Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
ITEM 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Changes in commodity prices (mainly crude oil and unleaded gasoline) and interest rates are our primary sources of market risk. When we make the decision to manage our market exposure, our objective is generally to avoid losses from adverse price changes, realizing we will not obtain the gains of beneficial price changes.
Impact of Changing Prices
Our revenues and cash flows, as well as estimates of future cash flows, are sensitive to changes in energy prices. Major shifts in the cost of crude oil, the prices of refined products and the cost of ethanol can generate large changes in the operating margin in each of our segments.
We maintain, at both company-owned and third-party facilities, inventories of crude oil, feedstocks and refined petroleum products, the values of which are subject to wide fluctuations in market prices driven by world economic conditions, regional and global inventory levels and seasonal conditions. Effective January 1, 2022, we changed our method for valuing the inventory held at the Tyler refinery to the first-in, first-out ("FIFO") inventory valuation method from the last-in, first-out ("LIFO") inventory valuation method. At December 31, 2021, we held approximately 13.0 million barrels of crude and product inventories associated with the Tyler, El Dorado, Big Spring and Krotz Springs refineries valued under FIFO, with an average cost of $80.23 per barrel. At December 31, 2022, we held approximately 15 million barrels of crude and product inventories associated with the Tyler, El Dorado, Big Spring and Krotz Springs refineries valued under FIFO, with an average cost of $81.88 per barrel.
In periods of declining crude oil and refined product pricing, market prices may decline to a level below the average cost of our inventories For the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, we recognized net inventory valuation (losses) gains of $(11.2) million, $(9.3) million and $(0.8) million, respectively, which were recorded as a component of cost of materials and other in the consolidated statements of income.
From time to time, we also may enter into forward purchase or sale derivative contracts for trading purposes (primarily in our Canadian business) and, as a result, may have trading investment commodities on hand related to the purchased inventory. Such derivative contracts and related investment commodities are recorded at fair value and subject to pricing risk each period with changes in fair value reflected in other operating income, net in the profit and loss section of our consolidated financial statements. For the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, the majority of our forward purchase and sales contracts that were accounted for as derivative instruments consisted of contracts related to our Canadian trading activities.
Price Risk Management Activities
At times, we enter into the following instruments/transactions in order to manage our market-indexed pricing risk: commodity derivative contracts which we use to manage our price exposure to our inventory positions, future purchases of crude oil and ethanol, future sales of refined products or to fix margins on future production; and future commitments to purchase or sell RINs at fixed prices and quantities, which are used to manage the costs associated with our RINs obligations and meet the definition of derivative instruments under Accounting Standards Codification ("ASC") 815, Derivatives and Hedging ("ASC 815"). In accordance with ASC 815, all of these commodity contracts and future purchase commitments are recorded at fair value, and any change in fair value between periods has historically been recorded in the profit and loss section of our consolidated financial statements. Occasionally, at inception, the Company will elect to designate the commodity derivative contracts as cash flow hedges under ASC 815. Gains or losses on commodity derivative contracts accounted for as cash flow hedges
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Management's Discussion and Analysis
are recognized in other comprehensive income on the consolidated balance sheets and, ultimately, when the forecasted transactions are completed in net revenues or cost of materials and other in the consolidated statements of income.
The following table sets forth information relating to our open commodity derivative contracts, excluding our trading derivative contracts (which are presented separately below), as of December 31, 2022 ($ in millions):
Total Outstanding Notional Contract Volume by Year of Maturity
Contract Description Fair Value Notional Contract Volume 2023 2024
Contracts not designated as hedging instruments:
Crude oil price swaps - long (1)
$ (5.3) 74,009,000 68,680,000 5,329,000
Crude oil price swaps - short (1)
10.7 71,035,000 65,700,000 5,335,000
Inventory, refined product and crack spread swaps - long (1)
10.4 3,303,000 3,303,000 —
Inventory, refined product and crack spread swaps - short (1)
(27.8) 6,010,000 6,010,000 —
Natural gas swaps - long (3)
(7.5) 2,030,000 2,030,000 —
Natural gas swaps - short (3)
0.7 280,000 280,000 —
RINs commitment contracts - long (2)
(0.1) 217,350,000 — —
RINs commitment contracts - short (2)
3.2 41,672,967 — —
Total $ (15.7)
(1) Volume in barrels.
(2) Volume in RINs.
(3) Volume in MMBTU.
Interest Rate Risk
We have market exposure to changes in interest rates relating to our outstanding floating rate borrowings, which totaled approximately $2,470.5 million as of December 31, 2022. The annualized impact of a hypothetical one percent change in interest rates on our floating rate debt outstanding as of December 31, 2022 would be to change interest expense by approximately $24.7 million.
Inflation
Inflationary factors, such as increases in the costs of our inputs, operating expenses, and interest rates may adversely affect our operating results. During 2022, our results of operations were negatively affected by higher natural gas costs, higher labor costs and supply chain disruptions, in part, by the COVID-19 Pandemic, the uncertain economic environment, and macroeconomic and geopolitical events and trends. We expect these cost pressures and supply chain challenges to continue into fiscal year 2023. In addition, current or future governmental policies may increase the risk of inflation, which could further increase costs and may have an adverse effect on our ability to maintain current levels of gross margin and operating expenses as a percentage of sales if the prices at which we are able to sell our products and services do not increase in line with increases in costs.
LIBOR Transition
LIBOR is a commonly used indicative measure of the average interest rate at which major global banks could borrow from one another. The United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority, which regulates LIBOR discontinued the reporting of certain LIBOR rates on December 31, 2021, and has publicly announced that it intends to discontinue all USD LIBOR rates after June 2023. Certain of our agreements used LIBOR as a “benchmark” or “reference rate” for various terms. During 2022, we completed the transition of all agreements form LIBOR to an alternative reference rate. it did not have a significant impact on our business or operations.
Commodity Derivatives Trading Activities
We enter into active trading positions in a variety of commodity derivatives, which include forward physical contracts, swap contracts, and futures contracts. These trading activities are undertaken by using a range of contract types in combination to create incremental gains by capitalizing on crude oil supply and pricing seasonality. These contracts are classified as held for trading and are recognized at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in the income statement.
The following table sets forth information relating to trading commodity derivative contracts as of December 31, 2022 ($ in millions):
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Management's Discussion and Analysis
Total Outstanding Notional Contract Volume by Year of Maturity
Contract Description Fair Value Notional Contract Volume 2023
Crude forward contracts- long (1)
104.6 1,646,520 1,646,520
Crude forward contracts- short (1)
(115.0) 1,773,499 1,773,499
Total $ (10.4)
(1) Volume in barrels.
ITEM 8. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTARY DATA
The information required by Item 8 is incorporated by reference to the section beginning on page F-1.
ITEM 9. CHANGES IN AND DISAGREEMENTS WITH ACCOUNTANTS ON ACCOUNTING AND FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE
None.
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Controls and Procedures, and Other Information