Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors
You should carefully consider the risk factors set forth in the “Risk Factors” section, Item 1A to Part I in our Annual Report on
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Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, which are hereby incorporated by reference. These important factors may cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by our forward-looking statements, including those contained in this report. Please also see the section entitled “Cautionary Statement Pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995” in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q. There have been no material changes to the risk factors we have disclosed in the “Risk Factors” section of our aforementioned Annual Report on Form 10-K, except as noted below.
Our inability to realize the expected recoveries included in our financial statements could adversely impact our liquidity, financial condition and results of operations and the value of our securities, including the Sitka Senior Secured Notes and Tier 2 Notes.
AAC is pursuing claims in litigation with respect to certain RMBS transactions that it insured. These claims are based on, among other things, representations with respect to the characteristics of the securitized loans, the absence of borrower misrepresentations in the underlying loan pools or other misconduct in the origination process, the compliance of loans with the prevailing underwriting policies, and compliance of the RMBS transaction counterparties with policies and procedures related to loan origination and securitization. In such cases, where contract claims are being pursued, the sponsor of the transaction is obligated to repurchase, cure or substitute collateral for any loan that breaches the representations and warranties, subject to the terms and conditions of the applicable contracts. However, generally the sponsors have not honored those obligations and have vigorously defended claims brought against them.
As of March 31, 2022, we have estimated RMBS R&W subrogation recoveries of $1,480 (net of reinsurance) included in our financial statements. These estimated recoveries are based on the contractual claims brought in the aforementioned litigations and represent a probability-weighted estimate of amounts we expect to recover under various possible scenarios. The estimated recoveries we have recorded do not represent the best or the worst possible outcomes with respect to any particular transaction or group of transactions.
There can be no assurance that AAC will be successful in prosecuting its claims in the RMBS litigations. The outcome of any litigation, including the RMBS litigations, is inherently unpredictable, including because of risks intrinsic in the adversarial nature of litigation. Motions made to the court, rulings and appeals - in the cases being prosecuted by AAC or in other relevant cases - could delay or otherwise impact any recovery by AAC. Moreover, rulings that may be adverse to AAC (in any of its RMBS litigations, as well as in other RMBS cases in which it is not a party, could adversely affect AAC’s ability to pursue its claims, or the amount or timing of any recovery, or negatively alter settlement dynamics with RMBS litigation defendants. For example, AAC expects the implications of the decision of the New York Court of Appeals’ decision in the case entitled U.S. Bank National Association v. DLJ Mortgage Capital, Inc. relating to Home Equity Asset Trust 2007-1, a residential mortgage-backed securities trust ("HEAT"), to be the subject of additional arguments, decisions and appeals in certain of its RMBS
litigations as well as in unrelated cases. Actions or decisions by trial or appellate courts regarding the implications of HEAT may significantly impact the manner in which AAC presents its case, AAC's ultimate recoveries, or the timing of trials or pre-trial procedures, filings or actions.
Due to the foregoing factors, any litigation award or settlement may be for an amount less than the amount necessary (even when combined with other pledged collateral) to pay the Sitka Senior Secured Notes or the Tier 2 Notes, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations. Such an award or settlement would also impair AAC’s ability to repay its outstanding surplus notes, on a timely basis or at all. In the event that AAC is unable to satisfy its obligations with respect to the Sitka Senior Secured Notes or the Tier 2 Notes, holders will have the right to foreclose on any available collateral and to sue AAC for failure to make required payments; however, there can be no assurance that the sale of collateral will produce proceeds in an amount sufficient to pay any or all amounts due on the Sitka Senior Secured Notes or the Tier 2 Notes, as the case may be, or that holders will be successful in any litigation seeking payments from AAC.
Even if AAC were to recover the amount of estimated RMBS R&W subrogation recoveries of $1,480 (net of reinsurance) included in our financial statements and pay off or cause to be paid off the Sitka Senior Secured Notes and the Tier 2 Notes (from litigation recoveries or other sources), AAC may still be unable to deliver value to AFG, through dividends or otherwise. In such a scenario, AAC may not have sufficient capital and surplus, or may not be permitted by OCI, to pay off its surplus notes or a substantial portion of them, whether immediately following the resolution of the RMBS litigations or within a reasonable timeframe thereafter. If the surplus notes or a substantial portion of them were to remain outstanding for a significant period of time after the resolution of the RMBS litigations, AAC's obligation to pay interest on the surplus notes would continue to grow, which would diminish AAC's financial flexibility and reduce the likelihood that AAC will be able to pay dividends or otherwise bring value to AFG.
Additionally, while AAC may pursue settlement negotiations, there can be no assurance that any settlement negotiations will materialize or that any settlement agreement can be reached on terms acceptable to AAC, or at all. Depending on the length of time required to resolve these litigations, either through settlement or at trial, AAC could incur greater litigation expenses than currently projected. If a case is brought to trial, AAC’s ultimate recovery would be subject to the additional risks inherent in any trial, including adverse findings or determinations by the trier of fact or the court, which could materially adversely impact the value of our securities, including the Sitka Senior Secured Notes and the Tier 2 Notes.
Any litigation award is subject to risks of recovery, including that a defendant is unable to pay a judgment that AAC may obtain in litigation. In some instances, AAC also has claims against a parent or an acquirer of the counterparty. However, AAC may not be successful in enforcing its claims against any successor entity.
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The RMBS litigations could also be adversely affected if AAC does not have sufficient resources to actively prosecute its claims or becomes subject to rehabilitation, liquidation, conservation or dissolution, or otherwise impaired by actions of OCI.
Our ability to realize the estimated RMBS R&W subrogation recoveries included in our financial statements and the timing of the recoveries, if any, is subject to significant uncertainty, including the risks described above and uncertainties inherent in the assumptions used in estimating such recoveries. The amount of these subrogation recoveries is significant and if we were unable to recover all such amounts, our stockholders’ equity as of March 31, 2022, would decrease from $974.4 to $(501.6).
We expect to recover material amounts of claims payments through remediation measures, including the litigation described above, as well as through cash flows in the securitization structures of transactions that AAC insures. Realization of such expected recoveries is subject to various risks and uncertainties, including the rights and defenses of other parties with interests that conflict with AAC’s interests, the performance of the collateral and assets backing the obligations that AAC insures, and the performance of servicers involved in securitizations in which AAC participates as insurer. Additionally, our ability to realize recoveries in insured transactions may be impaired if the continuing orders of the Rehabilitation Court are not effective.
Adverse developments with respect to any of the factors described above may cause our recoveries to fall below expectations, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, including our capital and liquidity, and may result in adverse consequences such as impairing the ability of AAC to honor its financial obligations, particularly its outstanding debt and preferred stock obligations; the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC; eliminating or reducing the possibility of AAC delivering value to AFG, through dividends or otherwise; diminished business prospects due to third party concerns about our ability to recover losses; and a significant drop in the value of securities issued or insured by AFG or AAC, including the Sitka Senior Secured Notes and the Tier 2 Notes.
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