Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis
ITEM 7 – MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
OVERVIEW
Our company is comprised of two reporting segments: North America and Rest of World. Our Rest of World segment is primarily comprised of China, Europe and India. Both segments manufacture and market comprehensive lines of residential and commercial gas, heat pump and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks, and water treatment products. Both segments primarily manufacture and market in their respective region of the world.
Our sales in China in 2022 were impacted by lower consumer demand driven by COVID-19-related lockdowns. Certain COVID-19 restrictions were lifted in China at the end of 2022 and we believe that economic activity there will improve in 2023 as a result.
While supply chain and logistics challenges lingered in 2022, we saw improvement, particularly in the second half of the year. We remain in close contact with our suppliers and logistics providers to resolve supply chain constraints as they arise.
We continue to seek acquisitions that enable geographic growth, expand our core business, and establish adjacencies. Consistent with this strategy, we acquired Giant Factories, Inc. (Giant), a Canada-based manufacturer of residential and commercial water heaters, on October 19, 2021, for $199 million, subject to customary adjustments, using a combination of debt and cash. The acquisition fits squarely in our core capabilities, supplements our presence in Canada and enhances our capacity and distribution in the region. Giant contributed incremental sales of $94.3 million and $22.9 million in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Refer to Note 3, “Acquisitions” for additional information. We will also continue to look for opportunities to add to our existing operations in high growth regions demonstrated by our previous introductions of water treatment products in India and range hoods and cooktops in China.
In our North America segment, after approximately eight percent growth each year in 2021 and 2020, we believe that the wholesale residential water heater industry is returning to a more historical growth rate following a channel inventory destocking that occurred primarily in the third quarter of 2022, which resulted in a decrease in industry demand of 12 percent compared to 2021. We believe the majority of our customers exited 2022 with near normal inventory levels. While we believe that new home construction is in a deficit, we project it will be a headwind in 2023 and therefore, we project 2023 industry residential unit volumes will decrease approximately two to five percent from 2022. We believe that commercial water heater industry volumes will be flat to slightly up in 2023 compared to 2022 as supply chain constraints continue to ease. We expect to see a 10 to 12 percent increase in our sales of boilers in 2023 compared to 2022 due to industry growth of approximately three to four percent and our expectation that the transition to higher-efficiency boilers will continue. We anticipate sales of our North America water treatment products will increase approximately five to seven percent in 2023, compared to 2022, primarily driven by pricing and consumer demand.
In our Rest of World segment, we see the recent change to certain COVID-19 restrictions in China as a positive step to an improved economic environment. We project our sales in China will grow three to five percent in 2023 in local currency compared to 2022. Our guidance assumes volume will improve sequentially through out the year. We assume that the currency translation impact on sales will be similar to the 2022 and negatively impact sales by approximately four percent.
Combining all of these factors, we expect our 2023 consolidated sales to be flat to 2022, with a range of plus or minus three percent. Our guidance excludes the impacts from potential future acquisitions and assumes the COVID-19-related impacts in China improve in the second half of the year and do not have a significant impact on our productivity or significantly impact the end markets that we serve.
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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
In this section, we discuss the results of our operations for 2022 compared with 2021. We discuss our cash flows and current financial condition under “Liquidity and Capital Resources.” For a discussion related to 2021 compared with 2020, please refer to Item 7 of Part II, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the Year Ended December 31, 2021, which was filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on February 11, 2022, and is available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.
Years Ended December 31,
(dollars in millions) 2022 2021 2020
Net sales $ 3,753.9 $ 3,538.9 $ 2,895.3
Cost of products sold 2,424.3 2,228.0 1,787.1
Gross profit 1,329.6 1,310.9 1,108.2
Gross profit margin % 35.4 % 37.0 % 38.3 %
Selling, general and administrative expenses 670.9 701.4 660.3
Severance and restructuring expenses — — 7.7
Interest expense 9.4 4.3 7.3
Other expense (income)-net 425.6 (20.4) (11.0)
Earnings before provision for income taxes 223.7 625.6 443.9
(Benefit from) provision for income taxes (12.0) 138.5 99.0
Net Earnings $ 235.7 $ 487.1 $ 344.9
Our sales in 2022 were $3,753.9 million, or 6.1 percent higher than 2021 sales of $3,538.9 million. Higher sales in 2022 were primarily driven by the impacts of inflation-related pricing actions partially offset by lower residential water heater volumes in North America and lower sales in China. In addition, our sales were negatively impacted by approximately $61 million compared to last year due to the depreciation of foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar. Our acquisition of Giant added $94.3 million of incremental sales in 2022.
Our gross profit margin in 2022 of 35.4 percent declined compared to 37.0 percent in 2021. The lower gross margin in 2022 was primarily due to higher steel and other material costs and production inefficiencies, which outpaced the impact of our pricing actions.
Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $670.9 million in 2022, or $30.5 million lower than in 2021. The decrease in SG&A expenses was primarily due to the recognition of a gain from an $11.5 million judgment against a competitor related to its infringement of one of our patents, lower management incentive expenses, and lower engineering costs in China.
Interest expense was $9.4 million in 2022, compared to $4.3 million in 2021. The increase in interest expense in 2022 was primarily due to higher debt levels and interest rates.
In 2021, our Board of Directors approved the termination of our defined benefit pension plan (the Plan) with a termination date of December 31, 2021. The Plan represented over 95 percent of our pension plan liability. In the second quarter of 2022, we received a determination letter from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that allowed us to proceed with the termination process. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the settled Plan liabilities resulted in $417.3 million of pretax pension settlement expense, of which, $346.8 million was recorded in the North America segment and $70.5 million in Corporate Expense, and included $167.7 million in related tax benefits. For additional information, refer to the Critical Accounting Policies section under “Pensions” below.
Other expense (income)-net in 2022 was $425.6 million in expense compared to income of $20.4 million in 2021. In 2022, Other expense (income)-net reflected the $417.3 million pension settlement expense related to the termination of the Plan and $13.9 million in pension expenses compared to $12.0 million of pension income in 2021. To protect the Plan's funded status, the Plan transferred a significant portion of its assets to lower-risk investments in 2021. The impact of this transition resulted in a lower expected rate of return on pension investments and, accordingly, higher pension expenses in 2022 compared to the previous year. The service cost component of our pension income is reflected in cost of products sold and SG&A expenses. All other components of our pension expense (income) are reflected in other expense (income)-net.
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Our effective income tax rate in 2022 was lower than our effective income tax rate in 2021 primarily due to the tax effects of the pension settlement expense associated with the termination of the Plan, a non-recurring $4.2 million favorable tax impact recorded in the prior year periods related to amending a previously filed tax return and a change in geographic earnings mix. We estimate that our annual effective income tax rate for the full year of 2023 will be approximately 24 percent.
We are providing non-U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) measures (adjusted earnings, adjusted EPS, adjusted segment earnings and adjusted corporate expense) that exclude the impact of the pension settlement expense as well as the income from the legal judgment, the expenses associated with a terminated acquisition and non-operating pension income and expenses. Reconciliations from GAAP measures to non-GAAP measures are provided in the Non-GAAP Measures section below. We believe that the measures of adjusted earnings, adjusted EPS, adjusted segment earnings and adjusted corporate expense provide useful information to investors about our performance and allow management and our investors to better understand our performance between periods without regard to items that we do not consider to be a component of our core operating performance or recurring in nature.
North America Segment
Years ended December 31 (dollars in millions) 2022 2021
Net Sales $ 2,819.1 $ 2,529.5
Segment Earnings 266.0 590.8
Segment Margin 9.4 % 23.4 %
Sales in our North America segment were $2,819.1 million in 2022, or $289.6 million higher than sales of $2,529.5 million in 2021. The increased sales in 2022 compared to the prior year were primarily driven by the price increases implemented in 2021, largely on water heaters, in response to rising material and other input costs and more than offset lower residential water heater volumes and unfavorable currency translation impact of approximately $12 million. In addition, our acquisition of Giant added $94.3 million of incremental sales in 2022.
North America segment earnings were $266.0 million in 2022, a decrease of 55 percent compared to segment earnings of $590.8 million in 2021. Segment margins were 9.4 percent and 23.4 percent in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Lower segment earnings and margin in 2022 were primarily due to the Plan settlement expense of $346.8 million, lower residential water heater volumes, higher material costs, and production inefficiencies, partially offset by price increases and the $11.5 million patent infringement judgment referenced above. Adjusted segment earnings and adjusted segment margin in 2022 were $611.0 million and 21.7 percent, respectively. Adjusted segment earnings and adjusted segment margin in 2021 were $580.3 million and 22.9 percent, respectively. We estimate our 2023 North America segment margin will be approximately 23 percent.
Adjusted segment earnings and adjusted segment margin in 2022 exclude the pension settlement expense of $346.8 million, pension expense of $9.7 million and the recognition of the $11.5 million patent infringement judgment. Adjusted segment earnings and adjusted segment margin in 2021 exclude pension income of $10.5 million.
Rest of World Segment
Years ended December 31 (dollars in millions) 2022 2021
Net Sales $ 965.8 $ 1,036.5
Segment Earnings 96.3 91.4
Segment Margin 10.0 % 8.8 %
Rest of World sales of $965.8 million decreased seven percent year-over-year, including an unfavorable currency translation impact of approximately $49 million, of which $36 million related to sales in China. In local currency, segment sales decreased by approximately two percent year-over-year. The decrease in sales in 2022 was primarily driven by lower consumer demand in China due to COVID-19-related disruptions and lockdowns. Sales in India increased 28 percent in local currency in 2022 due to strong demand for our water heater and water treatment products.
Rest of World segment earnings were $96.3 million in 2022 compared to $91.4 million in 2021. Segment margins were 10.0 percent and 8.8 percent in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Compared to 2021, higher segment earnings and margin were primarily driven by lower engineering, advertising, and selling expenses in China. We expect the full-year segment margin to be approximately 10 percent in 2023.
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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our working capital was $699.5 million at December 31, 2022 compared with $633.8 million at December 31, 2021. A majority of the increase in working capital was driven by lower accounts payable and payroll-related accruals and higher inventory balances than at December 31, 2021, due to higher levels of safety stock which were partially offset by lower accounts receivable, and cash balances. In addition, cash balances as of December 31, 2022 were negatively impacted by $20.8 million due to the effects of changes in foreign currency during the year. In 2022, we repatriated approximately $120 million of cash from our foreign subsidiaries to the U.S. We used the proceeds to pay down outstanding debt balances.
Years ended December 31 (dollars in millions) 2022 2021
Cash provided by operating activities $ 391.4 $ 641.1
Cash provided by (used in) investing activities 8.1 (349.9)
Cash used in financing activities (430.8) (421.0)
Cash provided by operating activities in 2022 was $391.4 million compared with $641.1 million during 2021. The decrease in operating cash flows in 2022 was primarily due to lower customer deposits in China, higher 2021-related incentive payments made in 2022 and additional working capital cash outlays primarily related to higher cost inventories that more than offset lower accounts receivable balances. Our free cash flow in 2022 and 2021 was $321.1 million and $566.0 million, respectively. We expect free cash flow to be between $550 million to $600 million in 2023. Free cash flow is a non-GAAP measure and is described in more detail in the Non-GAAP Measures section below.
Our capital expenditures were $70.3 million in 2022 and $75.1 million in 2021. We project our 2023 capital expenditures will be between $70 and $75 million and expect depreciation and amortization will be approximately $70 million.
In 2021, we renewed and amended our $500 million revolving credit facility, which now expires on April 1, 2026. The renewed and amended facility, with a group of nine banks, has an accordion provision that allows it to be increased up to $850 million if certain conditions (including lender approval) are satisfied. Borrowing rates under the facility are determined by our leverage ratio. The facility requires us to maintain two financial covenants, a leverage ratio test and an interest coverage test, and we were in compliance with the covenants as of December 31, 2022, and expect to be in compliance for the foreseeable future.
The facility backs up commercial paper and credit line borrowings. At December 31, 2022, we had $208 million outstanding under the facility and an available borrowing capacity of $292 million. We believe the combination of available borrowing capacity and operating cash flows will provide sufficient funds to finance our existing operations for the foreseeable future.
Our total debt increased by $150.6 million in 2022 and was primarily due to repurchases of our common stock. Our leverage, as measured by the ratio of total debt to total capitalization, was 16.5 percent at December 31, 2022, compared with 9.7 percent at December 31, 2021.
Our remaining U.S. pension plan continues to meet all funding requirements under ERISA regulations. We were not required to make a contribution to our pension plan in 2022. We forecast that we will not be required to make a contribution to the plan in 2023, and we do not plan to make any voluntary contributions in 2023. For further information on our pension plans, see the Critical Accounting Policies below and Note 13, “Pension and Other Post-retirement Benefits” of Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
In 2022, our Board of Directors approved adding 3,500,000 shares of common stock to our existing discretionary share repurchase authority. Under our share repurchase program, we may purchase our common stock through a combination of a Rule 10b5-1 automatic trading plan and discretionary purchases in accordance with applicable securities laws. The stock repurchase authorization remains effective until terminated by our Board of Directors, which may occur at any time, subject to the parameters of any Rule 10b5-1 automatic trading plan that we may then have in effect. During 2022, we repurchased 6,647,895 shares of our stock at a total cost of $403.5 million. As of December 31, 2022, we had 378,462 shares remaining on the share repurchase authority. On January 27, 2023, the Board of Directors approved adding 7,500,000 shares of common stock to the existing discretionary share repurchase authority. Including the additional shares, we have approximately 7.6 million shares available for repurchase as of the date of the Board of Directors' approval. We intend to repurchase approximately $200 million of our common stock in 2023 through a combination of 10b5-1 plans and open-market purchases.
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We paid dividends of $1.14 per share in 2022 compared with $1.06 per share in 2021. We increased our dividend by seven percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the five-year compound annual growth rate of our dividend payment is approximately 15 percent. We have paid dividends for 83 consecutive years with annual amounts increasing each of the last 31 years.
Recent Accounting Pronouncements
Refer to Recent Accounting Pronouncements in Note 1, “Organization and Significant Accounting Policies” of Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Critical Accounting Policies
Our accounting policies are described in Note 1, “Organization and Significant Accounting Policies” of Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements. Also as disclosed in Note 1, the preparation of financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. requires the use of estimates and assumptions about future events that affect the amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Future events and their effects cannot be determined with absolute certainty. Therefore, the determination of estimates requires the exercise of judgment. Actual results inevitably will differ from those estimates, and such differences may be material to the financial statements.
The most significant accounting estimates inherent in the preparation of our financial statements include estimates associated with the evaluation of the impairment of goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets, as well as significant estimates used in the determination of liabilities related to warranty, product liability and pensions. Various assumptions and other factors underlie the determination of these significant estimates. The process of determining significant estimates is fact-specific and takes into account factors such as historical experience and trends, and in some cases, actuarial techniques. We monitor these significant factors and adjustments are made as facts and circumstances dictate. Historically, actual results have not significantly deviated from those determined using the estimates described above.
Goodwill and Indefinite-lived Intangible Assets
In conformity with GAAP, goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets are tested for impairment annually or more frequently if events or changes in circumstances indicate that the assets might be impaired. We perform impairment reviews for our reporting units using a fair-value method based on management’s judgments and assumptions. The fair value represents the estimated amount at which a reporting unit could be bought or sold in a current transaction between willing parties on an arms-length basis. The estimated fair value is then compared with the carrying amount of the reporting unit, including recorded goodwill. We are subject to financial statement risk to the extent that goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets become impaired. Any impairment review is, by its nature, highly judgmental as estimates of future sales, earnings and cash flows are utilized to determine fair values. However, we believe that we conduct a thorough and competent annual quantitative analysis of goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets. Based on the annual goodwill impairment test, we determined there was no impairment of our goodwill as of December 31, 2022. The fair value of each of our reporting units significantly exceeded its carrying value and a 20% decrease in the estimated fair value of our reporting units would not have resulted in a different conclusion. Based on the annual indefinite-lived assets impairment test, we determined there was no impairment of our indefinite-lived assets as of December 31, 2022.
Product Warranty
Our products carry warranties that generally range from one to 12 years and are based on terms that are generally accepted in the market. We provide for the estimated cost of product warranty at the time of sale. The product warranty provision is estimated based upon warranty loss experience using actual historical failure rates and estimated costs of product replacement. The variables used in the calculation of the provision are reviewed at least annually. At times, warranty issues may arise which are beyond the scope of our historical experience. We provide for any such warranty issues as they become known and estimable. While our warranty costs have historically been within calculated estimates, it is possible that future warranty costs could differ significantly from those estimates. The allocation of the warranty liability between current and long-term is based on the expected warranty liability to be paid in the next year as determined by historical product failure rates. At December 31, 2022 and 2021, our reserve for product warranties was $182.5 million and $184.4 million, respectively.
Pensions
We have significant pension benefit costs that are developed from actuarial valuations. The valuations reflect key assumptions regarding, among other things, discount rates, expected return on plan assets, retirement ages, and years of service. Consideration is given to current market conditions, including changes in interest rates in making these assumptions.
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Our assumption for the expected return on plan assets was 3.12 and 6.25 percent in 2022 and 2021, respectively. The discount rate used to determine net periodic pension costs increased to 2.80 percent in 2022 from 2.47 percent in 2021. For 2023, our expected return on plan assets is 5.25 percent and our discount rate is 5.13 percent.
In developing our expected return on plan assets, we evaluate our pension plan’s current and target asset allocation, the expected long-term rates of return of equity and bond indices and the actual historical returns of our pension plan. Our plan’s target allocation to bonds managers is between 60 to 95 percent with the remainder allocated primarily to equities, private equity managers and cash. Our actual asset allocation as of December 31, 2022, was eight percent to equity managers, 27 percent to bond managers, five percent to private equity managers, and the remainder allocated to cash. We regularly review our actual asset allocation and periodically rebalance our investments to our targeted allocation when considered appropriate. Our pension plan’s historical ten-year and 25-year compounded annualized returns are 7.1 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively. We believe that with our target allocation and the expected long-term returns of equity and bond indices as well as our actual historical returns, our 5.25 percent expected return on plan assets for 2023 is reasonable.
The discount rate assumptions used to determine future pension obligations at December 31, 2022 and 2021 were based on the Aon AA Only Above Median yield curve, which was designed by Aon to provide a means for plan sponsors to value the liabilities of their postretirement benefit plans. The AA Only Above Median yield curve represents a series of annual discount rates from bonds with AA minimum average rating as rated by Moody’s Investor Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. We will continue to evaluate our actuarial assumptions at least annually, and we will adjust the assumptions as necessary.
Lowering the expected return on plan assets by 25 basis points would increase our net pension expense for 2022 by approximately $1.8 million. Lowering the discount rate by 25 basis points would decrease our 2022 net pension expense by approximately $0.8 million.
In 2021, our Board of Directors approved the termination of our defined benefit pension plan (the Plan) with a termination date of December 31, 2021. The Plan represented over 95 percent of our pension plan liability. In the second quarter of 2022, we received a determination letter from the IRS that allowed us to proceed with the termination process. In the fourth quarter of 2022, we settled approximately $169 million of Plan liabilities through lump-sum payments from existing plan assets to eligible participants who elected to receive them and settled approximately $463 million of Plan liabilities by entering into an agreement to purchase annuities from Mass Mutual Life Insurance Company (MML). The irrevocable agreement with MML covers approximately 7,000 active and former employees and their beneficiaries, with MML assuming the future annuity payments for these individuals commencing March 1, 2023. These settlements resulted in approximately $417.3 million of pretax expense in 2022, partially offset by approximately $167.7 million in related tax benefits.
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Non-GAAP Measures
We are providing non-U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) measures (adjusted earnings, adjusted EPS, adjusted segment earnings and adjusted corporate expense) that exclude the impact of pension settlement expense as well as legal judgment income, expenses associated with a terminated acquisition and non-operating pension income and expenses. Reconciliations from GAAP measures to non-GAAP measures are provided below.
We believe that the measures of adjusted earnings, adjusted EPS, adjusted segment earnings and adjusted corporate expense provide useful information to investors about our performance and allow management and our investors to better understand our performance between periods without regard to items that we do not consider to be a component of our core operating performance or recurring in nature.
A. O. SMITH CORPORATION
Adjusted Earnings and Adjusted Earnings Per Share
(dollars in millions, except per share data)
(unaudited)
The following is a reconciliation of net earnings and diluted EPS to adjusted earnings (non-GAAP) and adjusted EPS (non-GAAP):
Twelve Months Ended
December 31,
2022 2021
Net Earnings (GAAP) $ 235.7 $ 487.1
Pension settlement expense, before tax 417.3 —
Pension expense (income), before tax 11.7 (13.1)
Legal judgment income, before tax (11.5) —
Terminated acquisition-related expenses, before tax 4.3 —
Tax effect on above items (168.8) 3.3
Adjusted Earnings (non-GAAP) $ 488.7 $ 477.3
Diluted Earnings Per Share (GAAP) (1)
$ 1.51 $ 3.02
Pension settlement expense per diluted share, before tax 2.68 —
Pension expense (income) per diluted share, before tax 0.08 (0.08)
Legal judgment income per diluted share, before tax (0.07) —
Terminated acquisition-related expenses per diluted share, before tax 0.03 —
Tax effect on above items per diluted share (1.09) 0.02
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (non-GAAP) (1)
$ 3.14 $ 2.96
(1) Earnings per share amounts are calculated discretely and, therefore, may not add up to the total due to rounding.
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A. O. SMITH CORPORATION
Adjusted Segment Earnings
(dollars in millions)
(unaudited)
The following is a reconciliation of reported segment earnings to adjusted segment earnings (non-GAAP):
Twelve Months Ended
December 31,
2022 2021
Segment Earnings (GAAP)
North America $ 266.0 $ 590.8
Rest of World 96.3 91.4
Inter-segment earnings elimination (0.3) (0.2)
Total Segment Earnings (GAAP) $ 362.0 $ 682.0
Adjustments:
North America $ 345.0 $ (10.5)
Rest of World — —
Inter-segment earnings elimination — —
Total Adjustments $ 345.0 $ (10.5)
Adjusted Segment Earnings (non-GAAP)
North America $ 611.0 $ 580.3
Rest of World 96.3 91.4
Inter-segment earnings elimination (0.3) (0.2)
Total Adjusted Segment Earnings (non-GAAP) $ 707.0 $ 671.5
Additional Information
Adjustments: North America Segment
Pension settlement expense, before tax $ 346.8 $ —
Pension expense (income), before tax 9.7 (10.5)
Legal judgment income, before tax (11.5) —
Total Adjustments $ 345.0 $ (10.5)
A. O. SMITH CORPORATION
Adjusted Corporate Expense
(dollars in millions)
(unaudited)
The following is a reconciliation of reported Corporate Expense to adjusted Corporate Expense (non-GAAP):
Twelve Months Ended
December 31,
2022 2021
Corporate Expense (GAAP) $ (128.9) $ (52.1)
Adjustments:
Pension settlement expense, before tax 70.5 —
Corporate pension expense (income) 2.0 (2.6)
Terminated acquisition-related expenses 4.3 —
Corporate Expense (non-GAAP) $ (52.1) $ (54.7)
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A. O. SMITH CORPORATION
Free Cash Flow
(dollars in millions)
(unaudited)
The following is a reconciliation of reported cash flow from operating activities to free cash flow (non-GAAP):
Twelve Months Ended,
December 31,
2022 2021
Cash provided by operating activities (GAAP) $ 391.4 $ 641.1
Less: Capital expenditures (70.3) (75.1)
Free cash flow (non-GAAP) $ 321.1 $ 566.0
A. O. SMITH CORPORATION
2023 EPS Guidance and 2022 Adjusted EPS
(unaudited)
The following is a reconciliation of diluted EPS to adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) (all items are net of tax):
2023 Guidance 2022
Diluted EPS (GAAP) $ 3.15-3.45 $ 1.51
Pension settlement expense — 1.60 (1)
Pension expense — 0.06 (2)
Legal judgment income — (0.05)
Terminated acquisition-related expenses — 0.02
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) $ 3.15-3.45 $ 3.14
(1) Includes pre-tax pension settlement expense of $346.8 million and $70.5 million, within the North America segment and Corporate expenses, respectively.
(2) Includes pre-tax pension expense of $9.7 million and $2.0 million, within the North America segment and Corporate expenses, respectively.
Outlook
As we begin 2023, we expect our consolidated sales to be flat to 2022 with a range of plus or minus three percent. Our sales projection is driven by expected lower industry residential unit volumes in North America and offset by anticipated increased boiler and water treatment sales in North America and higher sales in China. We expect to achieve full-year earnings of between $3.15 and $3.45 per share. Our guidance excludes the impacts from potential future acquisitions and assumes the COVID-19-related impacts in China improve in the second half of the year and do not have a significant impact on our productivity or significantly impact the end markets that we serve.
OTHER MATTERS
Environmental
Our operations are governed by a number of federal, foreign, state, local and environmental laws concerning the generation and management of hazardous materials, the discharge of pollutants into the environment and remediation of sites owned by the Company or third parties. We have expended financial and managerial resources complying with such laws. Expenditures related to environmental matters were not material in 2022 and we do not expect them to be material in any single year. We have reserves associated with environmental obligations at various facilities and we believe these reserves together with available insurance coverage are sufficient to cover reasonably anticipated remediation costs. Although we believe that our operations are substantially in compliance with such laws and maintain procedures designed to maintain compliance, there are no assurances that substantial additional costs for compliance will not be incurred in the future. However, since the same laws govern our competitors, we should not be placed at a competitive disadvantage.
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Risk Management
We evaluate risk to our business in a number of ways, primarily through our Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) process, which we conduct enterprise-wise on a periodic basis, and seeks to identify and address significant and material risks. Our ERM process assesses, manages, and monitors risks consistent with the integrated risk framework in the Enterprise Risk Management-Integrated Framework (2017) issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO). We believe that risk-taking is an inherent aspect of the pursuit of our strategy. Our goal is to manage risks prudently rather than avoid risks. We can mitigate risks and their impact on our company only to a limited extent.
A team of senior executives prioritizes identified risks, including decarbonization, new technologies and cyber threats among others, and assigns an executive to address each major identified risk area and lead action plans to manage risks. Our Board of Directors provides oversight of the ERM process and reviews significant identified risks. The Audit Committee of the Board of Directors also reviews significant financial risk exposures and the steps management has taken to monitor and manage them. Our other Board committees also play a role in risk management, as set forth in their respective charters.
Our goal is to proactively manage risks using a structured approach in conjunction with strategic planning, with the intent to preserve and enhance shareholder value. However, the risks set forth in Item 1A - Risk Factors and elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and other risks and uncertainties could adversely affect us and cause our results to vary materially from recent results or from our anticipated future results.
Market Risk
We are exposed to various types of market risks, primarily currency. We monitor our risks in such areas on a continuous basis and generally enter into forward contracts to minimize such exposures. We do not engage in speculation in our derivatives strategies. Further discussion regarding derivative instruments is contained in Note 1, “Organization and Significant Accounting Policies” of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
We enter into foreign currency forward contracts to minimize the effect of fluctuating foreign currencies. At December 31, 2022, we had net foreign currency contracts outstanding with notional values of $122.7 million. Assuming a hypothetical ten percent movement in the respective currencies, the potential foreign exchange gain or loss associated with the change in exchange rates would amount to $12.3 million. However, gains and losses from our forward contracts will be offset by gains and losses in the underlying transactions being hedged.
Forward-Looking Statements
This filing contains statements that the Company believes are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “forecast,” “continue,” “guidance”, “outlook” or words of similar meaning. Forward-looking statements address uncertain matters and include any statements that: are not historical, such as statements about our strategy, financial plans, outlook, objectives, plans, intentions or goals (including those related to our social, environmental and other sustainability goals); or address possible or future results of operations or financial performance, including statements relating to orders, revenues, operating margins and earnings per share growth. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated as of the date of this filing. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these expectations include, among other things, the following: further softening in U.S. residential water heater demand; negative impacts to the Company, particularly the demand for its products, resulting from global inflationary pressures or a potential recession in one or more of the markets in which the Company participates; the Company’s ability to continue to obtain commodities, components, parts and accessories on a timely basis through its supply chain and at expected costs; negative impacts to demand for the Company’s products, particularly commercial products, as a result of the severity and duration of the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; further weakening in U.S. residential or commercial construction or instability in the Company's replacement markets; inability of the Company to implement or maintain pricing actions; an uneven recovery of the Chinese economy or decline in the growth rate of consumer spending or housing sales in China; negative impact to the Company’s business in China as a result of future COVID-19 related disruptions there; negative impact to the Company's businesses from international tariffs, trade disputes and geopolitical differences, including the conflict in Ukraine; potential weakening in the high-efficiency boiler segment in the U.S.; substantial defaults in payment by, material reduction in purchases by or the loss, bankruptcy or insolvency of a major customer; foreign currency fluctuations; the Company’s inability to successfully integrate or achieve its strategic objectives resulting from acquisitions; competitive pressures on the Company’s businesses; the impact of potential information technology or data security breaches; changes in government regulations or regulatory requirements; the inability to respond to secular trends toward decarbonization and energy efficiency; and adverse developments in general economic, political and business conditions in key regions of the world. Forward-looking statements included in this filing are made only as of the date of this filing, and the Company is
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under no obligation to update these statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributed to the Company, or persons acting on its behalf, are qualified entirely by these cautionary statements.
Forward-looking and other statements in this Form 10-K regarding our environmental and other sustainability plans and goals are not an indication that these statements are necessarily material to investors or are required to be disclosed in our filings with the SEC. In addition, historical, current, and forward-looking social, environmental and sustainability-related statements may be based on standards for measuring progress that are still developing, internal controls and processes that continue to evolve, and assumptions that are subject to change in the future. All forward-looking statements made herein are based on information currently available to us as of the date of this Report. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
ITEM 7A – QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
See “Market Risk” above.