Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.
Tredegar has exposure to the volatility of interest rates, polyethylene and polypropylene resin prices, aluminum ingot and scrap prices, energy prices, foreign currencies and emerging markets. See Liquidity and Capital Resources above regarding interest rate exposures related to borrowings under the ABL Facility.
Profit margins in Aluminum Extrusions are sensitive to fluctuations in aluminum ingot and scrap prices as well as natural gas prices (natural gas is the principal energy source used to operate its casting furnaces). Changes in polyethylene resin prices and the timing of those changes could have a significant impact on profit margins in PE Films. There is no assurance of the Company’s ability to pass through higher raw material and energy costs to its customers.
The purchase price of raw materials fluctuates on a monthly basis; therefore, Aluminum Extrusions pricing policies generally allow the Company to pass the underlying index cost of aluminum and certain alloys through to the vast majority of our customers so that we remain substantially neutral to metal pricing. In the normal course of business, Aluminum Extrusions enters into fixed-price forward sales contracts with certain customers for the sale of fixed quantities of aluminum extrusions at scheduled intervals. In order to hedge its exposure to aluminum price volatility (see the chart below) under these fixed-price arrangements, which generally have a duration of not more than 12 months, the Company enters into a combination of forward purchase commitments and futures contracts to acquire or hedge aluminum, based on the scheduled deliveries. See Note 7 for additional information.
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The volatility of quarterly average aluminum prices is shown in the chart below.
Source: Quarterly averages computed by the Company using London Metal Exchange daily aluminum cash prices plus the Midwest premium.
The volatility of quarterly average natural gas prices is shown in the chart below.
Source: Quarterly averages computed by Tredegar using monthly NYMEX settlement prices.
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The volatility of average quarterly prices of polyethylene resin in the U.S. (a primary raw material for PE Films) is shown in the chart below.
Source: Quarterly averages computed by Tredegar using monthly data provided by Oil Price Information Service (OPIS). In January 2023, OPIS reflected a 41 cents per pound non-market adjustment based on their estimate of the growth of discounts in the prior periods. The fourth quarter 2022 average rate of $0.60 per pound is shown on a pro forma basis as if the non-market adjustment was made in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The price of resin is driven by several factors, including supply and demand and the price of oil, ethylene and natural gas. Selling prices to customers are set considering numerous factors, including the expected volatility of resin prices. PE Films has index-based pass-through raw material cost arrangements with customers. However, under certain agreements, changes in resin prices are not passed through for a period of 90 days. In response to unprecedented cost increases and supply issues for polyethylene and polypropylene resin, Tredegar Surface Protection implemented a quarterly resin cost pass-through mechanism, effective July 1, 2021, for all products and customers not previously covered by such arrangements. Pricing on the remainder of the business is based upon raw material costs and supply/demand dynamics within the markets that the Company competes.
Tredegar attempts to match the pricing and cost of its products in the same currency and generally views the volatility of foreign currencies and the corresponding impact on earnings and cash flow as part of the overall risk of operating in a global environment (for additional information, see trends for the Chinese Yuan in the chart on the below). Exports from the U.S. are generally denominated in U.S. Dollars. The Company’s foreign currency exposure on income from foreign operations relates to the Chinese Yuan.
PE Films is generally able to match the currency of its sales and costs for its product lines. Tredegar estimates that the change in the value of foreign currencies relative to the U.S. Dollar for PE Films had an unfavorable impact to EBITDA from ongoing operations of $0.1 million for the second quarter of 2025 and the first six months of 2025 compared to the same periods of 2024.
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Trends for the Chinese Yuan exchange rates relative to the U.S. Dollar are shown in the chart below.
Source: Quarterly averages computed by Tredegar using daily closing data provided by Bloomberg.
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