Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. (SIRI)

CIK 908937 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
LOWworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
LOWno live registration found
= is there a registration (S-1/S-3 family) on file without a later withdrawal
Overhead supply
LOWwarrants = 0% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
LOW-91% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
LOWoperating cash flow positive
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2020-10-202026-07-28

Latest: 337.1M shares as of Jul 28, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 3.85B to 339.2M between Jul 30, 2024 and Oct 29, 2024, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-11); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Self-funding

profitable · generates cash

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

Warrants outstanding: 0 underlying shares, as reported Dec 31, 2016 (10-K).

Reported exercise price: $2.5 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Rough fully diluted estimate: 337.1M = 337.1M O/S + 0 warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

NotePrincipalCarryingConv. priceRateIf converted
3.75 Convertible Senior Notes$575.0M$656.0M$31.013.75%~18.5M sh

If every note above converted at its tagged price: ~18.5M new shares on 337.1M currently outstanding. An estimate from principal ÷ conversion price, with inputs carrying different as-of dates; make-whole adjustments, capped calls and partial repurchases are not modeled.

Notes exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026. Principal is face amount as tagged, not what remains after repurchases unless the filer updated the tag. A note the filer did not dimension is absent here, not absent from the balance sheet; the exhibits stay the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding337.1MJul 28, 2026
+ Warrants (aggregate, as tagged) (if exercised)0Dec 31, 2016
+ 3.75 Convertible Senior Notes (if fully converted)18.5MJun 30, 2026
Fully diluted estimate355.6M+5.5% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

No offering-related filings found in the window reviewed.

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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