Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
In the normal course of business, we enter into transactions in various financial instruments that expose us to various types of risk, both on and off-balance sheet, which are associated with such financial instruments and markets for which we invest. These financial instruments expose us to varying degrees of market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, off-balance sheet risk and prepayment risk. Many of these risks have been augmented due to the continuing economic disruptions caused by inflationary pressures, rising energy costs, heightened geopolitical tensions, and the impact of pandemics and epidemics which remain uncertain and difficult to predict. We continue to monitor the impact and effect of these risks in our operations.
Market risk. Market risk is the potential adverse changes in the values of the financial instrument due to unfavorable changes in the level or volatility of interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, or market values of the underlying financial instruments. We attempt to mitigate our exposure to market risk by entering into offsetting transactions, which may include purchase or sale of interest-bearing securities and equity securities.
Credit risk. We are subject to credit risk in connection with our investments in LMM loans and LMM ABS and other target assets we may acquire in the future. The credit risk related to these investments pertains to the ability and willingness of the borrowers to pay, which is assessed before credit is granted or renewed and periodically reviewed throughout the loan or security term. We believe that loan credit quality is primarily determined by the borrowers’ credit profiles and loan characteristics. We seek to mitigate this risk by seeking to acquire assets at appropriate prices given anticipated and unanticipated losses and by deploying a value-driven approach to underwriting and diligence, consistent with our historical investment strategy, with a focus on projected cash flows and potential risks to cash flow. We further mitigate our risk of potential losses while managing and servicing our loans by performing various workout and loss mitigation strategies with delinquent borrowers. Nevertheless, unanticipated credit losses could occur which could adversely impact operating results.
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Interest rate risk. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations and other factors beyond our control.
Our operating results will depend, in part, on differences between the income from our investments and our financing costs. Our debt financing is based on a floating rate of interest calculated on a fixed spread over the relevant index, subject to a floor, as determined by the particular financing arrangement. The general impact of changing interest rates is discussed above under “— Factors Impacting Operating Results — Changes in Market Interest Rates.” In the event of a significant rising interest rate environment and/or economic downturn, defaults could increase and result in credit losses to us, which could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity, results of operations and prospects. Furthermore, such defaults could have an adverse effect on the spread between our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities.
Additionally, non-performing LMM loans are not as interest rate sensitive as performing loans, as earnings on non-performing loans are often generated from restructuring the assets through loss mitigation strategies and opportunistically disposing of them. Because non-performing LMM loans are short-term assets, the discount rates used for valuation are based on short-term market interest rates, which may not move in tandem with long-term market interest rates.
The table below projects the impact on our interest income and expense for the twelve-month period following June 30, 2024, assuming an immediate increase or decrease of 25, 50, 75, and 100 basis points in interest rates.
12-month pretax net interest income sensitivity profiles
Instantaneous change in rates
(in thousands)
25 basis point increase
50 basis point increase
75 basis point increase
100 basis point increase
25 basis point decrease
50 basis point decrease
75 basis point decrease
100 basis point decrease
Assets:
Loans
$
17,828
$
35,661
$
53,494
$
71,328
$
(17,747)
$
(35,443)
$
(53,092)
$
(70,651)
Interest rate swap hedges
1,432
2,865
4,297
5,729
(1,432)
(2,865)
(4,297)
(5,729)
Total
$
19,260
$
38,526
$
57,791
$
77,057
$
(19,179)
$
(38,308)
$
(57,389)
$
(76,380)
Liabilities:
Secured borrowings
(4,949)
(9,899)
(14,848)
(19,797)
4,949
9,899
14,848
19,797
Securitized debt obligations
(9,353)
(18,706)
(28,060)
(37,413)
9,353
18,706
28,060
37,413
Senior secured notes and corporate debt
(278)
(556)
(834)
(1,113)
278
556
834
1,113
Total
$
(14,580)
$
(29,161)
$
(43,742)
$
(58,323)
$
14,580
$
29,161
$
43,742
$
58,323
Total Net Impact to Net Interest Income (Expense)
$
4,680
$
9,365
$
14,049
$
18,734
$
(4,599)
$
(9,147)
$
(13,647)
$
(18,057)
Such hypothetical impact of interest rates on our variable rate debt does not consider the effect of any change in overall economic activity that could occur in a rising interest rate environment. Further, in the event of such a change in interest rates, we may take actions to further mitigate our exposure to such a change. However, due to the uncertainty of the specific actions that would be taken and their possible effects, this analysis assumes no changes in our financial structure.
Liquidity risk. Liquidity risk arises in our investments and the general financing of our investing activities. It includes the risk of not being able to fund acquisition and origination activities at settlement dates and/or liquidate positions in a timely manner at a reasonable price, in addition to potential increases in collateral requirements during times of heightened market volatility. If we were forced to dispose of an illiquid investment at an inopportune time, we might be forced to do so at a substantial discount to the market value, resulting in a realized loss. We attempt to mitigate our liquidity risk by regularly monitoring the liquidity of our investments in LMM loans, ABS and other financial instruments. Factors such as our expected exit strategy for, the bid to offer spread of, and the number of broker dealers making an active market in a particular strategy and the availability of long-term funding, are considered in analyzing liquidity risk. To reduce any perceived disparity between the liquidity and the terms of the debt instruments in which we invest, we attempt to minimize our reliance on short-term financing arrangements. While we may finance certain investments in security positions using traditional margin arrangements and reverse repurchase agreements, other financial instruments such as collateralized debt obligations, and other longer-term financing vehicles may be utilized to provide us with sources of long-term financing.
Prepayment risk . Prepayment risk is the risk that principal will be repaid at a different rate than anticipated, causing the return on certain investments to be less than expected. As we receive prepayments of principal on our assets, any premiums paid on such assets are amortized against interest income. In general, an increase in prepayment rates accelerates the amortization of purchase premiums, thereby reducing the interest income earned on the assets. Conversely, discounts on such assets are accreted into interest income. In general, an increase in prepayment rates accelerates the accretion of purchase discounts, thereby increasing the interest income earned on the assets.
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LMM loan and ABS extension risk. Our Manager computes the projected weighted-average life of our assets based on assumptions regarding the rate at which the borrowers will prepay the mortgages or extend. If prepayment rates decrease in a rising interest rate environment or extension options are exercised, the life of the fixed-rate assets could extend beyond the term of the secured debt agreements. This could have a negative impact on our results of operations. In some situations, we may be forced to sell assets to maintain adequate liquidity, which could cause us to incur losses.
Real estate risk . The market values of commercial assets are subject to volatility and may be affected adversely by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, national, regional and local economic conditions (which may be adversely affected by industry slowdowns and other factors); local real estate conditions (such as an oversupply of housing, retail, industrial, office or other commercial space); changes or continued weakness in specific industry segments; construction quality, construction cost, age and design; demographic factors; and retroactive changes to building or similar codes. In addition, decreases in property values reduce the value of the collateral and the potential proceeds available to a borrower to repay the underlying loans, which could also cause us to suffer losses.
Fair value risk . The estimated fair value of our investments fluctuates primarily due to changes in interest rates. Generally, in a rising interest rate environment, the estimated fair value of the fixed-rate investments would be expected to decrease; conversely, in a decreasing interest rate environment, the estimated fair value of the fixed-rate investments would be expected to increase. As market volatility increases or liquidity decreases, the fair value of our assets recorded and/or disclosed may be adversely impacted. Our economic exposure is generally limited to our net investment position as we seek to fund fixed rate investments with fixed rate financing or variable rate financing hedged with interest rate swaps.
Counterparty risk. We finance the acquisition of a significant portion of our commercial mortgage loans, MBS and other assets with our repurchase agreements, credit facilities, and other financing agreements. In connection with these financing arrangements, we pledge our mortgage loans and securities as collateral to secure the borrowings. The amount of collateral pledged will typically exceed the amount of the borrowings (i.e . the haircut) such that the borrowings will be over-collateralized. As a result, we are exposed to the counterparty if, during the term of the financing, a lender should default on its obligation and we are not able to recover our pledged assets. The amount of this exposure is the difference between the amount loaned to us plus interest due to the counterparty and the fair value of the collateral pledged by us to the lender including accrued interest receivable on such collateral.
We are exposed to changing interest rates and market conditions, which affects cash flows associated with borrowings. We enter into derivative instruments, such as interest rate swaps, to mitigate these risks. Interest rate swaps are used to mitigate the exposure to changes in interest rates and involve the receipt of variable-rate interest amounts from a counterparty in exchange for us making payments based on a fixed interest rate over the life of the swap contract.
Certain of our subsidiaries have entered into over-the-counter (“OTC”) interest rate swap agreements to hedge risks associated with movements in interest rates. Because certain interest rate swaps were not cleared through a central counterparty, we remain exposed to the counterparty's ability to perform its obligations under each such swap and cannot look to the creditworthiness of a central counterparty for performance. As a result, if an OTC swap counterparty cannot perform under the terms of an interest rate swap, our subsidiary would not receive payments due under that agreement, we may lose any unrealized gain associated with the interest rate swap and the hedged liability would cease to be hedged by the interest rate swap. While we would seek to terminate the relevant OTC swap transaction and may have a claim against the defaulting counterparty for any losses, including unrealized gains, there is no assurance that we would be able to recover such amounts or to replace the relevant swap on economically viable terms or at all. In such case, we could be forced to cover our unhedged liabilities at the then current market price. We may also be at risk for any collateral we have pledged to secure our obligations under the OTC interest rate swap if the counterparty becomes insolvent or files for bankruptcy. Therefore, upon a default by an interest rate swap agreement counterparty, the interest rate swap would no longer mitigate the impact of changes in interest rates as intended.
The table below presents information with respect to any counterparty for repurchase agreements for which our Company had greater than 5% of stockholders’ equity at risk in the aggregate.
June 30, 2024
(in thousands)
Counterparty
Rating
Amount of Risk
Weighted Average Months to Maturity for Agreement
Percentage of Stockholders’ Equity
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
A+/Aa2
$ 577,031
24
25.2%
Morgan Stanley Bank, N.A.
A+/Aa3
$ 125,979
11
5.5%
Credit Suisse AG
A+/Aa2
$ 146,754
10
6.4%
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In the table above,
● The counterparty ratings presented are the long-term issuer credit rating as rated by S&P and Moody’s, respectively.
● The amount at risk reflects the difference between the amount loaned through repurchase agreements, including interest payable, and the cash and fair value of the assets pledged as collateral, including accrued interest receivable.
Capital market risk. We are exposed to risks related to the equity capital markets, and our related ability to raise capital through the issuance of our common stock or other equity instruments. We are also exposed to risks related to the debt capital markets, and our related ability to finance our business through borrowings under repurchase obligations or other financing arrangements. As a REIT, we are required to distribute a significant portion of our taxable income annually, which constrains our ability to accumulate operating cash flow and therefore requires us to utilize debt or equity capital to finance our business. We seek to mitigate these risks by monitoring the debt and equity capital markets to inform our decisions on the amount, timing, and terms of capital we raise.
Off-balance sheet risk. Off-balance sheet risk refers to situations where the maximum potential loss resulting from changes in the level or volatility of interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates or market values of the underlying financial instruments may result in changes in the value of a particular financial instrument in excess of the reported amounts of such assets and liabilities currently reflected in the accompanying consolidated balance sheets.
Inflation risk. Most of our assets and liabilities are interest rate sensitive in nature. As a result, interest rates and other factors influence our performance significantly more than inflation does. Changes in interest rates may, but do not necessarily, correlate with inflation rates and/or changes in inflation rates. Refer to “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk – Interest Rate Risk” in this Form 10-Q for a discussion on interest rate sensitivity.
Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.