Is SERA diluting shareholders?

Read three numbers together: shares outstanding over time (29.3M as of 2021-08-25), warrants that can convert into new shares (13.9M reported), and how much cash runway remains (~21.751551340592435 months). A company short on cash with live registrations is structurally likely to issue shares.

Where do these numbers come from?

SEC EDGAR only: the XBRL company-facts API for shares, warrants and cash, and filing metadata for registrations and pricings. Every figure shows its source form, and nothing here is estimated by us beyond the arithmetic stated next to it.

Why might a warrant tranche be missing from the table?

The tranche table is built from the dimensions the company tagged in its own 10-Q or 10-K XBRL. A tranche the filer chose not to dimension does not appear, and its absence proves nothing: the exhibits remain the ground truth. Everything shown carries the filing it came from.

Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. (SERA)

CIK 1534969 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk

HIGHworst of 3 computed signals (offering ability)

= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting

not every sub-rating was computable; treat as a floor

Offering ability

HIGHS-3 on file 2024-08-07

= is there a registration (S-1/S-3 family) on file without a later withdrawal

no structured fee data on the live registrations, so this is a yes/no, not a size

Overhead supply

MEDIUMwarrants = 47% of O/S

= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)

warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this

Historical dilution

NOT COMPUTEDunder 3 years of share history on file

= share count now vs 3 years ago

Cash need

MEDIUM~21.8 months of runway

= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

Fewer than two cover-page share counts on file, so there is no history to chart.

Cash runway

Funded — but tight

~22 months of cash · watch

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

Warrants outstanding: 13.9M underlying shares, as reported Jun 30, 2026 (10-Q).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $0 as of Mar 31, 2022.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 43.2M = 29.3M O/S + 13.9M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

No convertible-note facts tagged in the 10-Q filed Aug 12, 2026. If convertible notes exist, their terms live in exhibit prose for this filer and are not parsed; absence of a tag is not proof of absence. The exhibits are the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding	29.3M	Aug 25, 2021
+ Warrants (aggregate, as tagged) (if exercised)	13.9M	Jun 30, 2026
Fully diluted estimate	43.2M	+47.4% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

S-3Aug 7, 2024no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →

Last 12 months: 1 executed · 0 registered.

EXECUTEDMar 18, 2026Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →

EXECUTEDFeb 11, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →

EXECUTEDFeb 10, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →

EXECUTEDAug 13, 2024Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →

EFFECTIVEAug 13, 2024SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

REGISTEREDAug 7, 2024S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3 →

EXECUTEDJul 16, 2021Final prospectus — offering priced (typical for IPOs and marketed share deals)424B4 →

EFFECTIVEJul 14, 2021SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

REGISTEREDJul 8, 2021S-1/A registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-1/A →

REGISTEREDJun 11, 2021S-1 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-1 →

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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