Max pain // Cboe delayed data · as of Oct 13, 5:06 PM ET

NOG max pain

Spot (delayed)$26.21
Max pain · Fri, Dec 18$20-23.7% vs spot
Expected move (ATM straddle)±$3.83±14.6% by Fri, Dec 18
Put/Call OI0.866K puts / 6K calls
Call wall$25largest call OI
Put wall$20largest put OI
IV3045.2%30-day implied vol
Net GEX+$170Kper 1% move · flip ≈ $25
Earnings · expectedThu, Nov 5usually after the close

Event risk before this expiration: CPI release Wed, Oct 14 · FOMC decision Wed, Oct 28 · Jobs report Fri, Nov 6 · CPI release Tue, Nov 10 · Jobs report Fri, Dec 4 · FOMC decision Wed, Dec 9 · CPI release Thu, Dec 10 — macro releases historically overwhelm pinning effects; max pain reads weakest in event weeks.

Max pain levels

ExpiryMax painvs spotDTE
Fri, Oct 16$24-8.4%3d
Fri, Nov 20$24-8.4%38d← 1st expiry after earnings (Thu, Nov 5)
Fri, Dec 18$20-23.7%66d
Fri, Jan 15$27+3.0%94d
Fri, Mar 19$20-23.7%157d
Fri, Dec 17$15-42.8%430d
Fri, Jan 21$23-12.2%465d
Fri, Jan 19$15-42.8%829d

The writer-loss curve — where max pain comes from

spot20101724313845$12M$0
■ put-side pain■ call-side painTotal payout option writers would owe at each settle price (both sides, all open interest, ×100 shares) — low settles hurt put writers, high settles hurt call writers. The minimum — 20 — is the max pain price.

Open interest by strike · Fri, Dec 18

spot201017222631364K4K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)NOG open contracts per strike for Fri, Dec 18.

Open-interest change — building vs unwinding

Needs two observed snapshot days for this expiration — the comparison appears automatically once the next weekday snapshot lands. We diff real observations only; nothing is estimated.

Volume by strike · Fri, Dec 18

spot201017222631361515
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Today's traded contracts per strike (delayed).

Implied volatility by strike · Fri, Dec 18

spot131926323945107%36%
— call IV— put IVATM ≈ 43.5% · Quoted strikes only; illiquid wings with junk fits are dropped, not smoothed.

Gamma exposure by strike · Fri, Dec 18

spotflip 25131822.5273237+$74K−$74K
Net dealer gamma per strike, in dollars per 1% move, assuming the standard convention (dealers long calls, short puts) — an assumption, not an observation. Above the amber flip level hedging tends to dampen moves; below it, to amplify them.

Greeks by strike · Fri, Dec 18

Call ΔCall ΘStrikeΓVegaPut ΘPut Δ
0.90-0.01200.03180.02-0.01-0.10
0.86-0.01210.03980.02-0.01-0.14
0.82-0.01220.04920.03-0.01-0.18
0.79-0.0122.50.05420.03-0.01-0.20
0.77-0.01230.05920.03-0.01-0.23
0.70-0.01240.06900.04-0.01-0.30
0.62-0.01250.07670.04-0.01-0.37
0.54-0.01260.08090.04-0.01-0.45
0.46-0.01270.08090.04-0.01-0.53
0.39-0.01280.07710.04-0.01-0.60
0.32-0.01290.07100.04-0.01-0.67
0.27-0.01300.06370.04-0.01-0.72
0.23-0.01310.05630.03-0.01-0.76
0.19-0.01320.04950.03-0.01-0.80
0.16-0.01330.04330.03-0.01-0.83

Quoted contract greeks from the delayed feed (not modeled here); the highlighted row is nearest to spot. Showing 15 strikes around the money — all 30 are in the CSV. Δ per $1 of underlying · Θ per day · vega per IV point.

Stacked — layer the expirations

spot1020242934404K0
Call open interest per strike, stacked across the checked expirations — each color is one expiry. Strikes are pruned to the liquid center of each chain.

All expirations combined — total open interest

spot1017222733404K4K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Every expiration combined: 24K call contracts, 14K put contracts open.

Reading this honestly

Max pain is arithmetic, not prophecy: the settle price that would minimize what option writers pay out at expiration, computed from open interest alone. Prices sometimes gravitate toward heavy strikes into expiry — dealer hedging is a real flow — but the evidence that max pain predicts settlement better than chance is mixed, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Use it as a map of where positioning is stacked, next to the fundamentals and the earnings calendar, not as a target.

Data: Cboe delayed public feed (~15 minutes), refreshed here about every 15 minutes. Open interest itself updates once daily, before the open. Educational information, not investment advice.

Keep going: NOG workspace · max pain, explained in full · options profit calculator · GEX, defined · pin risk