Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
Market Risk and Interest Rate Sensitivity
General
Market risk represents the risk of loss due to changes in market values of assets and liabilities. The Company incurs market risk in the normal course of business through exposures to market interest rates, equity prices, and credit spreads. As of December 31, 2024, the Company has identified interest rate risk as our primary source of market risk.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is the risk to earnings and value arising from changes in market interest rates. Interest rate risk arises from timing differences in the repricings and maturities of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities (repricing risk), changes in the expected maturities of assets and liabilities arising from embedded options, such as borrowers’ ability to prepay home mortgage loans at any time and depositors’ ability to redeem certificates of deposit before maturity (option risk), changes in the shape of the yield curve where interest rates increase or decrease in a nonparallel fashion (yield curve risk), and changes in spread relationships between different yield curves, such as U.S. Treasuries and SOFR (basis risk).
The Company’s Board of Directors establishes broad policy limits with respect to interest rate risk. As part of this policy, the asset liability committee of the Company, or ALCO, establishes specific operating guidelines within the parameters of the Board of Director’s policies. In general, the ALCO focuses on ensuring a stable and steadily increasing flow of net interest income through managing the size and mix of the balance sheet. The management of interest rate risk is an active process which encompasses monitoring loan and deposit flows complemented by investment and funding activities. Effective management of interest rate risk begins with understanding the dynamic characteristics of assets and liabilities and determining the appropriate interest rate risk posture given business forecasts, management objectives, market expectations, and policy constraints.
An asset sensitive position refers to a balance sheet position in which an increase in short-term interest rates is expected to generate higher net interest income, as rates earned on our interest-earning assets would reprice upward more quickly than rates paid on our interest-bearing liabilities, thus expanding our net interest margin. Conversely, a liability sensitive position refers to a balance sheet position in which an increase in short-term interest rates is expected to generate lower net interest income, as rates paid on our interest-bearing liabilities would reprice upward more quickly than rates earned on our interest-earning assets, thus compressing our net interest margin.
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Interest rate risk measurement is calculated and reported to the ALCO at least quarterly. The information reported includes period-end results and identifies any policy limits exceeded, along with an assessment of the policy limit breach and the action plan and timeline for resolution, mitigation, or assumption of the risk.
Evaluation of Interest Rate Risk
We use income simulations, an analysis of core funding utilization, and economic value of equity (EVE) simulations as our primary tools in measuring and managing interest rate risk. These tools are utilized to quantify the potential earnings impact of changing interest rates over a 12-month simulation horizon (income simulations) as well as identify expected earnings trends given longer term rate cycles (long term simulations, core funding utilizations, and EVE simulation). A standard gap report and funding matrix will also be utilized to provide supporting detailed information on the expected timing of cashflow and repricing opportunities.
There are an infinite number of potential interest rate scenarios, each of which can be accompanied by differing economic, political, and regulatory climates; can generate multiple differing behavior patterns by markets, borrowers, depositors, and other market participants; and can last for varying degrees of time. Therefore, by definition, interest rate risk sensitivity cannot be predicted with certainty. Accordingly, the Company’s interest rate risk measurement philosophy focuses on maintaining an appropriate balance between theoretical and practical scenarios; especially given the primary objective of the Company’s overall asset/liability management process is to facilitate meaningful strategy development and implementation.
Therefore, we model a set of interest rate scenarios capturing the financial effects of a range of plausible rate scenarios, the collective impact of which will enable the Company to clearly understand the nature and extent of its sensitivity to interest rate changes. Doing so necessitates an assessment of rate changes over varying time horizons and of varying/sufficient degrees such that the impact of embedded options within the balance sheet are sufficiently examined.
We utilize a simulation model as our primary tool to assess the direction and magnitude of variations in net interest income and EVE resulting from potential changes in market interest rates. Key assumptions in the model, which we believe are reasonable but which may have a significant impact on results, include: (i) the timing of changes in interest rates; (ii) shifts or rotations in the yield curve; (iii) re-pricing characteristics for market-rate-sensitive instruments; (iv) varying loan prepayment speeds for different interest rate scenarios; and (v) the overall growth and mix of assets and liabilities.
We forecast the next twelve months of net interest income under an assumed environment of gradual changes in market interest rates under various scenarios. The resulting change in net interest income is an indication of the sensitivity of our earnings to directional changes in market interest rates. The simulation also measures the change in EVE, or the net present value of our assets and liabilities, under an immediate shift, or shock, in interest rates under various scenarios, as calculated by discounting the estimated future cash flows using market-based discount rates.
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The following table shows the impact of changes in interest rates on net interest income over the next twelve months and EVE based on our balance sheet as of December 31, 2024 (dollars in millions):
EVE
%Change
NII
%Change
-400
$
388
-8.8
%
$
62.4
1.4
%
-300
$
413
-3.0
%
$
62.2
0.9
%
-200
$
434
1.9
%
$
61.6
0.0
%
-100
$
438
2.9
%
$
61.4
-0.3
%
Base
$
425
0.0
%
$
61.6
0.0
%
+100
$
402
-5.5
%
$
61.4
-0.3
%
+200
$
362
-14.8
%
$
60.8
-1.3
%
+300
$
308
-27.5
%
$
59.3
-3.7
%
+400
$
252
-40.7
%
$
57.6
-6.6
%
If interest rates across the yield curve were to uniformly decrease, this analysis suggests that the Bank may be positioned for relatively neutral to positive improvements in net interest income over the next twelve months. If interest rates across the yield curve were to uniformly increase, this analysis suggests we would experience a reduction in net interest income over the next twelve months.
We also forecast the impact of immediate and parallel interest rate shocks on net interest income under various scenarios to measure the sensitivity of our earnings under extreme conditions.
In addition to changes in interest rates, the level of future net interest income is also dependent on a number of other variables, including: the growth, composition and absolute levels of loans, deposits, and other earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities; economic and competitive conditions; potential changes in lending, investing and deposit gathering strategies; and client preferences.
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