Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. 10-Q

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk Asset and Liability Management and Market Risk For a complete discussion of the Bank's asset and liability management policies, as well as the potential impact of interest rate changes upon the market value of the Bank's portfolios, see "Part II, Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2019. The analysis presented in the tables below reflects the level of market risk at the Bank, including the cash the holding company has on deposit at the Bank. The rates of interest the Bank earns on its assets and pays on its liabilities are generally established contractually for a period of time. Fluctuations in interest rates have a significant impact not only upon our net income, but also upon the cash flows and market values of our assets and liabilities. Our results of operations, like those of other financial institutions, are impacted by changes in interest rates and the interest rate sensitivity of our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. Risk associated with changes in interest rates on the earnings of the Bank and the market value of its financial assets and liabilities is known as interest rate risk. Interest rate risk is our most significant market risk, and our ability to adapt to changes in interest rates is known as interest rate risk management. On a weekly basis, management reviews deposit flows, loan demand, cash levels, and changes in several market rates to assess all pricing strategies. The Bank's pricing strategy for first mortgage loan products includes setting interest rates based on secondary market prices and competitor pricing for our local and correspondent lending markets. Pricing for commercial loans is generally based on competitor pricing and the credit risk of the borrower with consideration given to the overall relationship of the borrower. Generally, deposit pricing is based upon a survey of competitors in the Bank's market areas, and the need to attract funding and retain maturing deposits. The majority of our loans are fixed-rate products with maturities up to 30 years, while the majority of our retail deposits have stated maturities or repricing dates of less than two years. The general objective of our interest rate risk management program is to determine and manage an appropriate level of interest rate risk while maximizing net interest income in a manner consistent with our policy to manage, to the extent practicable, the exposure of net interest income to changes in market interest rates. The Board of Directors and Asset and Liability Management Committee ("ALCO") regularly review the Bank's interest rate risk exposure by forecasting the impact of hypothetical, alternative interest rate environments on net interest income and the market value of portfolio equity ("MVPE") at various dates. The MVPE is defined as the net of the present value of cash flows from existing assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet instruments. The present values are determined based upon market conditions as of the date of the analysis, as well as in alternative interest rate environments providing potential changes in the MVPE under those alternative interest rate environments. Net interest income is projected in the same alternative interest rate environments with both a static balance sheet and management strategies considered. The MVPE and net interest income analyses are also conducted to estimate our sensitivity to rates for future time horizons based upon market conditions as of the date of the analysis. In addition to the interest rate environments presented below, management also reviews the impact of non-parallel rate shock scenarios on a quarterly basis. These scenarios consist of flattening and steepening the yield curve by changing short-term and long-term interest rates independent of each other, and simulating cash flows and determining valuations as a result of these hypothetical changes in interest rates to identify rate environments that pose the greatest risk to the Bank. This analysis helps management quantify the Bank's exposure to changes in the shape of the yield curve. Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk At June 30, 2020, the Bank's gap between the amount of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities projected to reprice within one year was $857.3 million, or 8.97% of total assets, compared to $508.6 million, or 5.43% of total assets, at March 31, 2020. The increase in the one-year gap amount was due primarily to a higher balance of cash and a lower balance of borrowings as of June 30, 2020 compared to March 31, 2020 The majority of interest-earning assets anticipated to reprice in the coming year are repayments and prepayments on one- to four-family loans and MBS, both of which include the option to prepay without a fee being paid by the contract holder. The amount of interest-bearing liabilities expected to reprice in a given period is not typically impacted significantly by changes in interest rates, but did increase this quarter, because the Bank's borrowings and certificate of deposit portfolios have contractual maturities and generally cannot be terminated early without a prepayment penalty. If interest rates were to increase 200 basis points, as of June 30, 2020, the Bank's one-year gap is projected to be $53.6 million, or 0.56% of total assets. The decrease in the gap compared to when there is no change in rates is due to lower anticipated net cash flows primarily due to lower repayments on mortgage-related assets in the higher rate environment. This compares to a one-year gap of $(312.8) million, or (3.34)% of total assets, if interest rates were to have increased 200 basis points as of March 31, 2020. During the current quarter, loan repayments totaled $586.4 million and cash flows from the securities portfolio totaled $200.3 million. The majority of these cash flows were reinvested into new loans and securities at current market interest rates. Total cash flows from term liabilities that matured and/or repriced into current market interest rates during the current quarter were $768.9 million, including 85 $200.0 million in FHLB borrowings. These offsetting cash flows allow the Bank to manage its interest rate risk and gap position more precisely than if the Bank did not have offsetting cash flows due to its mix of assets or maturity structure of liabilities. The Bank primarily uses long-term fixed-rate borrowings with no embedded options to lengthen the average life of the Bank's liabilities. The fixed-rate characteristics of these borrowings lock-in the cost until maturity and thus decrease the amount of liabilities repricing as interest rates move higher compared to funding with lower-cost short-term borrowings. These borrowings are laddered in order to prevent large amounts of liabilities repricing in any one period. The WAL of the Bank's term borrowings as of June 30, 2020 was 1.8 years. However, including the impact of interest rate swaps related to $640.0 million of adjustable-rate FHLB advances, the WAL of the Bank's term borrowings as of June 30, 2020 was 2.9 years. The interest rate swaps effectively convert the adjustable-rate borrowings into long-term, fixed-rate liabilities. The Bank may renew the upcoming advances to lower costing term advances based upon our assessment of deposit flows, lending opportunities and our liquidity position at that time. The Bank uses the securities portfolio to shorten the average life of the Bank's assets. Security purchases over the past few years have primarily been focused on callable agency debentures with maturities no longer than five years, shorter duration MBS, and adjustable-rate MBS. These securities have a shorter average life and provide a steady source of cash flow that can be reinvested in higher-yielding assets as interest rates rise. In addition to these wholesale strategies, the Bank has sought to increase non-maturity deposits. Non-maturity deposits are expected to reduce the risk of higher interest rates because their interest rates are not expected to increase significantly as market interest rates rise. Specifically, checking accounts and savings accounts have had minimal interest rate fluctuations throughout historical interest rate cycles, though no assurance can be given that this will be the case in future interest rate cycles. The balances and rates of these accounts have historically tended to remain very stable over time, giving them the characteristic of long-term liabilities. The Bank uses historical data pertaining to these accounts to estimate their future balances. Additionally, as we expand the commercial banking business, we expect to have the ability to obtain lower-costing commercial deposits, which could be used to reduce the cost of funds by replacing FHLB borrowings and wholesale deposits. With the significant decrease in interest rates during the current year, the Bank has decreased the rates on certificates of deposit and money market accounts on pace with competitors in its market areas. The Bank will continue to adjust rates as market conditions allow. 86 Gap Table. The following gap table summarizes the anticipated maturities or repricing periods of the Bank's interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities based on the information and assumptions set forth in the notes below. Cash flow projections for mortgage-related assets are calculated based in part on prepayment assumptions at current and projected interest rates. Prepayment projections are subjective in nature, involve uncertainties and assumptions and, therefore, cannot be determined with a high degree of accuracy. Although certain assets and liabilities may have similar maturities or periods to repricing, they may react differently to changes in market interest rates. Assumptions may not reflect how actual yields and costs respond to market interest rate changes. The interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities may fluctuate in advance of changes in market interest rates, while interest rates on other types of assets and liabilities may lag behind changes in market interest rates. Certain assets, such as adjustable-rate loans, have features that restrict changes in interest rates on a short-term basis and over the life of the asset. In the event of a change in interest rates, prepayment and early withdrawal levels would likely deviate significantly from those assumed in calculating the gap table below. A positive gap indicates more cash flows from assets are expected to reprice than cash flows from liabilities and would indicate, in a rising rate environment, that earnings should increase. A negative gap indicates more cash flows from liabilities are expected to reprice than cash flows from assets and would indicate, in a rising rate environment, that earnings should decrease. For additional information regarding the impact of changes in interest rates, see the following Change in Net Interest Income and Change in MVPE discussions and tables. More Than More Than Within One Year to Three Years Over One Year Three Years to Five Years Five Years Total Interest-earning assets: (Dollars in thousands) Loans receivable (1) $ 1,982,093 $ 2,121,554 $ 1,215,262 $ 2,079,489 $ 7,398,398 Securities (2) 592,334 309,028 143,989 140,874 1,186,225 Other interest-earning assets 381,730 — — — 381,730 Total interest-earning assets 2,956,157 2,430,582 1,359,251 2,220,363 8,966,353 Interest-bearing liabilities: Non-maturity deposits (3) 234,048 336,181 277,343 2,277,919 3,125,491 Certificates of deposit 1,461,834 1,231,382 339,478 466 3,033,160 Borrowings (4) 403,000 675,000 615,000 339,971 2,032,971 Total interest-bearing liabilities 2,098,882 2,242,563 1,231,821 2,618,356 8,191,622 Excess (deficiency) of interest-earning assets over interest-bearing liabilities $ 857,275 $ 188,019 $ 127,430 $ (397,993) $ 774,731 Cumulative excess of interest-earning assets over interest-bearing liabilities $ 857,275 $ 1,045,294 $ 1,172,724 $ 774,731 Cumulative excess of interest-earning assets over interest-bearing liabilities as a percent of total Bank assets at: June 30, 2020 8.97 % 10.94 % 12.27 % 8.11 % September 30, 2019 5.21 Cumulative one-year gap - interest rates +200 bps at: June 30, 2020 0.56 September 30, 2019 (3.88) (1) Adjustable-rate loans are included in the period in which the rate is next scheduled to adjust or in the period in which repayments are expected to occur, or prepayments are expected to be received, prior to their next rate adjustment, rather than in the period in which the loans are due. Fixed-rate loans are included in the periods in which they are scheduled to be repaid, based on scheduled amortization and prepayment assumptions. Balances are net of undisbursed amounts and deferred fees and exclude loans 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure. (2) MBS reflect projected prepayments at amortized cost. Investment securities are presented based on contractual maturities, term to call dates or pre-refunding dates as of June 30, 2020, at amortized cost. (3) Although the Bank's checking, savings, and money market accounts are subject to immediate withdrawal, management considers a substantial amount of these accounts to be core deposits having significantly longer effective maturities. The decay rates (the assumed rates at which the balances of existing accounts decline) used on these accounts is based on assumptions developed from our actual experiences with these accounts. If all of the Bank's checking, savings, and money market accounts had been assumed to be subject to repricing within one year, interest-bearing liabilities which were estimated to mature or reprice within one year would have exceeded interest-earning assets with comparable characteristics by $2.03 billion, for a cumulative one-year gap of (21.3)% of total assets. (4) Borrowings exclude deferred prepayment penalty costs. Included in this line item are $640.0 million of FHLB adjustable-rate advances with interest rate swaps. The repricing for these liabilities is projected to occur at the maturity date of each interest rate swap. 87 Change in Net Interest Income. For each date presented in the following table, the estimated change in the Bank's net interest income is based on the indicated instantaneous, parallel and permanent change in interest rates. The change in each interest rate environment represents the difference between estimated net interest income in the 0 basis point interest rate environment ("base case," assumes the forward market and product interest rates implied by the yield curve are realized) and the estimated net interest income in each alternative interest rate environment (assumes market and product interest rates have a parallel shift in rates across all maturities by the indicated change in rates). Projected cash flows for each scenario are based upon varying prepayment assumptions to model likely customer behavior changes as market rates change. For the current quarter, multiple yields along the yield curve were less than one percent, so the -100 basis points scenario was not applicable. Estimations of net interest income used in preparing the table below were based upon the assumptions that the total composition of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities does not change materially and that any repricing of assets or liabilities occurs at anticipated product and market rates for the alternative rate environments as of the dates presented. The estimation of net interest income does not include any projected gains or losses related to the sale of loans or securities, or income derived from non-interest income sources, but does include the use of different prepayment assumptions in the alternative interest rate environments. It is important to consider that estimated changes in net interest income are for a cumulative four-quarter period. These do not reflect the earnings expectations of management. Change Net Interest Income At (in Basis Points) June 30, 2020 September 30, 2019 in Interest Rates (1) Amount ($) Change ($) Change (%) Amount ($) Change ($) Change (%) (Dollars in thousands) 000 bp $ 193,341 $ — — % $ 193,329 $ — — % +100 bp 201,074 7,733 4.00 194,093 764 0.40 +200 bp 201,481 8,140 4.21 192,111 (1,218) (0.63) +300 bp 200,529 7,188 3.72 188,752 (4,577) (2.37) (1) Assumes an instantaneous, parallel, and permanent change in interest rates at all maturities. The net interest income projection was relatively unchanged in the base case scenario at June 30, 2020 compared to September 30, 2019. The one-year gap was higher at June 30, 2020 compared to September 30, 2019 due to lower interest rates at June 30, 2020, resulting in a higher amount of assets repricing. In the rising interest rate scenarios, interest income is higher at June 30, 2020 due a higher amount of assets repricing in these scenarios than at September 30, 2019. During the current fiscal year, the Bank also modified $350.0 million of term borrowings into new long-term borrowings with a lower cost. As a result, the cost on the Bank's term borrowings portfolio decreased 12 basis points and they are no longer projected to reprice in the 12-month horizon. The Bank was also able to lower the cost of its deposit portfolio by two basis points due to lower money market rates and a decrease in the interest rates offered on retail/business certificates of deposit. In addition, during the second quarter management changed the way that future certificate of deposit rates are forecasted in the Bank's interest rate risk model. This change was made to more closely align the forecasted rates with the current rates offered, thus lowering the projected interest expense. The net interest income projections increase from the base case in all rising interest rate scenarios at June 30, 2020. The net interest income projection was more adversely impacted in the rising interest rate scenarios at September 30, 2019 compared to June 30, 2020, due primarily to higher interest rates at September 30, 2019. In addition, the modification of $350.0 million of borrowings during the current fiscal year lengthened the Bank's liabilities, thus reducing the risk to higher interest rates. The positive impact of rising interest rates diminished as interest rates increase until turning negative in the +200 basis point and +300 basis point scenarios at September 30, 2019. Higher interest rates decreased the projected cash flows from the Bank's mortgage-related assets, thus increasing the negative impact of rising interest rates. 88 Change in MVPE. The following table sets forth the estimated change in the MVPE for each date presented based on the indicated instantaneous, parallel, and permanent change in interest rates. The change in each interest rate environment represents the difference between the MVPE in the base case (assumes the forward market interest rates implied by the yield curve are realized) and the MVPE in each alternative interest rate environment (assumes market interest rates have a parallel shift in rates). Projected cash flows for each scenario are based upon varying prepayment assumptions to model likely customer behavior as market rates change. For the current quarter, multiple yields along the yield curve were less than one percent, so the -100 basis points scenario was not applicable. The estimations of the MVPE used in preparing the table below were based upon the assumptions that the total composition of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities does not change, that any repricing of assets or liabilities occurs at current product or market rates for the alternative rate environments as of the dates presented, and that different prepayment rates were used in each alternative interest rate environment. The estimated MVPE results from the valuation of cash flows from financial assets and liabilities over the anticipated lives of each for each interest rate environment. The table below presents the effects of the changes in interest rates on our assets and liabilities as they mature, repay, or reprice, as shown by the change in the MVPE for alternative interest rates. Change Market Value of Portfolio Equity At (in Basis Points) June 30, 2020 September 30, 2019 in Interest Rates (1) Amount ($) Change ($) Change (%) Amount ($) Change ($) Change (%) (Dollars in thousands) 000 bp $ 1,054,207 $ — — % $ 1,283,429 $ — — % +100 bp 1,157,315 103,108 9.78 1,286,446 3,017 0.24 +200 bp 1,093,330 39,123 3.71 1,162,151 (121,278) (9.45) +300 bp 968,281 (85,926) (8.15) 992,060 (291,369) (22.70) (1) Assumes an instantaneous, parallel, and permanent change in interest rates at all maturities. The percentage change in the Bank's MVPE at June 30, 2020 was positive in the +100 and +200 basis point scenarios and negative in the +300 basis point scenario. At September 30, 2019 the percentage change in the Bank's MVPE was negative in the +200 and +300 basis point scenarios. This change was due primarily to lower interest rates at June 30, 2020 and the modification of $350.0 million of borrowings during the current fiscal year into long-term liabilities which reduced the Bank's risk to higher interest rates. As interest rates increase, borrowers have less economic incentive to refinance their mortgages and agency debt issuers have less economic incentive or opportunity to exercise their call options in order to issue new debt at lower interest rates, resulting in lower projected cash flows on these assets. As interest rates increase in the rising rate scenarios, repayments on mortgage-related assets are more likely to decrease and only be realized through significant changes in borrowers' lives such as divorce, death, job-related relocations, or other events as there is less economic incentive for borrowers to prepay their debt, resulting in an increase in the average life of mortgage-related assets. Similarly, call projections for the Bank's callable agency debentures decrease as interest rates rise, which results in cash flows related to these assets moving closer to the contractual maturity dates. The higher expected average lives of these assets, relative to the assumptions in the base case interest rate environment, increases the sensitivity of their market value to changes in interest rates. In the +100 and +200 basis point scenarios, the market value of liabilities decrease at a faster pace than the market value of assets due to having a longer duration in these scenarios. The longer duration makes the market value of these liabilities more sensitive to changes in interest rates. In the +300 basis point scenario, prepayment speeds on mortgage-related assets and call projections on investment securities decrease to a point where the durations of assets are longer, and thus more sensitive to rising interest rates. This results in a larger decrease in the market value of assets than liabilities in this scenario. 89 The following table presents the weighted average yields/rates and WALs (in years), after applying prepayment, call assumptions, and decay rates for our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities as of June 30, 2020. Yields presented for interest-earning assets include the amortization of fees, costs, premiums and discounts, which are considered adjustments to the yield. The interest rate presented for term borrowings is the effective rate, which includes the impact of interest rate swaps and the amortization of deferred prepayment penalties resulting from FHLB advances previously prepaid. The WAL presented for term borrowings includes the effect of interest rate swaps. The maturity and repricing terms presented for one- to four-family loans represent the contractual terms of the loan. Amount Yield/Rate WAL % of Category % of Total (Dollars in thousands) Investment securities $ 237,467 1.23 % 0.6 19.4 % 2.6 % MBS - fixed 741,364 2.22 3.2 60.8 8.1 MBS - adjustable 241,223 2.73 2.5 19.8 2.6 Total securities 1,220,054 2.12 2.5 100.0 % 13.3 Loans receivable: Fixed-rate one- to four-family: <= 15 years 1,113,247 3.04 3.5 15.0 % 12.2 > 15 years 4,413,013 3.77 5.1 59.6 48.4 Fixed-rate commercial 542,857 4.18 3.6 7.3 5.9 All other fixed-rate loans 47,426 4.70 3.5 0.7 0.5 Total fixed-rate loans 6,116,543 3.68 4.7 82.6 67.0 Adjustable-rate one- to four-family: <= 36 months 198,477 2.47 2.6 2.7 2.2 > 36 months 716,614 3.20 2.2 9.7 7.9 Adjustable-rate commercial 269,432 4.81 6.1 3.6 3.0 All other adjustable-rate loans 106,376 4.25 1.7 1.4 1.2 Total adjustable-rate loans 1,290,899 3.51 3.0 17.4 14.3 Total loans receivable 7,407,442 3.65 4.4 100.0 % 81.3 FHLB stock 102,782 4.68 1.9 1.1 Cash and cash equivalents 396,219 0.10 — 4.3 Total interest-earning assets $ 9,126,497 3.30 3.9 100.0 % Non-maturity deposits $ 3,036,524 0.21 15.0 50.0 % 37.7 % Retail/business certificates of deposit 2,744,661 1.97 1.5 45.2 34.0 Public unit certificates of deposit 288,499 1.09 0.4 4.8 3.6 Total deposits 6,069,684 1.05 8.2 100.0 % 75.3 Term borrowings 1,993,000 2.29 2.9 24.7 Total interest-bearing liabilities $ 8,062,684 1.35 6.9 100.0 %