully with future market interest rate increases. Interest rate risk exposure estimates (the sensitivity gap) are not exact measures of an institution’s actual interest rate risk. They are only indicators of interest rate risk exposure produced in a simplified modeling environment designed to allow management to gauge the Bank’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates. They do not necessarily indicate the impact of general interest rate movements on the Bank’s net interest income because the repricing of certain categories of assets and liabilities is subject to competitive and other factors beyond the Bank’s control. As a result, certain assets and liabilities indicated as maturing or otherwise repricing within a stated period may in fact mature or reprice at different times and in different amounts and cause a change, which potentially could be material, in the Bank’s interest rate risk. In order to minimize the potential for adverse effects of material and prolonged increases and decreases in interest rates on Great Southern’s results of operations, Great Southern has adopted asset and liability management policies to better match the maturities and repricing terms of Great Southern’s interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. Management recommends, and the Board of Directors sets, the asset and liability policies of Great Southern, which are implemented by the Asset and Liability Committee. The Asset and Liability Committee is chaired by the Chief Financial Officer and is comprised of members of Great Southern’s senior management. The purpose of the Asset and Liability Committee is to communicate, coordinate and control asset/liability management consistent with Great Southern’s business plan and board-approved policies. The Asset and Liability Committee establishes and monitors the volume and mix of assets and funding sources, taking into account relative costs and spreads, interest rate sensitivity and liquidity needs. The objectives are to manage assets and funding sources to produce results that are consistent with liquidity, capital adequacy, growth, risk, and profitability goals. The Asset and Liability Committee meets on a monthly basis to review, among other things, economic conditions and interest rate outlook, current and projected liquidity needs and capital positions and anticipated changes in the volume and mix of assets and liabilities. At each meeting, the Asset and Liability Committee recommends appropriate strategy changes based on this review. The Chief Financial Officer or his designee is responsible for reviewing and reporting on the effects of the policy implementations and strategies to the Board of Directors at their monthly meetings. In order to manage its assets and liabilities and achieve the desired liquidity, credit quality, interest rate risk, profitability and capital targets, Great Southern has focused its strategies on originating adjustable rate loans or loans with fixed rates that mature in less than five years, and managing its deposits and borrowings to establish stable relationships with both retail customers and wholesale funding sources. At times, depending on the level of general interest rates, the relationship between long- and short-term interest rates, market conditions and competitive factors, we may determine to increase our interest rate risk position somewhat in order to maintain or increase our net interest margin. The Asset and Liability Committee regularly reviews interest rate risk by forecasting the impact of alternative interest rate environments on net interest income and market value of portfolio equity, which is defined as the net present value of an institution’s existing assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet instruments, and evaluating such impacts against the maximum potential changes in net interest income and market value of portfolio equity that are authorized by the Board of Directors of Great Southern. 68 ​ In the normal course of business, the Company may use derivative financial instruments (primarily interest rate swaps) from time to time to assist in its interest rate risk management. In 2011, the Company began executing interest rate swaps with commercial banking customers to facilitate their respective risk management strategies. Those interest rate swaps are simultaneously hedged by offsetting interest rate swaps that the Company executes with a third party, such that the Company minimizes its net risk exposure resulting from such transactions. Because the interest rate swaps associated with this program do not meet the strict hedge accounting requirements, changes in the fair value of both the customer swaps and the offsetting swaps are recognized directly in earnings. These interest rate derivatives result from a service provided to certain qualifying customers and, therefore, are not used to manage interest rate risk in the Company’s assets or liabilities. The Company manages a matched book with respect to its derivative instruments in order to minimize its net risk exposure resulting from such transactions. In October 2018, the Company entered into an interest rate swap transaction as part of its ongoing interest rate management strategies to hedge the risk of its floating rate loans. The notional amount of the swap was $400 million with a contractual termination date of October 6, 2025. Under the terms of the swap, the Company received a fixed rate of interest of 3.018% and paid a floating rate of interest equal to one-month USD-LIBOR. The floating rate reset monthly and net settlements of interest due to/from the counterparty also occurred monthly. Due to lower market interest rates, the Company received net interest settlements which were recorded as loan interest income. If USD-LIBOR exceeded the fixed rate of interest, the Company was required to pay net settlements to the counterparty and record those net payments as a reduction of interest income on loans. The effective portion of the gain or loss on the derivative was reported as a component of other comprehensive income and reclassified into earnings in the same period or periods during which the hedged transaction affected earnings. Gains and losses on the derivative representing either hedge ineffectiveness or hedge components excluded from the assessment of effectiveness are recognized in current earnings. In March 2020, the Company and its swap counterparty mutually agreed to terminate the $400 million interest rate swap prior to its contractual maturity. The Company was paid $45.9 million from its swap counterparty as a result of this termination. In March 2022, the Company entered into another interest rate swap transaction as part of its ongoing interest rate management strategies to hedge the risk of its floating rate loans. The notional amount of the swap is $300 million with an effective date of March 1, 2022 and a termination date of March 1, 2024. Under the terms of the swap, the Company will receive a fixed rate of interest of 1.6725% and will pay a floating rate of interest equal to one-month USD-LIBOR. The floating rate will be reset monthly and net settlements of interest due to/from the counterparty will also occur monthly. The initial floating rate of interest was set at 0.24143%. The Company will receive net interest settlements which will be recorded as loan interest income, to the extent that the fixed rate of interest exceeds one-month USD-LIBOR. If USD-LIBOR exceeds the fixed rate of interest in future periods, the Company will be required to pay net settlements to the counterparty and will record those net payments as a reduction of interest income on loans. In July 2022, the Company entered into two interest rate swap transactions as part of its ongoing interest rate management strategies to hedge the risk of its floating rate loans. The notional amount of each swap is $200 million with an effective date of May 1 2023 and a termination date of May 1, 2028. Under the terms of one swap, beginning in May 2023, the Company will receive a fixed rate of interest of 2.628% and will pay a floating rate of interest equal to one-month USD-SOFR OIS. Under the terms of the other swap, beginning in May 2023, the Company will receive a fixed rate of interest of 5.725% and will pay a floating rate of interest equal to one-month USD-Prime. In each case, the floating rate will be reset monthly and net settlements of interest due to/from the counterparty will also occur monthly. To the extent the fixed rate of interest exceeds the floating rate of interest, the Company will receive net interest settlements, which will be recorded as loan interest income. If the floating rate of interest exceeds the fixed rate of interest, the Company will be required to pay net settlements to the counterparty and will record those net payments as a reduction of interest income on loans.