Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

MSP Recovery, Inc. (MSPR)

CIK 1802450 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 3 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
not every sub-rating was computable; treat as a floor
Offering ability
HIGHS-1/A on file 2024-09-17
= is there a registration (S-1/S-3 family) on file without a later withdrawal
no structured fee data on the live registrations, so this is a yes/no, not a size
Overhead supply
LOWwarrants = 4% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
NOT COMPUTEDunder 3 years of share history on file
= share count now vs 3 years ago
Cash need
HIGH~0.1 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

Fewer than two cover-page share counts on file, so there is no history to chart.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool

Warrants

TrancheWarrantsExercise priceTermNotes
New Warrants894.8Mnot tagged
Number of Ten Warrant1.4M$0.0175
Number of Two Warrant1.4M$0.0007
Monthly Virage Warrants1.2M$0.00072y
Initial Virage Warrant161,705$0.0175

Tranches exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Nov 19, 2025. Groupings can overlap (a “Series E and F” row is not additive with a “Series E” row), so do not sum this column. A tranche the filer did not tag is absent here, not absent from the cap table. DOWN-ROUND = the filer tagged price-protection accounting scoped to that tranche.

Warrants outstanding: 2.8M underlying shares, as reported Sep 30, 2025 (10-Q).

Reported exercise price: $0.0116 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Rough fully diluted estimate: 68.9M = 66.1M O/S + 2.8M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

NotePrincipalCarryingConv. priceRateIf converted
Fourth Convertible Notes$750,000not tagged
Fifth Convertible Note$750,000not tagged
Sixth Convertible Notes$750,000not tagged

Notes exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Nov 19, 2025. Principal is face amount as tagged, not what remains after repurchases unless the filer updated the tag. A note the filer did not dimension is absent here, not absent from the balance sheet; the exhibits stay the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding66.1MJul 31, 2022
+ New Warrants (if exercised)894.8MSep 30, 2025
+ Number of Ten Warrant (if exercised)1.4MSep 30, 2025
+ Number of Two Warrant (if exercised)1.4MSep 30, 2025
+ Monthly Virage Warrants (if exercised)1.2MDec 31, 2024
+ Initial Virage Warrant (if exercised)161,705Jan 1, 2024
Fully diluted estimate965.1M+1359.1% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

S-1Jun 5, 2024no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →

Last 12 months: 1 executed · 0 registered.

UPDATEAug 14, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEAug 14, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEAug 14, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEAug 14, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEAug 3, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEAug 3, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEAug 3, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEAug 3, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEJul 13, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEJul 13, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEJul 13, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEJul 13, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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