Max pain // Cboe delayed data · as of Aug 21, 2:47 AM ET

NVAX max pain

Spot (delayed)$8.39
Max pain · Fri, Sep 25$8-4.6% vs spot
Expected move (ATM straddle)±$1.45±17.3% by Fri, Sep 25
Put/Call OI0.0320 puts / 611 calls
Call wall$9largest call OI
Put wall$7.5largest put OI
IV3072.2%30-day implied vol
Net GEX+$8Kper 1% move · flip ≈ $8.5

Event risk before this expiration: Jobs report Fri, Sep 4 · CPI release Fri, Sep 11 · FOMC decision Wed, Sep 16 — macro releases historically overwhelm pinning effects; max pain reads weakest in event weeks.

Max pain levels

ExpiryMax painvs spotDTE
Fri, Aug 21$8-4.6%today
Fri, Aug 28$8-4.6%7d
Fri, Sep 4$8-4.6%14d
Fri, Sep 11$7.5-10.6%21d
Fri, Sep 18$8-4.6%28d
Fri, Sep 25$8-4.6%35d
Fri, Oct 2$8.5+1.3%42d
Fri, Oct 16$7-16.6%56d

The writer-loss curve — where max pain comes from

spot8789101112$1M$0
■ put-side pain■ call-side painTotal payout option writers would owe at each settle price (both sides, all open interest, ×100 shares) — low settles hurt put writers, high settles hurt call writers. The minimum — 8 — is the max pain price.

Open interest by strike · Fri, Sep 25

spot878910.512515515
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)NVAX open contracts per strike for Fri, Sep 25.

Open-interest change — building vs unwinding

Needs two observed snapshot days for this expiration — the comparison appears automatically once the next weekday snapshot lands. We diff real observations only; nothing is estimated.

Volume by strike · Fri, Sep 25

spot878910.51277
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Today's traded contracts per strike (delayed).

Implied volatility by strike · Fri, Sep 25

spot78910111296%64%
— call IV— put IVATM ≈ 68.6% · Quoted strikes only; illiquid wings with junk fits are dropped, not smoothed.

Gamma exposure by strike · Fri, Sep 25

spotflip 8.578910.512+$7K$7K
Net dealer gamma per strike, in dollars per 1% move, assuming the standard convention (dealers long calls, short puts) — an assumption, not an observation. Above the amber flip level hedging tends to dampen moves; below it, to amplify them.

Greeks by strike · Fri, Sep 25

Call ΔCall ΘStrikeΓVegaPut ΘPut Δ
0.81-0.0170.13030.01-0.01-0.19
0.73-0.017.50.16760.01-0.01-0.27
0.64-0.0180.19670.01-0.01-0.36
0.53-0.018.50.20750.01-0.01-0.47
0.44-0.0190.20030.01-0.01-0.56
0.29-0.01100.16180.01-0.01-0.71
0.24-0.0110.50.14100.01-0.01-0.76
0.20-0.01110.12220.01-0.01-0.80
0.14-0.01120.09170.01-0.01-0.86

Quoted contract greeks from the delayed feed (not modeled here); the highlighted row is nearest to spot. Δ per $1 of underlying · Θ per day · vega per IV point.

Stacked — layer the expirations

spot157.51012.5169K0
Call open interest per strike, stacked across the checked expirations — each color is one expiry. Strikes are pruned to the liquid center of each chain.

All expirations combined — total open interest

spot158.512162534K34K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Every expiration combined: 149K call contracts, 74K put contracts open.

Reading this honestly

Max pain is arithmetic, not prophecy: the settle price that would minimize what option writers pay out at expiration, computed from open interest alone. Prices sometimes gravitate toward heavy strikes into expiry — dealer hedging is a real flow — but the evidence that max pain predicts settlement better than chance is mixed, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Use it as a map of where positioning is stacked, next to the fundamentals and the earnings calendar, not as a target.

Data: Cboe delayed public feed (~15 minutes), refreshed here about every 15 minutes. Open interest itself updates once daily, before the open. Educational information, not investment advice.

Keep going: NVAX workspace · max pain, explained in full · options profit calculator · GEX, defined · pin risk