Max pain // Cboe delayed data · as of Sep 21, 11:24 PM ET

TGT max pain

Spot (delayed)$157.71
Max pain · Fri, Oct 2$157.5-0.1% vs spot
Expected move (ATM straddle)±$6.36±4.0% by Fri, Oct 2
Put/Call OI0.391K puts / 3K calls
Call wall$160largest call OI
Put wall$152.5largest put OI
IV3029.0%30-day implied vol
Net GEX+$1.6Mper 1% move · flip ≈ $160
Earnings · expectedWed, Nov 18usually before the open

Event risk before this expiration: Jobs report Fri, Oct 2 — macro releases historically overwhelm pinning effects; max pain reads weakest in event weeks.

Max pain levels

ExpiryMax painvs spotDTE
Fri, Sep 25$157.5-0.1%4d
Fri, Oct 2$157.5-0.1%11d
Fri, Oct 9$160+1.5%18d
Fri, Oct 16$145-8.1%25d
Fri, Oct 23$147-6.8%32d
Fri, Oct 30$152.5-3.3%39d
Fri, Nov 20$145-8.1%60d← 1st expiry after earnings (Wed, Nov 18)
Fri, Dec 18$110-30.3%88d

The writer-loss curve — where max pain comes from

spot157.595115135155175195$8M$0
■ put-side pain■ call-side painTotal payout option writers would owe at each settle price (both sides, all open interest, ×100 shares) — low settles hurt put writers, high settles hurt call writers. The minimum — 157.5 — is the max pain price.

Open interest by strike · Fri, Oct 2

spot157.595135145152.5167.5182.51K1K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)TGT open contracts per strike for Fri, Oct 2.

Open-interest change — building vs unwinding

Needs two observed snapshot days for this expiration — the comparison appears automatically once the next weekday snapshot lands. We diff real observations only; nothing is estimated.

Volume by strike · Fri, Oct 2

spot157.595135145152.5167.5182.56262
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Today's traded contracts per strike (delayed).

Implied volatility by strike · Fri, Oct 2

spot11012714416117819588%24%
— call IV— put IVATM ≈ 29.0% · Quoted strikes only; illiquid wings with junk fits are dropped, not smoothed.

Gamma exposure by strike · Fri, Oct 2

spotflip 160110140146155170185+$1.5M$1.5M
Net dealer gamma per strike, in dollars per 1% move, assuming the standard convention (dealers long calls, short puts) — an assumption, not an observation. Above the amber flip level hedging tends to dampen moves; below it, to amplify them.

Greeks by strike · Fri, Oct 2

Call ΔCall ΘStrikeΓVegaPut ΘPut Δ
0.93-0.051460.01600.04-0.05-0.07
0.91-0.061470.01870.04-0.06-0.09
0.89-0.071480.02180.05-0.07-0.11
0.87-0.081490.02510.06-0.08-0.13
0.84-0.091500.02870.07-0.09-0.16
0.76-0.12152.50.03790.09-0.12-0.24
0.66-0.141550.04580.10-0.14-0.35
0.54-0.15157.50.04990.11-0.15-0.47
0.41-0.141600.04920.11-0.14-0.59
0.30-0.13162.50.04390.10-0.13-0.71
0.20-0.101650.03560.08-0.10-0.81
0.13-0.07167.50.02650.06-0.08-0.88
0.08-0.061700.01880.04-0.06-0.93
0.06-0.04172.50.01330.03-0.04-0.96
0.04-0.031750.00960.03-0.04-0.97

Quoted contract greeks from the delayed feed (not modeled here); the highlighted row is nearest to spot. Showing 15 strikes around the money — all 36 are in the CSV. Δ per $1 of underlying · Θ per day · vega per IV point.

Stacked — layer the expirations

spot120138145155172.51902K0
Call open interest per strike, stacked across the checked expirations — each color is one expiry. Strikes are pruned to the liquid center of each chain.

All expirations combined — total open interest

spot459513614616519013K13K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Every expiration combined: 192K call contracts, 179K put contracts open.

Reading this honestly

Max pain is arithmetic, not prophecy: the settle price that would minimize what option writers pay out at expiration, computed from open interest alone. Prices sometimes gravitate toward heavy strikes into expiry — dealer hedging is a real flow — but the evidence that max pain predicts settlement better than chance is mixed, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Use it as a map of where positioning is stacked, next to the fundamentals and the earnings calendar, not as a target.

Data: Cboe delayed public feed (~15 minutes), refreshed here about every 15 minutes. Open interest itself updates once daily, before the open. Educational information, not investment advice.

Keep going: TGT workspace · max pain, explained in full · options profit calculator · GEX, defined · pin risk