Max pain // Cboe delayed data · as of Sep 21, 11:24 PM ET

TGT max pain

Spot (delayed)$157.71
Max pain · Fri, Oct 16$145-8.1% vs spot
Expected move (ATM straddle)±$9.58±6.1% by Fri, Oct 16
Put/Call OI0.8723K puts / 26K calls
Call wall$130largest call OI
Put wall$140largest put OI
IV3029.0%30-day implied vol
Net GEX+$729Kper 1% move · flip ≈ $130
Earnings · expectedWed, Nov 18usually before the open

Event risk before this expiration: Jobs report Fri, Oct 2 · CPI release Wed, Oct 14 — macro releases historically overwhelm pinning effects; max pain reads weakest in event weeks.

Max pain levels

ExpiryMax painvs spotDTE
Fri, Sep 25$157.5-0.1%4d
Fri, Oct 2$157.5-0.1%11d
Fri, Oct 9$160+1.5%18d
Fri, Oct 16$145-8.1%25d
Fri, Oct 23$147-6.8%32d
Fri, Oct 30$152.5-3.3%39d
Fri, Nov 20$145-8.1%60d← 1st expiry after earnings (Wed, Nov 18)
Fri, Dec 18$110-30.3%88d

The writer-loss curve — where max pain comes from

spot1456088116144172200$182M$0
■ put-side pain■ call-side painTotal payout option writers would owe at each settle price (both sides, all open interest, ×100 shares) — low settles hurt put writers, high settles hurt call writers. The minimum — 145 — is the max pain price.

Open interest by strike · Fri, Oct 16

spot14560851101351601855K5K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)TGT open contracts per strike for Fri, Oct 16.

Open-interest change — building vs unwinding

Needs two observed snapshot days for this expiration — the comparison appears automatically once the next weekday snapshot lands. We diff real observations only; nothing is estimated.

Volume by strike · Fri, Oct 16

spot1456085110135160185143143
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Today's traded contracts per strike (delayed).

Implied volatility by strike · Fri, Oct 16

spot80104128152176200104%28%
— call IV— put IVATM ≈ 28.9% · Quoted strikes only; illiquid wings with junk fits are dropped, not smoothed.

Gamma exposure by strike · Fri, Oct 16

spotflip 13080105130155180+$1.9M$1.9M
Net dealer gamma per strike, in dollars per 1% move, assuming the standard convention (dealers long calls, short puts) — an assumption, not an observation. Above the amber flip level hedging tends to dampen moves; below it, to amplify them.

Greeks by strike · Fri, Oct 16

Call ΔCall ΘStrikeΓVegaPut ΘPut Δ
0.99-0.001250.00170.01-0.01-0.01
0.98-0.011300.00290.02-0.01-0.02
0.97-0.021350.00530.03-0.02-0.03
0.93-0.031400.00970.05-0.03-0.07
0.87-0.051450.01660.09-0.05-0.13
0.77-0.071500.02490.13-0.08-0.24
0.62-0.091550.03150.16-0.09-0.38
0.46-0.091600.03320.16-0.10-0.55
0.30-0.081650.02940.14-0.08-0.71
0.18-0.061700.02220.11-0.06-0.83
0.10-0.041750.01470.07-0.04-0.92
0.06-0.031800.00900.05-0.03-0.97
0.03-0.021850.00530.03-0.02-1.00
0.02-0.011900.00310.02-0.02-1.00
0.01-0.011950.00190.01-0.02-1.00

Quoted contract greeks from the delayed feed (not modeled here); the highlighted row is nearest to spot. Showing 15 strikes around the money — all 29 are in the CSV. Δ per $1 of underlying · Θ per day · vega per IV point.

Stacked — layer the expirations

spot120138145155172.51902K0
Call open interest per strike, stacked across the checked expirations — each color is one expiry. Strikes are pruned to the liquid center of each chain.

All expirations combined — total open interest

spot459513614616519013K13K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Every expiration combined: 192K call contracts, 179K put contracts open.

Reading this honestly

Max pain is arithmetic, not prophecy: the settle price that would minimize what option writers pay out at expiration, computed from open interest alone. Prices sometimes gravitate toward heavy strikes into expiry — dealer hedging is a real flow — but the evidence that max pain predicts settlement better than chance is mixed, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Use it as a map of where positioning is stacked, next to the fundamentals and the earnings calendar, not as a target.

Data: Cboe delayed public feed (~15 minutes), refreshed here about every 15 minutes. Open interest itself updates once daily, before the open. Educational information, not investment advice.

Keep going: TGT workspace · max pain, explained in full · options profit calculator · GEX, defined · pin risk