Is MAIA diluting shareholders?

Read three numbers together: shares outstanding over time (60.8M as of 2026-08-10), warrants that can convert into new shares (13.1M reported), and how much cash runway remains. A company short on cash with live registrations is structurally likely to issue shares.

Where do these numbers come from?

SEC EDGAR only: the XBRL company-facts API for shares, warrants and cash, and filing metadata for registrations and pricings. Every figure shows its source form, and nothing here is estimated by us beyond the arithmetic stated next to it.

Why might a warrant tranche be missing from the table?

The tranche table is built from the dimensions the company tagged in its own 10-Q or 10-K XBRL. A tranche the filer chose not to dimension does not appear, and its absence proves nothing: the exhibits remain the ground truth. Everything shown carries the filing it came from.

Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. (MAIA)

CIK 1878313 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk

HIGHworst of 3 computed sub-ratings (offering ability)

= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting

not every sub-rating was computable; treat as a floor

Offering ability

HIGH$245M registered

= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)

registered capacity, not remaining: amounts already taken down are not subtracted yet

Overhead supply

MEDIUMwarrants = 22% of O/S

= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)

warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this

Historical dilution

HIGH+328% O/S in 3y

= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative

Cash need

NOT COMPUTEDrunway not computable from latest facts

= cash vs trailing operating burn

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

Latest: 60.8M shares as of Aug 10, 2026 (10-Q).

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

Warrants outstanding: 13.1M underlying shares, as reported Dec 31, 2025 (10-K).

Reported exercise price: $1.3 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $2.7M as of Dec 31, 2024.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 73.9M = 60.8M O/S + 13.1M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

No convertible-note facts tagged in the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. If convertible notes exist, their terms live in exhibit prose for this filer and are not parsed; absence of a tag is not proof of absence. The exhibits are the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding	60.8M	Aug 10, 2026
+ Warrants (aggregate, as tagged) (if exercised)	13.1M	Dec 31, 2025
Fully diluted estimate	73.9M	+21.5% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $245.0Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

S-3Sep 25, 2026$1.0M registeredfiling →

S-3Aug 21, 2026$244.0M registeredfiling →

Last 12 months: 5 executed · 2 registered.

UPDATEOct 7, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →

EFFECTIVEOct 6, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

UPDATEOct 2, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →

REGISTEREDSep 25, 2026S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3 →

EFFECTIVEAug 28, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

REGISTEREDAug 21, 2026S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3 →

EXECUTEDMay 14, 2026Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →

EXECUTEDMar 4, 2026Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →

EXECUTEDMar 2, 2026Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →

EXECUTEDDec 17, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K →

EXECUTEDOct 14, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K →

EXECUTEDSep 30, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K →

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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