Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk.
In the normal course of business, we are exposed to market risks, including changes in interest rates, certain commodity prices and Canadian currency rates. From time to time, we use derivatives to manage some portion of these risks. The Company had no derivatives outstanding as of December 31, 2022.
Interest Rate Exposure — Our exposure to market risk for changes in interest rates relates primarily to our financing activities. As of December 31, 2022, we had $15.1 billion of long-term debt, excluding the impacts of accounting for debt issuance costs, discounts and fair value adjustments attributable to terminated interest rate derivatives. We have $3.5 billion of debt that is exposed to changes in market interest rates within the next 12 months comprised primarily of (i) $1.7 billion of short-term borrowings under our commercial paper program; (ii) $1.0 billion of long-term borrowings under our $1.0 billion, two-year, U.S. term credit agreement and (iii) $725 million of tax-exempt bonds with term interest rate periods that expire within the next 12 months. We currently estimate that a 100-basis point increase in the interest rates of our outstanding variable-rate debt obligations would increase our 2023 interest expense by $28 million.
Our remaining outstanding debt obligations have fixed interest rates through either the scheduled maturity of the debt or, for certain of our fixed-rate tax-exempt bonds, through the end of a term interest rate period that exceeds 12 months. The fair value of our fixed-rate debt obligations can increase or decrease significantly if market interest rates change.
We performed a sensitivity analysis to determine how market rate changes might affect the fair value of our market risk-sensitive debt instruments. This analysis is inherently limited because it reflects a singular, hypothetical set of assumptions. Actual market movements may vary significantly from our assumptions. An instantaneous, 100-basis point increase in interest rates across all maturities attributable to these instruments would have decreased the fair value of our debt by approximately $700 million as of December 31, 2022.
We are also exposed to interest rate market risk from our cash and cash equivalent balances, as well as assets held in restricted trust fund accounts. These assets are generally invested in high-quality, liquid instruments including money market funds that invest in U.S. government obligations with original maturities of three months or less. We believe that our exposure to changes in fair value of these assets due to interest rate fluctuations is insignificant as the fair value generally approximates our cost basis. We also invest a portion of our restricted trust fund account balances in available-for-sale securities, including U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. agency securities, municipal securities, mortgage- and asset-backed securities, which generally mature over the next nine years, as well as equity securities.
Commodity Price Exposure — In the normal course of our business, we are subject to operating agreements that expose us to market risks arising from changes in the prices for commodities such as diesel fuel, electricity (and related renewable energy credits) and recycled materials, including old corrugated cardboard and plastics. We work to manage these risks through operational strategies that focus on capturing our costs in the prices we charge our customers for the services provided. Accordingly, as the market prices for these commodities increase or decrease, our revenues, operating costs and margins may also increase or decrease. Recycling revenues attributable to yield increased $19 million and $537 million in 2022 and 2021, respectively, as compared with the prior year periods, primarily from higher market prices for recycling commodities in 2021 and the first half of 2022, before the significant downturn in the second half of 2022.
Demand for recycled materials strengthened through 2021 and into early 2022, primarily driven by the growth in e-commerce, businesses re-opening, and manufacturers committing to use more recycled content in their packaging. In 2022, we experienced all-time high recycling commodity pricing in the first half of the year to be followed by historically low pricing through the second half of the year, resulting from the slowdown in the global economy, which reduced retail demand and the corresponding need for cardboard packaging to ship retail goods. We expect significant commodity price headwinds to continue into 2023. Average market prices for recycling commodities at the Company’s facilities were approximately 10% lower and 115% higher in 2022 and 2021, respectively, when compared with the prior year periods. Revenue decline from lower commodity pricing was offset by higher pricing in our recycling brokerage business as well as our continued focus on a fee-based pricing model that ensures fees paid by customers cover the cost of processing materials and the impact on our cost structure of managing contamination in the recycling stream. Variability in commodity prices can also impact the margins of our business as certain components of our revenue are structured as a pass through of costs, including recycling brokerage and fuel surcharges.
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The primary drivers of renewable fuel development at our landfills are tax policies, such as the recently expanded federal tax credits for renewable natural gas (“RNG”) production and renewable electricity generation, and federal and state incentive programs, such as the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (“RFS”) program and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard. At the federal level, oil refiners and importers are required through the RFS program to blend specified volumes of renewable transportation fuels with gasoline or buy credits, referred to as renewable identification numbers (“RINs”), from renewable fuel producers. The Company has invested, and continues to invest, in facilities that capture and convert landfill gas into RNG, and also works with facilities that capture and convert dairy digester gas into RNG, so that we can participate in the program, and the Company has stated its intention to grow its asset base to notably increase its RNG production by 2026. RINs prices generally respond to regulations enacted by the EPA, as well as fluctuations in supply and demand. The value of the RINs associated with RNG is set through a market established by the program.
Prior to 2022, the EPA has promulgated rules on an annual basis establishing refiners’ obligations to purchase RNG and other cellulosic biofuels under the RFS program; however, the EPA issued a highly anticipated proposed rule in late 2022 setting forth the direction of the RFS program for compliance years 2023 through 2025. Although this proposal delivers on many reforms that benefit the solid waste sector, the EPA’s programmatic shift towards multi-year standards could lead to market uncertainty and volatility in the price of RINs. We continue to advocate for the current administration to implement policies that ensure long term stability for renewable transportation fuels and expand opportunities for the biogas sector to participate in the RFS program. Changes in the RFS market, the structure of the RFS program or RINs prices and demand can and has impacted the financial performance of the facilities constructed to capture and treat the gas. Such changes could impact or alter our projected future investments, and such investments may not yield the results anticipated.
Currency Rate Exposure — We have operations in Canada as well as certain support functions in India. Where significant, we have quantified and described the impact of foreign currency translation on components of income, including operating revenue and operating expenses. However, the impact of foreign currency has not materially affected our results of operations.
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