Item 1A. Risk Factors
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
You should consider carefully the following risks and uncertainties when reading this Annual Report. If any of the following risks actually occurs, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected. In that event, the trading price of our common stock could decline. Although we believe that we have identified and discussed below the key risk factors affecting our business, there may be additional risks and uncertainties that are not presently known or that are not currently believed to be significant that may adversely affect our performance or financial condition.
Risks Relating to Our Business and Industry
The COVID-19 global pandemic and measures intended to prevent its spread present material uncertainty and risk and have had, and are expected to continue to have, a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows.
The COVID-19 global pandemic that began in the first quarter of 2020 has both ebbed and surged multiple times since in many parts of the United States, with a resultant cycle of the imposition, lapsing and re-imposition of federal, state and local restrictions on our ability to operate. These restrictions included restrictions on business operations, freedom of travel, border closings, shelter in place orders, and quarantines. The pandemic and the related preventative and protective actions have adversely impacted the global economy, resulted in unprecedented levels of unemployment, reduced consumer confidence and discretionary consumer spending, disrupted global supply chains, and created significant volatility in financial markets.
The pandemic and the related actions have materially adversely impacted our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows, including through the temporary store closures that began in March 2020, as well as reductions in operating hours and decreases in store traffic which continued through the balance of fiscal 2020.
As a result of the temporary store closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we withheld store rent for the closure period. With respect to virtually all of our lease portfolio, we have resumed rent payments, and in most cases, agreed to rent deferrals and/or abatements related to this closure period with landlords. If, in response to additional store closures, we were to decide to withhold rent, all or some of our landlords could claim that our failure to pay rent is a default under our leases and seek remedies such as damages, acceleration of lease payments and/or termination of the subject leases. A successful assertion by the landlords of a breach of a significant number of our leases could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, profitability and cash flows.
If the pandemic were to worsen or continue for a longer period than currently anticipated, business and consumer responses to the pandemic could adversely affect, among other aspects of our business:
• our ability to maintain and increase sales and margins and to execute effectively on our business plans;
• our ability to identify and respond effectively to changes in consumer preferences and behavior, including decreased consumer discretionary spending;
• our ability to implement and maintain safety measures to keep our employees and customers safe;
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• our ability to generate increased sales through our e-commerce website and curbside pickup (in the event any store is required to be closed to the public);
• our ability to receive products from our vendors and to distribute such products to our store locations;
• our vendors’ ability to manufacture and distribute products to us;
• our business partners’ ability to operate or manage increases in their operating costs and other supply chain effects that may have an adverse effect on our ability to meet consumer demand and achieve cost targets;
• our ability to comply with financial covenants in credit agreements and with credit terms in agreements with our suppliers; and
• our ability to restructure our lease obligations.
Any of the negative impacts of the pandemic, including those described above, alone or in combination with others, may exacerbate many of the risk factors discussed otherwise herein. The full extent to which the pandemic will negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows will depend on future developments that are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic and actions taken by governmental authorities businesses and customers in response to the pandemic.
We may not be able to successfully implement our growth strategy on a timely basis or at all, which could harm our growth and results of operations.
Our growth is dependent on our ability to open profitable new stores. We believe we have an opportunity to continue to grow our store base from 1,020 stores in 38 states as of January 30, 2021 to more than 2,500 locations over time.
Our ability to open profitable new stores depends on many factors, including our ability to:
• identify suitable markets and sites for new stores;
• negotiate leases with acceptable terms;
• achieve brand awareness in the new markets;
• efficiently source and distribute additional merchandise;
• expand our distribution capacity by successfully opening and operating new distribution centers;
• maintain adequate distribution capacity, information systems and other operational system capabilities;
• hire, train and retain store management and other qualified employees; and
• achieve sufficient levels of cash flow and financing to support our expansion.
Unavailability of attractive store locations, delays in the acquisition or opening of new stores, delays or costs resulting from a decrease in commercial development due to capital constraints, difficulties in staffing and operating new store locations or lack of customer acceptance of stores in new market areas may negatively impact our new store growth and the costs or the profitability associated with new stores.
Additionally, some of our new stores may be located in areas where we have little experience or a lack of brand recognition. Those markets may have different competitive conditions, market conditions, consumer tastes and discretionary spending patterns than our existing markets, which may cause these new stores to be less successful than stores in our existing markets. Other new stores may be located in areas where we have existing stores. Although we have experience in these markets, increasing the number of locations in these markets may result in inadvertent over-saturation of markets and temporarily or permanently divert customers and sales from our existing stores, thereby adversely affecting our overall financial performance.
Accordingly, we cannot guarantee that we will achieve our planned growth or, even if we are able to grow our store base as planned, that any new stores will perform as planned. If we fail to successfully implement our growth strategy, we will not be able to sustain the rapid growth in sales and profits that we expect, which would likely have an adverse impact on the price of our common stock.
Any disruption in our ability to select, obtain, distribute and market merchandise attractive to customers at prices that allow us to profitably sell such merchandise could impact our business negatively.
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We generally have been able to select and obtain sufficient quantities of attractive merchandise at prices that allow us to be profitable. If we are unable to continue to select products that are attractive to our customers, to obtain such products at costs that allow us to sell such products at a profit, or to market such products effectively to consumers, our sales or profitability could be affected adversely. In addition, the success of our business depends in part on our ability to anticipate, identify and respond promptly to evolving trends in demographics and consumer preferences, expectations and needs. If we are unable to quickly respond to developing trends or if the spending patterns or demographics of these markets change, and we do not timely and appropriately respond to such changes, then the demand for our products, which are discretionary, and our market share could be adversely affected. Failure to maintain attractive stores and to timely identify or effectively respond to changing consumer needs, preferences and spending patterns could adversely affect our relationship with customers, the demand for our products and our market share.
Any disruption in the supply or increase in pricing of our merchandise could negatively impact our ability to achieve anticipated operating results. The products we sell are sourced from a wide variety of domestic and international vendors. We have not experienced any difficulty in obtaining sufficient quantities of core merchandise and believe that, if one or more of our current sources of supply become unavailable, we would generally be able to obtain alternative sources without experiencing a substantial disruption of our business. However, such alternative sources could increase our merchandise costs and reduce the quality of our merchandise, and an inability to obtain alternative sources could affect our sales.
Our reliance on merchandise manufactured outside of the United States subjects us to legal, regulatory, political and economic risks. In particular, tariffs imposed by the U.S. government could increase the cost to us of certain products, lower our margins, increase our import related expenses, cause us to increase our prices to consumers, and reduce consumer spending on discretionary items, each of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of future operations.
A significant majority of our merchandise is manufactured outside of the United States, and changes in the prices and flow of these goods for any reason could have an adverse impact on our operations. The United States and other countries have occasionally proposed and enacted protectionist trade policies, which may result in changes in tariff structures and trade policies and restrictions that could increase the cost or reduce the availability of certain merchandise. For example, in 2018 and 2019 the United States imposed increased tariffs on certain imports from China (up to 30%), and the then-President of the United States, at one point, directed United States companies to immediately begin to look for alternatives to China and suggested he had the authority to order United States companies to cease production in, and importation from, China. Although a partial trade deal has been reached between the United States and China, the trade issues between these countries are not fully resolved. The trade issues between the United States and China may continue to be volatile and difficult to predict or forecast.
Increased tariffs as well as any newly imposed tariffs on items imported from China or elsewhere would likely result in lower gross margins on impacted products, unless we are able to successfully take any one or more of the following mitigating actions: negotiate lower product costs with our vendors, purchase products produced in countries with no or lower tariffs or transition away from domestic vendors who source from China or other tariff impacted countries, increase our prices, or alter or cease offering certain products. Any increase in pricing, alteration of products or reduced product offering could reduce the competitiveness of our products. Furthermore, any retaliatory counter-measures imposed by countries subject to such tariffs, such as China, could increase our, or our vendors’, import expenses. Additionally, even if the products we import are not directly impacted by additional tariffs, the imposition of such additional tariffs on goods imported into the United States could cause increased prices for consumer goods in general, which could have a negative impact on consumer spending for discretionary items reducing demand for our products. These direct and indirect impacts of increased tariffs or trade restrictions implemented by the United States, both individually and cumulatively, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of future operations.
It has also been suggested that the United States may materially modify or withdraw from some of its existing trade agreements. Any of these or other measures, if ultimately enacted, or events relating to the manufacturers of our merchandise and the countries in which they are located, some or all of which are beyond our control, could adversely affect our ability to access suitable merchandise on acceptable terms, negatively impact our operations, increase costs and lower our margins. Such events or circumstances include, but are not limited to:
• political and economic instability;
• the financial instability and labor problems of the manufacturers of our merchandise;
• the availability and cost of raw materials;
• merchandise quality or safety issues;
• changes in currency exchange rates;
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• the regulatory environment in the countries in which the manufacturers of our merchandise are located;
• work stoppages or other employee rights issues;
• inflation or deflation; and
• transportation availability, costs and disruptions.
Moreover, negative press or reports about products manufactured outside the United States may sway public opinion, and thus customer confidence, away from the products sold in our stores. These and other factors affecting the manufacturers of our merchandise who are located outside of the United States and our access to our products could adversely affect our financial performance.
We have implemented price increases in an effort to mitigate current and future cost increases. These or future price increases could reduce our unit sales, damage our reputation with our customers as an extreme value retailer, or cause us to become less competitive in the marketplace, each of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of future operations.
We, like many retailers, are and may in the future be subject to increasing operational costs, including escalating product costs, the imposition of tariffs on imported goods, and higher wage and benefits costs in response to legislative requirements and competitive pressures. In fiscal 2019 we implemented price increases (including beyond $5 per item) in an effort to mitigate some or all of the risks of such operational cost increases. We can offer no assurances that price increases will be accepted by our customers, or that price increases will be sufficient to offset the impact of future cost increases. In addition, any increase in our prices may cause our unit sales to decline, and could undermine our positioning as an extreme value retailer making us less attractive to our customers and less competitive in the marketplace. Accordingly, such factors could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of future operations.
Our sales depend on a volume of traffic to our stores, and a reduction in traffic to, or the closing of, anchor tenants and other destination retailers in the shopping centers in which our stores are located could significantly reduce our sales and leave us with excess inventory.
Most of our stores are located in power, community and lifestyle shopping centers that benefit from the ability of “anchor” retail tenants, generally big box stores, and other destination retailers and attractions to generate sufficient levels of consumer traffic in the vicinity of our stores. Any decline in the volume of consumer traffic at shopping centers, whether because of consumer preferences to shop on the internet or at large warehouse stores, an economic slowdown, a decline in the popularity of shopping centers, the closing of anchor stores or other destination retailers or otherwise, could result in reduced sales at our stores and leave us with excess inventory, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial results or business. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, our business operations and results of operations, including our net sales, earnings and cash flows, were materially impacted in fiscal 2020 due to, in part, decreased customer traffic in stores, including, without limitation, on account of limitations on the number of persons permitted in stores at one time by certain local and state regulations. If the pandemic were to worsen again, our business operations and results of operations may again be materially impacted by a number of factors including a decrease in customer traffic.
Our new store growth is dependent upon our ability to successfully expand our distribution network capacity, and failure to achieve or sustain these plans could affect our performance adversely.
We maintain distribution centers in Pedricktown, New Jersey, Olive Branch, Mississippi, Forsyth, Georgia, Conroe, Texas and Cincinnati, Ohio. We continuously assess ways to maximize the productivity and efficiency of our existing distribution facilities and evaluate opportunities for additional distribution centers. In August 2019, we acquired land in Conroe, Texas, to build an approximately 860,000 square foot distribution center, which we began operating in July 2020. In July 2020, we acquired land in Buckeye, Arizona, to build an approximately 860,000 square foot distribution center, which we expect to occupy in the second half of 2021. In addition, we are planning to lease or build new distribution centers over the next few years to support our growth. Delays in opening the planned new distribution centers could adversely affect our future operations by slowing store growth, which could in turn reduce sales growth. In addition, any distribution-related construction or expansion projects entail risks which could cause delays and cost overruns, such as: shortages of materials; shortages of skilled labor or work stoppages; unforeseen construction, scheduling, engineering, environmental or geological problems; weather interference; fires or other casualty losses; and unanticipated cost increases. The completion date and ultimate cost of future projects, including opening the planned new distribution centers could differ significantly from initial expectations due to construction-related or other reasons. We cannot guarantee that any project will be completed on time or within established budgets.
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In addition, the fixed costs associated with owning, operating and maintaining our distribution centers during a period of economic weakness or declining sales can result in lower operating efficiencies, financial deleverage and potential impairment in the recorded value of distribution assets. This fixed cost structure may adversely affect profitability if sales volumes decline for an extended period of time and could have material adverse effects on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flow.
Furthermore, our distribution centers in Forsyth, Georgia, Conroe, Texas and Buckeye, Arizona subject us to the risks of owning real property, which include, but are not limited to:
• the possibility of environmental contamination and the costs associated with remediating any environmental problems;
• adverse changes in the value of this property, and any future properties we may own, due to interest rate changes, changes in the neighborhood in which the property is located, or other factors;
• the possible need for structural improvements in order to comply with zoning, seismic and other legal or regulatory requirements;
• the potential disruption of our business and operations arising from or connected with a relocation due to moving to or renovating the facility;
• increased cash commitments for improvements to the building or the property, or both;
• increased operating expenses for the buildings or the property, or both; and
• the risk of financial loss in excess of amounts covered by insurance, or uninsured risks, such as the loss caused by damage to the buildings as a result of earthquakes, floods and/or other natural disasters.
A significant disruption to our distribution network or to the timely receipt of inventory could adversely impact sales or increase our transportation costs, which would decrease our profits.
Because most of our products are distributed from our distribution centers, the unexpected loss of any one of our distribution centers, due to natural disaster or otherwise, would materially affect our operations. We also rely upon independent third-party transportation to provide goods to our stores in a timely and cost-effective manner, through deliveries to our distribution centers from vendors and then from the distribution centers or direct ship vendors to our stores. Our use of outside delivery services for shipments is subject to risks outside of our control and any disruption, unanticipated expense or operational failure related to this process could affect store operations negatively. In fiscal 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted our supply chain. Although we were able to mitigate the impact to our business from such disruptions there can be no guaranty that we would be able to mitigate future COVID-19 related disruptions. For example, unexpected delivery delays or increases in transportation costs (including through increased fuel costs or a decrease in transportation capacity for overseas shipments or resulting from labor shortages or work stoppages) could significantly decrease our ability to generate sales and earn profits. If we change shipping companies, we could face logistical difficulties that could adversely impact deliveries and we would incur costs and expend resources in connection with such change. Moreover, we may not be able to obtain terms as favorable as those received from the independent third-party transportation providers we currently use, which would increase our costs. Additionally, long-term disruptions to the United States and international transportation infrastructure from wars, political unrest, terrorism, natural disasters, governmental budget constraints and other significant events that could lead to delays or interruptions of service could adversely affect our business. As we seek to expand our operation through the implementation of our online retail capabilities, we may face increased or unexpected demands on distribution center operations, as well as new demands on our distribution network.
Extreme weather conditions common to areas in which many of our stores are located could negatively affect our business and results of operations, particularly as such extreme conditions occur during what is typically our most profitable quarter.
Extreme weather conditions in the areas in which our stores are located could negatively affect our business and results of operations. We have a significant number of stores in the Northeastern and Midwestern regions of the United States, which are prone to inclement weather conditions, as well as severe storms. Such inclement weather could have a significant impact on consumer behavior, travel and store traffic patterns, as well as our ability to operate our stores. For example, frequent or unusually heavy snowfall, ice storms, rainstorms or other extreme weather conditions over a prolonged period could make it difficult for our customers to travel to our stores and thereby reduce our sales and profitability. In addition, we typically generate higher revenues and gross margins during our fourth fiscal quarter, which includes the year-end holiday season. If weather conditions are not favorable during these periods, our operating results and cash flow from operations could be adversely affected.
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If we are unable to secure our customers’ confidential or credit card information, or other private data relating to our employees or our Company, we could be subject to negative publicity, costly government enforcement actions or private litigation, which could damage our business reputation and adversely affect our financial results.
As with other companies, we are periodically subject to cyberattacks. Cyberattacks and other cyber incidents are occurring more frequently, are constantly evolving in nature, are becoming more sophisticated and are being made by groups and individuals (including criminal hackers, hacktivists, state-sponsored institutions, terrorist organizations and individuals or groups participating in organized crime) with a wide range of expertise and motives (including monetization of corporate, payment or other internal or personal data, theft of trade secrets and intellectual property for competitive advantage and leverage for political, social, economic and environmental reasons). Such cyberattacks and cyber incidents can take many forms including cyber extortion, denial of service, social engineering, such as impersonation attempts to fraudulently induce employees or others to disclose information or unwittingly provide access to systems or data, introduction of viruses or malware, such as ransomware through phishing emails, website defacement or theft of passwords and other credentials. Although we may incur significant costs in protecting against or remediating cyberattacks or other cyber incidents, no cyberattack or other cyber incident has, to our knowledge, had a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations to date.
The protection of our customer, employee and company data is critical to us. The regulatory environment surrounding information security and privacy is increasingly demanding, with the frequent imposition of new and constantly changing requirements that affect our business. In addition, customers have a high expectation that we will adequately protect their personal information from cyberattack or other security breaches. We have procedures and technology in place designed to safeguard our customers’ debit and credit card and other personal information, our employees’ private data and company records, intellectual property and other confidential information, and we continue to devote significant resources to network security, backup and disaster recovery, and other security measures, including training, to protect our systems and data. Nevertheless, these security measures cannot provide absolute security or guarantee that we will be successful in preventing or responding to every such breach or disruption, including through the intentional or negligent actions of our employees, business associates or third parties. As a result, unauthorized parties may obtain access to our data systems and misappropriate customer data and company confidential information.
There can be no assurance that advances in computer capabilities, new discoveries in the field of cryptography or other developments will prevent the compromise of our customer transaction processing capabilities and personal data. Furthermore, because the techniques used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service, or sabotage systems change frequently and often are not recognized until launched against a target, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or to implement adequate preventative measures. If any such compromise of our security or the security of information residing with our business associates or third parties were to occur, we could be exposed to negative publicity, government enforcement actions, card issuer fines and/or penalties, private litigation or costly response measures. In addition, our reputation within the business community and with our customers may be affected, which could result in our customers discontinuing the use of debit or credit cards in our stores, or not shopping in our stores altogether. This could cause us to lose market share to our competitors and could have an adverse effect on our financial results.
We are subject to customer payment-related risks that could increase operating costs or exposure to fraud or theft, subject us to potential liability and potentially disrupt our business.
We accept payments using a variety of methods, including cash, credit and debit cards and gift cards. Acceptance of these payment options subjects us to rules, regulations, contractual obligations and compliance requirements, including payment network rules and operating guidelines, data security standards and certification requirements, and rules governing electronic funds transfers. Any inability to comply with such requirements may subject us to increased risk of liability for fraudulent transactions and may adversely affect our business and operating results.
For certain payment methods, including credit and debit cards, we pay interchange and other fees, which may increase over time and raise our operating costs. We rely on third parties to provide payment processing services, including the processing of credit cards, debit cards, and other forms of electronic payment. If these companies become unable to provide these services to us, or if their systems are compromised, it could potentially disrupt our business. The payment methods that we offer also subject us to potential fraud and theft by criminals, who are becoming increasingly more sophisticated, seeking to obtain unauthorized access to or exploit weaknesses that may exist in the payment systems. If we fail to comply with applicable rules or requirements for the payment methods we accept, or if payment-related data is compromised due to a breach or misuse of data, we may be liable for costs incurred by payment card issuing banks and other third parties or subject to fines and higher transaction fees, or our ability to accept or facilitate certain types of payments may be impaired. In addition, our customers could lose confidence in certain payment types, which may result in a shift to other payment types or potential changes to our payment systems that may result in higher costs. As a result, our business and operating results could be adversely affected.
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Our growth from existing stores is dependent upon our ability to increase sales and improve the efficiencies, costs and effectiveness of our operations, and failure to achieve or sustain these plans could affect our performance adversely.
Increases in sales in existing stores are dependent on factors such as competition, including from online retailers, merchandise selection, store operations and customer satisfaction. If we fail to realize our goals of successfully managing our store operations and increasing our customer retention and recruitment levels, our sales may not increase and our growth may be impacted adversely.
Our success depends on our executive officers, senior management, district, store, and distribution center managers, and other key personnel. If we lose our executive officers, senior management, district, store, and distribution center managers, or any other key personnel, or are unable to hire additional qualified personnel, our business could be harmed.
Our future success depends to a significant degree on the skills, experience and efforts of our executive officers, senior management, district, store, and distribution center managers, and other key personnel, including Joel Anderson, our President and Chief Executive Officer. The loss of the services of any of our executive officers, senior management, district, store, and distribution center managers, or other key personnel could have an adverse effect on our operations. Competition for skilled and experienced management in the retail industry is intense, and our future success will also depend on our ability to attract, retain and motivate qualified personnel, as a failure to attract these key personnel could have an adverse effect on our operations. We do not currently maintain key person life insurance policies with respect to our executive officers or key personnel.
Our profitability and cash flows from operations may be negatively affected if we are not successful in managing our inventory balances and inventory shrinkage.
Our inventory balance represented approximately 12% of our total assets as of January 30, 2021. Efficient inventory management is a key component of our business success and profitability. To be successful, we must maintain sufficient inventory levels and an appropriate product mix to meet our customers’ demands without allowing those levels to increase to such an extent that the costs to store and hold the goods unduly impacts our financial results. If our buying decisions do not accurately predict customer trends or purchasing actions, or if our expectations about customer spending levels are inaccurate, we may have to take unanticipated markdowns to dispose of excess inventory, which also can adversely impact our financial results. We also experience inventory shrinkage, and we cannot assure you that incidences of inventory loss and theft will stay at acceptable levels or decrease in the future, or that the measures we are taking will effectively address the problem of inventory shrinkage. We continue to focus on ways to reduce these risks, but we cannot assure you that we will be successful in our inventory management. If we are not successful in managing our inventory balances, our profitability and cash flows from operations may be negatively affected.
Our business requires that we lease substantial amounts of space and there can be no assurance that we will be able to continue to lease space on terms as favorable as the leases negotiated in the past.
Currently, we lease all of our store locations, as well as our corporate headquarters and distribution facilities in Pedricktown, New Jersey, Olive Branch, Mississippi and Cincinnati, Ohio (and own our distribution centers in Forsyth, Georgia, Conroe, Texas and land in Buckeye, Arizona, where we expect to build a distribution center). Our stores are leased from third parties, with typical initial lease terms of ten years. Many of our lease agreements also have additional five-year renewal options. Historically, we have been able to negotiate terms that fit within our economic model and that we believe are favorable; however, there is no guarantee that we will be able to continue to negotiate such terms. Consolidation in the commercial retail real estate market could affect our ability to successfully negotiate favorable rental terms for our stores in the future. Should significant consolidation occur, a large proportion of our store base could be concentrated with one or a few landlords that would then be in a position to dictate unfavorable terms to us due to their significant negotiating leverage. Many of our lease agreements have defined escalating rent provisions over the initial term and any extensions. Increases in our occupancy costs and difficulty in identifying economically suitable new store locations could have significant negative consequences, which include:
• requiring that a greater portion of our available cash be applied to pay our rental obligations, thus reducing cash available for other purposes and reducing our profitability;
• increasing our vulnerability to general adverse economic and industry conditions; and
• limiting our flexibility in planning for, or reacting to changes in, our business or in the industry in which we compete.
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We depend on cash flow from operations to pay our lease expenses and to fulfill our other cash needs. If our business does not generate sufficient cash flow from operating activities to fund these expenses and needs and sufficient funds are not otherwise available to us, we may not be able to service our lease expenses, grow our business, respond to competitive challenges or fund our other liquidity and capital needs, which could harm our business. If an existing or future store is not profitable, and we decide to close it, we may nonetheless be committed to perform our obligations under the applicable lease including, among other things, paying the base rent for the balance of the lease term. Moreover, even if a lease has an early cancellation clause, we may not satisfy the contractual requirements for early cancellation under that lease. In addition, if we are not able to enter into new leases or renew existing leases on terms acceptable to us, this could have an adverse effect on our results of operations.
Operational difficulties, including those associated with our ability to either lease or build and operate our distribution centers, could adversely impact our business.
We maintain a network of distribution centers and are planning to lease or build new distribution centers over the next few years to support our growth objectives. Delays in opening these new distribution centers could adversely affect our future financial performance by slowing store growth, which may in turn reduce revenue growth, or by increasing transportation costs. In addition, distribution center-related construction entails risks that could cause delays and cost overruns, such as: shortages of materials or skilled labor; work stoppages; unforeseen construction, scheduling, engineering, environmental or geological problems; weather interference; fires or other casualty losses; and unanticipated cost increases. The completion date and ultimate cost of these projects could differ significantly from initial expectations due to construction-related or other reasons. We cannot guarantee that these distribution centers or any future operational projects will be completed on time or within established budgets. Additionally, potential ownership of these facilities and of additional facilities which we may lease, acquire, build and own in the future, entails risks of our ability to comply with regulations restricting the construction and operation of these facilities, as well as local community actions opposed to the location of our facilities at specific sites and the adoption of local laws restricting our operations and environmental regulations, which may impact our ability to find suitable locations, and increase the cost of sites and of constructing, leasing and operating our facilities. We also may have difficulty negotiating real estate purchase agreements or leases on acceptable terms. Failure to manage these and other similar factors effectively may affect our ability to timely build or lease new facilities, which could have a material adverse effect on our future growth and profitability.
We operate in a competitive environment and, as a result, we may not be able to compete effectively or maintain or increase our sales, market shares or margins.
We operate in a highly competitive retail environment with numerous competitors, including online retailers, some of which have greater resources or better brand recognition than we do. We compete with respect to customers, price, store location, merchandise quality and supply, assortment and presentation, in-stock consistency, customer service and employees. This competitive environment subjects us to various risks, including the ability to provide quality, trend-right merchandise to our customers at competitive prices that allow us to maintain our profitability. Because of our low price model, we may have limited ability to increase prices in response to increased costs without losing competitive position which may adversely affect our margins and financial performance. In addition, price reductions by our competitors may result in the reduction of our prices and a corresponding reduction in our profitability. Accordingly, we may face periods of intense competition in the future, which could have a material adverse effect on our profitability and results of operations.
Consolidation among retailers, changes in pricing of merchandise or offerings of other services by competitors could have a negative impact on the relative attractiveness of our stores to consumers. We do not possess exclusive rights to many of the elements that comprise our in-store experience and product offerings. Our competitors may seek to copy our business strategy and in-store experience, which could result in a reduction of any competitive advantage or special appeal that we might possess. In addition, most of our products are sold to us on a non-exclusive basis. As a result, our current and future competitors may be able to duplicate or improve on some or all of our in-store experience or product offerings that we believe are important in differentiating our stores and our customers’ shopping experience. If our competitors were to duplicate or improve on some or all of our in-store experience or product offerings, our competitive position and our business could suffer. Our ability to provide quality, trend-right products at attractive, competitive prices could be impacted by various actions of our competitors that are beyond our control.
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Our business is seasonal, and adverse events during the holiday season could have a substantial negative impact on our operating results.
Our business is seasonal, with the highest percentage of sales (approximately 40% of total annual sales over the last two fiscal years) occurring during the fourth fiscal quarter (November, December and January), which includes the year-end holiday season. This increased percentage of net sales has historically resulted in the highest percentages of net income during the fourth fiscal quarter. We purchase substantial amounts of inventory in the end of the third fiscal quarter (October) and beginning of the fourth fiscal quarter (November and December) and incur higher shipping costs and higher payroll costs in anticipation of the increased sales activity during these time periods. Adverse events, such as inclement or unusual weather, deteriorating economic conditions, higher unemployment, increased wage rates, higher gas prices or public transportation disruptions could result in lower-than-planned sales during the holiday season which may lead to unanticipated markdowns. Since we rely on third parties for transportation and use third-party warehouses when we build up inventory, a number of these factors are outside of our control. An unsuccessful fourth quarter, or holiday season, will have a substantial negative impact on our financial condition and results of operations for the entire fiscal year.
We may not be successful in our continued expansion into online retail and if we are successful, we will face new risks and challenges, which could adversely affect our results of operations.
We sell merchandise on the internet, through our fivebelow.com e-commerce website. Our ability to successfully execute a further expansion of our e-commerce strategy may suffer if we are unable to sell and fulfill our products in a cost-efficient manner.
In addition, if we are successful, we will encounter risks and difficulties frequently experienced by internet-based businesses, including risks related to our ability to attract and retain customers on a cost-effective basis and our ability to operate, support, expand and develop our internet operations, website and software and other related operational systems. Although we believe that our participation in both e-commerce and physical store sales will be a distinct advantage for us due to synergies, the potential for new customers and increased brand recognition nationwide in markets where we do not yet have stores, supporting product offerings through both of these channels could create issues that have the potential to adversely affect our results of operations. For example, if our e-commerce business successfully grows, it may do so in part by attracting existing customers, rather than new customers, who choose to purchase products from us online rather than from our physical stores, thereby reducing the financial performance of our stores. In addition, selling products through the internet exposes us to the potential for fraud associated with “card-not-present” credit card transactions that does not exist for physical store sales. Criminals are using increasingly sophisticated methods to engage in illegal activities such as unauthorized use of credit or debit cards and bank account information. Requirements relating to consumer authentication and fraud detection are more complex for online sales than for physical store sales. We may be denied the revenues associated with orders resulting from the unauthorized use of a cardholder’s card number in an illegal activity even if the associated financial institution approved payment of the orders.
Our inability to upgrade or expand, our technology systems as a result of external factors, staffing shortages or difficulties in updating our existing technology or developing or implementing new technology could have a material adverse effect on our business or results of operations.
We are continuing to expand, upgrade and develop our information technology capabilities, including, most recently, our core-enterprise resource planning system (or "ERP") which we implemented through Oracle software in fiscal 2020, and the re-launch of our e-commerce website on the Hollar platform in fiscal 2020. In addition, in fiscal 2021, we are planning to adopt a new enterprise wide human capital management system. If we are unable to successfully continue upgrading or expanding our technological capabilities to support our growth we may not be able to take advantage of market opportunities, manage our costs and transactional data effectively, satisfy customer requirements, execute our business plan or respond to competitive pressures. In addition, costs and potential problems and interruptions associated with the implementation of new or upgraded systems and technology, or with maintenance or adequate support of existing systems, could also disrupt or reduce the efficiency of our operations.
Some of our information technology systems are currently outsourced to, or using cloud-based services provided by, third parties. If these third parties are unable, unwilling, or otherwise experience interruptions in their ability to provide services to us or to provide us access to the systems on which we rely, this would disrupt or reduce the efficiency of our operations if we are unable to convert to alternate systems in an efficient and timely manner. Furthermore, if these third parties are unable to secure our private data from cyberattacks and other cyber incidents, it may disrupt or reduce the efficiency of our operations or otherwise have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or reputation.
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We also rely heavily on our information technology staff. Failure to meet these staffing needs may negatively affect our ability to fulfill our technology initiatives while continuing to provide maintenance on existing systems. We rely on certain vendors to maintain and periodically upgrade many of these systems so that they can continue to support our business. The software programs supporting many of our systems were licensed to us by independent software developers. The inability of these developers or us to continue to maintain and upgrade these information systems and software programs would disrupt or reduce the efficiency of our operations if we are unable to convert to alternate systems in an efficient and timely manner.
We are exposed to the risk of natural disasters, adverse weather conditions, pandemic outbreaks, global political events, war and terrorism that could disrupt business and result in lower sales, increased operating costs and capital expenditures.
Our headquarters, store locations and distribution centers, as well as certain of our vendors and customers, are located in areas which have been and could be subject to natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, fires or earthquakes. Adverse weather conditions or other extreme changes in the weather, including resulting electrical and technological failures, may disrupt our business and may adversely affect our ability to sell and distribute products. In addition, we operate in markets that are susceptible to pandemic outbreaks, including COVID-19, or terrorist acts, and our operations may be affected by disruptive political events, both global and domestic, such as civil unrest in countries in which our vendors are located or products are manufactured, and in the US, where protests and other disturbances have affected, and may continue to affect, our ability to operate our stores.
Our business may be harmed if our ability to sell and distribute products is impacted by any such events, any of which could influence customer trends and purchases and may negatively impact our net sales, properties or operations. Such events could result in physical damage to one or more of our properties, the temporary closure of some or all of our stores or distribution centers, the temporary lack of an adequate work force in a market, temporary or long-term disruption in the transport of goods, decreases in transportation capacity, increases in transportation costs, delay in the delivery of goods to our distribution centers or stores, disruption of our technology support or information systems, or fuel shortages or dramatic increases in fuel prices, which increase the cost of doing business. These events also can have indirect consequences such as increases in the costs of insurance if they result in significant loss of property or other insurable damage. Any of these factors, or combination thereof, could adversely affect our operations.
Changes to federal, state or provincial income tax legislation could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
From time to time, new tax legislation is adopted by the federal government and various states or other regulatory bodies. Significant changes in tax legislation could adversely affect our business or results of operations in a material way. On December 22, 2017, the U.S. government enacted comprehensive tax legislation commonly referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the "TCJA"). The changes included in the TCJA are broad and complex. The final transition impacts of the TCJA may differ from the estimates provided elsewhere in this report, possibly materially, due to, among other things, changes in interpretations of the TCJA, any legislative action to address questions that arise because of the TCJA, any changes in accounting standards for income taxes or related interpretations in response to the TCJA, or any updates or changes to estimates we have utilized to calculate the transition impacts, including impacts from changes to current year earnings estimates. As these and other tax laws and related regulations change, our financial results could be materially impacted. Given the unpredictability of possible changes and their potential interdependency, it is very difficult to assess whether the overall effect of such potential tax changes would be cumulatively positive or negative for our earnings and cash flow, but such changes could adversely impact our financial results.
Our current insurance programs may expose us to unexpected costs and negatively affect our financial performance.
Our insurance coverage is subject to deductibles, limits of liability and similar provisions that we believe are prudent based on our overall operations. We may incur certain types of losses that we cannot insure or which we believe are not economically reasonable to insure, such as losses due to acts of war, employee and certain other crime, and some natural disasters. If we incur these losses and they are material, our business could suffer. Certain material events may result in sizable losses for the insurance industry and adversely impact the availability of adequate insurance coverage or result in excessive premium increases. To offset negative cost trends in the insurance market, we may elect to self-insure, accept higher deductibles or reduce the amount of coverage in response to these market changes. In addition, because of ongoing changes in healthcare law, among other things, we may experience an increase in participation in our group health insurance programs, which may lead to a greater number of medical claims. If we experience a greater number of these losses than we anticipate, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
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If we are unable to enforce our intellectual property rights, if we are accused of infringing a third party’s intellectual property rights, or if the merchandise we purchase from brand partners is alleged to have infringed a third party’s intellectual property rights, our business or results of operations may be adversely affected.
Our future success and competitive position depend in part on our ability to maintain and protect our brand. We currently own various intellectual property rights in the United States that differentiate us from our competitors, including our trademarks, such as the “Five Below®,” “Ten Below®” and “Five Below Hot Stuff. Cool Prices®” marks. We also own domain names, including www.fivebelow.com, and unregistered copyrights in our website content. We currently rely on a combination of copyright, trademark, trade dress and unfair competition laws to establish and protect our intellectual property and other proprietary rights, but the steps we take to protect such rights may be inadequate to prevent infringement of our trademarks and proprietary rights by others. Such unauthorized use of our trademarks, trade secrets, or other proprietary rights may cause significant damage to our brands and have an adverse effect on our business. The loss or reduction of any of our significant intellectual property or proprietary rights could have an adverse effect on our business.
Additionally, third parties may assert claims against us alleging infringement, misappropriation or other violations of their intellectual property or other proprietary rights, whether or not the claims have merit. Such claims could be time consuming and expensive to defend, may divert management’s attention and resources, and could harm our brand image. Defending against any such claims could have an adverse effect on our business or results of operations and cause us to incur significant litigation costs and expenses. In addition, resolution of such claims may require us to pay substantial damages with respect to past sales and to cease using the relevant intellectual property or other rights and to cease selling the allegedly infringing products, which in turn would result in our loss of the revenues and profits associated with the ongoing sale of such products, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial results. Alternatively, with respect to any third party intellectual property that we use or wish to use in our business (whether or not asserted against us in litigation), we could be required to license the applicable intellectual property rights from third parties, and we may not be able to enter into licensing or other arrangements with the owner of such intellectual property at a reasonable cost or on reasonable terms.
We purchase merchandise from vendors that may be subject to copyrights or patents, or that may otherwise incorporate protected intellectual property. We do not manufacture any of the merchandise we purchase from our vendors for sale to our customers and we do not routinely independently investigate whether our manufacturing partners hold intellectual property rights to merchandise that they are manufacturing or distributing. As a result, we rely upon the vendors’ representations and indemnifications set forth in our purchase orders and supplier agreements concerning their right to sell us the products that we purchase from them. If a third party claims to have rights with respect to merchandise we purchased from a vendor, or if we acquire unlicensed merchandise, we could be required to remove such merchandise from our stores, resulting in our loss of the revenues and profits associated with the ongoing sale of such products. In addition, we could incur costs associated with destruction of such merchandise if the vendor is unwilling or unable to reimburse us, and be subject to liability under various civil and criminal causes of action, including actions to recover unpaid royalties and other damages and injunctions. Although our purchase orders and agreements with vendors generally require the vendor to indemnify us against such claims, a vendor may not have the financial resources to defend itself or us against such claims, in which case we may have to pay the costs and expenses associated with defending such claims. Any of these results could harm our brand image and have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, cash flows and results of operations as well as our growth.
Product and food safety claims and the effects of legislation and regulations on product safety and quality and food safety and quality could affect our sales and results of operations adversely.
We may be subject to product liability claims from customers or actions brought or penalties assessed by government agencies relating to products, including food products that are recalled, defective or otherwise alleged to be harmful. Such claims may result from tampering by unauthorized third parties, product contamination or spoilage, including the presence of foreign objects, substances, chemicals, other agents, or residues introduced during the growing, storage, handling and transportation phases. All of our vendors and their products are contractually required to comply with applicable product and food safety laws. We generally seek contractual indemnification and insurance coverage from our vendors. However, if we do not have adequate contractual indemnification and/or insurance available, such claims could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Our ability to obtain indemnification from foreign vendors may be hindered by the manufacturers’ lack of understanding of U.S., state-specific or local product liability or other laws, which may make it more likely that we be required to respond to claims or complaints from customers as if we were the manufacturer of the products. Even with adequate insurance and indemnification, such claims could significantly damage our reputation and consumer confidence in our products. Our litigation expenses could increase as well, which also could have a materially negative impact on our results of operations even if a product liability claim is unsuccessful or is not fully pursued. Furthermore, if our vendors are unable or unwilling to recall products failing to meet standards, we may be required to recall those products at a substantial cost to us.
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We purchase a portion of our products on a closeout basis. Some of these products are obtained through brokers or intermediaries rather than through manufacturers. The closeout nature of a portion of our products sometimes makes it more difficult for us to investigate all aspects of these products. We attempt to assure compliance and to test products when appropriate, and we seek to obtain indemnification through our vendors or to be listed as an additional insured, but there is no assurance that these efforts will be successful.
The terms of our revolving credit facility may restrict our current and future operations, which could adversely affect our ability to respond to changes in our business and to manage our operations.
Our revolving credit facility contains, and any additional debt financing we may incur would likely contain, covenants requiring us to maintain or adhere to certain financial ratios or limits and covenants that restrict our operations, which may include limitations on our ability to, among other things:
• incur additional indebtedness;
• pay dividends and make certain distributions, investments and other restricted payments;
• create certain liens or encumbrances;
• enter into transactions with our affiliates;
• redeem our common stock; and
• engage in certain merger, consolidation or asset sale transactions.
Complying with these covenants could adversely affect our ability to respond to changes in our business and manage our operations. In addition, these covenants could affect our ability to invest capital in our new stores and fund capital expenditures for existing stores. Our ability to comply with these covenants and other provisions in the revolving credit facility and any future debt instruments may be affected by changes in our operating and financial performance, changes in general business and economic conditions, adverse regulatory developments, or other events beyond our control. A failure by us to comply with the financial ratios and restrictive covenants contained in our revolving credit facility and any future debt instruments could result in an event of default. Upon the occurrence of an event of default, the lenders could elect to declare all amounts outstanding to be due and payable and exercise other remedies as set forth in our revolving credit facility and any future debt instruments. In addition, if we are in default, we may be unable to borrow additional amounts under any such facilities to the extent that they would otherwise be available and our ability to obtain future financing may also be impacted negatively. If the indebtedness under our revolving credit facility and any future debt instruments were to be accelerated, our future financial condition could be materially adversely affected.
Risks Related to Ownership of Our Common Stock
Our stock price may be volatile or may decline regardless of our operating performance.
An active, liquid and orderly market for our common stock may not be sustained, which could depress the trading price of our common stock. In addition, broad market and industry factors, most of which we cannot control, may harm the price of our common stock, regardless of our actual operating performance. Factors that could cause fluctuation in the price of our common stock may include, among other things:
• actual or anticipated fluctuations in quarterly operating results or other operating metrics, such as comparable sales, that may be used by the investment community;
• changes in financial estimates by us or by any securities analysts who might cover our stock;
• speculation about our business in the press or the investment community;
• conditions or trends affecting our industry or the economy generally;
• stock market price and volume fluctuations of other publicly traded companies and, in particular, those that are in the retail industry;
• announcements by us or our competitors of new product offerings, significant acquisitions, strategic partnerships or divestitures;
• our entry into new markets;
• timing of new store openings;
• percentage of sales from new stores versus established stores;
• additions or departures of key personnel;
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• actual or anticipated sales of our common stock, including sales by our directors, officers or significant shareholders;
• significant developments relating to our relationships with business partners, vendors and distributors;
• customer purchases of new products from us and our competitors;
• investor perceptions of the retail industry in general and our Company in particular;
• major catastrophic events;
• volatility in our stock price, which may lead to higher share-based compensation expense under applicable accounting standards; and
• changes in accounting standards, policies, guidance, interpretation or principles, for example, the adoption of Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) ASU 2016-09, "Improvements to Employee Share-Based Payment Accounting," which involves employee share-based payment accounting and the volatility of the effective tax rate.
In the past, securities class action litigation has often been instituted against companies following periods of volatility in their stock price. For example, we and certain of our current and former senior officers had been parties to a securities class action lawsuit filed against us, which was dismissed. This type of litigation, even if it does not result in liability for us, could result in substantial costs to us and divert management's attention and resources.
Your percentage ownership in us may be diluted by future equity issuances, which could reduce your influence over matters on which shareholders vote.
Our Board of Directors has the authority, without action or vote of our shareholders, to issue all or any part of our authorized but unissued shares of common stock, including shares issuable upon the exercise of options, shares issuable upon the vesting of restricted stock units or performance-based restricted stock units, shares that may be issued to satisfy our obligations under our equity incentive plan or shares of our authorized but unissued preferred stock. As of January 30, 2021, 2.8 million stock options, restricted shares, or restricted stock units were available for grant under our equity incentive plan, and 0.6 million shares of our common stock are issuable upon the exercise of options outstanding, the vesting of restricted stock units and the vesting of performance-based restricted stock units under that plan. Exercises of these options or issuances of common stock or preferred stock could reduce your influence over matters on which our shareholders vote and, in the case of issuances of preferred stock, likely could result in your interest in us being subject to the prior rights of holders of that preferred stock.
We do not expect to pay any cash dividends for the foreseeable future.
For the foreseeable future, we do not anticipate paying any cash dividends on our common stock. Any determination to pay dividends in the future will be at the discretion of our Board of Directors and will depend upon results of operations, financial condition, contractual restrictions, including under agreements for indebtedness we may incur, restrictions imposed by applicable law and other factors our Board of Directors deems relevant. Accordingly, if you purchase shares, realization of a gain on your investment will depend on the appreciation of the price of our common stock, which may never occur. Investors seeking cash dividends in the foreseeable future should not purchase our common stock.
Anti-takeover provisions could delay and discourage takeover attempts that shareholders may consider to be favorable.
Certain provisions of our amended and restated articles of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws and applicable provisions of Pennsylvania law may make it more difficult or impossible for a third party to acquire control of us or effect a change in our Board of Directors and management.
In particular, these provisions, among other things:
• provide that only the chairman of the Board of Directors, the chief executive officer or a majority of the Board of Directors may call special meetings of the shareholders;
• classify our Board of Directors into three separate classes with staggered terms;
• provide for supermajority approval requirements for amending or repealing provisions in our amended and restated articles of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws;
• establish certain advance notice procedures for nominations of candidates for election as directors and for shareholder proposals to be considered at shareholders’ meetings; and
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• permit the Board of Directors, without further action of the shareholders, to issue and fix the terms of preferred stock, which may have rights senior to those of the common stock.
In addition, anti-takeover provisions in Pennsylvania law could make it more difficult for a third party to acquire control of us. These provisions could adversely affect the market price of our common stock and could reduce the amount that shareholders might receive if we are sold. For example, Pennsylvania law may restrict a third party's ability to obtain control of us and may prevent shareholders from receiving a premium for their shares of our common stock. Pennsylvania law also provides that our shareholders are not entitled by statute to propose amendments to our amended and restated articles of incorporation.
These and other provisions of Pennsylvania law and our amended and restated articles of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws could delay, defer or prevent us from experiencing a change of control or changes in our Board of Directors and management and may adversely affect our shareholders' voting and other rights. Any delay or prevention of a change of control transaction or changes in our Board of Directors and management could deter potential acquirers or prevent the completion of a transaction in which our shareholders could receive a substantial premium over the then current market price for their shares of our common stock.
ITEM 1B. UNRESOLVED STAFF COMMENTS
None.
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Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.