ANTERO RESOURCES Corp 10-Q

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk The primary objective of the following information is to provide forward-looking quantitative and qualitative information about our potential exposure to market risk. The term “market risk” refers to the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in natural gas, NGLs and oil prices, as well as interest rates. These disclosures are not meant to be precise indicators of expected future losses, but rather indicators of reasonably possible losses. This forward-looking information provides indicators of how we view and manage our ongoing market risk exposures. Commodity Hedging Activities Our primary market risk exposure is in the price we receive for our natural gas, NGLs and oil production. Pricing is primarily driven by spot regional market prices applicable to our U.S. natural gas production and the prevailing worldwide price for oil. Pricing for natural gas, NGLs and oil has, historically, been volatile and unpredictable, and we expect this volatility to continue in the future. The prices we receive for our production depend on many factors outside of our control, including volatility in the differences between commodity prices at sales points and the applicable index price. We may enter into financial derivative instruments for a portion of our natural gas, NGLs and oil production when circumstances warrant and management believes that favorable future prices can be secured in order to mitigate some of the potential negative impact on our cash flows caused by changes in commodity prices. Due to our improved liquidity and leverage position as compared to historical levels, the percentage of our expected production that we hedge has decreased. For the three and six months ended June 30, 2023 and 2024, substantially all of our production was unhedged. Our financial hedging activities may include commodity fixed price swaps, basis swaps, collars or other similar instruments related to the price risk associated with our production. These contracts are financial instruments and do not require or allow for physical delivery of the hedged commodity. As of June 30, 2024, our commodity derivatives included fixed swaps, basis differential 48 Table of Contents swaps, call options and embedded put options at index-based pricing for a portion of our production. See Note 11—Derivative Instruments to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for more information. Our financial hedging activities are intended to support natural gas, NGLs and oil prices at targeted levels and to manage our exposure to natural gas, NGLs and oil price fluctuations. These contracts may include commodity price swaps whereby we will receive a fixed price and pay a variable market price to the contract counterparty, collars that set a floor and ceiling price for the hedged production, basis differential swaps or embedded options. These contracts are financial instruments and do not require or allow for physical delivery of the hedged commodity. Under the Prior Credit Facility, we are permitted to hedge up to 75% of our projected production for the next 60 months. We may enter into hedge contracts with a term greater than 60 months, and for no longer than 72 months, for up to 65% of our estimated production. Based on our production and our derivative instruments that settled during the six months ended June 30, 2024, our revenues would have decreased by $75 million for each $0.10 decrease per MMBtu in natural gas prices and $1.00 decrease per Bbl in oil and NGLs prices, excluding the effects of changes in the fair value of our derivative positions which remain open as of June 30, 2024. All derivative instruments, other than those that meet the normal purchase and normal sale scope exception or other derivative scope exceptions, are recorded at fair market value in accordance with GAAP and are included in our consolidated balance sheets as assets or liabilities. The fair values of our derivative instruments are adjusted for non-performance risk. Because we do not designate these derivatives as accounting hedges, they do not receive hedge accounting treatment; therefore, all mark to market gains or losses, as well as cash receipts or payments on settled derivative instruments, are recognized in our statements of operations and comprehensive income. We present total gains or losses on commodity derivatives (for both settled derivatives and derivative positions which remain open) within operating revenues as “Commodity derivative fair value gains.” Mark-to-market adjustments of derivative instruments cause earnings volatility but have no cash flow impact relative to changes in market prices until the derivative contracts are settled or monetized prior to settlement. We expect continued volatility in the fair value of our derivative instruments. Our cash flows are impacted when the associated derivative contracts are settled or monetized by making or receiving payments to or from the counterparty. As of December 31, 2023 and June 30, 2024, the estimated fair value of our commodity derivative instruments was a net liability $37 million and $41 million, respectively, comprised of current and noncurrent assets and liabilities. Counterparty and Customer Credit Risk Our principal exposures to credit risk are through receivables resulting from the following: the sale of our natural gas, NGLs and oil production ($363 million as of June 30, 2024), which we market to energy companies, end users and refineries, and commodity derivative contracts ($6 million as of June 30, 2024). We are subject to credit risk due to the concentration of our receivables from several significant customers for sales of natural gas, NGLs and oil. While we do at times require customers to post letters of credit or other credit support in connection with their obligations, we generally do not require our customers to post collateral. The inability or failure of our significant customers to meet their obligations to us, or their insolvency or liquidation, may adversely affect our financial results. In addition, we are exposed to the credit risk of our counterparties for our derivative instruments. Credit risk is the potential failure of a counterparty to perform under the terms of a derivative contract. When the fair value of a derivative contract is positive, the counterparty is expected to owe us, which creates credit risk. To minimize the credit risk in derivative instruments, it is our policy to enter into derivative contracts only with counterparties that are creditworthy financial institutions that management deems to be competent and competitive market makers. The creditworthiness of our counterparties is subject to periodic review. As of June 30, 2024, we have commodity hedges in place with four different counterparties, three of which are lenders under the Prior Credit Facility. We did not have any derivative assets with bank counterparties under our Prior Credit Facility as of June 30, 2024. The estimated fair value of our commodity derivative assets has been risk-adjusted using a discount rate based upon the counterparties’ respective published credit default swap rates (if available, or if not available, a discount rate based on the applicable Reuters bond rating) as of June 30, 2024. We believe that all of the counterparties to our derivative instruments are acceptable credit risks as of June 30, 2024. Other than as provided by the Prior Credit Facility, we are not required to provide credit support or collateral to any of our counterparties under our 49 Table of Contents derivative contracts, nor are they required to provide credit support to us. As of June 30, 2024, we did not have any past-due receivables from, or payables to, any of the counterparties to our derivative contracts. Interest Rate Risks Our primary exposure to interest rate risk results from outstanding borrowings under the Credit Facility, which has a floating interest rate. The average annualized interest rate incurred on the Prior Credit Facility for borrowings during the six months ended June 30, 2024 was 7.71%. We estimate that a 1.0% increase in the applicable average interest rates for the six months ended June 30, 2024 would have resulted in an estimated $2 million increase in interest expense. ​