COASTAL FINANCIAL CORP 10-Q

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk As a financial institution, our primary component of market risk is interest rate volatility. Our asset liability and funds management policy provides management with the guidelines for effective funds management, and we have established a measurement system for monitoring our net interest rate sensitivity position. We have historically managed our sensitivity position within our established guidelines. Fluctuations in interest rates will ultimately impact both the level of income and expense recorded on most of our assets and liabilities, and the market value of all interest earning assets and interest bearing liabilities, other than those which have a short term to maturity. Interest rate risk is the potential for economic losses due to future interest rate changes. These economic losses can be reflected as a loss of future net interest income and/or a decrease in current fair market values. Our objective is to measure the effect on net interest income and to adjust the balance sheet to minimize the inherent risk while at the same time maximizing income. We manage our exposure to interest rates by structuring our balance sheet in the ordinary course of business. We do not enter into instruments such as leveraged derivatives, financial options, financial future contracts or forward delivery contracts for the purpose of reducing interest rate risk. Based upon the nature of our operations, we are not subject to foreign exchange or commodity price risk. We do not own any trading assets. Our exposure to interest rate risk is managed by the Asset Liability Committee (“ALCO”), of the Bank and reviewed by the Asset Liability and Investment Committee of our board of directors in accordance with policies approved by our board of directors. ALCO formulates strategies based on appropriate levels of interest rate risk. In determining the appropriate level of interest rate risk, ALCO considers the impact on earnings and capital on the current outlook on interest rates, potential changes in interest rates, regional economies, liquidity, business strategies and other factors. ALCO meets regularly to review, among other things, the sensitivity of assets and liabilities to interest rate changes, the book and market values of assets and liabilities, unrealized gains and losses, purchase and sale activities, commitments to originate loans and the maturities of investments and borrowings. Additionally, ALCO reviews liquidity, cash flows, maturities of deposits and consumer and commercial deposit activity. Management employs various methodologies to manage interest rate risk including an analysis of relationships between interest earning assets and interest bearing liabilities and interest rate simulations using a model. The Asset Liability and Investment Committee of our board of directors meets regularly to review the Bank’s interest rate risk profile, liquidity position, including contingent liquidity, and investment portfolio. We use interest rate risk simulation models to test interest rate sensitivity of net interest income and fair value of equity, and the impact of changes in interest rates on other financial metrics. Contractual maturities and re-pricing opportunities of loans are incorporated in the model, as are prepayment assumptions, maturity data and call options within the investment portfolio. Average life of non-maturity deposit accounts are based on historical decay rates and assumptions and are incorporated into the model. The assumptions used are inherently uncertain and, as a result, the model cannot precisely measure future net interest income or precisely predict the impact of fluctuations in market interest rates on net interest income. Actual results will differ from the model’s simulated results due to timing, magnitude and frequency of interest rate changes as well as changes in market conditions and the application and timing of various management strategies. To help ensure the accuracy of the model, we perform a quarterly back test against our actual results. On a quarterly basis, we run multiple simulations under two different premises of which one is a static balance sheet and the other is a dynamic growth balance sheet. The static balance sheet approach produces results that show the interest risk currently inherent in our balance sheet at that point in time. The dynamic balance sheet includes our projected growth levels going forward and produces results that shows how net income, net interest income, and interest risk change based on our projected growth. These simulations test the impact on net interest income and fair value of equity from changes in market interest rates under various scenarios. Under the static and dynamic approaches, rates are shocked instantaneously and ramped over a 12-month horizon assuming parallel yield curve shifts. Parallel shock scenarios assume instantaneous parallel movements in the yield curve compared to a flat yield curve scenario. Non-parallel simulations are also conducted and involve analysis of interest income and expense under various changes in the shape of the yield curve including a forward curve, flat curve, steepening curve, and an inverted curve. Our internal policy regarding internal rate risk simulations currently specifies that for instantaneous parallel shifts of the yield curve, estimated net income at risk for the subsequent one- and two-year period should not decline by more than 10% for a 100 basis point shift, 15% for a 200 basis point shift, 20% for a 300 basis point shift, and 25% for a 400 basis point shift. 69 The following tables summarize the simulated change in net interest income over a 12-month horizon as of the dates indicated: Estimated Increase (Decrease) in Net Interest Income Change in Market Interest Rates Twelve Month Projection June 30, 2021 Twelve Month Projection December 31, 2020 Static Balance Sheet and Rate Shifts +400 basis points 27.6% 18.2% +300 basis points 20.6 13.7 +200 basis points 13.7 9.1 +100 basis points 6.7 4.5 -100 basis points (5.0) (3.7) -200 basis points (8.5) (6.8) -300 basis points (11.4) (9.8) Dynamic Balance Sheet and Rate Shifts +400 basis points 38.1 22.8 +300 basis points 28.5 17.1 +200 basis points 18.9 11.4 +100 basis points 9.3 5.6 -100 basis points (6.9) (4.3) -200 basis points (10.9) (7.4) -300 basis points (14.0) (10.5) The results illustrate that the Bank is asset sensitive and generally performs better in an increasing interest rate environment. The results are primarily due to behavior of demand, money market and savings deposits during such rate fluctuations. We have found that, historically, interest rates on these deposits change more slowly than changes in the discount and federal funds rates. This assumption is incorporated into the simulation model. The assumptions incorporated into the model are inherently uncertain and, as a result, the model cannot precisely measure future net interest income or precisely predict the impact of fluctuations in market interest rates on net interest income. Actual results will differ from the model’s simulated results due to timing, magnitude and frequency of interest rate changes as well as changes in market conditions, the shape of the interest yield curve, and the application and timing of various strategies. The -100, -200, and -300 basis point change in market interest rates no longer reflects viable interest rate changes as interest rates would have to go negative since the Fed Funds rate target range is set at 0.00% to 0.25%. Until rates increase, these rate shock scenarios may not reflect what may happen to net interest income if interest rates were to go negative. Impact of Inflation Our consolidated financial statements and related notes to those financial statements included elsewhere in this report have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. GAAP requires the measurement of financial position and operating results in terms of historical dollars, without considering changes in the relative value of money over time due to inflation or recession. Unlike many industrial companies, substantially all of our assets and liabilities are monetary in nature. As a result, interest rates have a more significant impact on our performance than the effects of general levels of inflation. Interest rates may not necessarily move in the same direction or in the same magnitude as the prices of goods and services. However, other operating expenses do reflect general levels of inflation.