Carter Bankshares, Inc. 10-Q

ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK Market Risk Market risk is defined as the degree to which changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, commodity prices, or equity prices can adversely affect a financial institution’s earnings or capital. For financial institutions, market risk primarily reflects exposures to changes in interest rates. Interest rate fluctuations affect earnings by changing net interest income and other interest-sensitive income and expense levels. Interest rate changes affect capital by changing the net present value of a financial institution’s future cash flows, and the cash flows themselves, as rates change. Accepting this risk is a normal part of banking and can be an important source of profitability and enhancement of shareholder value. However, excessive interest rate risk can threaten a financial institution’s earnings, capital, liquidity and solvency. Our sensitivity to changes in interest rate movements is continually monitored by the ALCO. The ALCO utilizes an asset liability model (“ALM”) to monitor and manage market risk through net interest income simulation for various rate shock scenarios and economic value of equity (“EVE”), simulation for various rate shock scenarios. The rate shock scenarios used in the ALM span over multiple time horizons and yield curve shapes and include parallel and non-parallel shifts to ensure the ALCO can mitigate future earnings and market value fluctuations due to changes in market interest rates. Within the context of the ALM, net interest income rate shock simulations explicitly measure the exposure to earnings from changes in market rates of interest over a defined time horizon. These robust simulations include assumptions of how the balance sheet will react in different rate environments including loan pre-payment speeds, average life of non-maturing deposits, and how sensitive each interest-earning asset and interest-bearing liability is to changes in market rates (betas). Under simulation analysis, our current financial position is combined with assumptions regarding future business to calculate net interest income under various hypothetical rate scenarios. Reviewing these various measures provides us with a more comprehensive view of our interest rate risk profile. Net interest income rate shock simulation results are compared to a base case to provide an estimate of the impact that market rate changes may have on 12 months and 24 months of pretax net interest income. The base case and rate shock analyses are performed on a static and growth balance sheet. A static balance sheet is a no growth balance sheet in which all maturing and/or repricing cash flows are reinvested in the same product at the existing product spread. Rate shock analyses assume an immediate parallel shift in market interest rates and also include management assumptions regarding the impact of interest rate changes on non-maturity deposit products (noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing demand, money market and savings) and changes in the prepayment behavior of loans and securities with optionality. Our policy guidelines limit the change in pretax net interest income over a 12-month horizon using rate shocks of +/- 100, 200, 300 and 400 basis points. We have temporarily suspended the -100, -200, -300 and -400 basis point rate shock analyses. Due to the low interest rate environment, we believe the impact to net interest income when evaluating the -100, -200, -300 and -400 basis point rate shock scenarios does not provide meaningful insight into our interest rate risk position. In order to monitor interest rate risk beyond the 24-month time horizon of rate shocks, we also perform EVE analyses. EVE represents the present value of all asset cash flows minus the present value of all liability cash flows. EVE rate change results are compared to a base case to determine the impact that market rate changes may have on our EVE. As with rate shock analysis, EVE analyses incorporate management assumptions regarding prepayment behavior of fixed rate loans and securities with optionality and the behavior and value of non-maturity deposit products. Our policy guidelines limit the change in EVE given changes in rates of +/- 100, 200, 300 and 400 basis points. We have also temporarily suspended the EVE -100, -200, -300 and -400 basis point scenarios in 2020 and 2021 due to the low interest rate environment. 66 Table of Contents CARTER BANKSHARES, INC. ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (continued) The following tables reflect the net interest income rate shock analyses and EVE analyses results for the periods presented utilizing a forecasted static balance sheet over the next twelve months. All percentage changes presented are within prescribed ranges set by management. June 30, 2021 December 31, 2020 Change in Interest Rate ( basis points ) % Change in Pretax Net Interest Income % Change in Economic Value of Equity % Change in Pretax Net Interest Income % Change in Economic Value of Equity 400 38.8 % 23.5 % 39.6% 20.1% 300 29.9 % 19.4 % 30.7% 17.5% 200 20.7 % 14.5 % 21.1% 13.8% 100 10.4 % 8.2 % 10.7% 8.1% The results from the net interest income rate shock analysis are consistent with having an asset sensitive balance sheet, when adjusted for repricing correlations (betas). The above table indicates that in a rising interest rate environment, the Company is positioned to have increased pretax net interest income for the same asset base due to the balance sheet composition, related maturity structures and repricing correlations to market interest rates for assets and liabilities. Conversely, in a declining interest rate environment we are positioned to have decreased pretax net interest income for the same reasons discussed above. In addition to rate shocks and EVE analyses, sensitivity analyses are performed to help us identify which model assumptions are critical and cause the greatest impact on pretax net interest income. Sensitivity analyses include changing prepayment behavior of loans and securities with optionality, repricing correlations, and the impact of interest rate changes on non-maturity deposit products (decay rates).