Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors.
Other than the additional risk factors below related to COVID-19, there have been no material changes from the risk factors previously disclosed in response to “ Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors ” of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 and “ Part II – Item 1A. Risk Factors ” of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2020, which risk factors are incorporated by reference herein.
The current outbreak of the novel coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease it causes have significantly adversely impacted and disrupted, and is expected to continue to significantly adversely impact and disrupt, our business, financial performance and condition, operating results and cash flows.
Since first being reported in December 2019, COVID-19 has spread globally, including to every state in the United States. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, and on March 13, 2020, the United States declared a national emergency with respect to COVID-19.
The outbreak of COVID-19 has had and continues to have, and another pandemic in the future could similarly have, significant repercussions across regional and global economies and financial markets. The global impact of the outbreak has been rapidly evolving and many countries, including the United States, reacted by instituting a wide variety of control measures including states of emergency, mandatory quarantines, implementing "shelter in place" orders, border closures, and restricting travel and large gatherings. We have been and expect to continue to be negatively affected by additional governmental regulations and travel advisories to fight the pandemic, including recommendations by the U.S. Department of State, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a global recession.
COVID-19 has disrupted and has had a significant adverse effect on, and will continue to significantly adversely impact and disrupt, our business, financial performance and condition, operating results and cash flows. The effects of the pandemic on the hotel industry are unprecedented. Global demand for lodging has been drastically reduced and occupancy levels have reached historic lows. Since late February, we have experienced a significant decline in occupancy and RevPAR associated with COVID-19 throughout our portfolio, and by March 31, 2020, we had temporarily suspended operations at 38 of our 60 properties ( 18 of which are still suspended as of August 6, 2020 ). The remainder of our properties are currently operating at reduced levels. We may need or elect to temporarily suspend the operations at additional hotels in the future as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the vast majority of our group business through the remainder of 2020 has now been canceled and we are seeing a significant reduction in new reservations. Additionally, travel, especially business and leisure travel in the United States, where all of our hotels are located, has continued to be adversely affected as result of COVID-19. It is not currently known when the suspended operations at our hotel properties will resume at any level, when our hotels operating at a reduced capacity will return to regular operations or if we will need to suspend operations or decrease capacity at additional hotel properties in the future, including as a result of government regulation, an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases or changes in business and other consumer preferences for travel. Additional factors that would negatively impact our ability to successfully operate during or following COVID-19 or another pandemic, or that could otherwise significantly adversely impact and disrupt our business, financial performance and condition, operating results and cash flows, include:
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sustained negative consumer or business sentiment, economic metrics (including unemployment levels, discretionary spending and declines in personal wealth) or demand for travel, including beyond the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lifting of travel restrictions and advisories, which could further adversely impact demand for lodging;
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an expansion of the number of postponed and cancelled conferences and similar events;
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our inability to reopen our hotels in a timely manner, or our inability to attract customers to our hotels when we are able to reopen;
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a change in government regulations;
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our growth strategy could be negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, including limiting opportunities to acquire new properties, and we may be required to dispose of properties to meet liquidity needs;
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increased costs to maintain hotels, including hotels whose operations are suspended, and increased sanitation and hygiene requirements, social distancing and other mitigation measures at hotels that continue to operate or that begin operating again;
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the scaling back or delay of a significant amount of planned capital expenditures, including planned renovation projects, which could adversely affect the value of our properties and guest experience at our properties;
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our estimated cash burn rates are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including uncertainties related to hotel working capital needs as well as the terms of any financing available to us. Accordingly, it is possible that our monthly cash burn rate could be significantly higher than the levels we currently anticipate, which could mean we do not have sufficient liquidity to withstand the suspension of our operations for the remainder of 2020;
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reduction or elimination of quarterly dividends;
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significant non-cash impairment charges due to adverse effects on our properties from reduced travel demand;
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our increased indebtedness and decreased operating revenues, which could increase our risk of default on our loans;
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continued volatility of our stock price;
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our dependence on our hotel managers, who are facing similar challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic;
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disruptions in our supply chains, which may impact our hotels that are still operating;
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fluctuations in regional and local economies;
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the continued service and availability of personnel, including our senior leadership team and key field personnel, such as general managers, and our ability to recruit, attract and retain skilled personnel to the extent our management or personnel are impacted by the outbreak of pandemic or epidemic disease and are not available or allowed to conduct work;
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disruptions as a result of corporate employees working remotely, including risk of cybersecurity incidents and disruptions to internal control procedures; and
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benefits of government action to provide financial support to affected industries, including the travel and hospitality industry, may not be available to us or our operators.
Moreover, many risk factors set forth in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 should be interpreted as heightened risks as a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, historical data regarding our business, properties, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity prior to the first quarter of 2020 does not reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures, and therefore comparability of our results between periods may be limited.
The significance, extent and duration of the impacts caused by the COVID-19 outbreak on our business, financial condition, operating results and cash flows, remains largely uncertain and dependent on future developments that cannot be accurately predicted at this time, such as the continued severity, duration (including the extent of any resurgences in the future), transmission rate and geographic spread of COVID-19 in the United States, the extent and effectiveness of the containment measures taken, the timing of and manner in which containment efforts are reduced or lifted, the timing and ability of vaccinations and other treatments to combat COVID-19, and the response of the overall economy, the financial markets and the population, particularly in areas in which we operate, once the current containment measures are reduced or lifted. As a result, we cannot provide an estimate of the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business or when, or if, we will be able to resume normal, pre-COVID-19 level operations. Nevertheless, COVID-19 presents material uncertainty and risk with respect to our business, financial performance and condition, operating results and cash flows.
The spread of the COVID-19 outbreak has caused severe disruptions in the U.S. and global economy and financial markets and could potentially create widespread business continuity issues of an as yet unknown magnitude and duration, which may impact our liquidity and access to capital.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also caused, and is likely to continue to cause, severe economic, market and other disruptions worldwide. We cannot assure you that conditions in the bank lending, capital and other financial markets will not continue to deteriorate as a result of the pandemic, or that our access to capital and other sources of funding will not become constrained, which could adversely affect the availability and terms of future borrowings, renewals or refinancings.
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In addition, the terms of future debt agreements could include more restrictive covenants or require incremental collateral, which may restrict our business operations or make such debt unavailable due to our covenant restrictions then in effect. There is no guarantee that debt financings will be available in the future to fund our ob ligations, or that they will be available on terms consistent with our expectations.
While we have taken several steps to preserve capital and increase liquidity as described under “Liquidity and Capital Resources,” our short-term liquidity needs are still significant, including funds necessary to pay for operating expenses and other expenditures, including reimbursements to our hotel managers for payroll and related benefits, costs associated with the operation of our hotels, interest and scheduled principal payments on our outstanding indebtedness, capital expenditures for renovations and maintenance at our hotels (to the extent not deferred for 2020) and corporate general and administrative expenses. Additionally, many of the other expenses associated with our hotels are relatively fixed, including portions of rent expense, property taxes and insurance. Since we generally are unable to decrease these costs significantly or rapidly when demand for our hotels decreases, the resulting decline in our revenues due to COVID-19 may have a greater adverse effect on our net cash flow, margins and profits. We may take actions in the near term to improve our liquidity, such as the issuance of additional debt, equity or equity-linked securities, if we determine that doing so would be beneficial to us. However, there can be no assurance as to the timing of any such issuance or that any such additional financing will be completed on favorable terms, or at all, due to the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy and our business as described above.
Additionally, a prolonged economic recession, including lower GDP growth, corporate earnings, consumer confidence and employment rates, could result in significantly below-average lodging demand by both group and transient travelers that continues beyond the lifting of travel and other government restrictions and after the COVID-19 pandemic has largely subsided. There can also be no guarantee that the demand for lodging, and consumer confidence in travel generally, will recover as quickly as other industries. All of the above factors could materially negatively impact our business, financial performance and condition, operating results and cash flows.
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