Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors
An investment in our securities is subject to risks inherent to our business. The material risks and uncertainties that management believes may affect Valley are described below. Before making an investment decision, you should carefully consider the risks and uncertainties described below together with all of the other information included or incorporated by reference in this report. The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only ones facing Valley. Additional risks and uncertainties that management is not aware of or that management currently believes are immaterial may also impair Valley’s business operations. The value or market price of our securities could decline due to any of these identified or other risks, and you could lose all or part of your investment. This report is qualified in its entirety by these risk factors.
Risks Related to the Operating Environment and the COVID-19 Pandemic
Our financial results and condition may be adversely impacted by changing economic conditions.
Financial institutions can be affected by changing conditions in the real estate and financial markets. The lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical instability, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, foreign currency exchange volatility, volatility in global capital markets, inflationary pressures, and higher interest rates may meaningfully impact loan production, income levels, and the measurement of certain significant estimates such as the allowance for credit losses. Moreover, in a period of economic contraction, we may experience elevated levels of credit losses, reduced interest income, impairment of goodwill and other financial assets, diminished access to capital markets and other funding sources, and reduced demand for our products and services. Volatility in the housing markets, real estate values and unemployment levels results in significant write-downs of asset values by financial institutions. The majority of Valley’s lending is in northern and central New Jersey, the New York City metropolitan area and Florida. As a result of this geographic concentration, a significant broad-based deterioration in economic conditions in these areas could have a material adverse impact on the quality of Valley’s loan portfolio, results of operations and future growth potential.
An unexpected COVID-19 pandemic resurgence due to new variants could cause us to experience higher credit losses in our lending portfolio, additional increases in our allowance for credit losses, impairment of our goodwill and other financial assets, diminished access to capital markets and other funding sources, further reduced demand for our products and services, and other negative impacts on our financial position, results of operations.
During 2022, the Federal Reserve took unprecedented action during the year to restrain inflation and improve the stability of the economy by raising the target federal funds rate several times from 25 basis points in the beginning of the year to 75 basis points toward the end of the year and brought the benchmark interest rates up by a collective 4.25 percent. As inflation increases and market interest rates rise, the value of our investment securities, particularly those with longer maturities, would decrease, although this effect can be less pronounced for floating rate instruments. In addition, inflation generally increases the cost of goods and services we use in our business operations, such as electricity and other utilities, which increases our non-interest expenses. Furthermore, our customers are also affected by inflation and the rising costs of goods and services used in their households and businesses, which could have a negative impact on their ability to repay their loans with us.
Any of these effects, if sustained, may impair our capital and liquidity positions, require us to take capital actions, prevent us from satisfying our minimum regulatory capital ratios and other supervisory requirements, or result in downgrades in our credit ratings and the reduction or elimination of our common stock dividend in future periods.
The extent to which current economic environment has a further impact on our business, results of operations, and financial condition, as well as the regulatory capital and liquidity ratios, will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the current economic environment and actions taken by governmental authorities and other third parties in response to the geopolitical conflict, and inflationary pressure.
Risks Related to our Merger with Bank Leumi USA
Valley has incurred and is expected to incur significant costs related to the merger and integration.
Valley has incurred certain non-recurring costs associated with the initial merger, including legal, financial advisory, accounting, consulting and other advisory fees, severance/employee benefit-related costs and other related costs. Valley has also incurred and is expected to incur substantial costs in connection with the integration of Valley and Bank Leumi USA. There are a large number of processes, policies, procedures, operations, technologies and systems integrations that are still ongoing. Valley has assumed that a certain level of costs will be incurred, however, there are many factors beyond Valley’s control that could affect the total amount or the timing of the integration costs. Moreover, many of the costs that will be incurred are, by their nature, difficult to estimate accurately. These integration costs may result in Valley taking charges against
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earnings, and the amount and timing of such charges are uncertain at present. Valley incurred total merger-related expenses of $71.2 million and $8.9 million for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Combining Valley and Bank Leumi USA may be more difficult, costly or time consuming than expected and Valley may fail to realize the anticipated benefits of the merger.
To realize the anticipated benefits and synergies from the merger, Valley must successfully integrate the Bank Leumi USA business in a manner that permits those synergies to be realized. If Valley is not able to successfully achieve these objectives, the anticipated benefits of the merger may not be realized fully or at all or may take longer to realize than expected. In addition, the actual synergies and anticipated benefits of the merger could be less than anticipated, and integration may result in additional unforeseen expenses.
Prior to the merger, Valley and Bank Leumi USA operated independently. The success of the merger depends, in part, on Valley’s ability to successfully complete the ongoing integration of the businesses of both companies in a manner that does not materially disrupt existing customer relations or result in decreased revenue or reputational harm. It is possible that the integration process could result in the loss of key employees, the disruption of either company’s ongoing businesses, difficulties in integrating operations and systems, including communications systems, administrative and information technology infrastructure and financial reporting and internal control systems, or inconsistencies in standards, controls, procedures and policies that adversely affect the companies’ ability to maintain relationships with clients, customers, depositors and employees or to achieve the anticipated benefits of the merger. Any disruption to either company’s business could cause its customers to remove their accounts and move their business to a competing financial institution. Integration efforts may also divert management attention and resources. These integration matters could have an adverse effect on Valley.
Valley may be unable to retain Valley or Bank Leumi USA personnel successfully.
The success of the merger depends in part on Valley’s ability to retain the talents and dedication of key employees employed prior to the merger by Valley and Bank Leumi USA. It is possible that these employees may decide not to remain with Valley. If Valley is unable to retain key employees, including management, who are critical to the successful integration of the companies and future operations, Valley could face disruptions in operations, loss of existing customers, loss of key information, expertise or know-how and unanticipated additional recruitment costs. In addition, if key employees terminate their employment, Valley’s business activities may be adversely affected and management’s attention may be diverted from successfully integrating Valley and Bank Leumi USA to hiring suitable replacements, all of which may cause Valley’s business to suffer. In addition, Valley may not be able to locate or retain suitable replacements for any key employees who leave.
Risks Associated with Our Business Model
The loss of or decrease in lower-cost funding sources within our deposit base, including our inability to achieve deposit retention targets under our branch transformation strategy, may adversely impact our net interest income and net income.
Checking and savings, NOW, and money market deposit account balances and other forms of customer deposits can decrease when customers perceive alternative investments, such as the stock market, U.S. Treasury securities, and money market or fixed income mutual funds, as providing a better risk/return trade-off. Additionally, our customers largely bank with us because of our local customer service and convenience. For certain customers, this convenience could be negatively impacted by continued branch consolidation activity undergone as part of our branch transformation strategy. If customers move money out of bank deposits and into other investments, Valley could lose a low-cost source of funds, increasing its funding costs and reducing Valley’s net interest income and net income.
Our deposit services for businesses in the state licensed cannabis industry could expose us to liabilities and regulatory compliance costs.
In 2020, we implemented specialized deposit services intended for a limited number of state licensed medical-use cannabis business customers. Medical use cannabis, as well as recreational use businesses are legal in numerous states and the District of Columbia, including our primary markets of New Jersey, New York, and Florida. However, such businesses are not legal at the federal level and marijuana remains a Schedule I drug under the Controlled Substances Act of 1970. In 2014, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) published guidelines for financial institutions servicing state legal cannabis businesses. We have implemented a comprehensive control framework that includes written policies and procedures related to the on-boarding of such businesses and the monitoring and maintenance of such business accounts that comports with the FinCEN guidance. Additionally, our policies call for due diligence review of the cannabis business before the business is on-boarded, including confirmation that the business is properly licensed and maintains the license in good standing in the applicable state. Throughout the relationship, our policies call for continued monitoring of
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the business, including site visits, to determine if the business continues to meet our requirements, including maintenance of required licenses and calls for undertaking periodic financial reviews of the business. The Bank’s program originally was limited to offering depository products to medical cannabis businesses. Deposit transactions are monitored for compliance with the applicable state medical program rules and other regulations. In the latter half of 2021, the Bank expanded its cannabis-related business offerings to some limited lending on real estate and deposit services to licensed recreational dispensaries. The Bank may offer additional banking products and services to such customers in the future.
While we believe our policies and procedures allow us to operate in compliance with the FinCEN guidelines, there can be no assurance that compliance with the FinCEN guidelines will protect us from federal prosecution or other regulatory sanctions. Federal prosecutors have significant discretion and there can be no assurance that the federal prosecutors will not choose to strictly enforce the federal laws governing cannabis. Any change in the federal government’s enforcement position could potentially subject us to criminal prosecution and other regulatory sanctions. As a general matter, the medical and recreational cannabis business is considered high-risk, thus increasing the risk of a regulatory action against our BSA/AML program that has adverse consequences, including but not limited to, preventing us from undertaking mergers, acquisitions and other expansion activities.
A significant portion of our loan portfolio is secured by real estate, and events that negatively impact the real estate market could adversely affect our asset quality and profitability for those loans secured by real property and increase the number of defaults and the level of losses within our loan portfolio.
A significant portion of our loan portfolio is secured by real estate. As of December 31, 2022, approximately 75 percent of our total loans had real estate as a primary or secondary component of collateral. The real estate collateral in each case provides an alternate source of repayment in the event of default by the borrower and could deteriorate in value during the time the credit is extended. A downturn in the real estate market in our primary market areas could result in an increase in the number of borrowers who default on their loans and a reduction in the value of the collateral securing their loans, which in turn could have an adverse effect on our profitability and asset quality. If we are required to liquidate the collateral securing a loan to satisfy the debt during a period of reduced real estate values, our earnings and shareholders’ equity could be adversely affected. Any declines in home or commercial real estate prices in the New Jersey, New York and Florida markets we primarily serve, along with the unpredictable long-term path of the economy, also may result in increases in delinquencies and losses in our loan portfolios. Unexpected decreases in home or commercial real estate prices coupled with slow economic growth and elevated levels of unemployment could drive losses beyond those which are provided for in our allowance for loan losses. In that event, our earnings could be adversely affected.
We could incur future goodwill impairment.
If our estimates of the fair value of our goodwill change as a result of changes in our business or other factors, we may determine a goodwill impairment charge is necessary. Estimates of the fair value of goodwill are determined using several factors and assumptions, including, but not limited to, industry pricing multiples and estimated cash flows. Based upon Valley's 2022 goodwill impairment testing, the fair values of its three reporting units, wealth management, consumer banking, and commercial banking, were in excess of their carrying values . No assurance can be given that we will not record an impairment loss on goodwill in the future and any such impairment loss could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. At December 31, 2022, our goodwill totaled $1.9 billion. See Note 8 to the consolidated financial statements for additional information.
Our market share and income may be adversely affected by our inability to successfully compete against larger and more diverse financial service providers, digital fintech start-up firms and other financial services providers that have advanced technological capabilities.
Valley faces substantial competition in all areas of its operations from a variety of different competitors, many of which are larger and may have more financial resources than Valley to deal with the potential negative changes in the financial markets and regulatory landscape. Many of these competitors may have fewer regulatory constraints, broader geographic service areas, greater capital, and, in some cases, lower cost structures. Valley competes with other providers of financial services such as commercial and savings banks, savings and loan associations, credit unions, money market and mutual funds, mortgage companies, title agencies, asset managers, insurance companies, and a large list of other local, regional and national institutions which offer financial services.
Additionally, the financial services industry is facing a wave of digital disruption from fintech companies and other large financial services providers. The financial services industry is continually undergoing rapid technological change with frequent introductions of new, technology-driven products and services which increase efficiency and enable financial institutions to better serve customers and to reduce costs. These competitors provide innovative web-based solutions to traditional retail
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banking services and products. Fintech companies tend to have stronger operating efficiencies and fewer regulatory burdens than their traditional bank counterparts, including Valley.
Regulatory changes may continue to allow new entrants into the markets in which we operate. The result of these regulatory changes will likely cause other non-traditional financial services companies to compete directly with Valley. Many of the companies have stronger operating efficiencies and fewer regulatory burdens than their traditional bank counterparts, including Valley.
Our future success depends, in part, upon our ability to address the needs of our customers by using technology to provide products and services that will satisfy customer demands, as well as to create additional efficiencies in our operations. As a result of COVID-19, many customers have become more reliant on, and their expectations have increased with respect to, this technology. We may not be able to effectively implement new, technology-driven products and services or be successful in marketing these products and services to our customers and service interruptions, transaction processing errors and system conversion delays and may cause us to fail to comply with applicable laws. Many of Valley’s competitors have substantially greater resources to invest in technological improvements. Valley may not be able to effectively implement new technology-driven products and services or be successful in marketing these products and services to its customers. Failure to successfully keep pace with technological change affecting the financial services industry could have a material adverse impact on Valley’s business and, in turn, Valley’s financial condition and results of operations.
Failure to successfully implement our growth strategies could cause us to incur substantial costs and expenses which may not be recouped and adversely affect our future profitability.
From time to time, Valley may implement new lines of business or offer new products and services within existing lines of business. There are substantial risks and uncertainties associated with these efforts, particularly in instances where the markets are not fully developed. Valley may invest significant time and resources to develop and market new lines of business and/or products and services. Initial timetables for the introduction and development of new lines of business and/or new products or services may not be achieved, and price and profitability targets may not prove feasible. External factors, such as compliance with regulations, competitive alternatives, and shifting customer preferences, may also impact the successful implementation of a new line of business or a new product or service. Additionally, any new line of business and/or new product or service could have a significant impact on the effectiveness of Valley’s system of internal controls. Failure to successfully manage these risks could have a material adverse effect on Valley’s business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our investments in certain tax-advantaged projects may not generate returns as anticipated and may have an adverse impact on our results of operations.
We invest in certain tax-advantaged investments that support qualified affordable housing projects, community development and, prior to 2019, renewable energy resources. Our investments in these projects are designed to generate a return primarily through the realization of federal and state income tax credits, and other tax benefits, over specified time periods. Third parties perform diligence on these investments for us on which we rely both at inception and on an ongoing basis. We are subject to the risk that previously recorded tax credits, which remain subject to recapture by taxing authorities based on compliance features required to be met at the project level, may fail to meet certain government compliance requirements and may not be able to be realized. The possible inability to realize these tax credits and other tax benefits may have a negative impact on our financial results. The risk of not being able to realize the tax credits and other tax benefits depends on many factors outside our control, including changes in the applicable tax code and the ability of the projects to be completed.
We previously invested in mobile solar generators sold and leased back by DC Solar and its affiliates (DC Solar). DC Solar had its assets frozen in December 2018 by the U.S. Department of Justice. DC Solar and related entities are in Chapter 7 bankruptcy. A group of investors who purchased mobile solar generators from, and leased them back to, DC Solar, including us received tax credits for making these renewable resource investments. During the fourth quarter 2019, several of the co-conspirators pleaded guilty to fraud in the ongoing federal investigation. Based upon this new information, Valley deemed that its tax positions related to the DC Solar funds did not meet the more likely than not recognition threshold in Valley's tax reserve assessment at December 31, 2019. As a result, our net income for the year ended December 31, 2019, included an increase to our provision for income taxes of $31.1 million, reflecting the reserve for uncertain tax liability positions related to tax credits and other tax benefits previously recognized from the investments in the DC Solar funds plus interest. The principals pled guilty to fraud in early 2020. During 2021, the Internal Revenue Service commenced an audit connected with our investment in DC Solar and the audit remains open at this time.
While we believe that Valley was fully reserved for the tax positions related to DC Solar at December 31, 2022, we continue to evaluate all our existing tax positions each quarter under U.S. GAAP.
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We are subject to environmental liability risk associated with lending activities which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
A significant portion of our loan portfolio is secured by real property. During the ordinary course of business, we may foreclose on and take title to properties securing certain loans. In doing so, there is a risk that hazardous or toxic substances could be found on these properties. If hazardous or toxic substances are found, we may be liable for remediation costs, as well as for personal injury and property damage. Environmental laws may require us to incur substantial expenses and may materially reduce the affected property’s value or limit our ability to use or sell the affected property. In addition, future laws or more stringent interpretations or enforcement policies with respect to existing laws may increase our exposure to environmental liability. Although we have policies and procedures to perform an environmental review prior to originating certain commercial real estate loans, as well as before initiating any foreclosure action on real property, these reviews may not be sufficient to detect all potential environmental hazards. The remediation costs and any other financial liabilities associated with an environmental hazard could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
We may incur future losses in connection with repurchases and indemnification payments related to mortgages that we have sold into the secondary market.
We engage in the origination of residential mortgages for sale into the secondary market, while typically retaining the loan servicing. In connection with such sales, we make representations and warranties, which, if breached, may require us to repurchase such loans, substitute other loans or indemnify the purchasers of such loans for actual losses incurred in respect of such loans. The aggregate principal balances of residential mortgage loans serviced by the Bank for others approximated $3.5 billion and $3.6 billion at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Over the past several years, we have experienced a nominal amount of repurchase requests, and only a few of which have actually resulted in repurchases by Valley (nine and five loan repurchases in 2022 and 2021, respectively). None of the loan repurchases resulted in a material loss. As of December 31, 2022, no reserves pertaining to loans sold were established on our financial statements. While we currently believe our repurchase risk remains low based upon our careful loan underwriting and documentation standards, it is possible that requests to repurchase loans could occur in the future, and such requests may have a negative financial impact on us.
Interest rate swap fees within capital markets income are a significant component of our non-interest income and could fluctuate in future periods.
Valley executes interest rate swaps with commercial lending customers to facilitate their respective risk management strategies . Interest rate swap fees reported within capital markets income totaled approximately $43.1 million, or 21 percent, and $26.9 million, or 17 percent, of total non-interest income for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. While we believe our commercial loan customers will continue to use interest rate swap for managing interest rate risk, several factors, including, but not limited to, the actual and expected level of market interest rates, can impact their decision to use such products. As a result, we can provide no assurance that our interest rate swap fees will remain at the level reported for the year ended December 31, 2022.
We may not be able to attract and retain skilled people.
Our success depends, in large part, on our ability to attract and retain key people. Competition for the best people in most activities in which we engage can be intense and we may not be able to hire people or to retain them, in particular due to an increasingly competitive labor market. The labor market continues to experience elevated levels of turnover in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we have been impacted by an extremely competitive labor market, including increased competition for talent across all aspects of our business, as well as increased competition with non-traditional competitors, such as fintech companies. Employers are offering increased compensation and opportunities to work with greater flexibility, including remote work, on a permanent basis. These can be important factors in a current associate’s decision to leave us as well as in a prospective associate’s decision to join us. As competition for skilled professionals remains intense, we may have to devote significant resources to attract and retain qualified personnel, which could negatively impact earnings. The unexpected loss of services of one or more of our key personnel, including, but not limited to, the executive officers disclosed in Item 1 of this Annual Report, could have a material adverse impact on our business because we would lose the employees’ skills, knowledge of the market, and years of industry experience and may have difficulty promptly finding qualified replacement personnel.
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We are subject to risks relating to environmental, social and governance (“ESG”) matters that could adversely affect our reputation, business, financial condition and results of operations, as well as the price of our common and preferred stock.
We are subject to a variety of risks, including reputational risk, associated with ESG matters. The public holds diverse and often conflicting views on these matters. We have multiple stakeholders, including our shareholders, clients, associates, federal and state regulatory authorities, and the communities in which we operate, and these stakeholders will often have differing priorities and expectations regarding ESG issues. If we take action in conflict with one or another of those stakeholders’ expectations, we could experience an increase in client complaints, a loss of business, or reputational harm. We could also face negative publicity or reputational harm based on the identity of those with whom we choose to do business. Any adverse publicity in connection with ESG issues could damage our reputation, ability to attract and retain clients and associates, compete effectively, and grow our business.
In addition, proxy advisory firms and certain institutional investors who manage investments in public companies are increasingly integrating ESG factors into their investment analysis. The consideration of ESG factors in making investment and voting decisions is relatively new. Accordingly, the frameworks and methods for assessing ESG policies are not fully developed, vary considerably among the investment community, and will likely continue to evolve over time. Moreover, the subjective nature of methods used by various stakeholders to assess a company with respect to ESG criteria could result in erroneous perceptions or a misrepresentation of our actual ESG policies and practices. Organizations that provide ratings information to investors on ESG matters may also assign unfavorable ratings to us. Certain of our clients might also require that we implement additional ESG procedures or standards in order to continue to do business with them. If we fail to comply with specific ESG-related investor or client expectations and standards, or to provide the disclosure relating to ESG issues that any third parties may believe is necessary or appropriate (regardless of whether there is a legal requirement to do so), our reputation, business, financial condition, and/or results of operations, as well as the price of our common and preferred stock could be negatively impacted.
Climate change and severe weather could significantly impact our ability to conduct our business.
There is an increasing concern over the risks of climate change and related environmental sustainability matters. The physical risks of climate change include discrete events, such as flooding and wildfires, and longer-term shifts in climate patterns, such as extreme heat, seal level rise, and more frequent and prolonged drought. Such events could disrupt our operations or those of our customers or third parties on which we rely, including through direct damage to assets and indirect impacts from market volatility. Additionally, transitioning to a low-carbon economy may entail extensive policy, legal, technology and market initiatives.
A significant portion of our primary markets is located near coastal waters which could generate naturally occurring severe weather, or in response to climate change, which could have a significant impact on our ability to conduct business. Many areas in New Jersey, New York, Florida and Alabama in which the vast majority of our branches and offices operate are subject to severe flooding from time to time and significant disruptions related to the weather may become common events in the future. Heavy storms and hurricanes can also cause severe property damage and result in business closures, negatively impacting both the financial health of retail and commercial customers and our ability to operate our business. The risk of significant disruption and potential losses from future storm activity exists in all of our primary markets.
Risks Related to Our Industry
Changes in interest rates could reduce our net interest income and earnings.
Valley’s earnings and cash flows are largely dependent upon its net interest income. Net interest income is the difference between interest income earned on interest-earning assets, such as loans and investment securities, and interest expense paid on interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowed funds. Interest rates are sensitive to many factors that are beyond Valley’s control, including general economic conditions, competition, and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies and, in particular, the policies of the Federal Reserve. Changes in interest rates driven by such factors could influence not only the interest Valley receives on loans and investment securities and the amount of interest it pays on deposits and borrowings, but such changes could also affect (i) Valley’s ability to originate loans and obtain deposits, (ii) the fair value of Valley’s financial assets, including the held to maturity and available for sale investment securities portfolios, and (iii) the average duration of Valley’s interest-earning assets and liabilities. This also includes the risk that interest-earning assets may be more responsive to changes in interest rates than interest-bearing liabilities, or vice versa (repricing risk), the risk that the individual interest rates or rate indices underlying various interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities may not change in the same degree over a given time period (basis risk), and the risk of changing interest rate relationships across the spectrum of interest-earning asset and interest-bearing liability maturities (yield curve risk). The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate between 0.00 and 0.25 percent during 2021. Beginning in March 2022, the Federal Reserve
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significantly increased the target federal funds rate incrementally through 2022 resulting in a target range between 4.25 and 4.50 percent at December 31, 2022, effectively increasing interest rates. During the first quarter 2023, the Federal Reserve increased the target federal funds rate another 0.25 percent and may further increase the target federal funds rate in 2023 in an attempt to reduce inflation. Any substantial or unexpected change in market interest rates could have a material adverse effect on Valley’s financial condition and results of operations. See additional information in the “Net Interest Income” and “Interest Rate Sensitivity” sections of our MD&A.
We may not be able to detect money laundering and other illegal or improper activities fully or on a timely basis, which could expose us to additional liability and could have a material adverse effect on us.
We are required to comply with anti-money laundering, anti-terrorism and other laws and regulations in the United States. These laws and regulations require us, among other things, to adopt and enforce “know-your-customer” policies and procedures and to report suspicious and large transactions to applicable regulatory authorities. These laws and regulations have become increasingly complex and detailed, require improved systems and sophisticated monitoring and compliance personnel and have become the subject of enhanced government supervision.
While we have adopted policies and procedures aimed at detecting and preventing the use of our banking network for money laundering and related activities, those policies and procedures may not completely eliminate instances in which we may be used by customers to engage in money laundering and other illegal or improper activities. To the extent we fail to fully comply with applicable laws and regulations, the OCC, along with other banking agencies, have the authority to impose fines and other penalties and sanctions on us. In addition, our business and reputation could suffer if customers use our banking network for money laundering or illegal or improper purposes.
The replacement of the LIBOR benchmark interest rate may have an impact on Valley’s business, financial condition or results of operations.
The Adjustable Interest Rate (LIBOR) Act (the “LIBOR Act”), is a Federal law that was passed March 15, 2022, to permit financing agreements that contain a LIBOR-based benchmark without inadequate “fallback provisions” to be automatically replaced, once LIBOR ceases, by a benchmark replacement recommended by the Federal Reserve. On December 16, 2022, the Federal Reserve adopted a final rule implementing the LIBOR Act that, among other things, identifies the applicable SOFR-based benchmark replacements under the LIBOR Act. The LIBOR Act pre-empts similar state laws such as the New York State statute providing for recommended benchmark replacements for contracts governed by New York law without adequate fallback provisions. US Dollar LIBOR rates will continue to be published until June 30, 2023, to allow adequate time for legacy LIBOR based financing to move to an alternate reference interest rate.
SOFR is considered to be a risk free rate and LIBOR was a risk weighted rate. Thus, SOFR tends to be a lower rate than LIBOR because it does not contain a risk component. The difference may negatively impact Valley's interest rate margin utilizing SOFR as compared to LIBOR. We no longer use LIBOR as an index for any new loan originations and commenced its changeover of legacy LIBOR based financing to alternate indexes. The implementation of a substitute index or indices for the calculation of interest rates under loan agreements with borrowers may cause us to incur expenses related to the transition, may result in reduced loan interest income. Borrowers may dispute substitute index, indices or equalization credit spread adjustments. Some disputes with borrowers over the appropriateness or comparability to LIBOR of the substitute index or indices may result in litigation. The interest rate differences, costs associated with the indices changeover from LIBOR to SOFR and the limited potential for litigation related to the cessation of LIBOR may have an adverse impact to Valley. These consequences cannot be entirely predicted and may impact the market value for or value of LIBOR-linked securities, loans, and other financial obligations or extensions of credit held by or due to us.
Higher charge-offs and weak credit conditions could require us to further increase our allowance for credit losses through a provision charge to earnings.
The process for determining the amount of the allowance for credit losses is critical to our financial results and conditions. It requires difficult, subjective and complex judgments about the future, including the impact of national and regional economic conditions on the ability of our borrowers to repay their loans. If our judgment proves to be incorrect, our allowance for credit losses may not be sufficient to cover the lifetime credit losses inherent in our loan and held to maturity debt securities portfolios, as well as unfunded credit commitments. Deterioration in economic conditions affecting borrowers, including as a result of inflationary pressures or other macroeconomic factors resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic or otherwise, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require an increase in the allowance for credit losses. Additionally, bank regulators review the classification of our loans in their examination of us and we may be required in the future to change the internal classification on certain loans, which may require us to increase our provision for credit losses or loan charge-offs. If actual net charge-offs were to exceed Valley’s allowance, its earnings would be negatively impacted by additional provisions for credit losses. Any
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increase in our allowance for credit losses or loan charge-offs as required by the OCC or otherwise could have an adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition.
An increase in our non-performing assets may reduce our interest income and increase our net loan charge-offs, provision for loan losses, and operating expenses.
Non-performing assets (including non-accrual loans, other real estate owned, and other repossessed assets) totaled $272.0 million at December 31, 2022. Our non-accrual loans represented 0.57 percent of total loans at December 31, 2022 and included non-accrual taxi medallion loans totaling $66.5 million with related reserves of $42.2 million, or 63.5 percent of such loans, within the allowance for loan losses. These non-performing assets can adversely affect our net income mainly through decreased interest income and increased operating expenses incurred to maintain such assets or loss charges related to subsequent declines in the estimated fair value of foreclosed assets. Adverse changes in the value of our non-performing assets, or the underlying collateral, or in the borrowers’ performance or financial conditions could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. Potential further declines in the market valuation of taxi medallions and the stressed operating environment within New York City due to the COVID-19 pandemic, increases in crime or other factors could also negatively impact the future performance of this portfolio. There can be no assurance that we will not experience increases in non-performing loans in the future, or that our non-performing assets will not result in lower financial returns in the future.
We may be required to consult with the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) before declaring cash dividends on our common stock, which ultimately may delay, reduce, or eliminate such dividends and adversely affect the market price of our common stock.
Holders of our common stock are only entitled to receive such cash dividends as our Board of Directors may declare out of funds legally available for such payments. Although we have historically declared cash dividends on our common stock, we are not required to do so. We may reduce or eliminate our common stock cash dividend in the future depending upon our results of operations, financial condition or other metrics, which could be adversely impacted by the factors described in this Item 1A, including the potential ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain U.S. economic conditions.
In July 2020, the FRB updated its supervisory guidance to provide greater clarity regarding the situations in which bank holding companies, like Valley, may expect an expedited consultation in connection with the declaration of dividends that exceed quarterly earnings. To qualify, amongst other criteria, total commercial real estate loan concentrations cannot represent 300 percent or more of total capital and the outstanding balance of the commercial real estate loan portfolio cannot increase by 50 percent or more during the prior 36 months. Currently, we believe that Valley does not meet the standard for expedited consultation and approval of its dividend, should it be required. As a result, Valley could be subject to a lengthier and possibly more burdensome review process by the FRB when considering paying dividends that exceed quarterly earnings. The delay, reduction or elimination of our quarterly dividend could adversely affect the market price of our common stock. See additional information regarding our quarterly cash dividend and the current rate of earnings retention in the “Capital Adequacy” section of the MD&A.
General Commercial, Operational and Financial and Regulatory Risks
Our controls and procedures may fail or be circumvented, which may result in a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Management periodically reviews and updates our internal controls, disclosure controls and procedures, and corporate governance policies. Any system of controls, however well designed and operated, is based in part on certain assumptions and can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurances that the objectives of the system are met. Any failure or circumvention of the controls and procedures or failure to comply with regulations related to controls and procedures could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We rely on our systems of controls and procedures, and if our system fails, our operations could be disrupted.
We face the risk that the design of our controls and procedures, including those to mitigate the risk of fraud by employees or outsiders, may prove to be inadequate or are circumvented, thereby causing delays in detection of errors or inaccuracies in data and information. We regularly review and update our internal controls, disclosure controls and procedures, and corporate governance policies and procedures. Any system of controls, however well designed and operated, is based in part on certain assumptions and can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurances that the objectives of the system are met. Any failure or circumvention of our controls and procedures or failure to comply with regulations related to controls and procedures could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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We may also be subject to disruptions of our systems arising from events that are wholly or partially beyond our control (including, for example, electrical or telecommunications outages), which may give rise to losses in service to customers and to financial loss or liability. We are further exposed to the risk that our external vendors may be unable to fulfill their contractual obligations (or will be subject to the same risk of fraud or operational errors by their respective employees as us) and to the risk that our (or our vendors’) business continuity and data security systems prove to be inadequate. We maintain a system of comprehensive policies and a control framework designed to monitor vendor risks including, among other things, (i) changes in the vendor’s organizational structure or internal controls, (ii) changes in the vendor’s financial condition, (iii) changes in the vendor’s support for existing products and services and (iv) changes in the vendor’s strategic focus. While we believe these policies and procedures help to mitigate risk, the failure of an external vendor to perform in accordance with the contracted arrangements under service level agreements could be disruptive to our operations, which could have a material adverse impact on our business and, in turn, our financial condition and results of operations.
Our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected by the outbreak of pandemic disease, acts of terrorism, and other external events.
The emergence of widespread health emergencies or pandemics, such as COVID-19, could lead to additional quarantines, business shutdowns, labor shortages, disruptions to supply chains, and overall economic instability. Additionally, New York City and New Jersey remain central targets for potential acts of terrorism against the United States. Such events could affect the stability of our deposit base, impair the ability of borrowers to repay outstanding loans, impair the value of collateral securing loans, cause significant property damage, result in loss of revenue and/or cause us to incur additional expenses. Although we have established and regularly test disaster recovery policies and procedures, the occurrence of any such event in the future could have a material adverse effect on our business, which, in turn, could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
Our ability to make opportunistic acquisitions is subject to significant risks, including the risk that regulators will not provide the requisite approvals.
We may make opportunistic whole or partial acquisitions of other banks, branches, financial institutions, or related businesses from time to time that we expect may further our business strategy. Any possible acquisition will be subject to regulatory approval, and there can be no assurance that we will be able to obtain such approval in a timely manner or at all. Even if we obtain regulatory approval, these acquisitions could involve numerous risks, including lower than expected performance or higher than expected costs, difficulties related to integration, diversion of management's attention from other business activities, changes in relationships with customers, and the potential loss of key employees. In addition, we may not be successful in identifying acquisition candidates, integrating acquired institutions, or preventing deposit erosion or loan quality deterioration at acquired institutions. Competition for acquisitions can be intense, and we may not be able to acquire other institutions on attractive terms. There can be no assurance that we will be successful in completing or will even pursue future acquisitions, or if such transactions are completed, that we will be successful in integrating acquired businesses into operations. Ability to grow may be limited if we choose not to pursue or are unable to successfully make acquisitions in the future.
The CECL model for determining our allowance for credit losses could add volatility to our provision for credit losses and earnings.
The current expected credit loss (CECL) model requires the allowance for credit losses for certain financial assets, including loans, held to maturity securities and certain off-balance sheet credit exposures, to be calculated based on current expected credit losses over the lives of the assets rather than incurred losses as of a point in time. Our estimation process is subject to risks and uncertainties, including a reliance on historical loss and trend information that may not be representative of current conditions and indicative of future performance. Accordingly, our actual lifetime credit losses may be materially different than the amounts reported in the allowance due to the inherent uncertainty in the estimation process, including future loss estimates based upon our reasonable and supportable economic forecasts. Also, future credit losses could differ materially from those estimates due to changes in values and circumstances after the balance sheet date. Changes in such estimates could significantly impact our allowance, provision for credit losses and earnings.
We may be unable to adequately manage our liquidity risk, which could affect our ability to meet our obligations as they become due, capitalize on growth opportunities, or pay regular dividends on our common stock.
Liquidity risk is the potential that Valley will be unable to meet its obligations as they come due, capitalize on growth opportunities as they arise, or pay regular dividends on our common stock because of an inability to liquidate assets or obtain adequate funding on a timely basis, at a reasonable cost and within acceptable risk tolerances. Liquidity is required to fund various obligations, including credit commitments to borrowers, mortgage and other loan originations, withdrawals by depositors, repayment of borrowings, dividends to shareholders, operating expenses and capital expenditures. Liquidity is derived primarily from commercial and retail deposit growth and retention; principal and interest payments on loans; principal
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and interest payments on investment securities; sale, maturity and prepayment of investment securities; net cash provided from operations; and access to other funding sources, such as the FHLB and certain brokered deposit channels established by the Bank.
Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities could be impaired by factors that affect us specifically or the financial services industry in general. Factors that could have a detrimental impact to our access to liquidity sources include a decrease in the level of our business activity due to persistent weakness, or downturn, in the economy or adverse regulatory action against us. Our ability to borrow could also be impaired by factors that are not necessarily specific to us, such as a severe disruption of the financial markets or negative views and expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry as a whole.
Cyber attacks could compromise our information or result in the data of our customers being improperly divulged or our systems being disrupted, which could expose us to liability, losses and escalating operating costs.
Valley regularly collects, processes, transmits and stores confidential information regarding its customers, employees and others for whom it services loans. In some cases, this confidential or proprietary information is collected, compiled, processed, transmitted or stored by third parties on Valley’s behalf. Information security risks have increased because of the proliferation of new technologies and the increased sophistication and activities of perpetrators of cyber attacks. Many financial institutions and companies engaged in data processing have reported significant breaches in the security of their websites or other systems, some of which have involved sophisticated and targeted attacks intended to obtain unauthorized access to confidential information, destroy data, denial-of-service, or sabotage systems, often through the introduction of computer viruses or malware, cyber attacks and other means. In addition, there have been well-publicized “ransomware” attacks against various U.S. companies with the intent to materially disrupt their computer network and services. Globally, cybersecurity attacks are increasing in number and the attackers are increasingly organized and well-financed, or at times supported by state actors. In addition, geopolitical tensions or conflicts, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or increasing tension with China, may create a heightened risk of cybersecurity attacks. Valley frequently experiences attempted cybersecurity attacks against its systems. There can be no assurances that Valley will not incur breaches of our systems or that of our vendors which may expose the data of our customers or disrupt our services, exposing us to significant damage, ongoing operational costs and/or reputational harm.
Cyber risk exposure will remain elevated or increase in the future due to, among other things, the increasing size and prominence of Valley in the financial services industry, our expansion of internet and mobile banking tools and new products based on customer needs, and the system and customer account conversions associated with the integration of merger targets. Successful attacks on any one of many our third-party service providers may adversely affect our business and result in the disclosure or misuse of our confidential information or that of our customers. There can be no assurance that we or our third-party service providers will not suffer a cyber attack that exposes us to significant damages, operational costs, or reputational harm.
Extensive regulation and supervision have a negative impact on our ability to compete in a cost-effective manner and may subject us to material compliance costs and penalties, and changes in regulation could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Valley, primarily through its principal subsidiary and certain non-bank subsidiaries, is subject to extensive federal and state regulation and supervision. Banking regulations are primarily intended to protect depositors’ funds, federal deposit insurance funds and the banking system as a whole. Many laws and regulations affect Valley’s lending practices, capital structure, investment practices, dividend policy and growth, among other things. They encourage Valley to ensure a satisfactory level of lending in defined areas and establish and maintain comprehensive programs relating to anti-money laundering and customer identification. Congress, state legislatures, and federal and state regulatory agencies continually review banking laws, regulations and policies for possible changes. Changes to statutes, regulations or regulatory policies, including changes in interpretation or implementation of statutes, regulations or policies, could affect Valley in substantial and unpredictable ways. Such changes could subject Valley to additional costs, limit the types of financial services and products it may offer and/or increase the ability of non-banks to offer competing financial services and products, among other things. Failure to comply with laws, regulations or policies could result in sanctions by regulatory agencies, civil money penalties and/or reputational damage, which could have a material adverse effect on Valley’s business, financial condition and results of operations. Valley’s compliance with certain of these laws will also be considered by banking regulators when reviewing bank merger and bank holding company acquisitions.
We are subject to numerous laws designed to protect consumers, including the Community Reinvestment Act and fair lending laws, and failure to comply with these laws could lead to a wide variety of sanctions.
The Community Reinvestment Act, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the Fair Housing Act and other fair lending laws and regulations impose community investment and nondiscriminatory lending requirements on financial institutions. The
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Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Department of Justice and other federal agencies are responsible for enforcing these laws and regulations. A successful regulatory challenge to an institution’s performance under the Community Reinvestment Act, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the Fair Housing Act or other fair lending laws and regulations could result in a wide variety of sanctions, including damages and civil money penalties, injunctive relief, restrictions on mergers and acquisitions, restrictions on expansion and restrictions on entering new business lines. Private parties also may challenge an institution’s performance under fair lending laws in litigation. Such actions could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Changes in accounting policies or accounting standards could cause us to change the manner in which we report our financial results and condition in adverse ways and could subject us to additional costs and expenses.
Valley’s accounting policies are fundamental to understanding its financial results and condition. Some of these policies require the use of estimates and assumptions that may affect the value of Valley’s assets or liabilities and financial results. Valley identified its accounting policies regarding the allowance for credit losses, goodwill and other intangible assets, and income taxes to be critical because they require management to make difficult, subjective and complex judgments about matters that are inherently uncertain. Under each of these policies, it is possible that materially different amounts would be reported under different conditions, using different assumptions, or as new information becomes available.
From time to time, the FASB and the SEC change their guidance governing the form and content of Valley’s external financial statements. In addition, accounting standard setters and those who interpret U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP), such as the FASB, SEC and banking regulators may change or even reverse their previous interpretations or positions on how these standards should be applied. Such changes are expected to continue and may accelerate dependent upon the FASB and International Accounting Standards Board commitments to achieving convergence between U.S. GAAP and International Financial Reporting Standards. Changes in U.S. GAAP and changes in current interpretations are beyond Valley’s control, can be hard to predict and could materially impact how Valley reports its financial results and condition. In certain cases, Valley could be required to apply new or revised guidance retroactively or apply existing guidance differently (also retroactively) which may result in Valley restating prior period financial statements for material amounts. Additionally, significant changes to U.S. GAAP may require costly technology changes, additional training and personnel, and other expenses that will negatively impact our results of operations.
Claims and litigation could result in significant expenses, losses and damage to our reputation.
From time to time as part of Valley’s normal course of business, customers, bankruptcy trustees, former customers, contractual counterparties, third parties and current and former employees make claims and take legal action against Valley based on actions or inactions of Valley. If such claims and legal actions are not resolved in a manner favorable to Valley, they may result in financial liability and/or adversely affect the market perception of Valley and its products and services. This may also impact customer demand for Valley’s products and services. Any financial liability could have a material adverse effect on Valley’s financial condition and results of operations. Any reputation damage could have a material adverse effect on Valley’s business.
Risks Related to an Investment in our Securities
We may reduce or eliminate the cash dividend on our common stock, which could adversely affect the market price of our common stock.
Holders of our common stock are only entitled to receive such cash dividends as our Board of Directors may declare out of funds legally available for such payments. Although we have historically declared cash dividends on our common stock, we are not required to do so and may reduce or eliminate our common stock cash dividend in the future depending upon our results of operations, financial condition or other metrics. This reduction or elimination of our dividend could adversely affect the market price of our common stock.
If our subsidiaries are unable to pay dividends or make distributions to us, we may be unable to make dividend payments to our preferred and common shareholders or interest payments on our long-term borrowings and junior subordinated debentures issued to capital trusts.
We are a separate and distinct legal entity from our banking and non-banking subsidiaries and depend on dividends, distributions, and other payments from the Bank and its non-banking subsidiaries to fund cash dividend payments on our preferred and common stock and to fund most payments on our other obligations. Regulations relating to capital requirements affect the ability of the Bank to pay dividends and other distributions to us and to make loans to us. Additionally, if our subsidiaries’ earnings are not sufficient to make dividend payments to us while maintaining adequate capital levels, we may not be able to make dividend payments to our preferred and common shareholders or interest payments on our long-term
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borrowings and junior subordinated debentures issued to capital trusts. Furthermore, our right to participate in a distribution of assets upon a subsidiary’s liquidation or reorganization is subject to the prior claims of the subsidiary’s creditors.
Future acquisitions may dilute shareholder value, especially tangible book value per share.
We regularly evaluate opportunities to acquire other financial institutions. Future mergers or acquisitions involving cash, debt, or equity securities may occur at any time. Acquisitions typically involve the payment of a premium over book and market values, and therefore, some dilution of our tangible book value per common share may occur in connection with any future acquisitions.
Future offerings of common stock, preferred stock, debt or other securities may adversely affect the market price of our stock and dilute the holdings of existing shareholders.
In the future, we may increase our capital resources or, if our or the Bank’s actual or projected capital ratios fall below or near the current (Basel III) regulatory required minimums, we or the Bank could be forced to raise additional capital by making additional offerings of common stock, preferred stock or debt securities. Additional equity offerings may dilute the holdings of our existing shareholders or reduce the market price of our common stock, or both. Holders of our common stock are not entitled to preemptive rights or other protections against dilution. Upon liquidation, holders of our debt securities and shares of preferred stock, and lenders with respect to other borrowings will receive distributions of our available assets prior to the holders of our common stock. See Note 18 to the consolidated financial statements for more details on our common and preferred stock.
Item 1B. Unresolved Staff Comments
None.