Max pain // Cboe delayed data · as of Aug 6, 2:48 AM ET

MRK max pain

Spot (delayed)$128.17
Max pain · Fri, Oct 16$120-6.4% vs spot
Expected move (ATM straddle)±$13±10.1% by Fri, Oct 16
Put/Call OI1.0418K puts / 17K calls
Call wall$130largest call OI
Put wall$105largest put OI
IV3028.0%30-day implied vol
Net GEX+$2.3Mper 1% move · flip ≈ $130

Event risk before this expiration: Jobs report Fri, Aug 7 · CPI release Wed, Aug 12 · Jobs report Fri, Sep 4 · CPI release Fri, Sep 11 · FOMC decision Wed, Sep 16 · Jobs report Fri, Oct 2 · CPI release Wed, Oct 14 — macro releases historically overwhelm pinning effects; max pain reads weakest in event weeks.

Max pain levels

ExpiryMax painvs spotDTE
Fri, Aug 7$128-0.1%1d
Fri, Aug 14$127-0.9%8d
Fri, Aug 21$125-2.5%15d
Fri, Aug 28$125-2.5%22d
Fri, Sep 4$129+0.6%29d
Fri, Sep 11$126-1.7%36d
Fri, Sep 18$100-22.0%43d
Fri, Oct 16$120-6.4%71d

The writer-loss curve — where max pain comes from

spot1206588111134157180$79M$0
■ put-side pain■ call-side painTotal payout option writers would owe at each settle price (both sides, all open interest, ×100 shares) — low settles hurt put writers, high settles hurt call writers. The minimum — 120 — is the max pain price.

Open interest by strike · Fri, Oct 16

spot12065851051251451654K4K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)MRK open contracts per strike for Fri, Oct 16.

Open-interest change — building vs unwinding

Needs two observed snapshot days for this expiration — the comparison appears automatically once the next weekday snapshot lands. We diff real observations only; nothing is estimated.

Volume by strike · Fri, Oct 16

spot1206585105125145165197197
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Today's traded contracts per strike (delayed).

Implied volatility by strike · Fri, Oct 16

spot658811113415718082%27%
— call IV— put IVATM ≈ 28.3% · Quoted strikes only; illiquid wings with junk fits are dropped, not smoothed.

Gamma exposure by strike · Fri, Oct 16

spotflip 1306585105125145165+$1.4M$1.4M
Net dealer gamma per strike, in dollars per 1% move, assuming the standard convention (dealers long calls, short puts) — an assumption, not an observation. Above the amber flip level hedging tends to dampen moves; below it, to amplify them.

Greeks by strike · Fri, Oct 16

Call ΔCall ΘStrikeΓVegaPut ΘPut Δ
0.98-0.01950.00280.03-0.01-0.03
0.96-0.011000.00440.05-0.01-0.05
0.94-0.011050.00720.07-0.02-0.07
0.89-0.021100.01110.10-0.03-0.12
0.82-0.031150.01580.15-0.03-0.19
0.73-0.041200.02050.19-0.04-0.28
0.62-0.041250.02400.22-0.04-0.39
0.49-0.041300.02520.23-0.04-0.52
0.37-0.041350.02390.21-0.04-0.64
0.27-0.041400.02080.19-0.04-0.74
0.18-0.031450.01680.15-0.03-0.83
0.12-0.021500.01270.12-0.02-0.89
0.08-0.021550.00920.09-0.01-0.93
0.05-0.011600.00660.06-0.01-0.96
0.04-0.011650.00480.05-0.01-0.97

Quoted contract greeks from the delayed feed (not modeled here); the highlighted row is nearest to spot. Showing 15 strikes around the money — all 24 are in the CSV. Δ per $1 of underlying · Θ per day · vega per IV point.

Stacked — layer the expirations

spot651081191291391508K0
Call open interest per strike, stacked across the checked expirations — each color is one expiry. Strikes are pruned to the liquid center of each chain.

All expirations combined — total open interest

spot4010011612814015530K30K
■ calls (up)■ puts (down)Every expiration combined: 257K call contracts, 202K put contracts open.

Reading this honestly

Max pain is arithmetic, not prophecy: the settle price that would minimize what option writers pay out at expiration, computed from open interest alone. Prices sometimes gravitate toward heavy strikes into expiry — dealer hedging is a real flow — but the evidence that max pain predicts settlement better than chance is mixed, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Use it as a map of where positioning is stacked, next to the fundamentals and the earnings calendar, not as a target.

Data: Cboe delayed public feed (~15 minutes), refreshed here about every 15 minutes. Open interest itself updates once daily, before the open. Educational information, not investment advice.

Keep going: MRK workspace · max pain, explained in full · options profit calculator · GEX, defined · pin risk