Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
ITEM 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
The primary objective of the following information is to provide forward- looking quantitative and qualitative information about our potential exposure to market risk. The term “market risk” refers to the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in natural gas, NGLs and oil prices, as well as interest rates. These disclosures are not meant to be precise indicators of expected future losses, but rather indicators of reasonably possible losses. This forward-looking information provides indicators of how we view and manage our ongoing market risk exposures.
Commodity Hedging Activities
Our primary market risk exposure is in the price we receive for our natural gas, NGLs and oil production. Pricing is primarily driven by spot regional market prices applicable to our U.S. natural gas production and the prevailing worldwide price for oil. Pricing for natural gas, NGLs and oil has, historically, been volatile and unpredictable, and we expect this volatility to continue in the future. The prices we receive for our production depend on many factors outside of our control, including volatility in the differences between commodity prices at sales points and the applicable index price.
To mitigate some of the potential negative impact on our cash flows caused by changes in commodity prices, we enter into financial derivative instruments for a portion of our natural gas, NGLs and oil production when management believes that favorable future prices can be secured.
Our financial hedging activities are intended to support natural gas, NGLs and oil prices at targeted levels and to manage our exposure to natural gas, NGLs and oil price fluctuations. These contracts may include commodity price swaps whereby we will receive a fixed price and pay a variable market price to the contract counterparty, collars that set a floor and ceiling price for the hedged production, basis differential swaps, call options or embedded put options. These contracts are financial instruments and do not require or allow for physical delivery of the hedged commodity. As of December 31, 2022, our commodity derivatives included fixed price swaps, swaptions, basis differential swaps, call options and embedded put options at index-based pricing for a portion of our production. See Note 11—Derivative Instruments to our consolidated financial statements for more information.
Under the Credit Facility, we are permitted to hedge up to 75% of our projected production for the next 60 months. We may enter into hedge contracts with a term greater than 60 months, and for no longer than 72 months, for up to 65% of our estimated production. Based on our production and our fixed price swap contracts, call option and embedded put option that settled during the year ended December 31, 2022, our revenues would have decreased by approximately $81 million for each $0.10 decrease per MMBtu in natural gas prices and $1.00 decrease per Bbl in oil and NGLs prices, excluding the effects of changes in the fair value of our derivative positions which remain open as of December 31, 2022.
All derivative instruments, other than those that meet the normal purchase and normal sale scope exception or other derivative scope exceptions, are recorded at fair market value in accordance with GAAP and are included in our consolidated balance sheets as assets or liabilities. The fair values of our derivative instruments are adjusted for non- performance risk. Because we do not designate these derivatives as accounting hedges, they do not receive hedge accounting treatment; therefore, all mark-to- market gains or losses, as well as cash receipts or payments on settled derivative instruments, are recognized in our statements of operations. We present total gains or losses on commodity derivatives (for both settled derivatives and derivative positions which remain open) within operating revenues as “Commodity derivative fair value gains (losses).”
Mark-to- market adjustments of derivative instruments cause earnings volatility but have no cash flow impact relative to changes in market prices until the derivative contracts are settled or monetized prior to settlement. We expect continued volatility in the fair value of our derivative instruments. Our cash flows are impacted when the associated derivative contracts are settled or monetized by making or receiving payments to or from the counterparty. As of December 31, 2021 and 2022, the estimated fair value of our commodity derivative instruments was a net liability of $727 million, and $431 million, respectively, comprised of current and noncurrent assets and current liabilities.
By removing price volatility from a portion of our production, we have mitigated, but not eliminated, the potential negative effects of changing prices on our operating cash flows for those periods. While mitigating the negative effects of falling commodity
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prices, these derivative contracts also limited the benefits we received from increased commodity prices above the fixed hedge prices. Due to our improved liquidity and leverage position as compared to past levels, the percentage of our expected production that we hedge has decreased. For the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2022, approximately 70% and 33%, respectively, of our production was hedged through fixed price commodity swaps. Assuming our 2023 production is the same as our production in 2022, approximately 1% of our production for 2023 will be hedged through fixed price commodity swaps.
Counterparty and Customer Credit Risk
Our principal exposures to credit risk are through receivables resulting from the following: the sale of our natural gas, NGLs and oil production ($671 million as of December 31, 2022), which we market to energy companies, end users and refineries, and commodity derivative contracts ($12 million as of December 31, 2022).
We are subject to credit risk due to the concentration of our receivables from several significant customers for sales of natural gas, NGLs and oil. We generally do not require our customers to post collateral. The inability or failure of our significant customers to meet their obligations to us, or their insolvency or liquidation, may adversely affect our financial results.
In addition, by using derivative instruments that are not traded on an exchange to hedge exposures to changes in commodity prices, we expose ourselves to the credit risk of our counterparties. Credit risk is the potential failure of a counterparty to perform under the terms of a derivative contract. When the fair value of a derivative contract is positive, the counterparty is expected to owe us, which creates credit risk. To minimize the credit risk in derivative instruments, it is our policy to enter into derivative contracts only with counterparties that are creditworthy financial institutions that management deems to be competent and competitive market makers. The creditworthiness of our counterparties is subject to periodic review. We have commodity hedges in place with four different counterparties, two of which are lenders under the Credit Facility. As of December 31, 2022, we did not have any derivative assets with bank counterparties under our Credit Facility. The estimated fair value of our commodity derivative assets has been risk adjusted using a discount rate based upon the counterparties’ respective published credit default swap rates (if available, or if not available, a discount rate based on the applicable Reuters bond rating) as of December 31, 2022. We believe that all of our counterparties currently are acceptable credit risks. Other than as provided by the Credit Facility, we are not required to provide credit support or collateral to any of our counterparties under our derivative contracts, nor are they required to provide credit support to us. As of December 31, 2022, we did not have any past-due receivables from, or payables to, any of the counterparties to our derivative contracts.
Interest Rate Risks
Our primary exposure to interest rate risk results from outstanding borrowings under the Credit Facility, which has a floating interest rate. The average annualized interest rate incurred on the Credit Facility for borrowings during the year ended December 31, 2022 was approximately 3.9%. We estimate that a 1.0% increase in the applicable average interest rates for the year ended December 31, 2022 would have resulted in an estimated $2 million increase in interest expense.