Item 1A. Risk Factors
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS.
There have been no material changes to the risk factors we previously disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2019 that was filed with the SEC on February 7, 2020, other than one new risk factor and the four revised risk factors below.
The global novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could adversely impact our business, operating results and financial condition.
The global COVID-19 pandemic has created significant volatility, disruption and uncertainty. It has resulted in government restrictions, such as “stay-at-home” or “shelter-in-place” directives, quarantines, travel advisories and the implementation of social distancing measures, leading to the closure of businesses and causing weakened economic conditions and resulting in an economic slowdown and recession.
In response to the pandemic and these government restrictions, Century has shifted our sales process to offer additional virtual online tours and appointments and, where permitted, appointment-only in-person meetings that comply with social distancing and other health and safety requirements and protocols. As of the date of this filing, construction and sale of residential real estate has been determined to be an essential business, and accordingly our operations have been exempted from the applicable health orders. We are uncertain as to how long these restrictions will remain in place and whether the COVID-19 public health effort will be intensified to further restrict our business. While these circumstances did not materially adversely affect our second or third quarter 2020 financial results, we recognize that the long term macro-economic effects could ultimately impact the homebuilding industry and our business and future operating results.
The adverse effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the broader economy could negatively impact demand for new homes. Despite strong demand and sales during the second and third quarter of 2020, continued demand for our homes is uncertain in light of higher unemployment rates, decreased consumer confidence, decreased availability of credit, and other factors. This impact on demand for our homes could adversely affect our operating results in future periods. In addition, a decline in our home building operations would have a direct effect on the origination volume of and revenues from our Financial Services segment.
The COVID-19 pandemic may have other adverse effects on our business, operating results and financial condition, including:
costs incurred as a result of necessary actions and preparedness plans to help ensure the health and safety of our employees and continued operations, including remote working accommodations, enhanced cleaning processes, and protocols designed to implement appropriate social distancing practices;
availability of employees, their ability to conduct work away from normal working locations and/or under revised work environment protocols, as well as the general willingness of employees to come to and perform work;
an increase in our use of sales incentives and concessions, which could adversely affect our margins;
an increase in customer cancellations of home purchase contracts;
deteriorating individual credit quality and an increase in default rates on mortgage loans we originated which may expose us to repurchase obligations or other liabilities, reduce our ability to sell or finance the loans we originate or on less favorable terms, lead us to impose stricter loan qualification standards, or result in us no longer being able to offer financing terms that are attractive to potential buyers;
an increase in the costs or decrease in the supply of building materials or the availability of subcontractors and other talent, including as a result of infections or medically necessary or recommended self-quarantining, or governmental mandates to direct production activities to support public health efforts;
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one or more of our suppliers or subcontractors may experience financial distress, cancel, postpone or delay orders, be unable to perform under a contract, file for bankruptcy protection, go out of business, or suffer disruptions in their business or we may need to offer special payment terms or relief to our suppliers and subcontractors, subjecting us heightened credit risk;
increased costs and delays in the completion of our development projects;
decreased land acquisitions and the termination or modification of option contracts to conserve our cash resources;
potential future restructuring, impairment and other charges, which may be material, for inventory impairments or land option contract abandonments, or both;
potential disruption and volatility in the global capital and credit markets, which could adversely affect our ability to access lending, capital markets, and other sources of liquidity when needed and on reasonable terms and costs, or the ability of potential homebuyers to obtain suitable financing, especially if mortgage loan underwriting criteria tighten or default rates increase; and
our ability to comply with the financial covenants in our debt agreements if a material or extended economic downturn occurs.
We are uncertain of the potential full magnitude or duration of the business and economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. This inherent uncertainty, due in part to rapidly changing governmental directives, public health challenges and progress, and market reactions thereto, makes it challenging for our management to estimate the future performance of our business and plan accordingly. The full extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic will impact our business will depend on future developments that are highly uncertain and cannot be accurately predicted, including new information that may emerge concerning COVID-19 and the actions to contain it or treat its impact. Should the potential adverse impacts described above (or others that are currently unknown) occur, whether individually or collectively, we would expect to experience, among other things, decreases in our homes delivered, average selling prices, net new home contracts, revenues and profitability.
Finally, the impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to contain it have heightened the risks in certain of the other risk factors described in our Annual Report Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019.
We are subject to demand fluctuations in the housing industry. Reductions in demand for our homes will adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition.
Demand for our homes is subject to fluctuations, often due to factors outside of our control. In a housing market downturn when demand for our homes decreases, our revenues and results of operations are typically adversely affected; we may have significant inventory impairments and other write-offs; our gross margins may decline significantly from historical levels; and we may incur substantial losses from operations. At any particular time, we cannot predict whether housing market conditions existing at that time will continue. For example, while rising interest rates and tightening affordability created an industry-wide deceleration in housing growth during the second half of 2018 and into 2019, this deceleration reversed during the remainder of 2019 due in part to reduced mortgage rates. More recently, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in mid-March 2020, we began to experience a decrease in demand for our homes which reversed course in May and June of 2020. Despite overall strong demand and sales during the second and third quarter of 2020, continued demand for our homes is uncertain in light of higher unemployment rates, decreased consumer confidence, decreased availability of credit, and other factors, including those described elsewhere in this report.
Adverse changes in general economic conditions typically reduce the demand for our homes which may result in a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The residential homebuilding industry is cyclical and is highly sensitive to changes in local and general economic conditions that are outside our control, including:
consumer confidence, levels of employment, job growth, spending levels, wage and personal income growth, personal indebtedness levels, and household debt-to-income levels of potential homebuyers;
the availability and cost of financing for homebuyers or restrictive mortgage standards, including private and federal mortgage financing programs and federal, state, and provincial regulation of lending practices;
real estate taxes and federal and state income tax provisions, including provisions for the deduction of mortgage interest payments;
U.S. and global financial system and credit markets, including short- and long-term interest rates and inflation;
housing demand from population growth, household formations, new home buying catalysts (such as marriage and children), second home buying catalysts (such as retirement), home sale catalysts (such as an aging population), demographic changes (including immigration levels and trends in urban and suburban migration), generational shifts, or otherwise, or perceptions regarding the strength of the housing market, and home price appreciation and depreciation resulting therefrom;
competition from other real estate investors with significant capital, including other real estate operating companies and developers, institutional investment funds and companies solely focused on single family rentals; and
the supply of new or existing homes, including foreclosures, and other housing alternatives, such as apartments and other residential rental property, and the aging of existing housing inventory.
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In the event these economic and business factors occur, we could experience a decline in the demand and pricing for our homes, an increase in customer cancellations, an increase in selling concessions and downward pressure on the market value of our inventory, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations and increase the risk for asset impairments. The current COVID-19 pandemic has led to weakened economic conditions that have resulted in an economic slowdown and recession. A significant or sustained downturn in the homebuilding market would likely have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations for multiple years.
In addition, an important segment of our customer base consists of first- and second-time move-up buyers, who often purchase homes subject to contingencies related to the sale of their existing homes. If these potential buyers face difficulties in selling their homes, whether due to periods of weak economic conditions, oversupply, high interest rates, restrictive mortgage standards or otherwise, our sales may be adversely affected. Moreover, we may need to reduce our sales prices and offer greater incentives to buyers to compete for sales that may result in reduced margins.
Furthermore, deployments of U.S. military personnel to foreign regions, terrorist attacks, other acts of violence or threats to national security and any corresponding response by the United States or others, related domestic or international instability or civil unrest may cause an economic slowdown in the markets where we operate, which could adversely affect our business.
Increases in unemployment or underemployment typically lead to reduced demand for our homes and an increase in the number of loan delinquencies and property repossessions, which could have an adverse impact on our business and results of operations.
In the United States, the unemployment rate was 3.5% as of the end of December 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a result of impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to contain it, the unemployment rate increased to 7.9% as of the end of September 2020 and it is uncertain how quickly the unemployment rate will improve or if it will further deteriorate. People who are not employed, are underemployed or are concerned about the loss of their jobs are less likely to purchase new homes, may be forced to try to sell the homes they own and may face difficulties in making required mortgage payments. Therefore, an increase in unemployment or underemployment may lead to an increase in the number of loan delinquencies and property repossessions and have an adverse impact on our business by both reducing the demand for the homes we build and increasing the supply of homes for sale, which would also likely adversely affect our Financial Services business, which is dependent upon the sale of our homes. In addition, an increase in unemployment or underemployment may result in increased default rates on mortgage loans we originated, which could expose us to repurchase obligations or other liabilities, reduce our ability to sell or finance the loans we originate or require us to sell or finance the loans we originate on less favorable terms, lead us to impose stricter loan qualification standards, or result in us no longer being able to offer financing terms that are attractive to potential buyers, all of which would adversely affect our Financial Services business.
Our Financial Services segment could be adversely affected by reduced demand for our homes or by a slowdown in mortgage refinancing.
Approximately 98.3% and 81.5% of the mortgage loans made by our Financial Services segment in 2019 and for the nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively, were made to buyers of homes we built. Therefore, a decrease in the demand for our homes would adversely affect the revenues of this segment of our business. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in mid-March 2020, we began to experience a decrease in demand for our homes which reversed course in May and June of 2020. Despite overall strong demand and sales during the second and third quarter of 2020, continued demand for our homes is uncertain in light of higher unemployment rates, decreased consumer confidence, decreased availability of credit, and other factors, including those described elsewhere in this report.
ITEM 2. UNREGISTERED SALES OF EQUITY SECURITIES AND USE OF PROCEEDS.
None.
ITEM 3. DEFAULTS UPON SENIOR SECURITIES.
None.
ITEM 4 . MINE SAFETY DISCLOSURES.
Not applicable.
Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.