Max pain // Cboe delayed data · as of Oct 16, 9:58 PM ET

ARLO max pain

Spot (delayed)$12.16
Max pain · Fri, Apr 16$12-1.3% vs spot
Expected move (ATM straddle)±$3.2±26.3% by Fri, Apr 16
Put/Call OI0.6423 puts / 36 calls
Call wall$13largest call OI
Put wall$12largest put OI
IV3077.2%30-day implied vol
Net GEX+$65per 1% move · flip ≈ $10

Event risk before this expiration: FOMC decision Wed, Oct 28 · Jobs report Fri, Nov 6 · CPI release Tue, Nov 10 · Jobs report Fri, Dec 4 · FOMC decision Wed, Dec 9 · CPI release Thu, Dec 10 — macro releases historically overwhelm pinning effects; max pain reads weakest in event weeks.

Max pain levels

ExpiryMax painvs spotDTE
Fri, Nov 20$10-17.8%35d
Fri, Jan 15$11-9.5%91d
Fri, Apr 16$12-1.3%182d

The writer-loss curve — where max pain comes from

spot125810131518$1M$0
■ put-side pain■ call-side painTotal payout option writers would owe at each settle price (both sides, all open interest, ×100 shares) — low settles hurt put writers, high settles hurt call writers. The minimum — 12 — is the max pain price.

Open interest by strike · Fri, Apr 16

spot1251113162121
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)ARLO open contracts per strike for Fri, Apr 16.

Open-interest change — building vs unwinding

Needs two observed snapshot days for this expiration — the comparison appears automatically once the next weekday snapshot lands. We diff real observations only; nothing is estimated.

Volume by strike · Fri, Apr 16

spot12511131611
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Today's traded contracts per strike (delayed).

Implied volatility by strike · Fri, Apr 16

spot5810131518125%37%
— call IV— put IVATM ≈ 46.0% · Quoted strikes only; illiquid wings with junk fits are dropped, not smoothed.

Gamma exposure by strike · Fri, Apr 16

spotflip 105111316+$232−$232
Net dealer gamma per strike, in dollars per 1% move, assuming the standard convention (dealers long calls, short puts) — an assumption, not an observation. Above the amber flip level hedging tends to dampen moves; below it, to amplify them.

Greeks by strike · Fri, Apr 16

Call ΔCall ΘStrikeΓVegaPut ΘPut Δ
0.97-0.0050.01180.01-0.00-0.05
0.80-0.00100.05840.03-0.00-0.23
0.73-0.00110.07140.03-0.01-0.30
0.65-0.01120.08160.03-0.01-0.39
0.56-0.01130.08680.04-0.01-0.48
0.42-0.01150.08380.03-0.01-0.64
0.36-0.01160.07850.03-0.01-0.70
0.27-0.00180.06610.03-0.01-0.81

Quoted contract greeks from the delayed feed (not modeled here); the highlighted row is nearest to spot. Δ per $1 of underlying · Θ per day · vega per IV point.

Stacked — layer the expirations

spot5121518212K0
Call open interest per strike, stacked across the checked expirations — each color is one expiry. Strikes are pruned to the liquid center of each chain.

All expirations combined — total open interest

spot481216202K2K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Every expiration combined: 3K call contracts, 174 put contracts open.

Reading this honestly

Max pain is arithmetic, not prophecy: the settle price that would minimize what option writers pay out at expiration, computed from open interest alone. Prices sometimes gravitate toward heavy strikes into expiry — dealer hedging is a real flow — but the evidence that max pain predicts settlement better than chance is mixed, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Use it as a map of where positioning is stacked, next to the fundamentals and the earnings calendar, not as a target.

Data: Cboe delayed public feed (~15 minutes), refreshed here about every 15 minutes. Open interest itself updates once daily, before the open. Educational information, not investment advice.

Keep going: ARLO workspace · max pain, explained in full · options profit calculator · GEX, defined · pin risk