Item 1A. Risk Factors
ITEM 1A: RISK FACTORS
We are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could materially affect our business, results of operations, financial condition, future results, and the trading price of our common stock. You should read carefully the following information together with the information appearing in Part I, Item 1A, Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 as filed with the United States (“U.S.”) Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on February 10, 2023 (“2022 Form 10-K”), as updated by subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q as filed with the SEC (“Forms 10-Q”). The following information supplements and, to the extent inconsistent, supersedes some of the information appearing in the Risk Factors section of our 2022 Form 10‑K and Forms 10-Q. These risk factors, as well as our condensed consolidated financial statements and notes thereto and the other information appearing in this report, should be reviewed carefully for important information regarding risks that affect us.
LEGAL, REGULATORY AND COMPLIANCE RISKS
Our business is subject to extensive government regulation and oversight. Our failure to comply with extensive, complex, overlapping, and frequently changing rules, regulations, and legal interpretations could materially harm our business.
Our business is subject to complex and changing laws, rules, regulations, policies, and legal interpretations in the markets in which we offer services directly or through partners, including, but not limited to, those governing: banking, credit, deposit taking, cross-border and domestic money transmission, prepaid access, foreign currency exchange, privacy, data protection, data governance, cybersecurity, banking secrecy, digital payments, cryptocurrency, payment services (including payment processing and settlement services), lending, fraud detection, consumer protection, antitrust and competition, economic and trade sanctions, anti-money laundering, and counter-terrorist financing.
Regulators and legislators globally have been establishing, evolving, and increasing their regulatory authority, oversight, and enforcement in a manner that impacts our business. As we introduce new products and services and expand into new markets, including through acquisitions, we expect to become subject to additional regulations, restrictions, and licensing requirements. As we expand and localize our international activities, we expect that our obligations in the markets in which we operate will continue to increase. In addition, because we facilitate sales of goods and provide services to customers worldwide, one or more jurisdictions may claim that we or our customers are required to comply with their laws, which may impose different, more specific, or conflicting obligations on us, as well as broader liability.
Any failure or perceived failure to comply with existing or new laws, regulations, or orders of any government authority (including changes to or expansion of their interpretation) may subject us to significant fines, penalties, criminal and civil lawsuits, forfeiture of significant assets, and enforcement actions in one or more jurisdictions; result in additional compliance and licensure requirements; cause us to lose existing licenses or prevent or delay us from obtaining additional licenses that may be required for our business; increase regulatory scrutiny of our business; divert management’s time and attention from our business; restrict our operations; lead to increased friction for customers; force us to make changes to our business practices, products, or operations; require us to engage in remediation activities; or delay planned transactions, product launches, or improvements. Any of the foregoing could, individually or in the aggregate, harm our reputation, damage our brands and business, and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. The complexity of U.S. federal and state and international regulatory and enforcement regimes, coupled with the global scope of our operations and the evolving global regulatory environment, could result in a single event prompting a large number of overlapping investigations and legal and regulatory proceedings by multiple government authorities in different jurisdictions. While we have implemented policies and procedures designed to help ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations, there can be no assurance that our employees, contractors, and agents will not violate such laws and regulations.
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Payments Regulation
In the U.S., PayPal, Inc. (a wholly-owned subsidiary) holds licenses to operate as a money transmitter (or its equivalent) in the states where such licenses are required, as well as in the District of Columbia and certain territories. If we fail to comply with applicable laws or regulations required to maintain our licenses, we could be subject to liability and/or additional restrictions, forced to cease doing business with residents of certain states or territories, forced to change our business practices, or required to obtain additional licenses or regulatory approvals, which could impose substantial costs and harm our business.
While we currently allow our customers to send payments from approximately 200 markets, we allow customers in only approximately half of those markets (including the U.S.) to also receive payments, in some cases with significant restrictions on the manner in which customers can hold balances or withdraw funds. These restrictions may limit our ability to grow our business.
Outside of the U.S., we principally provide our services to customers in the European Economic Area (“EEA”) and the United Kingdom (“U.K.”) through PayPal (Europe) S.à.r.l. et Cie, S.C.A. (“PayPal (Europe)”), our wholly-owned subsidiary that is licensed and subject to regulation as a credit institution in Luxembourg. PayPal (Europe) may be subject to enforcement actions and significant fines if it violates applicable requirements. Additionally, compliance with applicable laws and regulations could become more costly and operationally difficult to manage due to potentially inconsistent interpretations and domestic regulations by various countries in the region. Applicable regulation relating to payments, anti-money laundering and digital services, which are key focus areas of regulators and subject to extensive new regulation, could subject us to additional and complex obligations, risks and associated costs. If the business activities of PayPal (Europe) exceed certain thresholds, or if the European Central Bank (“ECB”) so determines, PayPal (Europe) may be deemed a significant supervised entity and certain activities of PayPal (Europe) would become directly supervised by the ECB, rather than by the Luxembourg Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier, which could subject us to additional requirements and would likely increase compliance costs. PayPal (Europe) is also subject to regulation by the ECB under the oversight framework for electronic payment instruments, schemes and arrangements (PISA), which may also lead to increased compliance obligations and costs.
In many of the other markets outside the U.S. in which we do business, we serve our customers through PayPal Pte. Ltd., our wholly-owned subsidiary based in Singapore. PayPal Pte. Ltd. is supervised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). The Payment Services Act came into effect in Singapore in January 2020. As of July 1, 2023, PayPal Pte. Ltd. has been issued a Major Payment Institution license by the MAS to continue to provide payments services. In order to maintain this license, we are required to comply with applicable regulatory requirements, which will result in increased operational complexity and costs for our Singapore and international operations.
In many of the markets outside the U.S. (other than Singapore) served by PayPal Pte. Ltd. or by local branches or subsidiaries subject to local regulatory supervision or oversight, as the case may be, there may be uncertainty whether our Singapore-based service is subject only to Singapore law or also to other local laws, and whether such local laws might require a payment processor like us to be licensed as a payments service, bank, financial institution, or otherwise.
There are substantial costs and potential product and operational changes involved in maintaining and renewing licenses, certifications, and approvals, and we could be subject to enforcement actions, fines, and litigation if we are found to violate any of these requirements. There can be no assurance that we will be able to (or decide to) continue to apply for or obtain any licenses, renewals, certifications, and approvals in any jurisdiction. In certain markets, we may need to rely on local banks or other partners to process payments and conduct foreign currency exchange transactions in local currency, and local regulators may use their authority over such local partners to prohibit, restrict, or limit us from doing business. Any of the foregoing could, individually or in the aggregate, result in substantial additional costs, delay or preclude planned transactions, product launches or improvements, require significant and costly operational changes, impose restrictions, limitations, or additional requirements on our business, products and services, or prevent or limit us from providing our products or services in a given market.
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Cryptocurrency Regulation and Related Risks
Our customer cryptocurrency offerings could subject us to additional regulations, licensing requirements, or other obligations or liabilities. Within the U.S., we are regulated by the New York Department of Financial Services as a virtual currency business, which does not qualify us to engage in securities brokerage or dealing activities. The regulatory status of particular cryptocurrencies is unclear under existing law. For example, if the SEC were to assert that any of the cryptocurrencies we support are securities, the SEC could assert that our activities involving that cryptocurrency require securities broker-dealer registration or other obligations under the federal securities laws. The rapidly evolving regulatory landscape with respect to cryptocurrency may subject us to additional licensing and regulatory obligations or to inquiries or investigations from the SEC, other regulators and governmental authorities, and require us to make product changes, restrict or discontinue product offerings, implement additional and potentially costly controls, or take other actions. If we fail to comply with regulations, requirements, prohibitions or other obligations applicable to us, we could face regulatory or other enforcement actions, potential fines, and other consequences.
We hold our customers’ cryptocurrency assets through one or more third-party custodians. Financial and third-party risks related to our customer cryptocurrency offerings, such as inappropriate access to, theft, or destruction of cryptocurrency assets held by our custodians, insufficient insurance coverage by a custodian to reimburse us for all such losses, a custodian’s failure to maintain effective controls over the custody and settlement services provided to us, a custodian’s inability to purchase or liquidate cryptocurrency holdings, and defaults on financial or performance obligations by a custodian, or counterparty financial institutions, could expose our customers and us to loss, and therefore significantly harm our business, financial performance, and reputation.
We have selected custodian partners, and may in the future select additional custodian partners, that are subject to regulatory oversight, capital requirements, maintenance of audit and compliance industry certifications, and cybersecurity procedures and policies. Nevertheless, operational disruptions at any such custodian, or such custodian’s failure to safeguard cryptocurrency holdings could result in losses of customer assets, expose us to customer claims, reduce consumer confidence and materially impact our operating results and our cryptocurrency product offerings.
Custodial arrangements to safeguard cryptocurrency assets involve unique risks and uncertainties in the event of a custodian’s bankruptcy. While other types of assets and some custodied cryptocurrencies have been deemed not to be part of the custodian’s bankruptcy estate under various regulatory regimes, bankruptcy courts have not yet definitively determined the appropriate treatment of custodial holdings of digital assets in a bankruptcy proceeding. In the event of a custodian’s bankruptcy, the lack of precedent and the highly fact-dependent nature of the determination could delay or preclude the return of custodied cryptocurrency assets to us or to our customers. Although we contractually require our custodians to segregate our customer assets and not commingle them with proprietary or other assets, we cannot be certain that these contractual obligations, even if duly observed by a custodian, will be effective in preventing such assets from being treated as part of the custodian’s estate under bankruptcy or other insolvency law. In that event, our claim on behalf of such customers against a custodian’s estate for our customers’ cryptocurrency assets could be treated as a general unsecured claim against the custodian, in which case our customers could seek to hold us liable for any resulting losses.
In addition, our cryptocurrency product offerings could have the effect of heightening or exacerbating many of the risk factors described in this “Risk Factors” section.
Lending Regulation
We hold a number of U.S. state lending licenses for our U.S. consumer short-term installment loan product, which is subject to federal and state laws governing consumer credit and debt collection. While the consumer short-term installment loan products that we offer outside the U.S. are generally exempt from primary consumer credit legislation, certain consumer lending laws, consumer protection or banking transparency regulations continue to apply to these products. Increased global regulatory focus on short-term installment products and consumer credit more broadly could result in laws or regulations requiring changes to our policies, procedures, operations, and product offerings, and restrict or limit our ability to offer credit products, and we could be subject to additional compliance and licensure requirements, enforcement action, fines, and litigation if we are found to violate any aspects of applicable law or regulations.
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We are regularly subject to general litigation, regulatory scrutiny, and government inquiries.
We are regularly subject to claims, individual and class action lawsuits, arbitration proceedings, government and regulatory investigations, inquiries, actions or requests, and other proceedings alleging violations of laws, rules, and regulations with respect to competition, antitrust, intellectual property, privacy, data protection, information security, anti-money laundering, counter-terrorist financing, sanctions, anti-bribery, anti-corruption, consumer protection (including unfair, deceptive, or abusive acts or practices), the terms of our customer agreements, fraud, accessibility, securities, tax, labor and employment, commercial disputes, services, charitable fundraising, contract disputes, escheatment of unclaimed or abandoned property, product liability, use of our services for illegal purposes, the matters described in “Note 13—Commitments and Contingencies—Litigation and Regulatory Matters—General Matters” to our consolidated financial statements, and other matters. The number and significance of these disputes and inquiries is expected to continue to increase as our products, services, and business expand in complexity, scale, scope, and geographic reach, including through acquisitions of businesses and technology. Investigations and legal proceedings are inherently uncertain, expensive and disruptive to our operations, and could result in substantial judgments, fines, penalties or settlements, negative publicity, substantial diversion of management’s time and effort, reputational harm, criminal sanctions, or orders that prevent or limit us from offering certain products or services; require us to change our business practices in costly ways, develop non-infringing or otherwise altered products or technologies, or pay substantial royalty or licensing fees; or delay or preclude planned transactions or product launches or improvements. Determining legal reserves or possible losses from such matters involves significant estimates and judgments and may not reflect the full range of uncertainties and unpredictable outcomes. We may be exposed to losses in excess of the amount recorded, and such amounts could be material. If any of our estimates and assumptions change or prove to have been incorrect, this could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position, results of operations, or cash flows.
BUSINESS AND OPERATIONS RISKS
Changes to payment card networks or bank fees, rules, or practices could harm our business.
To process certain transactions, we must comply with applicable payment card, bank or other network (collectively, “network”) rules. The rules govern all aspects of a transaction on the networks, including fees and other practices. From time to time, the networks have increased the fees and assessments that they charge for transactions that access their networks. Certain networks have also imposed special fees or assessments for transactions that are executed through a digital wallet such as the one that PayPal offers. Our payment processors may have the right to pass any increases in fees and assessments on to us and to increase their own fees for processing. Any increase in interchange fees, special fees, or assessments for transactions that we pay to the networks or our payment processors could make our pricing less competitive, increase our operating costs, and reduce our operating income, which could materially harm our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
In some jurisdictions, government regulations have required payment card networks to reduce or cap interchange fees. Any changes in interchange fee rates or limitations, or their applicability to PayPal, could adversely affect our competitive position against payment card service providers and the revenue we earn from our branded card programs, require us to change our business practices, and harm our business.
We may also be subject to fines and other penalties assessed by networks resulting from any rule violations by us or our merchants. The networks set and interpret their rules and have alleged from time to time that various aspects of our business model violate these rules or our agreements with the networks. Such allegations may result in significant fines, penalties, damages, or other liabilities, adversely impact benefits to us under the agreements, or require changes in our business practices that may be costly and adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. The network rules may also increase the cost of, impose restrictions on, or otherwise impact the development of, our products which may negatively affect product deployment and adoption. The networks could adopt new operating rules or interpret or re-interpret existing rules that we or our payment processors might find difficult or impractical to follow, or costly to implement, which could require us to make significant changes to our products, increase our operational costs, and negatively impact our business. If we become unable or limited in our ability to accept certain payment types such as debit or credit cards, our business would be materially and adversely affected.
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Our credit products expose us to additional risks.
We offer credit products to a wide range of consumers and merchants in the U.S. and various international markets. The financial success of these products depends largely on the effective management of related risk. The credit decision-making process for our consumer credit products uses proprietary methodologies and credit algorithms and other analytical techniques designed to analyze the credit risk of specific consumers based on, among other factors, their past purchase and transaction history with PayPal or Venmo and their credit scores. Similarly, proprietary risk models and other indicators are applied to assess merchants who desire to use our merchant financing offerings to help predict their ability to repay. These risk models may not accurately predict the creditworthiness of a consumer or merchant due to inaccurate assumptions, including those related to the particular consumer or merchant, market conditions, economic environment, or limited transaction history or other data. The accuracy of these risk models and the ability to manage credit risk related to our credit products may also be affected by legal or regulatory requirements, changes in consumer behavior, changes in the economic environment, issuing bank policies, and other factors.
We generally rely on the activities and charters of unaffiliated financial institutions to provide PayPal and Venmo branded consumer credit and merchant financing offerings to our U.S. customers. As a service provider to these unaffiliated financial institutions, which are federally supervised U.S. financial institutions, we are subject from time to time to examination by their federal banking regulators. In the event of any termination or interruption in a partner bank’s ability or willingness to lend, our ability to offer consumer credit and merchant financing products could be interrupted or limited, which could materially and adversely affect our business. We may be unable to reach a similar arrangement with another unaffiliated financial institution on favorable terms or at all. Obtaining and maintaining the lending licenses required for us to originate such loans ourselves would be a costly, time-consuming and uncertain process, and would subject us to additional laws and regulatory requirements, which could significantly increase our costs and compliance obligations and require us to change our business practices.
We are subject to the risk that account holders who use our credit products will default on their payment obligations. The non-payment rate among account holders may increase due to, among other factors, changes to underwriting standards, risk models not accurately predicting the creditworthiness of a user, worsening economic conditions, such as a recession or government austerity programs, increases in prevailing interest rates, and high unemployment rates. Account holders who miss payments often fail to repay their loans, and account holders who file for protection under the bankruptcy laws generally do not repay their loans. Any deterioration in the performance of loans facilitated through our platform or unexpected losses on such loans may increase the risk of potential charge-offs, increase our allowance for loans and interest receivable, negatively impact our revenue share arrangement with an independent chartered financial institution with respect to our U.S. consumer credit product, and materially and adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations .
We currently purchase receivables related to our U.S. PayPal-branded merchant financing offerings and certain U.S. consumer installment loan products and extend credit for our consumer and merchant products outside the U.S. through our international subsidiaries. In June 2023, we entered into a multi-year agreement to sell up to €40 billion of U.K. and European buy now, pay later (“BNPL”) loan receivables originated by PayPal (Europe), consisting of the sale of a substantial majority of the U.K. and European BNPL loan portfolio held on PayPal (Europe)’s balance sheet at the closing of the transaction and a forward-flow arrangement for the sale of future originations of eligible loans. The closing of the transaction and the sale of future receivables are subject to certain conditions. If these conditions are not satisfied or waived or if the parties are unable to fulfill their obligations under these arrangements, the sale of these receivables could be delayed or not take place at all and we may not realize the expected benefits of this arrangement.
From time to time, we may consider other third-party sources of funding (including asset sales, warehouse facilities, forward-flow arrangements, securitizations, partnerships or other funding structures) for our credit portfolio or other receivables. The availability of such third-party funding is subject to a number of factors, including economic conditions and interest rates, and there can be no assurance that any such funding arrangements can be obtained on favorable terms or at all. If we are unable to fund our credit products or the purchase of the receivables related to our credit products and offerings adequately or in a cost-effective manner, the growth of our credit products and our results of operations and financial condition could be materially and adversely impacted.
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Global and regional economic conditions could harm our business.
Adverse global and regional economic conditions such as turmoil affecting the banking system or financial markets, including, but not limited to, tightening in the credit markets, extreme volatility or distress in the financial markets (including the fixed income, credit, currency, equity, and commodity markets), higher unemployment, high consumer debt levels, recessionary or inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, reduced consumer confidence or economic activity, government fiscal, monetary and tax policies, U.S. and international trade relationships, agreements, treaties, tariffs and restrictive actions, the inability of a government to enact a budget in a fiscal year, government shutdowns, government austerity programs, and other negative financial news or macroeconomic developments could have a material adverse impact on the demand for our products and services, including a reduction in the volume and size of transactions on our payments platform. Additionally, any inability to access the capital markets when needed due to volatility or illiquidity in the markets or increased regulatory liquidity and capital requirements may strain our liquidity position. Such conditions may also expose us to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates or interest rates that could materially and adversely affect our financial results.
Brexit: The U.K.’s departure from the EU could harm our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
Following the departure of the U.K. from the EU and the EEA on January 31, 2020 (commonly referred to as “Brexit”) and the expiration of the transition period on December 31, 2020, there continues to be uncertainty over the practical consequences of Brexit, including the potential for greater restrictions on the supply and availability of goods and services between the U.K. and EEA region, and a general deterioration in consumer sentiment and credit conditions leading to overall negative economic growth and increased risk of merchant default.
The consequences of Brexit have brought legal uncertainty and increased complexity for financial services firms, which could continue as national laws and regulations in the U.K. differ from EU laws and regulations and additional authorization requirements come into effect. These developments have led and could lead in the future to additional regulatory costs and challenges for us. Specifically, PayPal currently operates in the U.K. within the scope of its passport permissions (as they existed at the end of the transition period) pursuant to the Temporary Permissions Regime pending the grant of new authorizations by the U.K. financial regulators. If we are unable to obtain the required authorizations before the expiry of the longstop dates set by the U.K. regulators under the Temporary Permissions Regime, our European operations could lose their ability to offer services within the U.K. market, or into the U.K. market on a cross-border basis. Our European operations may also be required to comply with legal and regulatory requirements in the U.K. that may be in addition to, or inconsistent with, those of the EEA, in each case, leading to increased complexity and costs.
If one or more of our counterparty financial institutions default on their financial or performance obligations to us or fail, we may incur significant losses.
We have significant amounts of cash, cash equivalents, receivables outstanding, and other investments on deposit or in accounts with banks or other financial institutions in the U.S. and international jurisdictions. As part of our foreign currency hedging activities, we regularly enter into transactions involving derivative financial instruments with various financial institutions. Certain banks and other financial institutions are also lenders under our credit facilities. We regularly monitor our concentration of, and exposure to, counterparty risk, and actively manage this exposure to mitigate the associated risk. Despite these efforts, we may be exposed to the risk of default on obligations by, or deteriorating operating results or financial condition or failure of, these counterparty financial institutions. If one of our counterparty financial institutions were to become insolvent, placed into receivership, or file for bankruptcy, our ability to recover losses incurred as a result of default or to access or recover our assets that are deposited, held in accounts with, or otherwise due from, such counterparty may be limited due to the insufficiency of the failed institutions’ estate to satisfy all claims in full or the applicable laws or regulations governing the insolvency, bankruptcy, or resolution proceedings. In the event of default on obligations by, or the failure of, one or more of these counterparties, we could incur significant losses, which could negatively impact our results of operations and financial condition.
If we are unable, or perceived as unable, to effectively manage customer funds, our business could be harmed.
We hold a substantial amount of funds belonging to our customers, including balances in customer accounts and funds being remitted to sellers of goods and services or recipients of peer-to-peer transactions. In certain jurisdictions where we operate, we are required to comply with applicable regulatory requirements with respect to customer balances. Our success is reliant on public confidence in our ability to effectively manage our customers’ balances and handle substantial transaction volumes and amounts of customer funds. Any failure to manage customer funds in compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, or any public loss of confidence in us or our ability to effectively manage customer balances, could lead customers to discontinue or reduce their use of our products or reduce customer balances held with us, which could significantly harm our business.
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