Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors
We refer you to our Annual Report on Form 10-K for a discussion of the risk factors that affect our business and financial results. We wish to caution you that the risk factors discussed in “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, elsewhere in this report or other SEC filings, could cause future results to differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statements. COVID-19 has also had the effect of heightening many of the other risks described in the “Risk Factors” included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, such as those relating to our need to generate sufficient cash flows to service our indebtedness, and our ability to comply with the covenants contained in the agreements that govern our indebtedness.
Other than updates to the risk factors set forth below, there have been no material changes in our risk factors from those disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K.
COVID-19 has had, and is expected to continue to have, a significant impact on our financial condition and operations. The current, and uncertain future, impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, including its effect on the ability or desire of people to travel (including on cruises), is expected to continue to impact our results, operations, outlook, plans, goals, growth, reputation, cash flows, liquidity, demand for voyages and share price.
In late 2019, an outbreak of COVID-19 was identified in Wuhan, China. The COVID-19 outbreak has since spread and grown globally, including within the United States and, in March 2020, the President of the United States declared a national emergency. The spread of COVID-19 and the recent developments surrounding the global pandemic are having significant negative impacts on all aspects of our business. In March 2020, we implemented a voluntary suspension of all cruise voyages across our three brands, which has subsequently been extended through October 31, 2020. The suspension may be extended again, and the total length of the suspension may be prolonged. All guests were disembarked from the 28 ships in the Company’s fleet by March 28, 2020. We have actively worked to disembark the vast majority of our crew members who will not remain with our ships through the suspension and transport them safely to their home countries, but our ability to transport crew to and from our ships in the future is dependent on a number of factors, including the ability to transport crew members to their home countries, due to the limited number of commercial flights and charter options available, and governmental restrictions and regulations with respect to disembarking crew members. In addition, we have been, and will continue to be further, negatively impacted by related developments, including heightened governmental regulations and travel advisories, including recommendations and orders by the U.S. Department of State, the CDC and the Department of Homeland Security, and travel bans and restrictions, including the CDC’s No Sail Order, each of which has impacted, and is expected to continue to significantly impact, global guest sourcing and our access to various ports of call.
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To date, the outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in significant costs and lost revenue as a result of the suspension of sailings, reduced demand for cruise vacations, guest compensation, itinerary modifications, redeployments and cancellations, travel restrictions and advisories, the unavailability of ports and/or destinations, costs to return our passengers and certain crew members to their home destinations and expenses to assist some of our crew that have been unable to return home with food and housing. We will continue to incur COVID-19 related costs as we sanitize our ships and implement additional health-related protocols on our ships, such as social distancing measures, which may have a significant effect on our operations. In addition, the industry may be subject to enhanced health and safety requirements in the future which may be costly and take a significant amount of time to implement across our fleet. Between March 12, 2020 and April 30, 2020, three class action lawsuits were filed against the Company under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Rule 10b-5 promulgated thereunder, alleging that the Company made false and misleading statements to the market and customers about COVID-19. In addition, in March 2020 the Florida Attorney General announced an investigation related to the Company’s marketing during the COVID-19 outbreak. Following the announcement of the investigation by the Florida Attorney General, we received notifications from other attorneys general and governmental agencies that they are conducting similar investigations. We may be the subject of additional lawsuits and investigations stemming from COVID-19. We cannot predict the number or outcome of any such proceedings and the impact that they will have on our financial results, but any such impact may be material.
We have nine newbuilds on order, scheduled to be delivered through 2027. The impacts of COVID-19 on the shipyards where our ships are under construction (or will be constructed) have resulted in some delays in expected ship deliveries, and the impacts of COVID-19 could result in additional delays in ship deliveries in the future, which may be prolonged.
We cannot predict when any of our ships will begin to sail again or when ports will reopen to our ships. Moreover, even once travel advisories and restrictions are lifted, demand for cruises may remain weak for a significant length of time and we cannot predict if and when each brand will return to pre-outbreak demand or pricing. Due to the discretionary nature of leisure travel spending and the competitive nature of the cruise industry, our revenues are heavily influenced by the condition of the U.S. economy and economies in other regions of the world. Unfavorable conditions in these broader economies have resulted, and may result in the future, in decreased demand for cruise vacations, changes in booking practices and related reactions by our competitors, all of which in turn have had, and may have in the future, a strong negative effect on our business. In particular, our bookings may be negatively impacted by concerns that cruises are susceptible to the spread of infectious diseases as well as adverse changes in the perceived or actual economic climate, including higher unemployment rates, declines in income levels and loss of personal wealth resulting from the impact of COVID-19. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated decline in economic activity and increase in unemployment levels are expected to have a severe and prolonged effect on the global economy generally and, in turn, is expected to depress demand for cruise vacations into the foreseeable future. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the duration and severity of this pandemic, we can provide no assurance as to when and at what pace demand for cruise vacations will return to pre-pandemic levels, if at all. Accordingly, we cannot predict the full impact of COVID-19 on our business, financial condition and results of operations. In addition, we cannot predict the impact COVID-19 will have on our partners, such as travel agencies, suppliers and other vendors. We may be adversely impacted by any adverse impact our partners suffer.
This is the first time we have completely suspended our cruise voyages, and as a result of these unprecedented circumstances we are not able to predict the full impact of such a suspension on our Company. In particular, we cannot predict the impact on our financial performance and our cash flows required for cash refunds of fares for cancelled sailings as a result of the suspension in our cruise voyages, which may be prolonged, and the public’s concern regarding the health and safety of travel, including by cruise ship, and related decreases in demand for travel and cruising. Depending on the length of the suspension and level of guest acceptance of future cruise credits, we may be required to provide cash refunds for a substantial portion of the balance, as guests on cancelled sailings were automatically awarded future cruise credits and have the opportunity to contact us instead to request a cash refund. Cash refunds are estimated to be, based on behavior to date, approximately 60% of the Company’s balance of advance ticket sales during the suspension of voyages. There can be no assurance that the percentage of passengers that accept future cruise certificates over cash refunds during the suspension of cruise voyages will remain in this range as the number of cancelled voyages increases.
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Moreover, our ability to attract and retain guests and crew depends, in part, upon the perception and reputation of our Company and our brands and the public’s concerns regarding the health and safety of travel generally, as well as regarding the cruise industry and our ships. Actual or perceived risk of infection could have an adverse effect on the public’s perception of the Company, which could harm our reputation and business.
As a result of the impacts of COVID-19, provisions in our credit card processing and other commercial agreements may adversely affect our liquidity. We have agreements with several credit card companies to process the sale of tickets and provide other services. Under these agreements, the credit card companies could, under certain circumstances and upon written notice, require us to maintain a reserve, which reserve could be funded by the credit card companies withholding or offsetting our credit card receivables, or our posting of cash or other collateral. As a result of the impacts of COVID-19, we have seen an increase in demand from consumers for refunds on their tickets, and we anticipate this will continue to be the case for the near future. Requests for refunds may reduce our liquidity and risk triggering liquidity covenants in these processing agreements and, in doing so, could force us to post cash or other collateral as a reserve with the credit card processing companies in accordance with the terms of our agreements with them. Currently, we have agreed to provide a reserve consisting of $70 million of cash and preliminarily agreed to provide second priority liens on certain ships with a collective equity value of $700 million based on appraisals as of December 31, 2019, which could be increased or decreased based on certain conditions. If we do not meet an agreed upon minimum liquidity in the future, we may be required to pledge additional collateral and/or post cash reserves or take other actions that may reduce our liquidity. As a consequence, our financial position and liquidity could be materially impacted.
As a result of all of the foregoing, we expect a net loss on both a U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis for the year ending December 31, 2020. Our ability to forecast our cash inflows and additional capital needs is hampered, and we could be required to raise additional capital in the future. Our access to and cost of financing will depend on, among other things, global economic conditions, conditions in the global financing markets, the availability of sufficient amounts of financing, our prospects and our credit ratings. In March 2020, Moody’s downgraded the long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings of NCLC to Ba2 from Ba1, including its corporate family rating and senior secured bank facility, and to B1 from Ba2 on its senior unsecured rating; and in July 2020, Moody’s placed our ratings on review for potential downgrade. In April 2020, S&P Global downgraded the issuer credit rating of NCLC to BB- from BB+ and, in May 2020, based on our recent debt offering, lowered the issuer-level rating on NCLC’s senior unsecured notes to B+ from BB- and placed our issuer rating on credit watch with negative implications. If our credit ratings were to be further downgraded, or general market conditions were to ascribe higher risk to our rating levels, our industry, or us, our access to capital and the cost of any debt or equity financing will be further negatively impacted. There is no guarantee that debt or equity financings will be available in the future to fund our obligations, or that they will be available on terms consistent with our expectations.
The agreements governing our indebtedness contain, and any instruments governing future indebtedness of ours may contain, covenants that impose significant operating and financial restrictions on us, including restrictions or prohibitions on our ability to, among other things: incur or guarantee additional debt or issue certain preference shares; pay dividends on or make distributions in respect of our share capital or make other restricted payments, including the ability of the Company’s subsidiaries to pay dividends or make distributions to the Company; repurchase or redeem capital stock or subordinated indebtedness; make certain investments or acquisitions; transfer, sell or create liens on certain assets; and consolidate or merge with, or sell or otherwise dispose of all or substantially all of our assets to other companies. As a result of these covenants, we are limited in the manner in which we conduct our business, and we may be unable to engage in favorable business activities or finance future operations or capital needs. The terms of any instruments governing future indebtedness may also require us to provide incremental collateral, which may further restrict our business operations.
In addition, the COVID-19 outbreak has significantly increased economic and demand uncertainty. The current outbreak and continued spread of COVID-19 may cause a global recession, which would have a further adverse impact on our financial condition and operations, and this impact could exist for an extended period of time.
The extent of the effects of the outbreak on our business and the cruise industry at large is highly uncertain and will ultimately depend on future developments, many of which are outside of our control, including, but not limited to, the duration, spread, severity and any recurrence of the outbreak, the duration and scope of related federal, state and local
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government orders and restrictions, the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on overall demand for cruise vacations and the length of time it takes for demand and pricing to return and normal economic and operating conditions to resume, all of which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted. COVID-19 has also had the effect of heightening many of the other risks described in the “Risk Factors” described herein and included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, such as those relating to our need to generate sufficient cash flows to service our indebtedness, and our ability to comply with the covenants contained in the agreements that govern our indebtedness.
We could need additional financing in the future, which may not be available on favorable terms, or at all, and may be dilutive to existing shareholders.
We could need additional equity or debt financing to fund our operations in the future, especially if our suspension of cruise voyages is prolonged. We may be unable to obtain any desired additional financing on terms favorable to us, or at all, depending on market and other conditions. The ability to raise additional financing depends on numerous factors that are outside of our control, including general economic and market conditions, the health of financial institutions, our credit ratings and investors’ and lenders’ assessments of our prospects and the prospects of the cruise industry in general, all of which may be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. If we raise additional funds through equity or debt issuances, our shareholders could experience dilution of their ownership interest, and these securities could have rights, preferences, and privileges that are superior to that of holders of our ordinary shares. If we raise additional funds by issuing debt, we may be subject to limitations on our operations due to restrictive covenants, which may be more restrictive than the covenants in our existing debt agreements, and we may be required to further encumber our assets. We may not have sufficient available collateral to pledge to support additional financing. If adequate funds are not available on acceptable terms, or at all, we may be unable to fund our operations, or respond to competitive pressures, any of which could negatively affect our business. There can be no assurance that our ability to otherwise access the credit or credit markets will not be adversely affected by changes in the financial markets and the global economy or that such financing will be available to us in sufficient amounts or on acceptable terms. If we are not able to fulfill our liquidity needs through operating cash flows and/or borrowings under credit facilities or otherwise in the capital markets, our business and financial condition could be adversely affected and it may be necessary for us to reorganize our company in its entirety, including through bankruptcy proceedings, and our shareholders may lose their investment in our ordinary shares.
Any further impairment of our tradenames or goodwill could adversely affect our financial condition and operating results.
We evaluate tradenames and goodwill for impairment on an annual basis, or more frequently when circumstances indicate that the carrying value of a reporting unit may not be recoverable. Several factors including a challenging operating environment, impacts affecting consumer demand or spending, the deterioration of general macroeconomic conditions, or other factors could result in a change to the future cash flows we expect to derive from our operations. Reductions of the cash flows used in the impairment analyses may result in the recording of an impairment charge to a reporting unit’s tradename or goodwill. During the three months ended March 31, 2020, we recognized a goodwill impairment loss of $1.3 billion. See Note 4 —“Intangible Assets” for additional information. As of June 30, 2020, there was $98.1 million of goodwill for the Regent Seven Seas reporting unit after impairment. We also recognized an impairment loss for our Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises tradenames during the three months ended March 31, 2020 in an aggregate amount of $317.0 million, with $500.5 million remaining as of June 30, 2020. We believe that we have made reasonable estimates and judgments. However, a change in our estimated future operating cash flows may result in a decline in fair value in future periods, which may result in a need to recognize additional impairment charges.
Any potential government disaster relief assistance, or other governmental assistance due to the impacts of COVID-19, could impose significant limitations on our corporate activities and may not be on terms favorable to us.
If any government agrees to provide disaster relief assistance, or other assistance due to the impacts of COVID-19, it may impose certain requirements on the recipients of the relief including restrictions on executive officer compensation, share buybacks, dividends, prepayment of debt and other similar restrictions until the relief is repaid or redeemed in full. We cannot assure you that any legislation to provide government disaster relief assistance, or other governmental
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assistance to us due to the impacts of COVID-19, will be approved and, even if approved, will not significantly limit our corporate activities or be on terms that are favorable to us. Such restrictions and terms could adversely impact our business and operations.
The accounting for our exchangeable notes issued in July of 2020 may be different for NCLC than for NCLH.
We have a holding company structure, whereby NCLH owns 100% of the equity interests in NCLC. Both NCLH and NCLC prepare audited financial statements that they file with the SEC (NCLC on a voluntary basis). Because the shares ultimately issuable upon conversion of the exchangeable notes issued by NCLC are ordinary shares of NCLH, the accounting treatment of this conversion feature at each entity may be different.
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