Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.
In Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (“MD&A”), we provide a historical and prospective narrative of our general financial condition, results of operations, liquidity and certain other factors that may affect the future results of AutoZone, Inc. (“AutoZone” or the “Company”). The following MD&A discussion should be read in conjunction with our Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements, related notes to those statements and other financial information, including forward-looking statements and risk factors, that appear elsewhere in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended August 31, 2024, and our other filings with the SEC.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained herein constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements typically use words such as “believe,” “anticipate,” “should,” “intend,” “plan,” “will,” “expect,” “estimate,” “project,” “positioned,” “strategy,” “seek,” “may,” “could” and similar expressions. These are based on assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of experience, historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors that we believe appropriate. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including without limitation: product demand, due to changes in fuel prices, miles driven or otherwise; energy prices; weather, including extreme temperatures and natural disasters; competition; credit market conditions; cash flows; access to financing on favorable terms; future stock repurchases; the impact of recessionary conditions; consumer debt levels; changes in laws or regulations; risks associated with self-insurance; war and the prospect of war, including terrorist activity; public health issues; inflation, including wage inflation; exchange rates; the ability to hire, train and retain qualified employees including members of management; construction delays; failure or interruption of our information technology systems; issues relating to the confidentiality, integrity or availability of information, including due to cyber-attacks; historic growth rate sustainability; downgrade of our credit ratings; damage to our reputation; challenges associated with doing business in and expanding into international markets; origin and raw material costs of suppliers; inventory availability; disruption in our supply chain; tariffs and trade policies; new accounting standards; our ability to execute our growth initiatives; and other business interruptions. These and other risks and uncertainties are discussed in more detail in the “Risk Factors” section contained in Item 1A under Part 1 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended August 31, 2024 . Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by such forward-looking statements. Events described above and in the “Risk Factors” could materially and adversely affect our business. However, it is not possible to identify or predict all such risks and other factors that could affect these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date made. Except as required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise .
Overview
We are the leading retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the Americas. We began operations in 1979, and at November 23, 2024, operated 6,455 stores in the U.S., 800 stores in Mexico and 132 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. At November 23, 2024, in 5,935 of our domestic stores as well as the vast majority of our stores in Mexico and Brazil, we had a commercial sales program that provided prompt delivery of parts and other products and commercial credit to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations, fleet owners and other accounts. We also sell automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products through www.autozone.com, and our commercial customers can make purchases through www.autozonepro.com. Additionally, we sell the ALLDATA brand of automotive diagnostic, repair, collision and shop management software through www.alldata.com. We also provide product information on our Duralast branded products through www.duralastparts.com. We do not derive revenue from automotive repair or installation services. Our websites and the information contained therein or linked thereto are not intended to be incorporated into this report.
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Operating results for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, are not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected for the fiscal year ending August 30, 2025. Each of the first three quarters of our fiscal year consists of 12 weeks, and the fourth quarter consists of 16 or 17 weeks. The fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 has 16 weeks, and the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 had 17 weeks. Our business is somewhat seasonal in nature, with the highest sales generally occurring during the months of February through September, and the lowest sales generally occurring in the months of December and January.
Executive Summary
Net sales increased to $4.3 billion, a 2.1% increase over the prior year period. Our retail and commercial sales in our domestic and international markets grew as we continue to make progress on our growth initiatives. Operating profit decreased 0.9% to $841.1 million. Operating profit was negatively impacted $17.0 million due to unfavorable exchange rates. Net income decreased 4.8% to $564.9 million and diluted earnings per share decreased 0.1% to $32.52.
During the first quarter of fiscal 2025, failure and maintenance related categories represented the largest portion of our sales mix at approximately 86% of total sales, which is consistent with the comparable prior year period. Failure related categories continue to be the largest portion of our sales mix. We did not experience any fundamental shifts in our category sales mix as compared to the previous year. Our sales mix can be impacted by weather over a short-term period. Over the long-term, we believe the impact of weather on our sales mix is not significant.
Our business is impacted by various factors within the economy that affect both our consumers and our industry, including but not limited to inflation, interest rates, levels of consumer debt, fuel and energy costs, prevailing wage rates, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, supply chain disruptions, tariffs and trade policies, hiring and other economic conditions. Given the nature of these macroeconomic factors, we cannot predict whether or for how long certain trends will continue, nor can we predict to what degree these trends will impact us in the future.
The two statistics we believe have the closest correlation to our market growth over the long-term are miles driven and the number of seven year old or older vehicles on the road. For the 12-month period ended in September 2024, miles driven in the U.S. increased 1.1% compared to the same period in the prior year, based on the latest information available from the U.S. Department of Transportation. According to S&P Global Mobility, as of January 1, 2024, the average age of light vehicles on the road was 12.6 years.
Twelve Weeks Ended November 23, 2024
Compared with Twelve Weeks Ended November 18, 2023
Net sales for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, increased $89.4 million to $4.3 billion, or 2.1% over net sales for the comparable prior year period. This growth was driven primarily by an increase in total company same store sales of 1.8% on a constant currency basis and net sales of $71.9 million from new domestic and international stores. Domestic commercial sales increased $35.3 million to $1.1 billion, or 3.2% over the comparable prior year period.
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Same store sales, or sales for our domestic and international stores open at least one year, are as follows:
Twelve Weeks Ended
Constant Currency (1)
November 23, 2024
November 18, 2023
November 23, 2024
November 18, 2023
Domestic
0.3
%
1.2
%
0.3
%
1.2
%
International
1.0
%
25.1
%
13.7
%
10.9
%
Total Company
0.4
%
3.4
%
1.8
%
2.1
%
(1) Constant currency same store sales exclude impacts from fluctuations of foreign exchange rates by converting both the current year and prior year international results at the prior year foreign currency exchange rate.
Gross profit for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, was $2.3 billion, compared with $2.2 billion during the comparable prior year period. Gross profit, as a percentage of sales, was 53.0% compared to 52.8% during the comparable prior year period. The increase in gross margin was driven primarily by higher merchandise margins.
Operating, selling, general and administrative expenses for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, and the comparable prior year period were $1.4 billion. As a percentage of sales, these expenses were 33.3% compared with 32.6% during the comparable prior year period.
Net interest expense for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, was $107.6 million compared to $91.4 million during the comparable prior year period. Average borrowings were $8.9 billion and $8.1 billion, and weighted average borrowing rates were 4.43% and 4.23% for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023, respectively.
Our effective income tax rate for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, was 23.0% of pretax income compared to 21.6% for the comparable prior year period. The benefit from stock options exercised for the twelve week period ended November 23, 2024, was $5.3 million compared to $11.2 million in the comparable prior year period.
Net income for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, decreased by $28.5 million from the comparable prior year period to $564.9 million due to the factors set forth above, and diluted earnings per share decreased by 0.1% to $32.52 from $32.55. The impact on current quarter diluted earnings per share from stock repurchases since the end of the comparable prior year period was an increase of $0.22.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
The primary source of our liquidity is our cash flows realized through the sale of automotive parts, products and accessories. We believe that our cash generated from operating activities and available credit, supplemented with our long-term borrowings will provide ample liquidity to fund our operations while allowing us to make strategic investments to support growth initiatives and return excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. As of November 23, 2024, we held $304.0 million of cash and cash equivalents, as well as $2.2 billion in undrawn capacity on our Revolving Credit Agreement, before giving effect to commercial paper borrowings. We believe our sources of liquidity will continue to be adequate to fund our operations and investments to grow our business, repay our debt as it becomes due and fund our share repurchases over the short-term and long-term. In addition, we believe we have the ability to obtain alternative sources of financing, if necessary. However, decreased demand for our products or changes in customer buying patterns would negatively impact our ability to generate cash from operating activities. Decreased demand or changes in buying patterns could also impact our ability to meet the debt covenants of our credit agreements and, therefore, negatively impact the funds available under our Revolving Credit Agreement. In the event our liquidity is insufficient, we may be required to limit our spending. All of our material borrowing arrangements are described in greater detail in Note H – Financing in the Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements. There were no significant changes to our contractual obligations as described in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended August 31, 2024.
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For the twelve week periods ended November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023, our net cash flows from operating activities provided $811.8 million and $830.3 million, respectively.
Our net cash flows used in investing activities for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, were $265.7 million as compared with $270.5 million in the comparable prior year period. Capital expenditures for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, were $247.0 million compared to $235.4 million in the comparable prior year period. The increase in capital expenditures was primarily driven by our growth initiatives, including new stores, and hub and mega hub store expansion projects. During the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023, we opened 34 and 25 net new stores, respectively. Investing cash flows were impacted by our wholly owned captive, which purchased $12.3 million and $4.1 million, and sold $12.6 million and $1.9 million in marketable debt securities during the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024 and the comparable prior year period, respectively. Our investment in tax credit equity investments was $31.0 million during the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, compared to $41.2 million during the comparable prior year period.
Our net cash flows used in financing activities for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, were $538.1 million compared to $552.2 million in the comparable prior year period. During the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, we had no debt issuances compared to $1.0 billion in debt issuances received in the comparable prior year period . Stock repurchases were $540.1 million in the current twelve week period as compared with $1.5 billion in the comparable prior year period. The treasury stock repurchases were primarily funded by cash flows from operations. For the twelve week period ended November 23, 2024, and the comparable prior year period, we had $15.0 million and $76.9 million in net repayments of commercial paper, respectively. Proceeds from the sale of common stock and exercises of stock options for the twelve weeks ended November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023, provided $36.0 million and $41.4 million, respectively.
During fiscal 2025, we expect to increase the investment in our business as compared to fiscal 2024. Our investments are expected to be directed primarily to our growth initiatives, which include new stores, new distribution centers, and hub and mega hub store expansion projects. The amount of investments in our new stores is impacted by different factors, including whether the building and land are purchased (requiring higher investment) or leased (generally lower investment) and whether such buildings are located in the U.S., Mexico or Brazil, or located in urban or rural areas.
In addition to the building and land costs, our new stores require working capital, predominantly for inventories. Historically, we have negotiated extended payment terms from suppliers, reducing the working capital required and resulting in a high accounts payable to inventory ratio. We plan to continue leveraging our inventory purchases; however, our ability to do so may be limited by our suppliers’ ability to factor their receivables from us. The Company has arrangements with third-party financial institutions to confirm invoice balances owed by the Company to certain suppliers and pay the financial institutions the confirmed amounts on the invoice due dates. These arrangements allow the Company’s inventory suppliers, at their sole discretion, to enter into agreements with these financial institutions to finance the Company’s obligations to the suppliers at terms negotiated between the suppliers and the financial institutions. Supplier participation is optional and our obligations to our suppliers, including the amount and dates due, are not impacted by our suppliers’ decision to enter into an agreement with a third-party financial institution. A downgrade in our credit or changes in the financial markets could limit the financial institutions’ and our suppliers’ willingness to participate in these arrangements; however, we do not believe such risk would have a material impact on our working capital or cash flows. We plan to continue negotiating extended terms with our suppliers, benefitting our working capital and resulting in a high accounts payable to inventory ratio. We had an accounts payable to inventory ratio of 119.5% at November 23, 2024, and 124.4% at November 18, 2023.
Depending on the timing and magnitude of our future investments (either in the form of leased or purchased properties or acquisitions), we anticipate that we will rely primarily on internally generated funds and available borrowing capacity to support a majority of our capital expenditures, working capital requirements and stock repurchases. The balance may be funded through new borrowings. We anticipate that we will be able to obtain such financing based on our current credit ratings and favorable experiences in the debt markets in the past.
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For the trailing four quarters ended November 23, 2024, our adjusted after-tax return on invested capital (“ROIC”), which is a non-GAAP measure, was 47.7% as compared to 55.0% for the comparable prior year period. Adjusted ROIC is calculated as after-tax operating profit (excluding rent charges) divided by invested capital (which includes a factor to capitalize operating leases). We use adjusted ROIC to evaluate whether we are effectively using our capital resources and believe it is an important indicator of our overall operating performance. Refer to the “Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section for further details of our calculation.
Our adjusted debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, rent and share-based compensation expense (“EBITDAR”) ratio as of November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023, was 2.5:1. We calculate adjusted debt as the sum of total debt, financing lease liabilities and rent times six; and we calculate EBITDAR by adding interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, rent, and share-based compensation expense to net income. Adjusted debt to EBITDAR is calculated on a trailing four quarter basis. We target our debt levels to a ratio of adjusted debt to EBITDAR in order to maintain our investment grade credit ratings. We believe this is important information for the management of our debt levels. To the extent EBITDAR increases, we expect our debt levels to increase; conversely, if EBITDAR decreases, we would expect our debt levels to decrease. Refer to the “Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section for further details of our calculation.
Debt Facilities
On November 15, 2024, we amended the Revolving Credit Agreement, extending the termination date by one year. As amended, the Revolving credit agreement will terminate, and all amounts borrowed will be due and payable, on November 15, 2028.
The Senior Notes contain a provision that repayment may be accelerated if we experience both a change of control and a rating event (both as defined in the agreements). Our borrowings under our Senior Notes contain minimal covenants, primarily restrictions on liens. All of the repayment obligations under our borrowing arrangements may be accelerated and come due prior to the scheduled payment date if covenants are breached or an event of default occurs. As of November 23, 2024, we were in compliance with all covenants and expect to remain in compliance with all covenants under our borrowing arrangements.
See Note H – Financing in the Notes to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information concerning our revolving credit agreement, outstanding letters of credit, surety bonds commitment and Senior Notes.
Stock Repurchases
See Note I – Stock Repurchase Program in the Notes to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements for information on our share repurchases.
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations includes certain financial measures not derived in accordance with GAAP, including Adjusted After-Tax ROIC and Adjusted Debt to EBITDAR. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be used as a substitute for GAAP financial measures, or considered in isolation, for the purpose of analyzing our operating performance, financial position or cash flows. However, we have presented non-GAAP financial measures, as we believe they provide additional information that is useful to investors. Additionally, our management uses these non-GAAP financial measures to review and assess our underlying operating results and the Compensation Committee of the Board uses select measures to determine payments of performance-based compensation against pre-established targets.
Adjusted After-Tax ROIC and Adjusted Debt to EBITDAR provide additional information for determining our optimal capital structure and are used to assist management in evaluating performance and in making appropriate business decisions to maximize stockholders’ value.
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We have included reconciliations of this information to the most comparable GAAP measures in the following reconciliation tables.
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measure: Adjusted After-Tax ROIC
The following tables calculate the percentages of adjusted ROIC for the trailing four quarters ended November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023.
A
B
A-B=C
D
C+D
Fiscal Year
Twelve
Forty-One
Twelve
Trailing Four
Ended
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
Quarters Ended
August 31,
November 18,
August 31,
November 23,
November 23,
(in thousands, except percentage)
2024
2023
2024
2024
2024
Net income
$
2,662,427
$
593,463
$
2,068,964
$
564,933
$
2,633,897
Adjustments:
Interest expense
451,578
91,384
360,194
107,629
467,823
Rent expense (1)
447,693
98,693
349,000
105,189
454,189
Tax effect (2)
(184,351)
(38,966)
(145,385)
(43,628)
(189,013)
Adjusted after-tax return
$
3,377,347
$
744,574
$
2,632,773
$
734,123
$
3,366,896
Average debt (3)
$
8,849,457
Average stockholders’ deficit (3)
(4,862,353)
Add: Rent x 6 (1)
2,725,134
Average finance lease liabilities (3)
349,471
Invested capital
$
7,061,709
Adjusted after-tax ROIC
47.7%
A
B
A-B=C
D
C+D
Fiscal Year
Twelve
Forty
Twelve
Trailing Four
Ended
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
Quarters Ended
August 26,
November 19,
August 26,
November 18,
November 18,
(in thousands, except percentage)
2023
2022
2023
2023
2023
Net income
$
2,528,426
$
539,318
$
1,989,108
$
593,463
$
2,582,571
Adjustments:
Interest expense
306,372
57,723
248,649
91,384
340,033
Rent expense (1)
406,398
92,881
313,517
98,693
412,210
Tax effect (2)
(148,256)
(31,326)
(116,930)
(39,536)
(156,466)
Adjusted after-tax return
$
3,092,940
$
658,596
$
2,434,344
$
744,004
$
3,178,348
Average debt (3)
$
7,392,640
Average stockholders' deficit (3)
(4,377,447)
Add: Rent x 6 (1)
2,473,260
Average finance lease liabilities (3)
291,567
Invested capital
$
5,780,020
Adjusted after-tax ROIC
55.0%
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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measure: Adjusted Debt to EBITDAR
The following tables calculate the ratio of adjusted debt to EBITDAR for the trailing four quarters ended November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023.
A
B
A-B=C
D
C+D
Fiscal Year
Twelve
Forty-One
Twelve
Trailing Four
Ended
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
Quarters Ended
August 31,
November 18,
August 31,
November 23,
November 23,
(in thousands, except ratio)
2024
2023
2024
2024
2024
Net income
$
2,662,427
$
593,463
$
2,068,964
$
564,933
$
2,633,897
Add: Interest expense
451,578
91,384
360,194
107,629
467,823
Income tax expense
674,703
163,757
510,946
168,587
679,533
EBIT
3,788,708
848,604
2,940,104
841,149
3,781,253
Add: Depreciation and amortization expense
549,755
120,224
429,531
133,173
562,704
Rent expense (1)
447,693
98,693
349,000
105,189
454,189
Share-based expense
106,246
22,913
83,333
26,117
109,450
EBITDAR
$
4,892,402
$
1,090,434
$
3,801,968
$
1,105,628
$
4,907,596
Debt
$
9,012,539
Financing lease liabilities
388,847
Add: Rent x 6 (1)
2,725,134
Adjusted debt
$
12,126,520
Adjusted debt to EBITDAR
2.5
A
B
A-B=C
D
C+D
Fiscal Year
Twelve
Forty
Twelve
Trailing Four
Ended
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
Quarters Ended
August 26,
November 19,
August 26,
November 18,
November 18,
(in thousands, except ratio)
2023
2022
2023
2023
2023
Net income
$
2,528,426
$
539,318
$
1,989,108
$
593,463
$
2,582,571
Add: Interest expense
306,372
57,723
248,649
91,384
340,033
Income tax expense
639,188
125,992
513,196
163,757
676,953
EBIT
3,473,986
723,033
2,750,953
848,604
3,599,557
Add: Depreciation and amortization expense
497,577
109,253
388,324
120,224
508,548
Rent expense (1)
406,398
92,881
313,517
98,693
412,210
Share-based expense
93,087
19,005
74,082
22,913
96,995
EBITDAR
$
4,471,048
$
944,172
$
3,526,876
$
1,090,434
$
4,617,310
Debt
$
8,583,523
Financing lease liabilities
285,145
Add: Rent x 6 (1)
2,473,260
Adjusted debt
$
11,341,928
Adjusted debt to EBITDAR
2.5
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(1) The table below outlines the calculation of rent expense and reconciles rent expense to total lease cost, per ASC 842, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, for the trailing four quarters ended November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023 .
Trailing Four Quarters Ended
(in thousands)
November 23, 2024
November 18, 2023
Total lease cost, per ASC 842
$
602,034
$
536,217
Less: Finance lease interest and amortization
(108,665)
(90,864)
Less: Variable operating lease components, related to insurance and common area maintenance
(39,180)
(33,143)
Rent expense
$
454,189
$
412,210
(2) Effective tax rate over trailing four quarters ended November 23, 2024, and November 18, 2023, was 20.5% and 20.8%, respectively.
(3) All averages are computed based on trailing five quarter balances.
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Recent Accounting Pronouncements
Refer to Note A in the Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements for the discussion of recent accounting pronouncements.
Critical Accounting Estimates
Our critical accounting estimates are described in Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended August 31, 2024. There have been no significant changes to our critical accounting estimates since the filing of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended August 31, 2024.
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