How often later closes land inside the band
Each stock page with enough filing history shows a fair value band, a low and a high, and a label for where the price sat against it that day. This page scores the band as a range: of the snapshots taken with each label, how often the close 91 days later sat inside the band that stood on the snapshot day. It prints a share for a label only over 30 scored snapshots.
The record began on 2026-11-06 and holds 151 snapshots of 138 companies. The first of them reaches its 91-day horizon on 2027-02-05. No label has 30 scored snapshots yet, so this page prints no share: a rate over a handful of snapshots would mostly describe which handful.
| Label on the snapshot day | Stored | Scored | Close inside the band 91 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| Significant Discount | 12 | 0 | no share: 12 stored, none past its 91-day horizon yet |
| Discount | 21 | 0 | no share: 21 stored, none past its 91-day horizon yet |
| Fair Value | 43 | 0 | no share: 43 stored, none past its 91-day horizon yet |
| Premium | 32 | 0 | no share: 32 stored, none past its 91-day horizon yet |
| Significant Premium | 43 | 0 | no share: 43 stored, none past its 91-day horizon yet |
How the record is kept
- The label ingest computes each company's band with the same function the stock page runs and stores the label with the band's low and high.
- A row goes into the record the first time a company is seen, when its label changes, and otherwise at most once every 28 days, so no company fills it. Rows are appended and never rewritten.
- A row is scored once 91 days have passed and the daily bar store holds a close on or after that day: inside means the close sat between that row's low and high.
- The labels are positional, where the price sat against the band that day. This scores the band as a range, not the labels as forecasts, and nothing here says what a price will do.
Which tickers get a band at all is the band's coverage audit. Every validation test we run is in the file drawer. Back to methodology.