Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors
You should carefully consider the following risks. These risks could materially affect our business, results of operations or financial condition, cause the trading price of our common stock to decline materially or cause our actual results to differ materially from those expected or those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by us or on our behalf. These risks are not exclusive, and additional risks to which we are subject include, but are not limited to, the factors mentioned under “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” and the risks of our businesses described elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021.
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Summary of Risk Factors
Risks Relating to Our Business
• The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has and could continue to adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.
• When we are notified that an insured loan is in default, we establish loss reserves based on management’s estimate of claim rates and claim sizes, which are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions about certain estimation parameters that may be volatile. As a result, the actual claim payments we make may materially differ from the amount of our corresponding loss reserves.
• If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• Competition within the mortgage insurance industry could result in the loss of market share, loss of customers, lower premiums, wider credit guidelines and other changes that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• Changes to the charters or practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• The amount of mortgage insurance we write could decline significantly if alternatives to private mortgage insurance are used or lower coverage levels of mortgage insurance are selected.
• Changes in the composition of our business or undue concentration by customer or geographic region may adversely affect us by increasing our exposure to loss of business or adverse performance of a small segment of our portfolio.
• Our risk management programs may not be effective in identifying or adequate in controlling or mitigating the risks we face.
• The extent of the benefits we realize from loss mitigation actions or programs in the future may be limited compared to years past.
• Interest rates and changes in rates could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• We may be unable to maintain or increase the capital needed in our business in a timely manner, on anticipated terms or at all, including through improved business performance, CRT transactions, securities offerings or otherwise, in each case as and when required.
• CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses.
• Adverse rating agency actions have resulted in a loss of business and adversely affected our business, results of operations and financial condition and future adverse rating agency actions could have a further and more significant adverse impact on us.
• We compete with government-owned enterprises and GSEs, and this may put us at a competitive disadvantage on pricing and other terms and conditions.
• Our valuation of fixed maturity, equity and trading securities uses methodologies, estimations and assumptions that are subject to change and differing interpretations that could result in changes to investment valuations that may materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• If servicers fail to adhere to appropriate servicing standards or experience disruptions to their businesses, our losses could increase.
• Our delegated underwriting program may subject our mortgage insurance business to unanticipated claims.
• Potential liabilities in connection with our contract underwriting services could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• The premiums we agree to charge for our mortgage insurance coverage may not adequately compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the coverage we provide.
• A decrease in the volume of Low-Down Payment Loan originations or an increase in the volume of mortgage insurance cancellations could result in a decline in our revenue.
• We collect, process, store, share, disclose and use consumer information and other data, and an actual or perceived failure to protect such information and data or respect users’ privacy could damage our reputation and brand and adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• The requirements of being a public company may strain our resources and distract our management, which could make it difficult to manage our business and cause us to incur incremental costs.
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Risks Relating to Regulatory Matters
• Our business is extensively regulated and changes in regulation may reduce our profitability and limit our growth.
• An adverse change in our regulatory requirements could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• Inability to maintain sufficient regulatory capital could result in restrictions or prohibitions on our doing business or impact our financial strength ratings which could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• Changes in regulations that adversely affect the mortgage insurance markets in which we operate could affect our operations significantly and could reduce the demand for mortgage insurance.
Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with our Parent
• Our Parent is able to exert significant influence over us and our corporate decisions.
• The terms of our arrangements with our Parent may be more favorable than we will be able to obtain from an unaffiliated third party.
• We could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.
Risks Relating to Taxation
• Changes in tax laws could have a material adverse effect on our business, cash flows, results of operations or financial condition.
• We are jointly and severally liable for any U.S. federal income taxes owed by the Genworth Consolidated Group for taxable periods in which we are a member of the group.
• Our Parent’s continued ownership of at least 80% of our common stock may limit our ability to raise additional capital by issuing common stock to third parties.
• If we leave the Genworth Consolidated Group, we may be required to make payments under the Tax Allocation Agreement and may be required to pay more income tax in the future.
General Risk Factors
• We are a holding company, and our only material assets are our equity interests in our subsidiaries. As a consequence, we depend on the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends and make other payments and distributions to us in order to meet our obligations.
• Our business could be adversely impacted from deficiencies in our disclosure controls and procedures or internal control over financial reporting.
• We may suffer losses in connection with future litigation and regulatory proceedings or other actions.
• Changes in accounting and reporting standards issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or other standard-setting bodies and insurance regulators could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• If we are unable to on-board, retain, attract and motivate qualified employees or senior management, our business, results of operations and financial condition may be adversely impacted.
• Our computer systems may fail or be compromised, and unanticipated problems could materially adversely impact our disaster recovery systems and business continuity plans, which could damage our reputation, impair our ability to conduct business effectively and materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial conditions.
• The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or public health emergencies, including pandemics and disasters caused or exacerbated by climate change, could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
• Provisions of state corporate and state insurance laws, of PMIERs and of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and our amended and restated bylaws may prevent or delay an acquisition of us, which could decrease the trading price of our common stock.
• We are a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq rules and we qualify for exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements.
• Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation contains exclusive forum provisions, which could limit our stockholders’ ability to choose the judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors, officers or employees.
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Risks Relating to Our Business
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has and could continue to adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to negatively impact economic and commercial activity and financial markets, both globally and within the United States. Stay-at-home orders, travel restrictions and closure of non-essential businesses and similar orders imposed across the United States to restrict the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in significant business and operational disruptions, including business closures, supply chain disruptions and mass layoffs and furloughs. Although most jurisdictions have subsequently lifted stay-at-home orders and moved to phased opening of businesses, capacity restrictions and health and safety recommendations that encourage continued physical distancing and working remotely have limited the ability of some businesses to return to pre-pandemic levels of activity and employment, and the potential for resurgence of cases of the disease (including as a result of the emergence of new variants) could lead to the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been a number of governmental and GSE efforts to implement programs designed to assist individuals and businesses impacted by the virus. On March 27, 2020, the CARES Act was signed into law. The CARES Act provides financial assistance for businesses and individuals and targeted regulatory relief for financial institutions. Among many other things, for up to 120 days after the termination date of the national emergency concerning COVID-19 declared by the Trump Administration on March 13, 2020 under the National Emergencies Act, the CARES Act required mortgage servicers to provide up to 180 days of forbearance for borrowers with a federally backed mortgage loan who asserted they had experienced a financial hardship related to COVID-19. The forbearance could be extended for an additional 180 days up to a year in total or shortened at the request of the borrower. In addition, on February 25, 2021, the FHFA announced that borrowers with a mortgage backed by the GSEs who are in an active COVID-19 forbearance plan as of February 28, 2021 may request up to two additional forbearance extensions for a maximum of 18 months of total forbearance relief. In addition, the CARES Act provides that furnishers of credit reporting information, including servicers, should continue to report a loan as current to credit reporting agencies if the loan is subject to a payment accommodation, such as forbearance, so long as the borrower abides by the terms of the accommodation. Many servicers have updated and improved their reporting to private mortgage insurers for when a loan is covered by forbearance.
The foreclosure moratorium for mortgages that are purchased by the GSEs expired on July 31, 2021. However, on June 28, 2021 the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“CFPB”) issued a final rule to amend Regulation X of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act effective August 31, 2021 to assist mortgage borrowers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The final rule established temporary procedural changes that require a loss mitigation review prior to a servicer’s first notice or foreclosure filing on certain mortgages. On June 29, 2021, the FHFA announced that servicers were immediately prohibited from making a first notice or foreclosure filing for mortgages backed by the GSEs that would be prohibited by the CFPB Regulation X Final Rule before it took effect on August 31, 2021. These announcements generally prohibited servicers from starting foreclosures on mortgages purchased by the GSEs until after December 31, 2021.
Any delays in foreclosure, including foreclosure moratoriums imposed by state and local governments and the GSEs due to COVID-19, could cause our losses to increase as expenses accrue for longer periods or if the value of foreclosed homes decline during such foreclosure delays. If we experience an increase in claim severity resulting in claim amounts that are higher than expected, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected. In addition, the expiration or discontinuation of any governmental or GSE forbearance or foreclosure relief program could further exacerbate the financial condition of borrowers on loans we insure or economic conditions generally, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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We have taken steps to mitigate some of the risks associated with COVID-19. However, we are currently unable to estimate the magnitude of the impact that the pandemic will ultimately have on our business, results of operations and financial condition. While the impact of the developing COVID-19 pandemic is difficult to predict, the related outcomes and impact on our business will depend on the spread and duration of the pandemic, including the duration of any resurgences of COVID-19 and its variants, the effectiveness of vaccines, the willingness of people to be vaccinated, regulatory and government actions to support housing and the economy, social distancing, the need to reimpose restrictions and other spread mitigating actions and the shape of the economic recovery. We are continuing to monitor COVID-19 developments, regulatory and government actions including the impact of the CARES Act and programs announced by the GSEs, and the potential financial impacts on our business. To date, we have aligned our business with the temporary origination and servicing guidelines announced by the GSEs and activated our business continuity program by transitioning to a work-from-home virtual workforce. We plan to initiate our return to the office in March 2022 and intend to operate under a hybrid office and work-from-home model for the near term.
We expect that COVID-19 and measures taken to reduce its spread will continue to pervasively impact our business, subjecting us to the following risks:
• The pandemic has resulted in a material increase in new defaults as borrowers fail to make timely payments on their mortgages, primarily as a result of unemployment and mortgage forbearance programs that allow borrowers to defer mortgage payments. While new defaults are currently lower than at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of new variants could result in an increase of new defaults. This may impact our business’ ability to remain compliant with the PMIERs’ financial requirements.
• The pandemic could place a significant strain on the operations and financial condition of mortgage servicers, which could disrupt the servicing or servicing transfers of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies or result in servicers failing to timely remit premiums and appropriately report the status of loans, including whether the loans are subject to a COVID-19-related forbearance program.
• We could receive fewer mortgage insurance premiums as a result of loans going into default or be unable to cancel insurance coverage for nonpayment of premiums due to state moratoriums that could temporarily suspend such actions by insurers.
• Decreases in overall policy persistency and an increased level of mortgage loan refinancings, driven by historically low mortgage interest rates as a result of U.S. monetary policy following COVID-19 and other reasons, could reduce the profitability of our insurance portfolio.
• Stimulative monetary policy, including Federal Reserve bond purchases and reductions in the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds rate to 0.0% - 0.25% beginning March 2020, have reduced our net interest income and margins, and the potential for future interest rate increases due to inflation resulting from fiscal and monetary stimulus provided by the federal government as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic could impact net investment income.
• As a result of COVID-19-related relief programs, many loans in our delinquency inventory have entered forbearance plans and we anticipate that defaults related to the pandemic, if not cured or otherwise substantially mitigated, could remain in our defaulted loan inventory for a protracted period of time, potentially resulting in an increased number of claims and higher levels of claim severity for loans that ultimately result in a claim. Historically, forbearance plans such as those put in place as a result of COVID-19 have reduced the incidence of our losses on affected loans. However, given the uncertainty around the long-term impact of COVID-19, it is difficult to predict whether a loan’s delinquency will result in a cure or claim when its forbearance plan ends. The severity of losses associated with loans whose delinquencies do not cure will depend on the duration of the forbearance and economic conditions at that time and our current estimates about
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the number of delinquencies for which we will receive claims, and the amount, or severity, of each claim, could increase or decrease. For new loans originated and insured on or after October 1, 2014, our mortgage insurance policies limit the number of months of unpaid interest and associated expenses that are included in the mortgage insurance claim amount to a maximum of 36 months.
• While vaccines for COVID-19 have been developed, approved and distributed, there is no guarantee that any such vaccine will be entirely effective, work as expected, be effective on new variants of COVID-19, or will be accepted on a significant scale across all geographies.
• The extended duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, the resurgence of cases of the disease (including as a result of the emergence of new COVID-19 variants) and the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread could lead to pressure on home prices in addition to elevated unemployment, which could cause additional new delinquencies, as well as potentially result in increased claims and higher levels of claim severity.
• The GSEs’ business practices and policies have changed in response to COVID-19, with a shift in their primary objectives to supporting borrowers impacted by the pandemic and protecting the ongoing functioning of the United States housing finance system. As the situation continues to evolve, the actions of the FHFA and the GSEs in response to COVID-19 are likely to continue to significantly impact the United States housing finance system. These actions may include additional PMIERs capital requirements or other material restrictions on us. Because private mortgage insurance is an important component of this system, these actions (as well as other governmental actions in response to the pandemic) have had, and may continue to have, an adverse impact on our mortgage insurance operations and performance.
• The number of home purchases or mortgage refinancings may continue to be materially affected by the impact of the pandemic on general economic conditions, including the unemployment rate and the availability of credit for mortgage loans. In addition, public and private sector initiatives to reduce the transmission of COVID-19, such as the imposition of restrictions on business activities, may continue to affect the number of new mortgages available for us to insure as real estate markets confront challenges in the mortgage origination and home sale process created by social distancing, widespread adoption of remote work policies and other measures. Any significant adverse impact to our business, results of operations and financial condition could lead to lower credit ratings and impaired capital, both of which could hinder our businesses from offering their products, preclude them from returning capital to our Parent and our holding company, and thereby harm our liquidity.
• The models, assumptions and estimates we use to establish loss reserves and claim rates may not be accurate, especially in the event of an extended economic downturn or a period of extreme market volatility and uncertainty such as we are currently experiencing due to COVID-19. For example, cures for loan defaults resulting from the pandemic are emerging more slowly than we had previously experienced in the context of other FEMA-declared emergencies due to extended forbearance programs. While we continue to expect forbearance programs to benefit ultimate cure rates, this emergence may result in ultimate cure rates below our expectations. Consequently, the ultimate claim rate may be higher than our expectations.
• Adverse impacts on capital, credit and reinsurance market conditions, which may limit our ability to issue MILNs or purchase reinsurance on favorable terms or at all, or access traditional financing methods. Such adverse impacts may increase our cost of capital and affect our ability to meet liquidity needs.
• Increases in our internal controls and procedures needed to manage increased risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
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• The rating agencies continually review the financial strength ratings assigned to us, our primary operating subsidiary, GMICO and our Parent, and the ratings are subject to change. COVID-19 and its impact on our financial condition and results of operations could cause one or more of the rating agencies to downgrade the ratings assigned to one or more of us, GMICO, and our Parent.
Ultimately, the impact of COVID-19 on our business will depend on, among other things: the extent and duration of the pandemic, the severity of the disease and the number of people infected with the virus and effectiveness of vaccines; the willingness of people to be vaccinated; the resurgence of cases of the disease (including as a result of the emergence of new variants) and the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread; the effects on the economy of the pandemic and of the measures taken by governmental authorities and other third parties restricting day-to-day life; governmental and private party programs implemented to assist new and existing borrowers, including programs and policies instituted by the GSEs to assist borrowers experiencing a COVID-19- related hardship such as forbearance plans and suspensions of foreclosure and evictions; and the impact on the mortgage origination market. The level of disruption, the economic downturn, the potential global recession and the far-reaching effects of COVID-19 could negatively affect our investment portfolio and cause harm to our business if they persist for long periods of time. COVID-19 could also disrupt medical and financial services and has resulted in us practicing social distancing with our employees through office closures, all of which could disrupt our normal business operations. Due to the unprecedented and rapidly changing social and economic impacts associated with COVID-19 on the United States and global economies generally, and in particular on the United States housing, real estate and housing finance markets, there is significant uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact on our business, business prospects, results of operations and financial condition and our estimates or predictions regarding such impact may be materially wrong.
If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In furtherance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s respective charter requirements, each GSE adopted PMIERs effective December 31, 2015. On September 27, 2018, the GSEs issued a revised version of the PMIERs, which became effective March 31, 2019. During 2020, the GSEs issued guidance amending PMIERs further, in light of COVID-19 (as amended, the “PMIERs Amendment”). The December 4, 2020 version of the PMIERS Amendment extended the application of reduced PMIERs capital factors to each non-performing loan that had an initial missed monthly payment occurring on or after March 1, 2020 and prior to April 1, 2021 and capital preservation period from March 31, 2021 to June 30, 2021. On June 30, 2021, the GSEs issued a revised and restated version of the PMIERs Amendment that replaced the version issued on December 4, 2020. The June 30, 2021 version allows loans that enter a forbearance plan due to a COVID-19 hardship on or after April 1, 2021 to remain eligible for extended application of the reduced PMIERs capital factor for as long as the loan remains in forbearance. The June 30, 2021 version also extended the capital preservation period through December 31, 2021 with certain exceptions, as described below.
The PMIERs include financial requirements for mortgage insurers under which a mortgage insurer’s “Available Assets” (generally only the most liquid assets of an insurer) must meet or exceed “Minimum Required Assets” (which are based on an insurer’s RIF and are calculated from tables of factors with several risk dimensions and are subject to a floor amount) and otherwise generally establish when a mortgage insurer is qualified to issue coverage that will be acceptable to the respective GSE for acquisition of high LTV mortgages. The GSEs may amend or waive PMIERs at their discretion, impose additional conditions or restrictions on us and also have broad discretion to interpret PMIERs, which could impact the calculation of our “Available Assets” and/or “Minimum Required Assets.” The amount of capital that GMICO may be required in the future to maintain the “Minimum Required Assets” as defined in PMIERs, and operate our business is dependent upon, among other things: (i) the way PMIERs are applied and interpreted by the GSEs and the FHFA as and after they are implemented; (ii) the future performance of the housing market, including as a result of COVID-19 and the length and speed of
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recovery; (iii) our generation of earnings in our business, “Available Assets” and “Minimum Required Assets,” reducing RIF and reducing delinquencies as anticipated, and writing anticipated amounts and types of new mortgage insurance business; and (iv) our overall financial performance, capital and liquidity levels. Depending on our actual experience, the amount of capital required under PMIERs may be higher than currently anticipated. In the absence of a premium increase for new business, if we hold more capital relative to insured loans, our returns will be lower. We may be unable to increase premium rates for various reasons, principally due to competition. Our inability, on the other hand, to increase the capital as required in the anticipated timeframes and on the anticipated terms, and to realize the anticipated benefits, could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition. More particularly, our ability to continue to meet the PMIERs financial requirements and maintain a prudent amount of capital in excess of those requirements, given the dynamic nature of asset valuations and requirement changes over time, is dependent upon, among other things: (i) our ability to complete CRT transactions on our anticipated terms and timetable, which, as applicable, are subject to market conditions, third-party approvals and other actions (including approval by the GSEs), and other factors that are outside of our control and (ii) our ability to contribute holding company cash or other sources of capital to satisfy the portion of the financial requirements that are not satisfied through these transactions. See “—CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses.” The GSEs may amend or waive PMIERs at their discretion, and also have broad discretion to interpret PMIERs, which could impact the calculation of our “Available Assets” and/or “Minimum Required Assets.”
The PMIERs Amendment implemented both permanent and temporary revisions to PMIERs. For loans that became non-performing due to a COVID-19 hardship, PMIERs was temporarily amended with respect to each non-performing loan that (i) had an initial missed monthly payment occurring on or after March 1, 2020 and prior to April 1, 2021 or (ii) is subject to a forbearance plan granted in response to a financial hardship related to COVID-19, the terms of which are materially consistent with terms of forbearance plans offered by the GSEs. The risk-based required asset amount factor for the non-performing loan will be the greater of (a) the applicable risk-based required asset amount factor for a performing loan were it not delinquent, and (b) the product of a 0.30 multiplier and the applicable risk-based required asset amount factor for a non-performing loan. In the case of (i) above, absent the loan being subject to a forbearance plan described in (ii) above, the 0.30 multiplier will be applicable for no longer than three calendar months beginning with the month in which the loan became a non-performing loan due to having missed two monthly payments. Loans subject to a forbearance plan described in (ii) above include those that are either in a repayment plan or loan modification trial period following the forbearance plan unless reported to the approved insurer that the loan is no longer in such forbearance plan, repayment plan, or loan modification trial period. The PMIERs Amendment also imposed temporary capital preservation provisions through December 31, 2021 that required an approved insurer to meet certain PMIERs minimum required asset buffers (150% in the third quarter of 2021 and 115% in the fourth quarter of 2021) or otherwise obtain prior written GSE approval before paying any dividends, pledging or transferring assets to an affiliate or entering into any new, or altering any existing, arrangements under tax sharing and intercompany expense-sharing agreements even if such insurer had a surplus of available assets. In addition, the PMIERs Amendment imposed permanent revisions to the risk-based required asset amount factor for non-performing loans for properties located in future Federal Emergency Management Agency (“FEMA”) Declared Major Disaster Areas eligible for individual assistance. Therefore, the PMIERs Amendment may restrict or prevent GMICO from paying us dividends.
Our assessment of PMIERs compliance is based on a number of factors, including our understanding of the GSEs’ interpretation of the PMIERs financial requirements. Although we believe we have sufficient capital as required under PMIERs and we remain an approved insurer, there can be no assurance these conditions will continue. The GSEs require GMICO not to exceed a maximum ratio of RIF to statutory capital (“RTC ratio”) of 18:1 or they reserve the right to reevaluate the amount of PMIERs credit for reinsurance and other CRT transactions available under PMIERs indicated in their approval letters. There can be no assurance we will continue to meet the conditions contained in the GSE letters approving credit for reinsurance and other CRT transactions against PMIERs financial requirements. Freddie Mac has also
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imposed additional requirements on our option to commute these reinsurance agreements. Both GSEs reserved the right to periodically review the reinsurance transactions for treatment under PMIERs. If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Additionally, compliance with PMIERs requires us to seek the GSEs’ prior approval before taking many actions, including implementing certain new products or services, entering into inter-company agreements among others. PMIERs’ prior approval requirements could prohibit, materially modify or delay us in our intended course of action. The GSEs may modify or change their interpretation of terms they require us to include in our mortgage insurance coverage for loans purchased by them, requiring us to modify our terms of coverage or operational procedures to remain an approved insurer, and such changes could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition. It is possible the GSEs could, in their own discretion, require additional limitations and/or conditions on certain of our activities and practices that are not currently in the PMIERs for us to remain an approved insurer.
In September 2020, subsequent to the issuance of our $750 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes due 2025, the GSEs imposed certain restrictions (the “GSE Restrictions”) with respect to capital on our business. In May 2021, in connection with their conditional approval of the consummation of our IPO, the GSEs confirmed the GSE Restrictions will remain in effect until the following collective conditions (the “GSE Conditions”) are met: (i) GMICO obtains a “BBB+”/“Baa1” (or higher) rating from Standard & Poor’s Financial Services, LLC (“Standard & Poor’s”), Moody’s Investor Service, Inc. (“Moody’s”) or Fitch Ratings, Inc. (“Fitch”) for two consecutive quarters and (ii) our Parent achieves a debt leverage ratio (excluding U.S. life business equity) that is less than 25% and a cash coverage ratio that is at least 2.5 for two consecutive quarters. Prior to the satisfaction of the GSE Conditions, the GSE Restrictions require (a) GMICO to maintain 115% of PMIERs Minimum Required Assets through 2021, 120% during 2022 and 125% thereafter, (b) the Company to retain available liquidity the greater of either 13.5% of outstanding EHI debt or $300 million of its holding company cash that can be drawn down exclusively for Company debt service or to contribute to GMICO to meet its regulatory capital needs including PMIERs, and (c) prior written approval must be received from the GSEs before any additional debt issuance by either GMICO or the Company. In addition, GMICO is not permitted to make any dividends or distributions that would cause the PMIERs Available Assets to fall below the PMIERs Minimum Required Assets percentages set forth in clause (a) above. In addition, in calculating PMIERs Available Assets relative to any dividend or distribution, PMIERs Available Assets shall be calculated consistent with the capital preservation provisions of the PMIERs Amendment, and any amendments thereto. We distributed $437 million of the net proceeds from the 2025 Senior Notes to GHI at the closing of the offering of our 2025 Senior Notes. Thereafter, our Parent repaid debt maturities in an amount equal to the net proceeds of the offering of our 2025 Senior Notes (less certain amounts held back to fund interest payments and offering costs and expenses). In March 2021, our Parent sold all of its common shares in Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited (“GMA”), which resulted in a mandatory payment of approximately £176 million, including £2 million of interest, under the Promissory Note entered into in connection with the AXA Settlement, leaving a balance owed of approximately £249 million ($344 million), which was subsequently paid.
In addition, Fannie Mae agreed to reconsider the GSE Restrictions if our Parent were to own 50% or less of EHI at any point prior to their expiration. We will continue to assess our options. Currently, our Parent owns greater than 80% of EHI common stock, and has informed us they have no intention of entering into any transaction that would result in Parent owning 70% or less of our common stock indirectly. In addition, we have also entered into a Tax Allocation Agreement with our Parent that depends on our Parent’s continuing ownership of at least 80% of our common stock by both voting power and value. In the event that the Parent were to hold less than 80% of our common stock by either voting
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power or value, we would cease to be a member of the Genworth Consolidated Group and may be required to make a payment to the Parent in respect of tax benefits for which we received credit under the Tax Allocation Agreement, but which had not been utilized by the Genworth Consolidated Group at such time. These tax benefits would be available to reduce our tax liabilities in periods after we leave the Genworth Consolidated Group, subject to any applicable limitation that may apply with respect to such period or tax benefit.
Additional requirements or conditions imposed by the GSEs could limit our operating flexibility and the areas in which we may write new business and may adversely impact our competitive position and our business, the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends and our ability to pay down debts. “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Trends and Conditions.”
A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.
Losses in our mortgage insurance business generally result from events, such as a borrower’s reduction of income, unemployment, underemployment, divorce, illness, inability to manage credit, or a change in interest rate levels or home values, that reduce a borrower’s willingness or ability to continue to make mortgage payments. Rising unemployment rates and deterioration in economic conditions, including as a result of COVID-19, across the United States or in specific regional economies, generally increase the likelihood of borrower defaults and can also adversely affect housing values, which increases our risk of loss. Economic conditions, including unemployment rates and housing values, may also be adversely affected by the current or anticipated impact of climate change, including any regulations intended to address it. An increase in interest rates typically leads to higher monthly payments for borrowers with existing adjustable rate mortgages (“ARMs”) and could materially impact the cost and availability of refinance options for borrowers. See “—Interest rates and changes in rates could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.” A decline in home values typically makes it more difficult for borrowers to sell or refinance their homes, increasing the likelihood of a default followed by a claim if borrowers experience a job loss or other life events that reduce their incomes or increase their expenses. In addition, declines in home values may also decrease the willingness of borrowers with sufficient resources to make mortgage payments when their mortgage balances exceed the values of their homes. Declines in home values typically increase the severity of any claims we may pay. The seasonally-adjusted Purchase-Only U.S. Home Price Index of the FHFA, which is based on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, indicates that home prices increased by 17.5% in November 2021, after increasing by 11.6%, 5.9%, 5.6% and 6.2% in 2020, 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. The price-to-income ratio in some markets exceeds its historical average, in part as a result of recent home price appreciation outpacing increases in income. Given this steady rise in such home prices from 2016 through 2019 and steep rise in home prices in 2020 and 2021, we could experience a higher frequency and severity of defaults should home values decline in 2022 or subsequent years. Any of these events may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Housing values could also decline due to specific trends that would affect the housing and mortgage markets, such as decreased demand for homes, including as a result of social distancing, widespread adoption of remote work policies and other measures put in place as a result of COVID-19, changes in homebuyers’ expectations for potential future home value appreciation, increased restrictions or costs for obtaining mortgage credit due to tightened underwriting standards, tax policy, regulatory developments, higher interest rates and customers’ liquidity issues. Declining housing values may impact the effectiveness of our loss management programs, eroding the value of mortgage collateral and reducing the likelihood that properties with defaulted mortgages can be sold for an amount sufficient to offset unpaid principal and interest losses.
The amount of the loss we could suffer depends in part on whether the home of a borrower who defaults on a mortgage can be sold for an amount that will cover the unpaid principal balance, interest
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and the expenses of the sale. In previous economic slowdowns in the United States, we experienced a pronounced weakness in the housing market, as well as declines in home prices. These economic slowdowns and the resulting impact on the housing market drove high levels of delinquencies. Mortgage forbearance programs and any delays in foreclosure processes, including foreclosure moratoriums imposed by state and local governments due to COVID-19, could cause our losses to increase as expenses accrue for longer periods or if the value of foreclosed homes further decline during such delays; however, for new loans originated and insured on or after October 1, 2014, our mortgage insurance policies limit the number of months of unpaid interest and associated expenses that are included in the mortgage insurance claim amount to a maximum of 36 months. If we experience an increase in the number or the cost of delinquencies or losses that are higher than expected, including as a result of borrowers’ exit from forbearance programs upon such borrowers reaching the maximum term of forbearance, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
When we are notified that an insured loan is in default, we establish loss reserves based on management’s estimate of claim rates and claim sizes, which are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions about certain estimation parameters that may be volatile. As a result, the actual claim payments we make may materially differ from the amount of our corresponding loss reserves.
Our practice, consistent with industry practice and SAP applicable to insurance companies, is to establish loss reserves in our consolidated U.S. GAAP financial statements based on claim rates and severity for loans that servicers have reported to us as being in default, which is typically after the second missed payment. We also establish incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves for estimated losses incurred on loans in default that have not yet been reported to us by servicers.
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires significant judgment and numerous assumptions by management, and changes in assumptions or deviations of actual experience for assumptions can have material impacts on our loss reserves and net income (loss). Thus, our loss estimates may vary widely from quarter to quarter. We establish loss reserves using our best estimates of claim rates and severity to estimate the ultimate losses on loans reported to us as being in default as of the end of each reporting period. The sources of uncertainty affecting the estimates are numerous and include both internal and external factors. Internal factors include, but are not limited to, changes in the mix of exposures, loss mitigation activities and claim settlement practices. Significant external factors include changes in general economic conditions, including home prices, unemployment/underemployment, interest rates, tax policy, credit availability, government housing policies, government and GSE loss mitigation and mortgage forbearance programs, state foreclosure timelines, GSE and state foreclosure moratoriums and types of mortgage products. Because our assumptions relate to these factors that are not known in advance, change over time, are difficult to accurately predict and are inherently uncertain, we cannot determine with precision the ultimate amounts we will pay for actual claims or the timing of those payments. Even in a stable economic environment, the actual claim payments we make may be substantially different and even materially exceed the amount of our corresponding loss reserves for such claims. Small changes in assumptions or small deviations of actual experience from assumptions can have, and in the past have had, material impacts on our reserves, results of operations and financial condition.
In addition, sudden and/or unexpected deterioration of economic conditions, including as a result of COVID-19, may cause our estimates of loss reserves to be materially understated. Our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity could be adversely impacted if, and to the extent, our actual losses are greater than our loss and IBNR reserves.
We saw a significant increase in reserves in 2020. While reserves declined in 2021, reserves remained above pre-pandemic levels driven mostly by higher new delinquencies from borrower forbearance due to COVID-19. We expect a large portion of these delinquencies to cure; however, reserves recorded related to borrower forbearance rely on a high degree of estimation and assumptions that lack comparable historic data. Therefore, it is possible we could have higher contractual obligations
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related to these loss reserves if they do not cure as we expect. We expect that delinquencies will remain volatile and could increase or decrease, including as borrowers’ exit from forbearance programs upon reaching the maximum term of forbearance and depending on the level of economic recovery from COVID-19. As a result, we expect our losses incurred and loss reserves to be volatile in future periods. The impact of COVID-19 on the number of delinquencies, our losses incurred and loss reserves will be influenced by various factors, including those discussed in our risk factor titled “—The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has and could continue to adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
Further, consistent with industry practice, our reserving method does not take account of losses that could occur from insured loans that are not in default. Thus, future potential losses that may develop from loans not currently in default are not reflected in our financial statements, except in the case where we are required to establish a premium deficiency reserve. As a result, future losses on loans that are not currently in default may have a material impact on our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity if, and when, such losses emerge.
We regularly review our reserves and associated assumptions as part of our ongoing assessment of our business performance and risks. If we conclude that our reserves are insufficient to cover actual or expected claim payments as a result of changes in experience, assumptions or otherwise, we would be required to increase our reserves and incur charges in the period in which we make the determination. The amounts of such increases may be significant and this could materially adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
For additional information on reserves, including the financial impact of some of these risks, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Critical Accounting Estimates.”
If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We employ models to, among other uses, price our mortgage insurance products, calculate reserves, value assets and generate projections used to estimate future pre-tax income, as well as to evaluate risk, determine internal capital requirements and perform stress testing. These models rely on estimates and projections that are inherently uncertain, may use data and/or assumptions that do not adequately reflect recent experience and relevant industry data, and may not operate as intended. The models require accurate data, including financial statements, credit reports or other financial information, and reliance on such data could result in unexpected losses, reputational damage or other effects that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, if any of our models contain programming or other errors, are ineffective, use data provided by third parties that is incorrect, or if we are unable to obtain relevant data from third parties, our processes could be negatively affected. The models may prove to be less predictive than we expect for a variety of reasons, including economic conditions that develop differently than we forecast, unexpected economic and unemployment conditions that arise from pandemics such as COVID-19, changes in the law or in the PMIERs, issues arising in the construction, implementation, interpretation or use of the models or other programs, the use of inaccurate assumptions or use of short-term financial metrics that do not reveal long-term trends. The global nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in FEMA-declared emergencies in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, is unprecedented and results in a lack of comparable data inputs for our models. As a result, our expectations based on our models may vary from our experiences in the context of other historical FEMA-declared emergencies that have been more localized. For example, the ultimate cure rate for loan defaults resulting from the pandemic may be lower than we have previously experienced in the context of other FEMA-declared emergencies and lower than our expectations. See “—The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has and could continue to adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.” The limitations of our models may be material and could lead us to
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make wrong or sub-optimal decisions in aspects of our business, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In addition, from time to time we seek to improve our actuarial and financial models, and the conversion process may result in material changes to assumptions and financial results. The models we employ are complex, which increases our risk of error in their design, implementation or use. The associated input data, assumptions and calculations, and the controls we have in place to mitigate these risks may not be effective in all cases. The risks related to our models often increase when we change assumptions and/or methodologies, add or change modeling platforms, or implement model changes under time constraints. These risks are exacerbated when the process for assumption changes strains our overall governance and timing around our financial reporting. We intend to continue developing our modeling capabilities. During or after the implementation of these enhancements, we may discover errors or other deficiencies in existing models, assumptions and/or methodologies. For example, in the future we may either use additional, more granular information we expect to receive through enhancements in our reserving model or we may employ more simplified reserving approaches, and either approach may cause us to refine or otherwise change existing assumptions and/or methodologies and thus associated product pricing and reserve levels, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Competition within the mortgage insurance industry could result in the loss of market share, loss of customers, lower premiums, wider credit guidelines and other changes that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The United States private mortgage insurance industry is highly competitive. We believe the principal competitive factors in the sale of our products are price, reputation, customer relationships, financial strength ratings and service.
There are currently six active mortgage insurers in the United States, including us. Competition on price remains highly competitive. We monitor various competitive, risk and economic factors while seeking to balance both profitability and market share considerations in developing our pricing strategies. We have at times and may again in the future reduce certain of our rates, which will reduce and has reduced our premium yield (net premiums earned divided by the average IIF) over time as older mortgage insurance coverage with higher premium rates run off and new mortgage insurance coverage with lower premium rates are written. In addition, as a result of the current macroeconomic environment and the COVID-19 pandemic, we have implemented pricing changes that we believe align our risk and return profile. See “—The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has and could continue to adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
By mid-2019, the use of proprietary risk-based pricing models became widespread in the mortgage insurance industry. As opposed to traditional rate card pricing, mortgage insurance premium rates in these risk-based plans are visible only to customers and cannot be seen by competitors. In addition, our customers use of technology solutions to deliver rate quotes from mortgage insurers has placed an additional emphasis on price, including emerging tools that provide the ability to automate the selection of a mortgage insurance provider based on price alone. These factors may result in mortgage insurance companies responding aggressively and cause further lowering of premiums. However, risk-based plans are designed to also allow mortgage insurers to price risk more effectively and provide the ability to manage the credit risk and geographic makeup of their NIW.
In addition, not all of our mortgage insurance products have the same return on capital profile. To the extent that some of our competitors are willing to set lower pricing and accept lower returns than we find acceptable, we may lose business opportunities, and this may affect our overall business relationship with certain customers. If we, in response to competitor actions, lower pricing on these products, we will experience a similar reduction in returns on capital. Depending upon the degree to which we undertake or match such pricing practices or otherwise reduce our rates due to competition, there may be a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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One or more of our competitors may seek to capture increased market share by reducing pricing, offering alternative coverage and product options, loosening their underwriting guidelines or relaxing risk management policies, any of which could improve their competitive positions in the industry and negatively impact our ability to achieve our business goals. Specifically, such competitive moves could result in a loss of customers, require us to lower premiums or adopt riskier credit guidelines in order to remain competitive, or implement other changes that could lower our revenues, increase the risk of the loans we insure or increase our expenses. If we are unable to compete effectively against our competitors and attract and retain our target customers, our revenue may be adversely impacted, which could adversely impact our financial condition, results of operations and ability to grow our business.
• Changes to the charters or practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition .
The requirements and practices of the GSEs impact the operating results and financial performance of GSE-approved mortgage insurers, including us . Changes in the charters or business practices of either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac could materially reduce the number of mortgages they purchase that are insured by us and consequently diminish our business valuation. The GSEs could be directed to make such changes by the FHFA, which was appointed as their conservator in September 2008 and has the authority to control and direct the operations of the GSEs.
With the GSEs in a prolonged conservatorship, there has been ongoing debate over the future role and purpose of the GSEs in the United States housing market. Congress may legislate, or the administration may implement through administrative reform, structural and other changes to the GSEs and the functioning of the secondary mortgage market. Since 2011, there have been numerous legislative proposals intended to incrementally scale back the GSEs (such as a statutory mandate for the GSEs to transfer mortgage credit risk to the private sector) or to completely reform the United States housing finance system. Congress, however, has not enacted any legislation to date. The proposals vary as to the government’s role in the housing market, and more specifically, with regard to the existence of an explicit or implicit government guarantee.
Recently there has been an increased focus on and discussion of administrative reform independent of legislative action. Between FHFA and the United States Treasury Department (the “Treasury Department”), they possess significant capacity to effect administrative GSE reforms. On September 5, 2019, the Treasury Department released its Housing Reform Plan that included a compilation of legislative and administrative recommendations for reforms to achieve the goals of (i) ending the conservatorships of the GSEs, (ii) advancing competition in the housing finance market, (iii) setting regulations for the GSEs that provide for their safety and soundness and limit their risk to the financial stability of the United States and (iv) providing proper compensation to the United States government for any explicit or implicit support it provides to the GSEs. Additionally, on November 11, 2020, the then Director of the FHFA publicly stated his priority for exiting the GSEs from conservatorship. In conjunction with preparing to release the GSEs from conservatorship, on January 14, 2021, the FHFA and the Treasury Department agreed to amend the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (“PSPAs”) between the Treasury Department and each of the GSEs to increase the amount of capital each GSE may retain. In addition, among other things, the PSPAs limit the amount of certain mortgages the GSEs may acquire with two or more prescribed risk factors, including certain mortgages with combined loan-to-value ratios above 90%. Because these limits are based on the current market size, we do not expect any material impact to the private mortgage market in the near term. Under these PSPA amendments, the FHFA and the Treasury Department have agreed not to seek to terminate the GSEs from conservatorship unless, following the resolution of all litigation pending in connection with the conservatorship or the Treasury Department’s net worth sweep, the GSEs maintain a specified level of common equity tier 1 capital. While we do not expect that such restrictions will impact the GSEs’ origination volume or our mortgage insurance business, other modifications to the PSPAs or a consent order that may place continuing restrictions on the GSEs post conservatorship remain possible. Also on January 14, 2021, the Treasury Department released a Blueprint on Next Steps for GSE Reform that generally reiterated its commitment
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to the goals in the Housing Reform Plan and to pursue additional reforms to facilitate an exit from conservatorship, including (i) building sufficient equity capital to facilitate the GSEs’ ability to operate through a severe downturn, (ii) determining the optimal GSE capital structure, (iii) setting a commitment fee for ongoing support post-conservatorship, (iv) establishing appropriate pricing oversight and (v) reducing the market concentration of the GSEs.
FHFA and the GSEs are focused on increasing the accessibility and affordability of homeownership, in particular for low- and moderate-income borrowers and underserved minority communities. Among other things, FHFA (i) directed the GSEs to submit Equitable Housing Plans by the end of 2021 to identify and address barriers to sustainable housing opportunities, including the GSEs' goals and action plans to advance equity in housing finance for the next three years; (ii) lifted the 50 bps adverse market fee applicable to most refinance loans; (iii) directed the GSEs to expand their streamlined refinance programs; and (iv) directed the GSEs to make permanent desktop appraisals by incorporating the practice into their Selling Guides, which originally was a temporary practice implemented in light of COVID-19. These changes, along with any new practices or programs subsequently implemented under the GSEs’ Equitable Housing Plans or other affordability initiatives, may impact the fees, underwriting and servicing standards on mortgage loans purchased by the GSEs, including as it may relate to our mortgage insurance policies on such mortgage loans.
As part of the process to potentially end the conservatorships of the GSEs, on December 17, 2020, the FHFA promulgated a final rule imposing a new capital framework on the GSEs, including risk-based and leverage capital requirements and capital buffers in excess of regulatory minimums that can be drawn down in periods of financial stress (the “Enterprise Capital Framework”). The Enterprise Capital Framework became effective on February 16, 2021. However, the GSEs will not be subject to any requirement under the Enterprise Capital Framework until the applicable compliance date. Compliance with the Enterprise Capital Framework, other than the requirements to maintain a prescribed capital conservation buffer amount (“PCCBA”) and a prescribed leverage buffer amount (“PLBA”), is required on the later of (i) the date of termination of the conservatorship of a GSE and (ii) any later compliance date provided in a consent order or other transition order applicable to such GSE. FHFA contemplates that the compliance dates for the PCCBA and the PLBA will be the date of termination of the conservatorship of a GSE. The Enterprise Capital Framework’s advanced approaches requirements will be delayed until the later of (i) January 1, 2025 and (ii) any later compliance date provided by a transition order applicable to such GSE. The Enterprise Capital Framework significantly increases capital requirements and reduces capital credit on CRT transactions as compared to the previous framework. The final rule could cause the GSEs to increase their guarantee pricing in order to meet the new capital requirements. If the GSEs increase their guarantee pricing in order to meet the higher capital requirements, that increase could have a negative impact on the private mortgage insurance market and our business. Furthermore, higher GSE capital requirements could ultimately lead to increased costs to borrowers for GSE loans, which in turn could shift the market away from the GSEs to the FHA or lender portfolios. Such a shift could result in a smaller market size for private mortgage insurance. This rule could also accelerate the recent diversification of the GSE’s risk transfer programs to encompass a broader array of instruments beyond private mortgage insurance, which could adversely impact our business. Also in preparation for the end of the FHFA’s conservatorship of the GSEs, the FHFA promulgated a final rule on May 4, 2021, effective July 6, 2021, that requires the GSEs to develop plans that would facilitate their rapid and orderly resolution in the event FHFA is appointed as their receiver. Additionally, on June 23, 2021, the Supreme Court of the United States (the “Court”) issued a ruling on Collins vs. Yellen, which had challenged the FHFA’s single director structure and the Treasury Department’s net worth sweep under the PSPA. The Court held the FHFA did not exceed its statutory authority with respect to the Treasury Department’s net worth sweep under the PSPA. However, the Court determined that the FHFA’s single-director structure was unconstitutional and that the President can remove the director at-will. Subsequent to the issuance of the ruling, Mark Calabria, the former director of the FHFA, resigned and Sandra Thompson was appointed as acting director. The FHFA’s new leadership may result in a delay of the GSEs’ exit from conservatorship and in changes to the FHFA’s policies, including, but not limited to, (a) possible delays in the implementation of or the reworking of the Enterprise Capital Framework, (b) adjustments to the GSEs’
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loan-level pricing adjustments that could make private mortgage insurance less competitive or (c) revisions to the PSPAs, which could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The adoption of any GSE reform, whether through legislation or administrative action, could impact the current role of private mortgage insurance as credit enhancement, including its reduction or elimination, which would have an adverse effect on our business, revenue, results of operations and financial condition. At present, it is uncertain what role private capital, including mortgage insurance, will play in the United States residential housing finance system in the future or the impact any changes to that system could have on our business. Any changes to the charters or statutory authorities of the GSEs would require congressional action to implement. Passage and timing of any comprehensive GSE reform or incremental change (legislative or administrative) is uncertain, making the actual impact on us and our industry difficult to predict. Any such changes that come to pass could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In recent years, the FHFA has set goals for the GSEs to transfer significant portions of the GSEs’ mortgage credit risk to the private sector; however, under the FHFA’s new leadership, the timing of these goals could change. This mandate builds upon the goals set in each of the last five years for the GSEs to increase the role of private capital by experimenting with different forms of transactions and structures. We have participated in these CRT programs developed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on a limited basis. In 2018, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced the launch of limited pilot programs, Integrated Mortgage Insurance (“IMAGIN”) and Enterprise Paid Mortgage Insurance (“EPMI”), respectively, as alternative ways for lenders to sell to the GSEs loans with LTV ratios greater than 80%. These investor-paid mortgage insurance programs, in which insurance is acquired directly by each GSE, have many of the same features and represent an alternative to traditional private mortgage insurance products that are provided to individual lenders. Participants in IMAGIN and EPMI are not subject to compliance with the current PMIERs, a disparity that may create a competitive disadvantage for private mortgage insurers if these pilot programs are expanded. These programs were suspended in the third quarter of 2021, but to the extent these credit risk products evolve in a manner that displaces primary mortgage insurance coverage, the amount of insurance we write may be reduced. It is difficult to predict the impact of alternative CRT products that are developed to meet the goals established by the FHFA. In addition, the Enterprise Capital Framework that was promulgated on December 17, 2020 may impact the CRT programs developed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and/or the role of private mortgage insurance as credit enhancement by potentially accelerating the recent diversification of the GSE’s risk transfer programs to encompass a broader array of instruments, beyond private mortgage insurance.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also possess substantial market power, which enables them to influence our business and the mortgage insurance industry in general. Although we actively monitor and develop our relationships with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a deterioration in any of these relationships, or the loss of business or opportunities for new business, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The amount of mortgage insurance we write could decline significantly if alternatives to private mortgage insurance are used or lower coverage levels of mortgage insurance are selected.
There are a variety of alternatives to private mortgage insurance that may reduce the amount of mortgage insurance we write. These alternatives include:
• originating mortgages that consist of two simultaneous loans, known as “simultaneous seconds” comprising a first mortgage with a LTV ratio of 80% and a simultaneous second mortgage for the excess portion of the loan, instead of a single mortgage with a LTV ratio of more than 80%;
• using government mortgage insurance programs;
• holding mortgages in the lenders’ own loan portfolios and self-insuring;
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• using programs, such as those offered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, requiring lower mortgage insurance coverage levels;
• originating and securitizing loans in MBS whose underlying mortgages are not insured with private mortgage insurance or which are structured so that the risk of default lies with the investor, rather than a private mortgage insurer; and
• using risk-sharing insurance programs, credit default swaps or similar instruments, instead of private mortgage insurance, to transfer credit risk on mortgages.
The degree to which lenders or borrowers may select these alternatives now, or in the future, is difficult to predict. The performance and resiliency of the private mortgage insurance industry through COVID-19 could impact the perception of the industry and private mortgage insurance execution as the primary choice of first-loss credit protection, which could influence the popularity of alternative forms of mortgage insurance in the future. As one or more of the alternatives described above, or new alternatives that enter the market, are chosen over private mortgage insurance, our revenues could be adversely impacted. The loss of business in general or the specific loss of more profitable business could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Changes in the composition of our business or undue concentration by customer or geographic region may adversely affect us by increasing our exposure to loss of business or adverse performance of a small segment of our portfolio.
Our largest customer accounted for approximately 14% of our total NIW in 2021 and our top five customers generated approximately 28% of our NIW in 2021. Additionally, no customer had earned premiums that accounted for more than 10% of our total revenues for 2021. Changes in our ability to attract and retain a diverse customer base, and avoid undue concentration by geographic region or customer may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In the past, regional housing markets have experienced changes in home prices and unemployment at different rates and to different extents. In addition, certain geographic regions have experienced local recessions, falling home prices and rising unemployment based on economic conditions that did not impact, or impacted to a lesser degree, other geographic regions or the overall United States economy. See “—A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience . ” Geographic concentration in our mortgage portfolio therefore increases our exposure to losses due to localized economic conditions. This risk may be exacerbated by a disproportionate impact of COVID-19 in certain regions of the country. We seek to diversify our insured loan portfolio geographically; however, customer concentration might lead to concentrations in specific regions in the United States. If we do not adequately maintain the geographic diversity of our portfolio, we could be exposed to greater losses.
Also, customer concentration may adversely affect our financial condition if a significant customer chooses to increase its use of other mortgage insurers, merges with a competitor or exits the mortgage finance business, chooses alternatives to mortgage insurance, or experiences a decrease in their business. Our customers place insurance with us directly on loans they originate and indirectly through purchases of loans that already have our mortgage insurance coverage. Our relationships with our customers may influence both the amount of business they do with us directly and their willingness to continue to approve us as a mortgage insurance provider for loans that they purchase. Maintaining our business relationships and business volumes with our largest lending customers remains critical to the success of our business.
We cannot be certain that any loss of business from significant customers, or any single customer, would be replaced by business from other customers, existing or new. As a result of market conditions or changed regulatory requirements, our lending customers may decide to write business only with a limited number of mortgage insurers or only with certain mortgage insurers, based on their views with respect to an insurer’s pricing, service levels, underwriting guidelines, loss mitigation practices, financial strength,
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ratings, mechanisms of credit enhancements or other factors, including our customers’ perceptions of the strength of our Parent and its other subsidiaries. See “—We could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.”
Prior to COVID-19, traditional measures of credit quality, such as FICO score and whether a loan had a prior delinquency were most predictive of new delinquencies. Because the pandemic has affected a broad portion of the population, attribution analysis of new delinquencies revealed that additional factors such as higher DTI ratios, geographic regions more affected by the virus or with a higher concentration of affected industries, loan size, and servicer process differences rose in significance. Although we attempt to incorporate these higher expected claim rates into our models, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment income will be adequate to compensate for actual losses under our current underwriting requirements.
Our risk management programs may not be effective in identifying or adequate in controlling or mitigating the risks we face.
We have developed risk management programs that include risk appetite, limits, identification, quantification, governance, policies and procedures and seek to appropriately identify, monitor, measure, control, mitigate and report the types of risks to which we are subject. We regularly review our risk management programs and work to update them on an ongoing basis to be consistent with then current best market practices. However, our risk management programs may not fully control or mitigate all the risks we face or anticipate all potential material negative events.
Many of our methods for managing certain financial risks (e.g., credit, market and insurance risks) are based on observed historical market behaviors and/or historical, statistically-based models. Historical measures may not accurately predict future exposures, which could be significantly greater than historical measures have indicated. We have also established internal risk limits based upon these historical, statistically-based models and we monitor compliance with these limits. Our internal risk limits may be insufficient and our monitoring may not detect all violations (inadvertent or otherwise) of these limits. Other risk management methods are based on our evaluation of information regarding markets, customers and customer behavior, macroeconomic and environmental conditions, pandemics such as COVID-19, catastrophic occurrences and potential changing paradigms that are publicly available or otherwise accessible to us. See “Business—Risk Management.” This collective information may not always be accurate, complete, up to date or properly considered, interpreted or evaluated in our analyses. Moreover, the models and other parts of our risk management programs we rely on in managing various aspects of our business may prove to be less predictive than we expect. See “—If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.” The limitations of our models and other parts of our risk management programs may be material, and could lead us to make wrong or sub-optimal decisions in managing our risk and other aspects of our business, either of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Management of operational, legal, franchise and regulatory risks requires, among other things, methods to appropriately identify all such key risks, systems to record incidents and policies and procedures designed to mitigate, detect, record and address all such risks and occurrences. Management of technology risks requires methods to ensure our systems, processes and people are maintaining the confidentiality, availability and integrity of our information, ensuring technology is enabling our overall strategy and our ability to comply with applicable laws and regulations. If our risk management framework does not effectively identify, measure and control our risks, we could suffer unexpected losses or be adversely affected, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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We employ various strategies, including CRT transactions, which include traditional reinsurance and the issuance of MILNs, to mitigate financial risks inherent in our business and operations. Such transactions may not always be available to us, but when they are, they subject us to counterparty credit risk. The execution of these strategies also introduces operational risks and considerations. Developing effective strategies for dealing with these risks is a complex process, and no strategy can fully insulate us from those financial risks. See “—CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses”.
We may choose to retain certain levels of financial and/or non-financial risk, even when it is possible to mitigate these risks. The decision to retain certain levels of financial risk is predicated on our belief that the expected future returns that we will realize from retaining the risk, in relation to the level of risk retained, is favorable, but our expectations may be incorrect and we may incur material losses or suffer other adverse consequences that arise from the retained risk.
Our performance is highly dependent on our ability to manage risks that arise from day-to-day business activities, including underwriting, claims processing, administration and servicing, execution of our investment strategy, actuarial estimates and calculations, financial and tax reporting and other activities, many of which are very complex. We seek to monitor and control our exposure to risks arising out of or related to these activities through a variety of internal controls, management review processes and other mechanisms. However, the occurrence of unforeseen events, such as COVID-19, or the occurrence of events of a greater magnitude than expected, including those arising from inadequate or ineffective controls, a failure in processes, procedures or systems implemented by us or a failure on the part of employees upon which we rely, may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Past or future misconduct by our employees or employees of our vendors or suppliers could result in violations of laws by us, regulatory sanctions against us and/or serious reputational, legal or financial harm to our business, and the precautions we employ to prevent and detect this activity may not be effective in all cases. Although we employ controls and procedures designed to monitor the business decisions and activities of these individuals to prevent us from engaging in inappropriate activities, excessive risk taking, fraud or security breaches, these individuals may undertake these activities or risks regardless of our controls and procedures and such controls and procedures may fail to detect all such decisions and activities. Our compensation policies and procedures are reviewed by us as part of our overall risk management program, but it is possible that such compensation policies and practices could inadvertently incentivize excessive or inappropriate risk taking. If these individuals take excessive or inappropriate risks, those risks could harm our reputation and have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The extent of the benefits we realize from loss mitigation actions or programs in the future may be limited compared to years past.
As part of our loss mitigation efforts, we periodically investigate insured loans and evaluate the related servicing to ensure compliance with applicable guidelines and to detect possible fraud or misrepresentation. As a result, we have rescinded, and may in the future rescind, coverage on loans that do not meet our guidelines. In the past, we recognized significant benefits from taking action on these investigations and evaluations under our master policies. However, the PMIERs rescission relief principles, which have been incorporated into our mortgage insurance policies since 2014, limit our rescission rights for underwriting defects, misrepresentation, and in other circumstances, such as in cases where the borrower makes a certain number of timely mortgage payments. Therefore, we may not recognize the same level of future benefits from rescission actions as we have in years prior to 2014, potentially resulting in higher losses than under our older master policies. In addition, our rescission rights and certain other rights have temporarily become more limited due to accommodations we have made in connection with COVID-19. On April 17, 2020, we announced that we will not make loans ineligible for rescission relief in certain circumstances where the failure to make payments was associated with a COVID-19-related forbearance. The mortgage finance industry (with government support) has adopted
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various programs to modify delinquent loans to make them more affordable to borrowers with the goal of reducing the number of foreclosures. Our master policies contain covenants that require cooperation and loss mitigation by the insured. The effect on us of a loan modification depends on re-default rates, which can be affected by factors such as changes in home values and unemployment. Our estimates of the number of loans qualifying for modification programs is based on management’s judgment as informed by past experience and current market conditions but are inherently uncertain. We cannot predict what the actual volume of loan modifications will be or the ultimate re-default rate, and therefore, we cannot be certain whether these efforts will provide material benefits to us.
Interest rates and changes in rates could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Declining interest rates historically have increased the rate at which borrowers refinance their existing mortgages, thereby resulting in cancellations of the mortgage insurance covering existing loans. Declining interest rates have also contributed to home price appreciation, which may provide borrowers with the option of cancelling mortgage insurance coverage earlier than we anticipated when we priced that coverage. In addition, during 2020 and 2021, as a result of the low interest rate environment, our business experienced a decline in primary persistency rates. Lower primary persistency rates result in reduced IIF and earned premiums, which could have a significant adverse impact on our results of operations.
Rising interest rates generally reduce the volume of new mortgage originations and refinances. A decline in the volume of new or refinance mortgage originations would have an adverse effect on our NIW, which may in turn decrease our earned premiums. Rising interest rates also can increase the monthly mortgage payments for homeowners with insured loans that have ARMs that could have the effect of increasing default rates on ARM loans, thereby increasing our exposure on our mortgage insurance coverage. Higher interest rates can lead to an increase in defaults as borrowers at risk of default will find it harder to qualify for a replacement loan. Additionally, inflation accelerated in 2021 and may remain elevated in the near term reflecting higher demand from re-opening, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and supply chain disruptions. We currently believe the drivers of higher inflation to be transitory. However, if inflation were to persist further into 2022, it has the potential to raise interest rates and depress home sales due to rising affordability pressures from both higher rates and higher prices from continued supply chain disruption and lack of supply. In such a scenario, we would expect new business volume to decrease from both lower refinance and purchase activity. We believe that the impact to our new business volume would be offset by higher persistency on our existing insured loans since the prevailing market interest rate would rise above the loan interest rate. The exact outcome of these two offsetting trends is difficult to assess.
In addition, interest rate fluctuations could also have an adverse effect on the results of our investment portfolio. During periods of declining market interest rates, the interest we receive on variable interest rate investments decreases. In addition, during those periods, we reinvest the cash we receive as interest or return of principal on our investments in lower-yielding high-grade instruments or in lower-credit investment grade instruments to maintain comparable returns. Issuers of fixed-income securities may also decide to prepay their obligations in order to borrow at lower market rates, which exacerbates the risk that we have to invest the cash proceeds of these securities in lower-yielding or lower-credit investment grade instruments. During periods of increasing interest rates, market values of lower-yielding instruments will decline. See “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” for additional information about interest rate risk.
We may be unable to maintain or increase the capital needed in our business in a timely manner, on anticipated terms or at all, including through improved business performance, CRT transactions, securities offerings or otherwise, in each case as and when required.
We may require incremental capital to support our growth and to meet regulatory or GSE capital requirements, to comply with rating agency criteria to maintain ratings, to repay our debt and to operate
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and meet unexpected cash flow obligations. If we need additional capital in the future, we may not be able to fund or raise the required capital as and when required and the amount of capital required may be higher than anticipated. Our inability to fund or raise the capital required in the anticipated timeframes and on the anticipated terms, could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition, including causing us to reduce our business levels or be subject to a variety of regulatory actions.
As of December 31, 2021, we met the PMIERs financial and operational requirements, based in part on our entry into a series of CRT transactions. As of December 31, 2021, we had estimated available assets of $5,077 million against $3,074 million net required assets under PMIERs compared to available assets of $4,588 million against $3,359 million net required assets as of December 31, 2020. The sufficiency ratio as of December 31, 2021 was 165% or $2,003 million above the published PMIERs requirements, compared to 137% or $1,229 million above the published PMIERs requirements as of December 31, 2020. For information with respect to higher PMIERs sufficiency ratios in future periods as a result of the GSE Restrictions, see “Item 1A. Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business— If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.” During 2020, the GSEs issued several amendments to PMIERs. The December 4, 2020 Amendment extended the application of reduced PMIERs capital factors to each non-performing loan that has an initial missed monthly payment occurring on or after March 1, 2020 and prior to April 1, 2021 and capital preservation period from March 31, 2021 to June 30, 2021. On June 30, 2021, the GSEs issued a revised and restated version of the PMIERs Amendment that replaced the version issued on December 4, 2020. The June 30, 2021 version allows loans that enter a forbearance plan due to a COVID-19 hardship on or after April 1, 2021 to remain eligible for extended application of the reduced PMIERs capital factor for as long as the loan remains in forbearance. The June 30, 2021 version also imposed temporary capital preservation provisions through December 31, 2021 that required an approved insurer to meet certain PMIERs minimum required asset buffers (150% in the third quarter of 2021 and 115% in the fourth quarter of 2021) or otherwise obtain prior written GSE approval before paying any dividends, pledging or transferring assets to an affiliate or entering into any new, or altering any existing, arrangements under tax sharing and intercompany expense-sharing agreements, even if such insurer had a surplus of available assets. See “Regulation—Agency Qualification Requirements.” In order to continue to provide a prudent level of financial flexibility in connection with the current PMIERs capital requirements, and given the dynamic nature of asset and liability valuations, requirement changes over time and recent conditions and restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may be required to execute future capital transactions, including additional CRT transactions and other transactions with third parties to provide additional capital.
However, the implementation of any further CRT transactions or other transactions with third parties to provide additional capital depends on a number of factors, including but not limited to: market conditions, necessary third-party approvals (including approval by regulators and the GSEs) and other factors that are outside of our control. Therefore, we cannot be sure we will be able to implement successfully these actions on the timetable and terms acceptable to us or at all or achieve the anticipated benefits. We also cannot be sure we will be able to meet any additional capital requirements imposed by regulators or the GSEs. See “—CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses” and “—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
In order to preserve certain tax benefits it obtains from consolidation, our Parent is expected to hold at least 80% of our common stock. Thus, our ability to raise additional capital by issuing stock to third parties will be limited. See “Risks Relating to Taxation—Our Parent is expected to retain at least 80%
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ownership of our common stock to preserve the value of our Parent’s future expected tax losses, which will limit our ability to raise additional capital by issuing common stock to third parties.”
CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses.
As part of our overall risk and capital management strategy, we use CRT transactions. These transactions enable our mortgage insurance business to transfer risks in exchange for some of the associated economic benefits and, as a result, improve our PMIERs and other regulatory RTC measurements and manage risk to within our anticipated tolerance level. See “Business—Credit Risk Transfer.”
The availability and cost of CRT transactions may be impacted by conditions beyond our control, such as market conditions that result in higher rates of unemployment or a significant negative impact on the United States housing market, including those caused by COVID-19. For example, CRT transactions were more costly to obtain following the economic downturn caused by COVID-19. In particular, the market uncertainty caused by COVID-19 resulted in higher prices for our MILN and XOL reinsurance transactions. Accordingly, we incurred higher expenses associated with CRT transactions during 2020 and 2021 for a variety of reasons, including COVID-19 and we may be unable to obtain new transactions on acceptable terms, or at all in the future. Absent the availability and affordability to enter into new CRT transactions, our ability to obtain PMIERs or statutory credit for new transactions could be adversely impacted or could require us to make capital contributions to maintain regulatory capital requirements. See “—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
Additionally, many of the CRT transactions we execute expose us to credit risk in the event of default of our counterparties or a change in collateral value. For instance, traditional reinsurance does not relieve us of our direct liability to our policyholders, even when the reinsurer is liable to us. Accordingly, we bear credit risk with respect to our reinsurers. We cannot be sure that our reinsurers will pay amounts owed to us now or in the future or that they will pay these amounts on a timely basis. A reinsurer’s insolvency, inability or unwillingness to make payments under the terms of its reinsurance agreement with us could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations. Collateral is often posted by the counterparty to offset this risk; however, we bear the risk that the collateral declines in value or otherwise is inadequate to fully compensate us in the event of a default.
Adverse rating agency actions have resulted in a loss of business and adversely affected our business, results of operations and financial condition and future adverse rating agency actions could have a further and more significant adverse impact on us.
Financial strength ratings, which various rating agencies publish as measures of an insurance company’s ability to meet obligations, are important to maintaining public confidence in our mortgage insurance coverage and our competitive position. In assigning financial strength ratings, we believe the rating agencies consider several factors, including but not limited to, the adequacy of the mortgage insurer’s capital to withstand high claim scenarios, a mortgage insurer’s historical and projected operating performance, a mortgage insurer’s enterprise risk management framework, parent company financial strength, business outlook, competitive position, management and corporate strategy. The rating agency issuing the financial strength rating can withdraw or change its rating at any time.
Under PMIERs, the GSEs require maintenance of at least one rating with a rating agency acceptable to the respective GSEs. The current PMIERs do not include a specific ratings requirement with respect to eligibility, but if this were to change in the future, we may become subject to a ratings requirement in order to retain our eligibility status under PMIERs. Ratings downgrades that result in our inability to insure new mortgage loans sold to the GSEs, or the transfer by the GSEs of our existing policies to an alternative
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mortgage insurer, would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Despite recent credit upgrades following our IPO, we currently have financial strength ratings below our competitors. Any assigned financial strength rating that remains below our peers or a further downgrade in our financial strength ratings, or the announcement of a potential downgrade could hinder our competitiveness in the marketplace and could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition in many ways, including: (i) increasing scrutiny of us and our financial condition by the GSEs and/or our customers, potentially resulting in a decrease in the amount of our NIW or, in the most severe case, the cessation of writing new business altogether, or limiting the business opportunities we are presented with and (ii) requiring us to reduce the premiums that we charge for mortgage insurance or introduce new products and services in order to remain competitive. Further, our relationships with our customers may be adversely affected by the ratings assigned to our Parent or its other operating subsidiaries, which may be impacted by factors such as any risk or perceived risk regarding our Parent’s liquidity and its (or its affiliates) ability to meet obligations as they become due, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “—We could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.”
Further, a rating is based on information furnished by us or obtained by the relevant rating agency from its own sources and is subject to revision, suspension or withdrawal by the rating agency at any time. Rating agencies may review the ratings assigned to us due to developments that are beyond our control and any anticipated positive changes in ratings, may never develop or be realized.
We compete with government-owned enterprises and GSEs, and this may put us at a competitive disadvantage on pricing and other terms and conditions.
We compete with the FHA and the United States Department of Veteran Affairs (the “VA”), as well as certain local-and state-level housing finance agencies. Separately, the GSEs compete with us through certain of their risk-sharing insurance programs. Those competitors may establish pricing terms and business practices that may be influenced by motives such as advancing social housing policy or stabilizing the mortgage lending industry. Those motives may not be consistent with maximizing return on capital or other profitability measures. In addition, those governmental enterprises typically do not have the same capital requirements or costs of capital that we and other mortgage insurance companies have and therefore may have financial flexibility in their pricing and capacity that could put us at a competitive disadvantage. In the event that a government-owned enterprise or GSE in one of our markets determines to change prices significantly or alter the terms and conditions of its mortgage insurance or other credit enhancement products in furtherance of social or other goals rather than a profit or risk management motive, we may be unable to compete in that market effectively, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “—Changes to the charters or practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
Our valuation of fixed maturity, equity and trading securities uses methodologies, estimations and assumptions that are subject to change and differing interpretations that could result in changes to investment valuations that may materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Income from our investment portfolio is a source of cash to support our operations and make claims payments. If we or our investment managers improperly structure our investments to meet those future liabilities or we have unexpected losses, including losses resulting from the forced liquidation of investments before their maturity, we may be unable to meet those obligations. Our investments and investment policies are subject to state insurance laws, which results in our portfolio being predominantly limited to highly-rated fixed income securities. If interest rates rise, the market value of our investment portfolio would decrease, which may adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial
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condition and liquidity. See “—Interest rates and changes in rates could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
We report fixed maturity, equity and trading securities at fair value on our consolidated balance sheets. These securities represent the majority of our total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and invested assets. Our portfolio of fixed maturity securities consists primarily of investment grade securities. Estimates of fair values for fixed maturity securities are obtained primarily from industry-standard pricing methodologies utilizing market observable inputs. For our less liquid securities, such as our privately placed securities, we utilize independent market data to employ alternative valuation methods commonly used in the financial services industry to estimate fair value. Based on the market observability of the inputs used in estimating the fair value, the pricing level is assigned. Valuations use inputs and assumptions that are not always observable or may require estimation; valuation methods may be complex and may also require estimation, thereby resulting in values that are less certain and may vary significantly from the value at which the investments may be ultimately sold. The methodologies, estimates and assumptions we use in valuing our investment securities evolve over time and are subject to different interpretation (including based on developments in relevant accounting literature), all of which can lead to changes in the value of our investment securities. Rapidly changing and unanticipated interest rate movements, as well as external macroeconomic, credit and equity market conditions could materially impact the valuation of investment securities as reported within our consolidated financial statements, and the period-to-period changes in value could vary significantly. Decreases in value may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We may be forced to change our investments or investment policies depending upon regulatory, economic and market conditions and our existing or anticipated financial condition and operating requirements, including the tax position, of our business. As a result, our investment objectives may not be achieved, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
If servicers fail to adhere to appropriate servicing standards or experience disruptions to their businesses, our losses could increase.
We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. Among other things, our mortgage insurance policies require insureds and their servicers to timely submit premium and monthly IIF and delinquency reports and to use commercially reasonable efforts to limit and mitigate loss when a loan is delinquent. If a servicer was to experience adverse effects to its business, such servicer could experience delays in its reporting and premium payment requirements. Without reliable, consistent third-party servicing, we may be unable to receive and process payments on insured loans and/or properly recognize and establish reserves on loans when a delinquency exists or occurs but is not reported to us. In addition, if these servicers fail to limit and mitigate losses when appropriate, our losses may unexpectedly increase. The number of borrowers seeking or having obtained mortgage relief from the COVID-19 pandemic may place a significant strain on the operations of mortgage servicers, which could disrupt the servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. This may result in servicers failing to appropriately report the delinquency status of loans, including whether the loans are subject to a COVID-19-related forbearance program, or failing to properly implement GSE forbearance or other loss mitigation programs. COVID-19 may also significantly impair the financial condition and liquidity of mortgage servicers who are required to advance principal, interest and tax payments to mortgage investors during borrower mortgage forbearance periods.
In recent years, the number of non-bank mortgage loan servicers has increased as the mortgage lending and mortgage loan servicing industries have come under increasing regulation and scrutiny. Significant, sustained failures by large servicers or other disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans may damage our reputation, result in a loss of customer business, subject us to additional regulatory scrutiny and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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Inadequate staffing levels could lead to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans, which in turn may contribute to a rise in delinquencies and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. High delinquency rates could also strain the resources of servicers, reducing their ability to undertake mitigation efforts that would help limit losses.
Furthermore, we have delegated to the GSEs, which have in turn delegated to most of their servicers, the authority to accept modifications, short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure on loans we insure. Servicers are required to operate under protocols established by the GSEs in accepting these loss mitigation alternatives. We depend on servicers in making these decisions and mitigating our exposure to losses. In some cases, loss mitigation decisions favorable to the GSEs may not be favorable to us and may increase the incidence of paid claims. Inappropriate delegation protocols or failure of servicers to service in accordance with the protocols may increase the magnitude of our losses and have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Our delegation of loss mitigation decisions to the GSEs is subject to cancellation, but exercise of our cancellation rights may have an adverse effect on our relationship with the GSEs and customers.
Our delegated underwriting program may subject our mortgage insurance business to unanticipated claims.
We enter into agreements with our customers that commit us to insure loans made by them using our pre-established guidelines for delegated underwriting. Delegated underwriting represented 65% and 66% of our total NIW by loan count for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Once we accept a customer into our delegated underwriting program, we generally insure a loan originated by that customer without validating the accuracy of the data submitted by the customer, investigating the loan file for fraud, or confirming that the customer followed our pre-established guidelines for delegated underwriting. See “Business—Underwriting.” Under this program, a customer could commit us to insure a material number of loans that would fail our pre-established guidelines for delegated underwriting but pass our model and certain gating criteria before we discover the problem and terminate that customer’s delegated underwriting authority. Although coverage on such loans may be rescindable or otherwise limited under the terms of our master policies, the burden of establishing the right to rescind or deny coverage lies with the insurer. To the extent that our customers exceed their delegated underwriting authorities, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected.
Potential liabilities in connection with our contract underwriting services could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We offer contract underwriting services to certain of our customers, pursuant to which our employees and contractors work directly with the customer to determine whether the data relating to a borrower and a proposed loan contained in a mortgage loan application file complies with the customer’s loan underwriting guidelines or the investor’s loan purchase requirements. In connection with that service, we also compile the application data and submit it to the automated underwriting systems of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which independently analyze the data to determine if the proposed loan complies with their investor requirements.
Under the terms of our contract underwriting agreements, we agree to indemnify the customer against losses incurred if we make material errors in determining whether loans processed by our contract underwriters meet specified underwriting or purchase criteria, subject to contractual limitations on liability. As a result, we assume credit and processing risk in connection with our contract underwriting services. If our reserves for potential claims in connection with our contract underwriting services are inadequate as a result of differences from our estimates and assumptions or other reasons, we may be required to increase our underlying reserves, which could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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The premiums we agree to charge for our mortgage insurance coverage may not adequately compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the coverage we provide.
We establish premium rates for the duration of a mortgage insurance certificate upon issuance, and we cannot adjust the premiums after a certificate is issued. As a result, we cannot offset the impact of unanticipated claims with premium increases on coverage in-force. Our premium rates vary with the perceived risk of a claim and prepayment on the insured loan and are developed using models based on our long term historical experience, which takes into account a number of factors including, but not limited to, the LTV ratio, whether the mortgage provides for fixed payments or variable payments, the term of the mortgage, the borrower’s credit history, the borrower’s income and assets, and home price appreciation. See “—If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.” In the event the premiums we charge for our mortgage insurance coverage may not adequately compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the coverage, it may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operation and financial condition.
A decrease in the volume of Low-Down Payment Loan originations or an increase in the volume of mortgage insurance cancellations could result in a decline in our revenue.
We provide mortgage insurance primarily for Low-Down Payment Loans. Factors that could lead to a decrease in the volume of Low-Down Payment Loan originations include, but are not limited to:
• an increase in home mortgage interest rates and further limitations on the deductibility of local property taxes for federal income tax purposes;
• implementation of more rigorous mortgage lending regulation, such as under the Dodd-Frank Act;
• a decline in economic conditions generally, or in conditions in regional and local economies;
• events outside of our control, including natural and man-made disasters and pandemics such as COVID-19, adversely affecting housing markets and home buying;
• the level of consumer confidence, which may be adversely affected by economic instability, war or terrorist events;
• an increase in the price of homes relative to income levels;
• a lack of housing supply at lower home prices;
• adverse population trends, including lower homeownership rates;
• high rates of home price appreciation, which for refinancings affect whether refinanced loans have LTV ratios that require mortgage insurance; and
• changes in government housing policy encouraging loans to FTHBs.
A decline in the volume of Low-Down Payment Loan originations would reduce the demand for mortgage insurance and, therefore, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “—A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.”
In addition, a significant percentage of the premiums we earn each year are renewal premiums from mortgage insurance coverage written in previous years. We estimate that approximately 84% of our gross premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2021 were renewal premiums compared to approximately 85% and 88% for the years ended December 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively. As a result, the length of time insurance remains in-force is an important determinant of our mortgage insurance
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revenues. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and many other mortgage investors generally permit a borrower to ask the loan servicer to cancel the borrower’s obligation to pay for mortgage insurance when the principal amount of the mortgage falls below 80% of the home’s value. Furthermore, the Homeowners Protection Act of 1998 (“HOPA”) provides a right for a borrower, so long as the borrower meets other criteria, to request cancellation of private mortgage insurance from their lender either on the date the LTV ratio of the mortgage is first scheduled to reach 80% of its original value or the date on which the LTV ratio of the mortgage reaches 80% of the original value based on actual payments. Likewise, under HOPA, there is an obligation for lenders to automatically terminate a borrower’s obligation to pay for mortgage insurance coverage once the LTV ratio reaches 78% of the original value. Factors that tend to reduce the length of time our mortgage insurance remains in-force include:
• declining interest rates, which may result in the refinancing of the mortgages underlying our mortgage insurance coverage with new mortgage loans that may not require mortgage insurance or that we do not insure;
• customer concentration levels with certain customers that actively market refinancing opportunities to their existing borrowers;
• significant appreciation in the value of homes, which causes the unpaid balance of the mortgage to decrease below 80% of the value of the home and enables the borrower to request cancellation of the mortgage insurance; and
• changes in mortgage insurance cancellation requirements or procedures of the GSEs or under applicable law.
Changes in the methodology by which servicers determine the cancellation dates of mortgage insurance under the Homeowners Protection Act, GSE requirements or otherwise, including as a result of changes in law or regulation, GSE rules or guidance, including changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic or homeowner affordability initiatives, or for any other reason, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our persistency rates on primary mortgage insurance were 62%, 59% and 76% for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively. The decrease in our persistency rate since 2019 has been largely as a result of the low interest rate environment precipitated by the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. A decrease in persistency generally would reduce the amount of our IIF and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. However, higher persistency on certain legacy products, especially A minus, Alt-A, ARMs and certain 100% LTV loans, could have a material adverse effect if claims generated by such products remain elevated or increase.
We collect, process, store, share, disclose and use consumer information and other data, and an actual or perceived failure to protect such information and data or respect users’ privacy could damage our reputation and brand and adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We retain confidential customer information in our computer systems, and we rely on commercial technologies to maintain the security of those systems, including computers or mobile devices. Anyone who can circumvent our security measures and penetrate our computer systems or misuse authorized access could access, view, misappropriate, alter, or delete any information in the systems, including personally identifiable information and proprietary business information. Our employees and vendors use portable computers or mobile devices that may contain similar information to that in our computer systems, and these devices have been and can be lost, stolen or damaged, and therefore subject to the same risks as our other computer systems. In addition, an increasing number of states require that affected parties be notified or other actions be taken (which could involve significant costs to us) if a security breach results in the inappropriate disclosure of personally identifiable information. We have experienced occasional, actual or attempted breaches of our cybersecurity, although to date none of
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these breaches has had a material effect on our business, operations or reputation. Any compromise of the security of our computer systems or those of our customers and third-party service providers that results in inappropriate disclosure of personally identifiable customer information could damage our reputation in the marketplace, deter lenders from purchasing our mortgage insurance, subject us to significant civil and criminal liability and require us to incur significant technical, legal and other expenses.
Any failure or perceived failure by us to comply with our privacy policies, our privacy-related obligations to consumers or other third parties, or our privacy-related legal obligations, or any compromise of security that results in the unauthorized release or transfer of sensitive information, which could include personally identifiable information or other user data, may result in governmental investigations, enforcement actions, regulatory fines, litigation and public statements against us by consumer advocacy groups or others, and could cause our customers to lose trust in us, all of which could be costly and have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Regulatory agencies or business partners may institute more stringent data protection requirements or certifications than those that we are currently subject to and, if we cannot comply with those standards in a timely manner, we may lose the ability to sell our products or process transactions containing payment information. Moreover, if third parties that we work with violate applicable laws or our policies, such violations also may put consumer information at risk and could in turn harm our reputation, our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The requirements of being a public company may strain our resources and distract our management, which could make it difficult to manage our business and cause us to incur incremental costs.
Historically, we have not been subject to the same financial, reporting and other corporate governance requirements as public companies. We are now required to prepare and file annual, quarterly and other reports with the SEC, including financial statements that comply with the SEC’s detailed reporting requirements. We are also subject to other reporting and corporate governance requirements under the listing standards of Nasdaq and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which will impose significant compliance costs and obligations upon us. The changes necessitated by our becoming a public company will continue to require a significant commitment of additional resources and management oversight, which may increase our operating costs. These changes will also place significant additional demands on our finance and accounting staff, who may not have experience working for a public company, and on our financial accounting and information systems. We have and may continue to hire additional accounting and financial staff with appropriate public company reporting experience and technical accounting knowledge. We have and may continue to incur other expenses associated with being a public company, including, but not limited to, increases in auditing, accounting and legal fees and expenses, investor relations expenses, directors’ fees and director and officer liability insurance costs, registrar and transfer agent fees and listing fees. As a public company, we are required, among other things, to:
• prepare and file periodic reports, and distribute other stockholder communications, in compliance with the federal securities laws and the listing requirements and rules of the Nasdaq;
• define and expand the roles and the duties of our board of directors and its committees;
• institute more comprehensive compliance, investor relations and internal audit functions; and
• evaluate and maintain our system of internal controls over financial reporting, and report on management’s assessment thereof, in compliance with rules and regulations of the SEC and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.
Our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries have continued to perform or support many important corporate functions for our operations, including but not limited to, investment management, information technology services and certain administrative services (such as finance, human resources, employee benefit administration and legal). Our consolidated financial statements reflect charges for these services. There is no assurance that these services will be sustained at the same levels or that we
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would be able to replace such services in a timely manner or on comparable terms. Specific services provided under the Shared Services Agreement may be terminated by either party for convenience with at least one hundred eighty (180) days’ prior written notice to the other party. If our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries cease to provide services pursuant to the terms of our existing agreements, our costs of procuring services from third parties may increase. As a standalone company, we may be unable to obtain such goods and services at comparable prices or on terms as favorable as those obtained prior to our IPO, either of which could adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition. See “—Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—The terms of our existing arrangements between our Parent and third parties under which we receive services as an affiliate of our Parent may be more favorable than we will be able to obtain from a third party on our own.”
Risks Relating to Regulatory Matters
Our business is extensively regulated and changes in regulation may reduce our profitability and limit our growth.
Our insurance operations are subject to a wide variety of laws and regulations and are extensively regulated. State insurance laws regulate most aspects of our business, and our insurance subsidiaries are regulated by the insurance departments of the states in which they are domiciled and licensed. Failure to comply with applicable regulations or to obtain or maintain appropriate authorizations or exemptions under any applicable laws could result in restrictions on our ability to conduct business or engage in activities regulated in one or more jurisdictions in which we operate and could subject us to fines, injunctions and other sanctions that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, the nature and extent of regulation could materially change, which may result in additional costs associated with compliance with any such changes, or changes to our operations that may be necessary to comply, any of which may have a material adverse effect on our business. See “—An adverse change in our regulatory requirements could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition” and “—Risks Relating to Our Business—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
State insurance regulatory authorities have broad administrative powers, which at times are coordinated and communicated across regulatory bodies. These administrative powers include, but are not limited to:
• licensing companies and agents to transact business;
• regulating certain premium rates;
• reviewing and approving policy forms;
• regulating discrimination in pricing, coverage terms and unfair trade and claims practices, including payment of inducements;
• establishing and revising statutory capital and reserve requirements and solvency standards;
• evaluating enterprise risk to an insurance company;
• approving changes in control of insurance companies;
• restricting the payment of dividends and other transactions between affiliates;
• regulating the types, amounts and valuation of investments; and
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• restricting, pursuant to state monoline restrictions, the types of insurance products that may be offered.
State insurance regulators and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (the “NAIC”) regularly re-examine existing laws and regulations, which may lead to modifications to SAP, interpretations of existing laws and the development of new laws and regulations applicable to insurance companies and their products. Further, we could become subject to future legislation or regulatory requirements related to the COVID-19 pandemic or climate change.
Litigation and regulatory investigations or other actions are common in the insurance business and may result in financial losses, injunctions and harm to our reputation.
We face the risk of litigation and regulatory investigations or other actions in the ordinary course of operating our business.
Mortgage insurers have been involved in litigation alleging violations of Section 8 of the Real Estate Settlement and Procedures Act of 1974 (“RESPA”) or related state anti-inducement laws and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit Reporting Act (“FCRA”). Among other things, Section 8 of RESPA generally precludes mortgage insurers from paying referral fees to mortgage lenders for the referral of mortgage insurance business. This limitation also can prohibit providing services or products to mortgage lenders free of charge, charging fees for services that are lower than their reasonable or fair market value, and paying fees for services that mortgage lenders provide that are higher than their reasonable or fair market value, in exchange for the referral of mortgage insurance business. Various regulators, including the CFPB, state insurance commissioners and state attorneys general may bring actions seeking various forms of relief in connection with alleged violations of the referral fee limitations of RESPA, as well as by private litigants in class actions. The insurance law provisions of many states also prohibit or restrict paying for the referral of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to enforce this prohibition.
In the past, a number of lawsuits have challenged the actions of mortgage insurance companies, including certain of our mortgage insurance subsidiaries, under RESPA, alleging that the insurers have violated the referral fee prohibition of Section 8 of RESPA by entering into captive reinsurance arrangements or providing products or services to mortgage lenders at improperly reduced prices in return for the referral of mortgage insurance. In addition to these private lawsuits, we and other mortgage insurance companies have in the past received civil investigative demands from the CFPB and state insurance regulators as part of their respective investigations to determine whether mortgage lenders and mortgage insurance providers engaged in acts or practices in connection with their captive mortgage insurance arrangements in violation of RESPA and state insurance laws. In 2013, the CFPB entered into consent orders with us and three other mortgage insurance companies settling the CFPB’s allegations related to mortgage insurance company captive arrangements, and those consent orders remain in effect for a period of ten years. One CFPB enforcement action against a mortgage originator for alleged kickbacks received from mortgage insurers, in which the CFPB ordered the mortgage originator to pay approximately $109 million in disgorgement, was decided by the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. On January 31, 2018, the en banc panel reinstated the original three-judge panel’s decision to overturn the CFPB’s order on certain statutory grounds, including finding fault with the CFPB’s interpretation of Section 8 of RESPA. The court’s ruling in this case may have an impact on future enforcement activity. Federal and state regulatory enforcement of Section 8 of RESPA presents risk for many providers of “settlement services,” including mortgage insurers.
In addition, the increased use by the private mortgage insurance industry of risk-based pricing systems that establish premium rates based on more attributes than previously considered may result in increased state and/or federal scrutiny of premium rates. The increased use of algorithms, artificial intelligence and data and analytics in the mortgage insurance industry may also lead to additional regulatory scrutiny related to other matters such as discrimination in pricing and underwriting, data privacy and access to insurance.
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A substantial legal liability or a significant regulatory action against us could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. It is possible that we could become subject to future investigations, regulatory actions, lawsuits, or enforcement actions, which could cause us to incur legal costs and, if we were found to have violated any laws or regulations, require us to pay fines and damages, result in injunctions and incur other sanctions, perhaps in material amounts. Increased regulatory scrutiny and any resulting investigations or legal proceedings could result in new legal precedents and industry-wide regulations or practices that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Moreover, even if we ultimately prevail in the litigation, regulatory action or investigation, we could suffer significant reputational harm and incur significant legal expenses, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. We cannot predict the ultimate outcomes of any future investigations, regulatory actions or legal proceedings.
An adverse change in our regulatory requirements could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We are required by certain states and other regulators to maintain certain RTC ratios. In addition, PMIERs include financial requirements for mortgage insurers under which a mortgage insurer’s “Available Assets” (generally only the most liquid assets of an insurer) must meet or exceed “Minimum Required Assets” (which are based on an insurer’s RIF and are calculated from tables of factors with several risk dimensions and are subject to a floor amount). The failure of our insurance subsidiaries to meet their regulatory requirements, and additionally the current PMIERs financial requirements, could limit our ability to write new business. For further discussion of the importance of the current PMIERs financial requirements to our insurance subsidiaries, see “—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition” and “—Inability to maintain sufficient regulatory capital could result in restrictions or prohibitions on our doing business or impact our financial strength ratings which could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
An adverse change in our RTC ratio or other minimum regulatory requirements could cause rating agencies to downgrade our financial strength ratings, which would have an adverse impact on our ability to write and retain business, and could cause regulators to take regulatory or supervisory actions with respect to our business, all of which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and business. For further discussion on the importance of ratings, see “—Risks Relating to Our Business—Adverse rating agency actions have resulted in a loss of business and adversely affected our business, results of operations and financial condition, and future adverse rating agency actions could have a further and more significant adverse impact on us.”
These regulations are principally designed for the protection of policyholders rather than for the benefit of investors. Any proposed or future legislation or NAIC initiatives, if adopted, may be more restrictive on our ability to conduct business than current regulatory requirements or may result in higher costs or increased statutory capital and reserve requirements. Further, because laws and regulations can be complex and sometimes inexact, there is also a risk that any particular regulator’s or enforcement authority’s interpretation of a legal, accounting or reserving issue may change over time to our detriment, or expose us to different or additional regulatory risks. The application of these regulations and guidelines by insurers involves interpretations and judgments that may differ from those of state insurance departments. We cannot provide assurance that such differences of opinion will not result in regulatory, tax or other challenges to the actions we have taken to date. The result of those potential challenges could require us to increase levels of statutory capital and reserves or incur higher operating costs and/or have implications on certain tax positions.
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Inability to maintain sufficient regulatory capital could result in restrictions or prohibitions on our doing business or impact our financial strength ratings which could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
If we fail to maintain the required minimum capital level in a state where we write business, we would generally be required to immediately stop writing new business in the state until we re-establish the required level of capital or receive a waiver of the requirement from the state’s insurance regulator, or until we have established an alternative source of underwriting capacity acceptable to the regulator. As of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, our combined RTC ratio was approximately 12.2:1 and 12.1:1, respectively. Should we exceed required RTC levels in the future, we would seek required regulatory and GSE forbearance and approvals or seek approval for the utilization of alternative insurance vehicles. However, there can be no assurance if, and on what terms, such forbearance and approvals may be obtained.
The NAIC established the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Working Group (the “MGIWG”) to determine and make recommendations to the NAIC’s Financial Condition Committee as to what, if any, changes to make to the solvency and other regulations relating to mortgage guaranty insurers. The MGIWG continues to work on revisions to the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act (the “MGI Model”), revisions to Statement of Statutory Accounting Principles No. 58—Mortgage Guaranty Insurance and the development of a mortgage guaranty supplemental filing. In late 2019 and early 2021, the MGIWG released exposure drafts of the revised MGI Model, including new proposed mortgage guaranty insurance capital requirements for mortgage insurers, and the mortgage guaranty supplemental filing, which currently remains under development. We cannot predict the outcome of this process, whether any state will adopt the amended MGI Model or any of its specific provisions, the effect changes, if any, will have on the mortgage guaranty insurance market generally, or on our business specifically, the additional costs associated with compliance with any such changes, or any changes to our operations that may be necessary to comply, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. We also cannot predict whether other regulatory initiatives will be adopted or what impact, if any, such initiatives, if adopted as laws, may have on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Further, the financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries are significantly influenced by their statutory surplus amounts, statutory contingency reserve amounts and capital adequacy ratios. The statutory capital adequacy ratio is known as the RTC ratio, of which the numerator consists of RIF and the denominator consists of the sum of (i) statutory surplus and (ii) the statutory contingency reserve. In any particular year, statutory surplus amounts, statutory contingency reserve amounts, and the RTC ratio may increase or decrease depending on a variety of factors, most of which are outside of our control, including, but not limited to, the following:
• the amount of statutory income or losses generated by our insurance subsidiaries (which itself is sensitive to equity market and credit market conditions);
• the amount of insurance we onboard;
• the amount of additional capital our insurance subsidiaries must hold to support business growth;
• changes in statutory accounting or reserve requirements applicable to our insurance subsidiaries;
• our ability to access capital markets to provide reserve and surplus relief;
• changes in equity market levels;
• the value of certain fixed-income and equity securities in our investment portfolio;
• changes in the credit ratings of investments held in our portfolio;
• the value of certain derivative instruments;
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• changes in interest rates;
• credit market volatility; and
• changes to the maximum permissible RTC ratio.
Changes in regulations that adversely affect the mortgage insurance markets in which we operate could affect our operations significantly and could reduce the demand for mortgage insurance.
In addition to the general regulatory risks that are described under “—Our business is extensively regulated and changes in regulation may reduce our profitability and limit our growth,” we are also affected by various additional regulations relating particularly to our mortgage insurance operations.
Federal and state regulations affect the scope of our competitors’ operations, which influences the size of the mortgage insurance market and the intensity of the competition. This competition includes not only other private mortgage insurers, but also federal and state governmental and quasi-governmental agencies, principally the FHA and the VA, which are governed by federal regulations. Increases in the maximum loan amount that the FHA can insure, and reductions in the mortgage insurance premiums the FHA charges, including a potential 25 basis point reduction, can reduce the demand for private mortgage insurance. Decreases in the maximum loan amounts the GSEs will purchase or guarantee, increases in GSE fees or decreases in the maximum LTV ratio for loans the GSEs will purchase can also reduce demand for private mortgage insurance. See “—Risks Relating to Our Business—Changes to the charters or practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.” Legislative, regulatory and administrative changes could cause demand for private mortgage insurance to decrease.
Additionally, on December 17, 2020, the FHFA promulgated the Enterprise Capital Framework, which imposes a new capital framework on the GSEs, including risk-based and leverage capital requirement and capital buffers in excess of regulatory minimums that can be drawn down in periods of financial distress. The Enterprise Capital Framework became effective on February 16, 2021. However, the GSEs will not be subject to any requirement under the Enterprise Capital Framework until the applicable compliance date. Compliance with the Enterprise Capital Framework, other than the requirements to maintain a prescribed capital conservation buffer amount (“PCCBA”) and a prescribed leverage buffer amount (“PLBA”), is required on the later of (i) the date of termination of the conservatorship of a GSE and (ii) any later compliance date provided in a consent order or other transition order applicable to such GSE. FHFA contemplates that the compliance dates for the PCCBA and the PLBA will be the date of termination of the conservatorship of a GSE. The Enterprise Capital Framework’s advanced approaches requirements will be delayed until the later of (i) January 1, 2025 and (ii) any later compliance date provided by a transition order applicable to such GSE. The Enterprise Capital Framework significantly increases capital requirements and reduces capital credit on CRT transactions as compared to the previous framework. The final rule could cause the GSEs to increase their guarantee pricing in order to meet the new capital requirements. If the GSEs increase their guarantee pricing in order to meet the higher capital requirements, that increase could have a negative impact on the private mortgage insurance market and our business. Furthermore, higher GSE capital requirements could ultimately lead to increased costs to borrowers for GSE loans, which in turn could shift the market away from the GSEs to the FHA or lender portfolios. Such a shift could result in a smaller market size for private mortgage insurance. This rule could also accelerate the recent diversification of the GSE’s risk transfer programs to encompass a broader array of instruments beyond private for mortgage insurance, which could adversely impact our business. Also in preparation for the end of the FHFA’s conservatorship of the GSEs, the FHFA promulgated a final rule on May 4, 2021, effective July 6, 2021, that requires the GSEs to develop plans that would facilitate their rapid and orderly resolution in the event FHFA is appointed as their receiver.
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As a credit enhancement provider in the residential mortgage lending industry, we are also subject to compliance with or otherwise impacted by various federal and state consumer protection and insurance laws, including RESPA, the Fair Housing Act of 1968 (the “Fair Housing Act”), HOPA, the FCRA and others. Among other things, these laws: (i) prohibit payments for referrals of settlement service business, providing services to lenders for no or reduced fees or payments for services not actually performed; (ii) require cancellation of insurance and refund of unearned premiums under certain circumstances; and (iii) govern the circumstances under which companies may obtain and use consumer credit information. Changes in these laws or regulations, changes in the appropriate regulator’s interpretation of these laws or regulations or heightened enforcement activity could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
CFPB Final Rule
Our results could also be impacted if the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s final rule defining a QM results in a reduction of the size of the origination market or creates incentives to use government mortgage insurance program.
The Dodd-Frank Act established the CFPB to regulate the offering and provision of consumer financial products and services under federal law, including residential mortgages, and generally requires creditors to make a reasonable, good faith determination of a consumer’s ability to repay any consumer credit transaction secured by a dwelling prior to effecting such transaction (the “ATR Requirement”). A subset of mortgages within the ATR Requirement are known as QMs, which generally are defined as loans without certain risky features. The CFPB is authorized to issue the regulations governing a good faith determination; the Dodd-Frank Act, however, provides a statutory presumption of eligibility of loans that satisfy the QM definition. The CFPB’s final rule defining what constitutes a QM (the “QM Rule”) provides that a QM loan exists if, among other factors:
• the term of the loan is less than or equal to 30 years;
• there are no negative amortization, interest only or balloon features;
• the lender properly documents the loan in accordance with the requirements;
• the total “points and fees” do not exceed certain thresholds (generally 3% of the total loan amount); and
• the total DTI Ratio of the borrower does not exceed 43%.
The QM Rule provides a “safe harbor” for QM loans with annual percentage rates (“APRs”) below the threshold of 150 basis points over the Average Prime Offer Rate and a “rebuttable presumption” for QM loans with an APR above that threshold.
The Dodd-Frank Act separately granted statutory authority to the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Administration (“HUD”) (for FHA-insured loans), the VA (for VA-guaranteed loans) and certain other government agency insurance programs to develop their own definitions of a QM in consultation with the CFPB. Under both the FHA’s and the VA’s QM standards, certain loans that would not qualify as QM loans in the conventional market would still be deemed to be QM loans if insured or guaranteed by the FHA and the VA. As a result, lenders may favor the use of FHA-or VA-insurance to achieve the legal protections of making a QM loan through these agencies, even if the same loan could be made at the same or lower cost to the borrower using private mortgage insurance, which could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition. To the extent that the other government agencies adopt their own definitions of a QM loan that are more favorable to lenders and mortgage holders than those applicable to the market in which we operate, our business, results of operations and financial condition may be adversely affected.
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The QM Rule also provides for a second temporary category with more flexible requirements if the loan is eligible to be (i) purchased or guaranteed by the GSEs while they are in conservatorship, which represents the overwhelming majority of our business, or (ii) insured by the FHA, the VA, the Department of Agriculture (the “USDA”) or the Rural Housing Service (“RHS”). The second temporary category still requires that loans satisfy certain criteria, including the requirement that the loans are fully amortizing, have terms of 30 years or less and have points and fees representing 3% or less of the total loan amount. This temporary QM category is known as the “QM Patch.”
On December 29, 2020, the CFPB promulgated two final rules (i) one rule amending the QM Rule (the QM Rule, as amended, the “Amended QM Rule”) and (ii) one rule adding a “seasoning” approach to the QM “safe harbor” (the “Seasoned QM Final Rule”). The effective date of both rules was March 1, 2021, with a mandatory compliance date for the Amended QM Rule of July 1, 2021. On April 27, 2021, the CFPB promulgated a final rule delaying the mandatory compliance date of the Amended QM Rule until October 1, 2022 and noting that the Amended QM Rule and Seasoned QM Final Rule would be reconsidered at a later time. As provided under the final rule, the prior 43% DTI-based QM Rule definition, the new price-based (APOR) definition and the QM Patch will all remain available to lenders for loan applications received prior to October 1, 2022. However, on April 8, 2021, Fannie Mae issued Lender Letter 2021-09 and Freddie Mac issued Bulletin 2021-13 stating that due to the requirements of the PSPAs they would only acquire loans that meet the new price-based (APOR) definition set forth under the Amended QM Rule for applications received on or after July 1, 2021. We believe that loans which previously qualified under the 43% DTI-based QM Rule definition and the QM Patch will continue to qualify under the new price-based (APOR) definition and therefore we expect little impact from the change.
Dodd-Frank Act Risk Retention
The Dodd-Frank Act also requires an originator or issuer to retain a specified percentage of the credit risk exposure on securitized mortgages that do not meet the definition of a qualified residential mortgage (“QRM”).
As required by the Dodd-Frank Act, in 2015 the Federal Banking Agencies, the FHFA, the SEC and HUD adopted a joint final rule implementing the QRM rules that aligns the definition of a QRM with that of a QM. In December 2019, the Federal Banking Agencies initiated a review of certain provisions of the risk retention rule, including the QRM definition. Among other things, the review allows the Federal Banking Agencies to consider the QRM definition in light of any changes to the QM definition under the QM Rule adopted by the CFPB, which would include the final rule promulgated by the CFPB on December 29, 2020. If the QRM definition is changed in a manner that is unfavorable to us, such as to require a large down payment for a loan to qualify as a QRM, without giving consideration to mortgage insurance in computing LTV ratios, the attractiveness of originating and securitizing loans with lower down payments may be reduced, which may adversely affect the future demand for mortgage insurance.
In addition, if international banking standards set forth by the Basel Committee are implemented in the United States, without modification by the Federal Banking Agencies (as defined below), the rules could discourage the use of mortgage insurance in the United States.
Basel III
In 1988, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (the “Basel Committee”), developed the Basel Capital Accord (“Basel I”), which sets out international benchmarks for assessing banks’ capital adequacy requirements. In 2005, the Basel Committee issued an update to Basel I (“Basel II”), which, among other things, sets forth capital treatment of mortgage insurance purchased and held on balance sheet by banks in respect of their origination and securitization activities. Following the financial crisis of 2008, the Basel Committee made further revisions to improve the quality and quantity of capital banking organizations hold through Basel III. The Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) (collectively, the “Federal Banking Agencies”)
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implemented Basel III through the adoption of revisions to their regulatory capital rules (the “Basel III Rules”), which establish minimum RBC and leverage capital requirements for most United States banking organizations (although banking organizations with less than $10 billion in total assets may now choose to comply with an alternative community bank leverage ratio framework established by the Federal Banking Agencies in 2019).
If further revisions to the Basel III Rules increase the capital requirements of banking organizations with respect to the residential mortgages we insure or do not provide sufficiently favorable treatment for the use of mortgage insurance purchased in respect of a bank’s origination and securitization activities it could adversely affect the demand for mortgage insurance. In December 2017, the Basel Committee published final revisions to the Basel III capital framework (the “2017 Basel III Revisions”) that were generally targeted for implementation by each participating country by January 1, 2022. In March 2020, the Basel Committee revised the target date for implementation to January 1, 2023. Under these revisions to the international framework, banks using the standardized approach to determine their credit risk may consider mortgage insurance in calculating the exposure amount for real estate, but will determine the risk-weight for residential mortgages based on the LTV ratio at loan origination, without consideration of mortgage insurance. Under the standardized approach, after the appropriate risk-weight is determined, the existence of mortgage insurance could be considered, but only if the company issuing the insurance has a lower risk-weight than the underlying exposure. Mortgage insurance issued by private companies would not meet this test. Therefore, under the 2017 Basel III Revisions, mortgage insurance could not mitigate credit and lower the capital charge under the standardized approach. It is possible that the Federal Banking Agencies could determine that their current capital rules are at least as stringent as the 2017 Basel III Revisions, in which case no change would be mandated. However, if the Federal Banking Agencies decide to implement the 2017 Basel III Revisions as specifically drafted by the Basel Committee, mortgage insurance would not lower the LTV ratio of residential loans for capital purposes, and therefore may decrease the demand for mortgage insurance.
Further, it is possible (but not mandated by the 2017 Basel III Revisions) that the Federal Banking Agencies and the GSEs might likewise discontinue taking mortgage insurance into account when determining a mortgage’s LTV ratio for prudential (non-capital) purposes.
Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent
Our Parent is able to exert significant influence over us and our corporate decisions.
Our Parent continues to beneficially own at least 80% of our common stock. As a result, our Parent controls all matters requiring a stockholder vote, including: the election of directors; mergers, consolidations and acquisitions; the sale of all or substantially all of our assets and other decisions affecting our capital structure; the amendment of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and our amended and restated bylaws; and our winding up and dissolution. This concentration of ownership may delay, deter or prevent acts that would be favored by our other stockholders. The interests of our Parent may not always coincide with our interests or the interests of our other stockholders. This concentration of ownership may also have the effect of delaying, preventing or deterring a change in control of us. Our Parent’s high ownership percentage risk may also impact our stock price as price volatility may be greater if the public float and trading volume of shares of our common stock are low.
Also, our Parent may seek to cause us to take courses of action that, in its judgment, could enhance its investment in us, but which might involve risks to our other stockholders or adversely affect us or our other stockholders. We also have entered into a registration rights agreement with our Parent, which will give our Parent a right, subject to certain conditions, to require us to register the sale of our common stock beneficially owned by our Parent.
So long as our Parent continues to beneficially own more than 50% of our outstanding common stock, our Parent will have certain rights, including the right to nominate the majority of our directors. Certain of these directors may also be officers or employees of our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other
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subsidiaries. Because of their current or former positions with our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries, these directors, as well as a number of our officers, own substantial amounts of our Parent’s common stock and options to purchase our Parent’s common stock. Ownership interests of our directors or officers in our Parent’s common stock, or service of certain of our directors as officers of our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries, may create, or may create the appearance of, conflicts of interest when such director or officer is faced with a decision that could have different implications for the two companies. For example, potential conflicts could arise regarding the desirability of acquisition opportunities, business plans, employee retention or recruiting, capital management or our dividend policy.
In addition, we have entered into agreements with our Parent and its subsidiaries that provide a framework for our ongoing relationship, including a Master Agreement, a registration rights agreement, a Shared Services Agreement, an intellectual property cross license agreement and a transitional trademark license agreement. Disagreements regarding the rights and obligations of our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries or us under each of these agreements or any renegotiation of their terms could create conflicts of interest for certain of these directors and officers, as well as actual disputes that may be resolved in a manner unfavorable to us and our other stockholders. Interruptions to or problems with services provided under the Shared Services Agreement could result in conflicts between us and our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries that increase our costs both for the processing of business and the potential remediation of disputes. Although we believe these agreements contain commercially reasonable terms, the terms of these agreements may later prove not to be in the best interests of our future stockholders or may contain terms less favorable than those we could obtain from third parties. In addition, certain of our officers negotiating these agreements may appear to have conflicts of interest as a result of their ownership of our Parent’s common stock and holdings of our Parent’s equity awards.
The terms of our arrangements with our Parent may be more favorable than we will be able to obtain from an unaffiliated third party.
Our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries currently performs or supports many important corporate functions for our operation, including but not limited to, investment management, information technology services and certain administrative services (such as finance, human resources, employee benefit administration and legal). On August 4, 2021, we entered into the Shared Services Agreement with our Parent that provides us continued access to certain of these services. We negotiated these arrangements with our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries in the context of a parent-subsidiary relationship. We cannot assure you that these services will be sustained at the same levels or that we would be able to replace such services in a timely manner or on comparable terms.
Specific services provided under the Shared Services Agreement may be terminated by either party for convenience with at least one hundred eighty (180) days’ prior written notice to the other party. If our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries cease to provide services pursuant to the terms of our existing agreements, our costs of procuring services from third parties may increase. As a standalone company, we may be unable to obtain such goods and services at comparable prices or on terms as favorable as those obtained prior to the IPO, either of which could adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition. Other agreements with our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries also govern the relationship between us and our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries following the IPO and provide for the allocation of certain expenses. They also contain terms and provisions that may be more favorable than terms and provisions we might have obtained in arm’s length negotiations with unaffiliated third parties. These operational risks could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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We could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.
We remain a part of our Parent’s family of businesses. Therefore, our customers, third-party service providers, credit providers and other persons may continue to associate us with our Parent’s reputation and services, as well as its capital base and financial strength. Our Parent has substantial leverage and depends on us as a source of liquidity.
Our Parent continues to pursue its overall strategy with a focus on improving business performance, reducing financial leverage and increasing financial and strategic flexibility across the organization. Our Parent’s strategy includes maximizing its opportunities in its mortgage insurance businesses and stabilizing its United States life insurance businesses. However, our Parent cannot be sure it will be able to successfully execute on any of its strategic plans to effectively address its current business challenges (including with respect to addressing its debt maturities and other near-term liabilities and financial obligations, reducing costs, stabilizing its United States life insurance businesses without additional capital contributions, overall capital and ratings), including as a result of:
• an inability to attract buyers for any businesses or other assets our Parent may seek to sell, or securities it may seek to issue, in each case, in a timely manner and on anticipated terms;
• an inability to increase the capital needed in our Parent’s businesses in a timely manner and on anticipated terms, including through improved business performance, reinsurance or similar transactions, asset sales, debt issuances, securities offerings or otherwise, in each case as and when required;
• a failure to obtain any required regulatory, stockholder, noteholder approvals and/or other third-party approvals or consents for such alternative strategic plans;
• our Parent’s challenges changing or being more costly or difficult to successfully address than currently anticipated or the benefits achieved being less than anticipated;
• an inability to achieve anticipated cost-savings in a timely manner; and
• adverse tax or accounting charges.
We also rely on our Parent and/or certain of our Parent’s subsidiaries to provide certain investment management, information technology services and certain administrative services (such as finance, human resources, employee benefit administration and legal). If our Parent is unable or unwilling to provide such services in the future, we may be unable to provide such services ourselves or we may have to incur additional expenditures to obtain such services from another provider. Additionally, we may be subject to reputational harm if our Parent or any of its affiliates, previously, or in the future, among other things, becomes subject to litigation or otherwise damages its reputation or business prospects. Any of these events could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our Parent’s challenges in its long-term care insurance business, or other financial or operational difficulties, may also be attributed to us by investors and may have an adverse effect on the perception of our common stock as an investment. Additionally, any downgrade or negative outlook of our Parent’s ratings may negatively impact our ratings by certain ratings agencies whose rating protocols and group rating methodologies require adverse ratings actions in cases of parent or sister company rating downgrades or adverse rating actions. A downgrade in our ratings may adversely affect our relationship with current and potential customers as well as our ability to write new business and access capital on favorable terms. See “—Risks Relating to Our Business—Adverse rating agency actions have resulted in a loss of business and adversely affected our business, results of operations and financial condition, and future adverse rating agency actions could have a further and more significant adverse impact on us.”
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Our Parent as of December 31, 2021 had $1.2 billion of long term borrowings outstanding, excluding the amount held by EHI. Because we are not responsible for our Parent’s indebtedness and we are currently predominately capitalized and funded independently of our Parent, if our Parent is unable to raise sufficient proceeds to satisfy its obligations as they become due, or our Parent were to default on its outstanding indebtedness, or our Parent were to become subject to insolvency or other similar proceedings, we would not expect such events to result directly in an event of default or an insolvency event for us. However, any such event or the risk (or perceived risk) that any such proceedings could involve us, could negatively affect our ratings, our reputation, our business, our liquidity and results of operations, and could therefore have a negative effect on our ability to repay our own indebtedness, including the 2025 Senior Notes, or otherwise could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.
Risks Relating to Taxation
Changes in tax laws could have a material adverse effect on our business, cash flows, results of operations or financial condition.
Various tax regulations require the preparation of complex computations, significant judgments and estimates in interpreting their respective provisions. These aspects are inherently difficult to interpret and apply, and the Treasury Department, the Internal Revenue Service (the “IRS”) and other standard-setting bodies could interpret these aspects differently than us. In addition, these departments could issue guidance on how provisions of tax regulations should be applied or administered that could be different from our interpretation. Therefore, even though we believe we have applied tax laws and regulations appropriately in our financial statements it is possible that we have interpreted the rules differently and therefore applied the impacts to our financial results in a way that differs from those of these authoritative bodies. Likewise, changes in tax laws or regulations may be proposed or enacted that could adversely affect our overall tax liability and results of operations or financial condition. Changes in tax laws and regulations that impact our customers and counterparties or the economy may also impact our results of operations and financial condition. There can be no assurance that changes in tax laws or regulations will not materially and/or adversely affect our effective tax rate, tax payments, results of operations and financial condition.
We are subject to regular review and audit by tax authorities as well as subject to the prospective and retrospective effects of changing tax regulations and legislation. The ultimate tax outcome may materially differ from the tax amounts recorded in our consolidated financial statements and may materially affect our income tax provision, net income (loss), cash flows or operations.
There was no U.S. federal income tax-related legislation or administrative guidance issued in 2021 or 2020 that had a significant impact on our results of operations or financial condition. We will continue to monitor proposed tax legislation, particularly the proposed Build Back Better Act (“BBBA”) currently being considered by Congress. As currently drafted, we do not expect the BBBA to have a significant impact on our results of operations or financial condition.
We are jointly and severally liable for any U.S. federal income taxes owed by the Genworth Consolidated Group for taxable periods in which we are a member of the group.
We currently join in the filing of a United States consolidated income tax return of which our Parent is the common parent (the “Genworth Consolidated Group”) with our other insurance and non-insurance affiliates. As a result, we are jointly and severally liable for the U.S. federal income taxes owed by the group for periods in which we are a member of the group. Accordingly, for any taxable periods for which we are included in the Genworth Consolidated Group for U.S. federal income tax purposes, we could be liable in the event that any income tax liability was incurred but was not discharged by the Parent or any other member of the group. Our Parent, however, will be responsible for any taxes for which we are jointly and severally liable solely by reason of filing a combined, consolidated or unitary return with our Parent under the Tax Allocation Agreement.
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Our Parent’s continued ownership of at least 80% of our common stock may limit our ability to raise additional capital by issuing common stock to third parties.
We are currently a member of the Genworth Consolidated Group. As a consequence, we will pay our Parent our share of the consolidated income tax liability when we have taxable income or receive benefit for losses we contribute and which are utilized to the Genworth Consolidated Group.
Our Parent and certain of its non-insurance subsidiaries expect to incur material federal income tax deductions in the future, primarily related to interest expense on third-party debt and expenses in respect of stewardship with respect to the enterprise and subsidiary operations. If we were to cease to be a member of the Genworth Consolidated Group, our income could no longer offset tax losses of other members of the Genworth Consolidated Group, and the Genworth Consolidated Group may not have sufficient taxable income from other operations to fully absorb the anticipated tax deductions of our Parent and its non-insurance subsidiaries, reducing the value of such tax deductions to our Parent. Given that our Parent expects to incur federal income tax deductions for the foreseeable future, our Parent may find it beneficial to retain at least 80% ownership of our common stock for the foreseeable future.
As a condition to us remaining a member of the Genworth Consolidated Group, our Parent generally must continue to own an amount of our stock which possesses at least 80% of the total voting power of our stock and has a value equal to at least 80% of the total value of our stock. For these purposes, the term “stock” does not include any stock that (i) is not entitled to vote; (ii) is limited and preferred as to dividends and does not participate in corporate growth to any significant extent; (iii) has redemption and liquidation rights which do not exceed the issue price of such stock (except for a reasonable redemption or liquidation premium) and (iv) is not convertible into another class of stock. Accordingly, while we will have the ability to raise additional capital through certain preferred stock or other means, we will be limited in our ability to raise additional capital by issuing common stock to third parties without leaving our Parent’s consolidated group, which our Parent may not permit. We may also be limited pursuant to restrictions imposed by insurance regulators, GSEs and any limitations under intercompany agreements. This limitation on our ability to raise additional capital through the issuance of common stock could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
If we leave the Genworth Consolidated Group, we may be required to make payments under the Tax Allocation Agreement and may be required to pay more income tax in the future.
We are currently a member of the Genworth Consolidated Group, and we expect to continue to be a member as long as our Parent continues to own an amount of our stock which possesses at least 80% of the total voting power of our stock, and it has a value equal to at least 80% of the total value of our stock. See “—Our Parent’s continued ownership of 80% of our common stock may limit our ability to raise additional capital by issuing common stock to third parties”. Our Parent may cease to own such amount of stock in the future and in that event, we would cease to be a member of the Genworth Consolidated Group.
In the event we were to cease being a member of the Genworth Consolidated Group, we may be required to make a payment to our Parent of $25.2 million for tax benefits related to foreign tax credits for which we received credit under the Tax Allocation Agreement, but which had not been utilized by the Genworth Consolidated Group at such time. These tax benefits would be available to reduce our tax liabilities in periods after we leave the Genworth Consolidated Group, subject to any applicable limitation that may apply with respect to such period or tax benefit. In addition, the tax consequences of any transaction between us and other members of the Genworth Consolidated Group which were deferred under the consolidated return rules would likely be triggered, which could require us to make additional payments under the Tax Allocation Agreement.
In addition, in the event we were to cease being a member of the Genworth Consolidated Group, we and our Parent would be subject to the application of the “unified loss rules”, which may require us to pay more income tax in the future. Subject to certain exceptions, if our Parent has higher tax basis in our
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shares than the fair market value of our shares at the time we left the Genworth Consolidated Group, these rules could require us to reduce certain of our tax attributes, including the tax basis in our assets. If such reduction occurred, we could be required to pay more income tax in the future. Our Parent could, at such time, elect to reduce its tax basis in our shares at such time to prevent such attribute reduction, although our Parent has not committed to do so.
At this time, we do not expect that the unified loss rules would cause a material reduction in the tax basis of our assets if we were to depart the Genworth Consolidated Group. The application of the unified loss rules are complex, however, and will depend upon a number of factual determinations that must be made at the time of such departure. Accordingly, no guarantee can be given that we would not be required to pay more income tax as a result of the application of the unified loss rules upon a deconsolidation. Such increased tax obligations could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
General Risk Factors
We are a holding company, and our only material assets are our equity interests in our subsidiaries. As a consequence, we depend on the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends and make other payments and distributions to us in order to meet our obligations.
We are a holding company with limited direct business operations. Our primary subsidiaries are insurance companies that own substantially all of our assets and conduct substantially all of our operations. Dividends from our subsidiaries and permitted payments to us under arrangements with our subsidiaries are our principal sources of cash to meet our obligations. These obligations include operating expenses and interest and principal on current and any future borrowings. Our subsidiaries may not be able to, or may not be permitted by regulators to, pay dividends or make distributions to enable us to meet our obligations. Each subsidiary is a distinct legal entity and legal and contractual restrictions may also limit our ability to obtain cash from our subsidiaries. If the cash we receive from our subsidiaries pursuant to dividends and other arrangements is insufficient to fund any of these obligations, or if a subsidiary is unable or unwilling to pay future dividends or distributions to us to meet our obligations, we may be required to raise cash through, among other things, incurring debt (including convertible or exchangeable debt), selling assets or issuing equity.
The payment of dividends and other distributions by our insurance subsidiaries is dependent on, among other things, their financial condition and operating performance, capital preservation as a result of the uncertainty regarding the impact of COVID-19, corporate law restrictions, insurance laws and regulations and maintaining adequate capital to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, including recent restrictions imposed by the GSEs on our business. In general, dividends in excess of prescribed limits are deemed “extraordinary” and require affirmative approval from an insurer’s domiciliary department of insurance. In addition, insurance regulators and GSEs may prohibit the payment of ordinary dividends and distributions, or other payments by the insurance subsidiaries (such as a payment under an agreement or for employee or other services, including expense reimbursements) if they determine that such payment could be adverse to policyholders. Courts typically grant regulators significant deference when considering challenges of an insurance company to a determination by insurance regulators to grant or withhold approvals with respect to dividends and other distributions. Accordingly, there can be no assurances that insurance regulators will approve payment of a dividend or distribution or other transfers of assets to us by our insurance subsidiaries. More recently, the GSEs temporarily amended PMIERs as a result of COVID-19, requiring our approved insurer, GMICO, to obtain the GSEs’ prior written consent before paying any dividends, pledging or transferring assets to an affiliate or entering into any new, or altering any existing, arrangements under tax sharing and intercompany expense-sharing arrangements should GMICO fail to meet certain PMIERs minimum required asset buffers (150% in the third quarter of 2021 and 115% in the fourth quarter of 2021). See “—Risks Relating to Our Business—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write
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new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
Our liquidity and capital position are highly dependent on the performance of our subsidiaries and their ability to pay future dividends and distributions to us as anticipated. The evaluation of future dividend sources and our overall liquidity plans are subject to current and future market conditions and the economic recovery from COVID-19, among other factors, which are subject to change.
Our business could be adversely impacted from deficiencies in our disclosure controls and procedures or internal control over financial reporting.
The design and effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting may not prevent all errors, misstatements or misrepresentations, particularly given our current remote work environment and the increased risk that our employees may be unable to properly perform and execute controls. While management continually reviews the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting, there can be no guarantee that our internal control over financial reporting will be effective in accomplishing all control objectives all of the time. Any material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting or any other failure to maintain effective disclosure controls and procedures could result in material errors or restatements in our historical financial statements or untimely filings, which could cause investors to lose confidence in our reported financial information, and a decline in our share price.
We may suffer losses in connection with future litigation and regulatory proceedings or other actions.
From time to time, we may become subject to various legal and regulatory proceedings related to our business. Litigation and regulatory proceedings may result in financial losses and harm our reputation. We face the risk of litigation and regulatory proceedings or other actions in the ordinary course of operating our business, including class action lawsuits. We are also subject to litigation arising out of our general business activities such as our contractual and employment relationships. Due to the inherent uncertainties of litigation and regulatory proceedings, we cannot determine with certainty the ultimate outcome of any such litigation or proceedings. A substantial legal liability or injunction or a significant regulatory action against us could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Moreover, even if we ultimately prevail in the litigation, regulatory proceeding or other action, we could suffer significant reputational harm and incur significant legal expenses and such litigation may divert management’s attention and resources, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.
Changes in accounting and reporting standards issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or other standard-setting bodies and insurance regulators could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our financial statements are subject to the application of U.S. GAAP, which is periodically revised. Accordingly, from time to time, we are required to adopt new or revised accounting standards issued by recognized authoritative bodies, including the Financial Accounting Standards Board (the “FASB”). It is possible that future accounting and reporting standards we are required to adopt could change the current accounting treatment that we apply to our financial statements, including impacting the calculation of net earnings, stockholders’ equity and other relevant financial statement line items. The impact of changes in accounting and reporting standards, particularly those that apply to insurance companies, cannot be predicted, but such changes could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Such changes may also cause additional volatility in reported earnings, decrease the understandability of our financial results and affect the comparability of our reported results with the results of others. In addition, we may be unable to implement new accounting guidance or other proposals by the adoption date which would materially adversely impact our business.
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Furthermore, the required adoption of future accounting and reporting standards could require us to make significant changes to systems and use additional resources, which may result in significant costs.
If we are unable to on-board, retain, attract and motivate qualified employees or senior management, our business, results of operations and financial condition may be adversely impacted.
Our success is largely dependent on our ability to on-board, retain, attract and motivate qualified employees and senior management. We face intense competition in our industry and local job market for key employees with demonstrated ability, including actuarial, finance, legal, investment, risk, compliance, information technology and other professionals. We also face natural or man-made disasters or pandemics that could at times impact our ability to on-board new hires. See “—The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or public health emergencies, including pandemics and disasters caused or exacerbated by climate change, could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.” Furthermore, as the future of work evolves and work arrangements such as a remote work environment become more flexible and commonplace, our ability to compete for qualified employees could be further challenged. A remote work environment could expand competition among employers and may put us at a disadvantage if we are unable or unwilling to implement certain of these policies. We cannot be sure we will be able to on-board, attract, retain and motivate the desired workforce, and our failure to do so could have a material adverse effect on business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, we may not be able to meet regulatory requirements relating to required expertise in various professional positions.
Managing key employee succession and retention is also critical to our success. We would be adversely affected if we fail to plan adequately for the succession of our senior management and other key employees. While we have succession plans and long-term compensation plans, including retention programs, designed to retain our employees, our succession plans may not operate effectively and our compensation plans cannot guarantee that the services of these employees will continue to be available to us.
Our computer systems may fail or be compromised, and unanticipated problems could materially adversely impact our disaster recovery systems and business continuity plans, which could damage our reputation, impair our ability to conduct business effectively and materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial conditions.
Our business is highly dependent upon the effective operation of our computer systems. We also have arrangements in place with our partners and other third-party service providers through which we share and receive information, including the submission of new mortgage insurance applications. We also rely on these systems throughout our business for a variety of functions, including processing claims, providing information to customers, performing actuarial analyses and maintaining financial records. Despite the implementation of security and back-up measures, our computer systems and those of our partners and third-party service providers have been and may be in the future vulnerable to system failures, physical or electronic intrusions, computer viruses or other attacks, programming errors and similar disruptive problems. The failure of these systems for any reason could cause significant interruptions to our operations, which could result in a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Technology continues to expand and plays an ever-increasing role in our business. While it is our goal to safeguard information assets from physical theft and cybersecurity threats, there can be no assurance that our information security will detect and protect information assets from these ever-increasing risks. Information assets include both information itself in the form of computer data, written materials, knowledge and supporting processes, and the information technology systems, networks, other electronic devices and storage media used to store, process, retrieve and transmit that information. As more information is used and shared by our employees, customers and suppliers, both within and outside our company, cybersecurity threats become expansive in nature. Confidentiality, integrity and availability
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of information are essential to maintaining our reputation, legal position and ability to conduct our operations. Although we have implemented controls and continue to train our employees, a cybersecurity event could still occur that would cause damage to our reputation with our customers and other stakeholders and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “—We collect, process, store, share, disclose and use consumer information and other data, and an actual or perceived failure to protect such information and data or respect users’ privacy could damage our reputation and brand and adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
We rely on technologies to provide services to our customers. Customers require us to provide and service our mortgage insurance products in a secure manner, either electronically through our internet website or through direct electronic data transmissions. Accordingly, we invest resources in establishing and maintaining electronic connectivity with customers and, more generally, in technological advancements. In addition, if our information technology systems are inferior to our competitors’, existing and potential customers may choose our competitors’ products over ours. Our business would be negatively impacted if we are unable to enhance our platform when necessary to support our primary business functions, including to match or exceed the technological capabilities of our competitors. We cannot predict with certainty the cost of maintaining and improving our platform, but failure to make necessary improvements and any significant shortfall in any technology enhancements or negative variance in the timeline in which system enhancements are delivered could have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In addition, a natural or man-made disaster or a pandemic could disrupt public and private infrastructure, including our information technology systems. See “—The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or public health emergencies, including pandemics and disasters caused or exacerbated by climate change, could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.” Unanticipated problems with, or failures of, our disaster recovery systems and business continuity plans could have a material adverse impact on our ability to conduct business and on our results of operations and financial condition. Furthermore, if a significant number of our employees were unavailable in the event of a disaster or a pandemic, our ability to effectively conduct business could be severely compromised. The failure of our disaster recovery systems and business continuity plans could adversely impact our profitability and our business.
The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or public health emergencies, including pandemics and disasters caused or exacerbated by climate change, could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We are exposed to various risks arising out of natural and man-made disasters and public health emergencies, including earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, wildfires, tornadoes, other extreme weather events, acts of terrorism, military actions and pandemics, similar to COVID-19. The frequency and severity of extreme weather events and natural disasters may be increased by the effects of climate change, which is resulting in an increase in average global temperatures and rising sea levels. While mortgage insurance does not cover property damage, a natural or man-made disaster or public health emergency, such as a pandemic, could disrupt our computer systems and our ability to conduct or process business (including as a result of widespread absences of our employees due to exposure to the virus) as well as lead to higher delinquency rates as borrowers who are affected by the disaster may be unable to meet their contractual obligations, such as mortgage payments on loans insured under our mortgage insurance coverage. A natural or man-made disaster or a public health emergency could trigger an economic downturn in the areas directly or indirectly affected by the disaster. While it is uncertain the extent to which such events may impact our business, the consequences of these events and actions taken by governmental authorities, the GSEs, our customers or others in connection therewith could lead to disruption of the economy, which may erode consumer and investor confidence levels or lead to increased volatility in the financial markets. These consequences could, among other things, result in an adverse effect on home prices in those areas or higher unemployment, which could result in increased loss experience. See “—The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has and could continue to adversely impact
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our business, results of operations and financial condition.” and “—A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.” A natural or man-made disaster or a pandemic/ public health emergency could also disrupt public and private infrastructure, including communications and financial services, any of which could disrupt our normal business operations, and could adversely affect the value of the assets in our investment portfolio if it affects companies’ ability to pay principal or interest on their securities or the value of the underlying collateral of structured securities.
Natural or man-made disasters or pandemics or public health emergencies could also disrupt the operations of our counterparties or result in increased prices for the products and services they provide to us, which could lead to increased reinsurance rates, less favorable terms and conditions and reduced availability of reinsurance. This may cause us to retain more risk than we otherwise would retain and could negatively affect our compliance with the financial requirements of the PMIERs. The PMIERs require us to maintain significantly more “Minimum Required Assets” for delinquent loans than for performing loans; however, the increase in Minimum Required Assets is not as great for certain delinquent loans in areas that FEMA has declared major disaster areas. For example, in response to COVID-19, the GSEs made temporary revisions to PMIERs in the PMIERs Amendment, providing relief on the risk-based required asset amount factor for certain non-performing loans impacted by a COVID-19 hardship. See “—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.” An increase in delinquency notices resulting from a natural or man-made disaster or a pandemic/ public health emergency may result in an increase in “Minimum Required Assets” and a decrease in the level of our excess “Available Assets” that is discussed in our risk factor titled “—Risks Relating to Regulatory Matters—An adverse change in our regulatory requirements could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
Provisions of state corporate and state insurance laws, of PMIERs and of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and our amended and restated bylaws may prevent or delay an acquisition of us, which could decrease the trading price of our common stock.
State laws, PMIERs and provisions of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and our amended and restated bylaws may delay, deter, prevent, or render more difficult a takeover attempt that our stockholders might consider in their best interests. For example, such laws or provisions may prevent our stockholders from receiving the benefit from any premium to the market price of our common stock offered by a bidder in a takeover context. Even in the absence of a takeover attempt, the existence of these provisions may adversely affect the prevailing market price of our common stock if they are viewed as discouraging takeover attempts in the future.
The insurance laws and regulations of the various states in which our insurance subsidiaries are organized may delay or impede a business combination involving our company. State insurance laws prohibit an entity from acquiring control of an insurance company without the prior approval of the domestic insurance regulator. Under most states’ statutes, an entity is presumed to have control of an insurance company if it owns, directly or indirectly, 10% or more of the voting stock of that insurance company or its parent company. In addition, PMIERs may delay or impede a business combination or change of control involving our company. PMIERs requires us to obtain the prior written approval of the GSEs before we permit a material change in, or acquisition of, control or beneficial ownership of our company or make changes to our corporate or legal structure. These restrictions may delay, deter, or prevent a potential merger or sale of our company, even if our board of directors decides that it is in the best interests of stockholders for us to merge or be sold. These restrictions also may delay sales by us or acquisitions by third parties of our insurance subsidiaries.
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and bylaws include provisions that may have anti-takeover effects, such as prohibiting stockholders from calling special meetings of our stockholders
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and, from and after such time as our Parent ceases to beneficially own more than 50% of our outstanding common stock, from acting by written consent.
We are a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq rules and we qualify for exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements.
Our Parent beneficially owns over 80% of our outstanding common stock. GHI is our direct parent and is a wholly owned subsidiary of our Parent. Because our Parent controls more than a majority of the total voting power of our common stock following this offering, we are a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq rules. Under these rules, a company of which more than 50% of the voting power is held by another person or group of persons acting together is a “controlled company” and may elect not to comply with certain stock exchange rules regarding corporate governance, including:
a. the requirement that a majority of its board of directors consist of independent directors;
b. the requirement that its director nominees be selected or recommended for the board’s selection by a majority of the board’s independent directors in a vote in which only independent directors participate or by a nominating committee comprised entirely of independent directors, in either case, with a formal written charter or board resolutions, as applicable, addressing the nominations process and such related matters as may be required under the federal securities laws; and
c. the requirement that its compensation committee be comprised entirely of independent directors with a written charter addressing the committee’s purpose and responsibilities.
We do not rely on the exemptions to the requirements that a majority of our directors be independent and our nominating and corporate governance committee be comprised of entirely independent directors. Our board of directors consists of a majority of independent directors and our nominating and corporate governance committee is comprised of entirely independent directors. We, however, elected not to comply with the other requirement set forth above that the compensation committee be comprised entirely of independent directors. For as long as our Parent continues to beneficially own more than 50% of our outstanding common stock, our Parent generally will be able to determine the outcome of many corporate actions requiring stockholder approval, including the election of directors and the amendment of our certificate of incorporation and bylaws. In addition, under the provisions of the Master Agreement that we entered into with our Parent, our Parent has consent rights with respect to certain corporate and business activities that we may undertake, including during periods where Parent holds less than a majority of our common stock. Accordingly, you may not have the same protections afforded to stockholders of companies that are subject to all of the Nasdaq rules regarding corporate governance.
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation contains exclusive forum provisions, which could limit our stockholders’ ability to choose the judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors, officers or employees.
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation provides that, unless we consent in writing to the selection of an alternative forum, the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware shall be the sole and exclusive forum for (i) any derivative action or proceeding brought on our behalf, (ii) any action asserting a claim of breach of a duty (including any fiduciary duty) owed by any of our current or former directors, officers, stockholders, employees or agents to us or our stockholders, (iii) any action asserting a claim against us or any of our current or former directors, officers, stockholders, employees or agents arising out of or relating to any provision of the Delaware General Corporation Law (“DGCL”) or our amended and restated certificate of incorporation or our amended and restated bylaws (each, as in effect from time to time), or (iv) any action asserting a claim against us or any of our current or former directors, officers, stockholders, employees or agents governed by the internal affairs doctrine of the State of Delaware; provided, however, that, in the event that the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware lacks subject matter jurisdiction over any such action or proceeding, the sole and exclusive forum for such action or proceeding shall be another state or federal court located within the State of Delaware, in each such case, unless the Court of Chancery (or such other state or federal court located within the State of
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Delaware, as applicable) has dismissed a prior action by the same plaintiff asserting the same claims because such court lacked personal jurisdiction over an indispensable party named as a defendant therein. Unless we consent in writing to the selection of an alternative forum, the federal district courts of the United States of America shall, to the fullest extent permitted by law, be the sole and exclusive forum for the resolution of any complaint asserting a cause of action arising under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). This exclusive forum provision does not preclude or contract the scope of exclusive federal or concurrent jurisdiction for any actions brought under the Securities Act. This exclusive forum provision does not apply to actions arising under the Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”). Our exclusive forum provision does not relieve us of our duties to comply with the federal securities laws and the rules and regulations thereunder, and our stockholders are not deemed to have waived our compliance with these laws, rules and regulations.
Any person or entity purchasing or otherwise acquiring or holding any interest in any of our securities shall be deemed to have notice of and consented to this provision. This exclusive-forum provision may limit a stockholder’s ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum of its choosing for disputes with us or our directors, officers or other employees, which may discourage lawsuits against us and our directors, officers and other employees. If a court were to find the exclusive-forum provision in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation to be inapplicable or unenforceable in an action, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving the dispute in other jurisdictions, which could harm our results of operations.
Item 1B. Unresolved Staff Comments
None.